Boat length NOT increasing over the decades

[poiu]

As to the question about boat lengths of circumnavigators not increasing, I am not sure it is correct. Jimmy Cornell wrote an article analysing just very similar questions, which was published in Yachting Monthly a couple of years ago based on his 5 yearly reports. He looked at ARC entrants, the arrivals records in key stop offs such as Panama, Marquesas, Horta etc. His conclusion was that sizes were increasing. The latest report on the average long distance cruiser is 45.3’. It is more in the Pacific, less a bit in the Atlantic.

One of his web articles here you may like:
https://cornellsailing.com/2017/08/j...-the-boats-go/

[Dave Lochner]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

The answer really is 42

Clearly a myth that the mice are perpertrating.

[Paul Kelly]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Your observation about the larger percentage of cruisers crossing oceans in the past vs today is fascinating. I suspect you’re right, but I’d love to see hard numbers on it. If it is the case, why do you think that is?

Long distance cruising is now a recognised leisure activity as against a strictly merchant activity. This is because people are living longer and are healthier in their old age as well (especially as hard manual jobs decline). They are wealthier and have more time. And if they are not wealthier, then cheap finance has, at times, been available. They want adventure. But at the same time they are not quite as hardy as their forefathers, so they want adventure with convenience and creature comforts. At the same time technology has helped yacht designers fashion bigger vessels and yacht builders to make them. I've heard that the introduction of the spreadsheet cut ship design down from three weeks (with a slide rule) to three days or less with a spreadsheet for the essential calculations. So both the ability to build larger, quicker and at lower cost is there as is the capacity to buy and the time to do long journeys.

Sorry, no hard supporting data on any of this. But it seems a plausible line or argument.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by poiu

As to the question about boat lengths of circumnavigators not increasing, I am not sure it is correct. Jimmy Cornell wrote an article analysing just very similar questions, which was published in Yachting Monthly a couple of years ago. He looked at ARC entrants, the arrivals records in key stop offs such as Panama, Marquesas, Horta etc. His conclusion was that sizes were increasing.

Good idea. I’ll look up ARC data. Do they keep their historic records online?? And thanks for the link. Awesome!!!

Again, I fully expected to find the same: that boat lengths were increasing. But this is not what the Latitudes data shows. THAT’s why I thought it was so interesting, and worthy of discussion. It seems to go against common sense.

… but as a science guy, I’ve learned that “common sense” is sometimes wrong.

[Olddan1943]

Wanna see your boat shrink? Buy it and start putting your "stuff" onboard. It will lose anywhere between 3 and 6 ft in length.

[boatpoker]

The data presented may be accurate but the fields drawn from are very narrow.

Pulling the data from my 4586 surveys the vast majority of which were performed on the north shore of Lake Ontario my average size surveyed goes from 32' (60% power) 25yrs ago to 46' (45% power) last summer.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by boatpoker

The data presented may be accurate but the fields drawn from are very narrow.

Pulling the data from my 4586 surveys the vast majority of which were performed on the north shore of Lake Ontario my average size surveyed goes from 32' (60% power) 25yrs ago to 46' (45% power) last summer.

Now there’s useful good data .

BP, can you do any analysis on this? What kind of distribution is it? Mean vs median?

How much of this change is self-selected (you choosing clients, or clients choosing you)? The decrease in power seems counter-intuitive to me … I’ve thought sail was on the decline.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by poiu

...One of his web articles here you may like:
https://cornellsailing.com/2017/08/j...-the-boats-go/

That’s a good read Poiu. I recommend it to everyone.

So… according to Cornell’s analysis, there are now FEWER international cruisers and circumnavigators compared to his previous survey of 2010. And he suggests this may be a definite downward trend. Although he say (without giving specifics) that there is an upward trend towards more regional cruising.

Interesting…

I’ve speculated that there will be a decline in cruising as an activity as the Boomers age out. In addition, the economic stagnation of the upcoming generations (Gen-X and Millennial) make cruising more financially challenging for an increasing percentage of people. For these two reasons, I’ve expected to see a decline in numbers out there.

What’s interesting is that Cornell points to increasing security issues as a cause. And that includes both human (piracy, crime, government bureaucracy) as well as Nature; specifically climate change.

Lots of fun...

[boatpoker]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Now there’s useful good data .

BP, can you do any analysis on this? What kind of distribution is it? Mean vs median?

How much of this change is self-selected (you choosing clients, or clients choosing you)? The decrease in power seems counter-intuitive to me … I’ve thought sail was on the decline.

My surveys are in a database so I can pull it out if I had. I just don't feel like it I'm sitting here in Lucaya with a cold beer waiting for the wind to go down

Off the cuff ... there is certainly some "clients choosing me" affecting those numbers. I do agree the decrease in power is counterintuitive but if I look around my home club I see a small increase in powerboats. Out of 450 slips there are now 45% power compared to 43% about 10 years ago.

I don't think any overall accurate numbers can be arrived at with the spectrum we are dealing with, without a huge investment that on one would be willing to make.

[Cadence]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Fully agree Jim. This is specifically North American west coast circumnavigators. I would love to get my hands on credible datasets looking at average boat length of all boats. If anyone knows of such a dataset, please do let me know.

Still, assuming overall boat size has increased, then why has this not shown up in the circumnavigating group? Is it b/c 42 feet is the best size for small-crew circumnavigation? Perhaps... But another possibility is that average boat size has not increased anywhere. I find this latter option counter-intuitive, but that’s why these findings are so interesting (to me anyway).

Mike,
Possibly studying the boat market place would give a hint? How it can be studied, the math is beyond me, or beyond what I care to dig into.

[Olddan1943]

Nordhavn is a prime example. They have migrated to larger boats.
IMO and experience, the 46 was ideal boat length for long distance trawler cruising but, Nordhavn decided to stop building them.

[Mike OReilly]

Someone recommended looking at ARC data. I managed to extract 10 years of entry data from the public website (that’s all I could get). I just did a quick analysis, looking at LOA Average and Median for each year (in feet).

If there’s an upward trend, it’s very slight. But this is only 10 years worth of data.

Note, the median is always lower than the average, which says boat size tends to skew to the upper end, which is no big surprise really.

[robert sailor]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

That’s a good read Poiu. I recommend it to everyone.

So… according to Cornell’s analysis, there are now FEWER international cruisers and circumnavigators compared to his previous survey of 2010. And he suggests this may be a definite downward trend. Although he say (without giving specifics) that there is an upward trend towards more regional cruising.

Interesting…

I’ve speculated that there will be a decline in cruising as an activity as the Boomers age out. In addition, the economic stagnation of the upcoming generations (Gen-X and Millennial) make cruising more financially challenging for an increasing percentage of people. For these two reasons, I’ve expected to see a decline in numbers out there.

What’s interesting is that Cornell points to increasing security issues as a cause. And that includes both human (piracy, crime, government bureaucracy) as well as Nature; specifically climate change.

Lots of fun...

Doesn't surprise me one bit. Younger people would rather spend their day hugging their IPhones and having virtual experiences and older people on average just don't have enough spirit to start offshore voyages, way too scarey. These days people want their comfort...and why not. I think you'll find those numbers will continue to drop although I think local sailing will still be popular.

[Olddan1943]

Talk about a drop in boat building, do you remember what Jimmy Carter did to the boating industry?

[toddster8]

Data, you say? Just happened to notice a nooz link today that lead me to this site for the UW Sea Grant boating outreach department. It's only one state, and ten years of data, but they've got data posted for annual sales, including propulsion type and boat length, and a spreadsheet with data for all registered boats in the state. Apparently someone is actually paid to keep track of these trends.
The bad news is, as you might have noticed, jet skis are taking over the world. From the brief summary, it sounds as if once the vermin are accounted for, larger boats are gradually winning out. I didn't look at any raw data though.

I wonder of other Sea Grant colleges compile similar statistics?