Miami to St Thomas in late Nov. How bad is it?

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by Dsanduril

One other stray thought, pay attention to the weather forecasts and late season hurricanes. I know, most will scoff, but have a look at Kate in 1985 (I had an up close personal look from the inside on the deck of a sailboat). She reached hurricane intensity in the southern Bahamas on Nov. 16 and peak intensity (Category III) on Nov. 20 between Key West and Cuba. Not wanting to be a scaremonger, Kate was the latest hurricane to ever make landfall in the US, just a reminder that even this late in the year we can be on the tail end of the season.

Sea surface anomaly charts for the current period show the northern Caribbean/tropical Atlantic as being 2-3 degrees warmer than typical, which is similar to the conditions that spawned Kate. Not a meteorologist, and don't pretend to be one, just think people headed down this route ought to have eyes open and pay attention to signs of abnormal activity.

Hurricane Kate (1985) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

As for the Providence Channel route, we had a reasonable trip. Got out in the middle of the Stream, made some northing, then were able to hold port tack close-hauled through most of the passage. As others have said here, what's wrong with a little upwind work? Not everyone's cup of tea, which is why I don't give it a wholehearted recommendation, but I'd do it again if the weather looked right. On the other hand, lots of nice places to stop in the Bahamas if you have time and want to break up the trip a little.

Excellent reminder about the late season hurricanes. In 2005 there was a hurricane in Dec and a tropical storm in Jan. Neither made landfall but could have been a problem for sailors.

Regarding the route to the VI, most of the trips I made east from south Florida were in 34-36' boats. The last trip in the 34' the winds were pretty much on the nose and a steady 25 kts with gusts a bit more the trip got a bit tiring after a few days. Going I-65 you have no where to stop and catch your breath. At least going through the Bahamas you have plenty of places to stop for a day or two. For the OP in a 50' boat the offshore route might be less daunting.

[skipmac]

And speaking of hurricanes. News tonight reported a tropical disturbance developing about 200 miles north of Puerto Rico. Very low probability of this developing into a depression.