Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Dockhead]

Small report on what's going on in Denmark --


Schools to reopen tomorrow. Last night I got a new neighbor in the harbor, a beautiful X Yacht. The owner is a worker from Copenhagen Airport who has been laid off (with full pay) until 8 June. He's spending the time cruising with his daughter. His wife is an intensive care nurse in one Copenhagen hospital. She says everything pretty quiet there with just a few cases. They are planning to cruise Swedish waters as usual this summer, if the wife will get vacation as normal.

[conachair]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Small report on what's going on in Denmark --


Schools to reopen tomorrow. Last night I got a new neighbor in the harbor, a beautiful X Yacht. The owner is a worker from Copenhagen Airport who has been laid off (with full pay) until 8 June. He's spending the time cruising with his daughter. His wife is an intensive care nurse in one Copenhagen hospital. She says everything pretty quiet there with just a few cases. They are planning to cruise Swedish waters as usual this summer, if the wife will get vacation as normal.

Worth noting though opening up a little they've said its very cautious and slow like walking a tightrope, too quick with the risk of a rise in infections they'll have to close down again.

[GordMay]

An alternative opinion piece:
Sweden's Relaxed Approach to the Coronavirus Could Already Be Backfiring
“... Sweden has a relatively high case fatality rate: as of April 8, 7.68% of the Swedes who have tested positive for COVID-19 have died of the virus. Neighboring countries, like Norway and Denmark, have case fatality rates of 1.46% and 3.85% respectively. (The U.S. case fatality rate is 3.21%.) While Sweden’s elevated case fatality rate could be a result of its low testing rates compared to its neighbors, experts say Sweden’s laissez-faire approach could also be to blame ...
... Nevertheless, Carina King, an infectious diseases epidemiologist, says Sweden could be a rare case where a nationwide lockdown may not be necessary. “Sweden is unique,” she says. “It doesn’t have many intergenerational households. It is a country where you could have a mixed approach.” ...
... Söderberg-Nauclér (head doctor at a major hospital) notes that, based on the modeling she’s seen, the healthcare system in Sweden will collapse if stricter measures are not adopted immediately. “But I will not give up the fight until the government shows us evidence for their strategy.” ...
... While experts may be taking issue with the government’s approach, many Swedes seem to be in favor of it. Opinion polls show that citizens trust the Public Health Authority, with 48% saying they have very high or high confidence in the institution ...
... And Swedes have above-average confidence in their politicians, who in turn, trust citizens to follow their advice ...”
More ➥ https://time.com/5817412/sweden-coro...=pocket-newtab

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by conachair

Worth noting though opening up a little they've said its very cautious and slow like walking a tightrope, too quick with the risk of a rise in infections they'll have to close down again.

Indeed. We're in pretty uncharted territory here, so all these countries, not excluding Sweden, are watching every hour to see how this develops, and to adapt policies as necessary.



I'm hoping it will be OK and things can get back closer to normal. No one knows for sure if summer weather will help slow down the bug, but we're hoping that will give an additional benefit. If restaurants are shut for another month, half or more of restrauteurs will be bankrupt. Tightrope is a good way to describe it.



Unfortunately just lifting the restrictions may not by itself get economies working again. People are social distancing even without being required to -- restaurants are going bankrupt in Sweden, too, although they are not required to close. This is a hell of a thing we are living through.

[Dockhead]

Great news from Denmark:








The numbers of those hospitalized, in intensive care, and on respirators has fallen sharply.


Tomorrow schools open up again, and the government is discussing lifting most restrictions, allowing restaurants to open so long as half of tables are kept empty, increasing the recommended number of people allowed in any given gathering from 10 to 50.


This is great! And all accomplished without any hard lockdown, through mostly voluntary measures with NO stay-at-home order, NO mandatory closing of "non-essential" businesses.


Prospects for normal cruising up here getting better by the day!

[dannc]

Originally Posted by Viking Sailor

I have taken the liberty to add the mortality rate (dead/cases) to Dockhead's table. Also, added the USA for reference.

Country               Dead*  Cases*  Mortality
----------------------------------------------
Spain                  342    3359    10.18%
Italy                  312    2441    12.58%
Belgium                260    2301    11.30%
France                 202    1913    10.56%
Netherlands            147    1348    10.90%
UK                     132    1086    12.15%
Switzerland            116    2937     3.95%
Luxembourg              86    5149     1.67%
Sweden                  86     959     8.97%
USA                     67    1682     3.96%
Ireland                 58    1638     3.54%
Portugal                48    1517     3.16%
Denmark                 43    1005     4.28%
Germany                 32    1434     2.23%
Norway                  21    1162     1.80%
Finland                  9     500     1.80%

                     * = per-million

Just quoting you since these are easy to read numbers.

The problem with discussion about how many people have, or had, the virus is that testing is limited in many, if not most, countries. Certainly, it is problematic to compare one country against another since there are so many variables.

Since we don't really know how many people have had the virus, the death rate is fictional. It is a rough best guess when looking at the numbers by countries. I have read repeatedly, that the upper range of how many people have had the virus is 10. If one divides the above death rates by 10, the rate is dramatically reduced. The death rate is important because it is one of the key factors, along with hospitalizations, driving the lock decisions.

Sweden has a population of a bit more than 10 million and has had 1,000 deaths. The Netherlands had a population of 17 million and is almost at 3,000 deaths and they think the real deaths could be double what they know.

The Netherlands locked down a bit later than my state did in the US. Are they suffering this huge number of deaths are a result? Possibly. But who really knows.

My state, NC, has a bit more than 10 million people so we are similar to Sweden. We have been on a strict lock down since the middle of March. A full month at this point. We have had 114 deaths so far. The guestimate was that yesterday we would have had 209 death, with a range of 123-370. I have not heard anything to lead me to believe that NC death rates are under reported. Given that there is a concern that doctors offices will go out of business, the number of cases in the hospitals is very low, and at least one hospital has laid off 300 employees, I think NC death rates are accurate. As an aside, I had a relative who had to go the hospital in another state. He was the only person in the ER and had 5 nurses attending him because they had nothing else to do. This is good and bad.

Unfortunately, there have been reports in the last few days that the virus had gotten into a few nursing homes so the NC death rate is likely to sharply increase.

Comparing Sweden and the Netherlands is interesting. The Netherlands went into a pretty strict lock down, yet has far more dead, at least 3,000ish, with a much larger population, yet Sweden, with a smaller population, and a limited lock down, has had much fewer deaths. Sweden would have to have a much higher number of deaths to be comparable to NL. BUT, the Netherlands thinks they are under counting deaths by half! Is Sweden really that bad off?

Herd immunity might occur with 40-50% of the population being exposed to the virus. Most likely it will take 80-90% exposure for herd immunity. The world's economy has taken a huge hit from this virus and the effects will linger for years even if the virus is some how eliminated in a few months. The debt taken on by governments is huge and will take years to removed. The longer the lock down takes, the worst this will be. Even if the virus was gone in a few months, how quickly will travel, restaurants, movies, sports, etc take to get back on their feet?

The measure of which approach works best is how bad the economy of a given country suffered, the number of maimed people, and the number who have died. Since we are still in the midst of this disaster, we don't really know which approach was best.

For all intents and purposes, everyone is going to have to be exposed, either from a non existent vaccine, or by just getting the virus, to have this end. That fact leads to very difficult choices for decision makers.

Later,
Dan

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Great news from Denmark ...
... allowing restaurants to open so long as half of tables are kept empty, ...
... Prospects for normal cruising up here getting better by the day!

A restaurant, that never exceeds half full, might (might not) lose as much money, as a fully closed restaurant.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by GordMay

A restaurant, that never exceeds half full, might (might not) lose as much money, as a fully closed restaurant.

Indeed. God help the world's restaurateurs.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by GordMay

An alternative opinion piece:
Sweden's Relaxed Approach to the Coronavirus Could Already Be Backfiring
“... Sweden has a relatively high case fatality rate: as of April 8, 7.68% of the Swedes who have tested positive for COVID-19 have died of the virus. Neighboring countries, like Norway and Denmark, have case fatality rates of 1.46% and 3.85% respectively. (The U.S. case fatality rate is 3.21%.) While Sweden’s elevated case fatality rate could be a result of its low testing rates compared to its neighbors, experts say Sweden’s laissez-faire approach could also be to blame ...
... Nevertheless, Carina King, an infectious diseases epidemiologist, says Sweden could be a rare case where a nationwide lockdown may not be necessary. “Sweden is unique,” she says. “It doesn’t have many intergenerational households. It is a country where you could have a mixed approach.” ...
... Söderberg-Nauclér (head doctor at a major hospital) notes that, based on the modeling she’s seen, the healthcare system in Sweden will collapse if stricter measures are not adopted immediately. “But I will not give up the fight until the government shows us evidence for their strategy.” ...
... While experts may be taking issue with the government’s approach, many Swedes seem to be in favor of it. Opinion polls show that citizens trust the Public Health Authority, with 48% saying they have very high or high confidence in the institution ...
... And Swedes have above-average confidence in their politicians, who in turn, trust citizens to follow their advice ...”
More ➥ https://time.com/5817412/sweden-coro...=pocket-newtab

As we've discussed, there's controversy in Sweden like there is everywhere. It's pretty understandable that there should be controvery, considering how little we understand.

But the numbers in Sweden continue looking not so bad.

Adding today's new cases, the average new cases growth factor for the month of April so far is around 0. There were fewer new cases each of the last three days than there were any of the first three days of the month. Looking more and more like Sweden has reached the inflection point. Although deaths, since they lag new cases by a couple of weeks, will likely continue to increase. Three days is not long enough to say anything much, but FWIW few deaths in Sweden the last three days - 17, 12, and 20.

132, 94 and 86 in the Netherlands, as a comparison.

There are 525 people in intensive care with COVID-19 in Sweden, 75% with pre-existing conditions, which has increased slowly during the last week, with new admittances falling recently:



From this, you can see that also the curve of daily deaths per million has turned down in Sweden, and at a point where total deaths per million is still low:



If Sweden's policy is "backfiring", you sure can't see it in the numbers.

A very good article: https://unherd.com/2020/04/jury-stil...irus-strategy/

[Viking Sailor]

An interesting article about the validity of cv19 data:


https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/06/healt...nvs/index.html

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

A very good article: https://unherd.com/2020/04/jury-stil...irus-strategy/

And from a publication I've never heard of, but seemingly aptly named "Unherd.com". Given all the unknowns only time will tell, but I fear much of what's been so highly publicized, and dutifully followed by the herds, is motivated by partisanship rather than facts and science. I hope I'm wrong.

In my opinion anyway, a particularly apt paragraph from the article, and one that applies well beyond Britain of course:

"That’s why it is important that some of the simplistic thinking surrounding this crisis needs to be challenged. If the only moral and virtuous policy is to minimise Covid deaths at all costs, as parts of the media imply with the endless game of ‘look how badly Britain is doing compared to X other country’, there can be no argument for releasing any part of the national shutdown at any point. The refrain at every point will be the same: why take a risk with people’s lives? And the Government will find itself backed into a corner."

[TeddyDiver]

Another interesting point of view https://medium.com/@ali_razavian/cov...e-95bd4e84843b If the author is right there's not much any lockdowns, in the western style anyway, can do except how well the infections are kept away from elderly which are the most propable victims of this virus.. Anyway something to think about.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

Another interesting point of view https://medium.com/@ali_razavian/cov...e-95bd4e84843b If the author is right there's not much any lockdowns, in the western style anyway, can do except how well the infections are kept away from elderly which are the most propable victims of this virus.. Anyway something to think about.

It's a quite plausible view in my opinion.


I think we know that the total cases are underreported. Fascinating approach to extrapolate from Iceland. Of course more cases than the numbers say affects all the other data, ESPECIALLY the rate of infection. I hate to say it because of all the deaths predicted here, but to me this seems like a rather optimistic view -- everything is over by the end of April. Might not be the worst of different possible outcomes.

[DeepFrz]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

It's a quite plausible view in my opinion.


I think we know that the total cases are underreported. Fascinating approach to extrapolate from Iceland. Of course more cases than the numbers say affects all the other data, ESPECIALLY the rate of infection. I hate to say it because of all the deaths predicted here, but to me this seems like a rather optimistic view -- everything is over by the end of April. Might not be the worst of different possible outcomes.

Kind of a Stalinisk approach?

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by DeepFrz

Kind of a Stalinisk approach?

Just a mathematical approach to stats.. And a good reason to TEST a lot more to find out if we have handled this epidemic totally wrong.
If this is really the case the only reasonable approach would be to protect and isolate the risk groups totally and let the desease go over the rest of the population as fast as possible..