Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Greg K]

Originally Posted by Anders

You may be hoping for natural immunity but I'm not and I suspect there's a tiny minority hoping for natural immunity. From where do you get the idea that everyone wants to get sick and get natural immunity?

If it's as mild as seems to be reported from SA, I'll happily opt for natural immunity. Would you prefer boosters every six months for ever?

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Anders

You may be hoping for natural immunity but I'm not and I suspect there's a tiny minority hoping for natural immunity. From where do you get the idea that everyone wants to get sick and get natural immunity?

Obviously, nobody wants to get sick, and nobody wants to get infected. That's a given. But we may have no choice IF Omicron and subsequent variants prove so highly contagious that becoming infected is unavoidable. Think the common cold and many flus. The former is a coronavirus after all, the latter often thought to be a form of influenza derived from the Spanish Flu pandemic. Even with natural immunity, the scientific consensus favors also getting vaccinated as the best protection of either one on its own.

Most of the population can deal with high contagion but mild symptoms, as is being reported about Omicron thus far. The vulnerable will always be vulnerable, however, regardless. Of course, if Omicron proves to be highly contagious and produces severe illness, then we're screwed. So maybe not such a bad idea for the restrictions being imposed (and reimposed) until the experts are in a position to tell us more.

Nothing wrong with "hope" if it's rational and cognizant of other "what ifs."

[CatNewBee]

Well, live a healthy life.

Omicron seems to be the way out of the vaccine mandate terror for many young people, at least in countries recognizing the science of natural immunity after infection. This seems the better option with mild symtoms, as it gives way better and broader long term protection than the vaccines that focus on a specific spike shape.

Germany is gearing up to mandate vaccinations. The leaders have 50 million doses in stock that are in need for a muscle.

The sharp rise in infections came after socker events and carneval parties with 2G mandates (vaccinated or recovered) what where all exempt from testing. Only unvaccinated were tested, so of course the statistics are flaved. Also the claim that unvaccinated participate in 90% of infections is a claim, that does not show how many vaccinated participate in the same infections, probably in all of them where also vaccinated involved - it even suggests that 10% of all cases even have not a single unvaccinated in the event. Thid is how rhetoric contributes to twist the numbers. Over 80% of adults are fully vaccinated, the low numbers published to push for mandates result from counting newborns, toddlers and childs and unvaccinated teenagers not eligible yet for vaccinations.

Then we are very sad about all the deaths, but given the fact, that the officials ordered and stocked monoklonal antibodies for 400 million Euro, that are now expired and will be dumped, without giving them to the hospitals, or even training the ICU for early treatment and saving lifes, shows clearly it is all not about public health or humanity.

BioNTech CEO announced they may need to develop a new vaccine for Omicron, Moderna already is tweaking.

Italy, Austria, Greece, Germany see a lot of resistance, the society is becomming more violent. We will see in what dystopia we will end up.

The Nordic countries (and UK with the freedom day) seem to have done something right, using low viral load phases to spread the virus and get natural immunity to the community in the warm season, this can be seen in the low cases and death now. The vaccination rates to Germany are very similar, so the vaccines alone do not explain the differences.

Also this winter there are way more infections in Germany then last year, where 100% of the population was unvaccinated.

The hospital problems result from failed policies and incentives. First there were for new ICU beds, then they got incentives when over 75% were used, so hospitals decreased the capacity to meet the 75% usage, now the ICU beds are missed in the season. Then they started to mandate vaccines for doctors and nurses, so they left for other jobs. They have fought 2 years on the frontline, exposed themselves daily and their families in the evening to the viruses they were dealing with in the hospitals, they either had it or are immune in the meantime by the viral load they had been exposed to. It is silly to push vaccinations on them, they are the ones with first hand experience and judgment.

This shortages are policy driven, and not a fault of the patients.

This is incompetence and agenda driven.

[CatNewBee]

Zählweise kann Wert verfälschen - Inzidenz bei Ungeimpften viel höher? Daten aus Bayern lassen Zweifel daran aufkommen
https://focus.de/24486500

This is an article that shows how you can rig data for the desired outcome.

They count infected, they do not ask for vaccination status, unclear, incomplete data is counted as unvaccinated. This way you get your 90% unvaccinated rethoric, vaccination push and vaccines efficacy unquestioned.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

Let's see, I have most propably next month Atlantic crossing to east. Fingers crossed..

Cool! Do you have HF radio? We can set up a mid-Atlantic to mid-Atlantic sked if you do.

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Any rumor, as to Omicron's place of origin, will be totally unfounded {& spreading such is totally irresponsible], at this time.

However, there are now increasing signs that the variant was in circulation, in other countries, before South Africa’s health authorities alerted the world to its presence.
There are a growing number of cases being discovered, with no travel connection to the region, suggesting community transmission is taking place.
In Scotland, for example, 9 cases have been detected, that have been traced back to a “single private event” held on Nov. 20, and none of the individuals involved are believed to have any recent travel history to southern Africa.
Then, on Tuesday, the Netherlands said it had identified the omicron variant in two test samples, taken in the country between Nov. 19 and 23, before the variant was first reported by South Africa, and travel bans came into place.
On Tuesday, Germany also reported an omicron case in a man in Liepzig who had not been abroad, nor had contact with anyone who had been.

I am not a conspiracist by nature, but this does make me wonder whether the virus is purposely being seeded?

[CatNewBee]

Some more data about efficacy and infections in various groups

Ex-Divi-Chef warnt - Sprunghafter Anstieg der Impfdurchbrüche? So viele Geimpfte liegen auf der Intensivstation
https://focus.de/24418274

Hospitalizations in different groups. in the most vulnerable group there is 45 : 55% between vaccinated and unvaccinated. Younger folks are rarerly hospitalized

This are the figures for a 4 weeks timeframe (CW 40...43) in Germany
(80.000.000 population)

only 116 total cases below 18 years vacc/ unvacc 4: 112 , no ICU cases in this group.

Next group is more than half of the total population :

18...59yo vacc to unvacc - 700 : 2700 hospitalized, ICU 53 : 370

60+ yo vacc to unvacc - 2065 : 2529 hospitalized, ICU 257 : 489

So age is an issue and comorbidities. Unfortunately the adult group is too coarse to see the effects on middle-aged people. very likely the cases concentrate in the 50+ generation.

For the whole year there were 145185 registered clinically symptomatic vaccine escapes (covid cases in fully vaccinated with clinic symptoms). Asymptomatic are not reported, may be much higher.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

I am not a conspiracist by nature, but this does make me wonder whether the virus is purposely being seeded?

Yup, it's in the contrails.

Matt Lawson said so so it must be true
'Another prominent member of anti-vaccine and conspiracy circles, Matt Lawson, also complained on a livestream of feeling sick after attending the rallies. But it’s not COVID, he claims, but instead “the stuff they are spraying in the sky above Parliament”.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2021/12/01...-getting-sick/

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Greg K

In a word: Ivermectin. . .

No, sorry, in a word -- bad statistics.



India has only 337 official covid deaths per million, but 3500 (!) excess deaths, almost double the rate in the U.S. South Africa has 3800 excess dates per million, compared to 1498 official covid deaths. These are are some of the worst death rates in the world.


Numbers from ourworldindata.org

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

No, sorry, in a word -- bad statistics.



India has only 337 official covid deaths per million, but 3500 (!) excess deaths, almost double the rate in the U.S. South Africa has 3800 excess dates per million, compared to 1498 official covid deaths. These are are some of the worst death rates in the world.


Numbers from ourworldindata.org

Thanks for this Dockhead. Unless there's another plausible explanation for the excess death numbers (??), this answers my question from several pages ago. I should have remembered to look at this metric myself.

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Cool! Do you have HF radio? We can set up a mid-Atlantic to mid-Atlantic sked if you do.

Only sat phone to get weather grids and txt. That's the only long range coms. VHF of course. Not confirmed yet but it's 1st mate duty for me, free ride plus airline tickets, Le Marin - Las Palmas..

[Greg K]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

No, sorry, in a word -- bad statistics.



India has only 337 official covid deaths per million, but 3500 (!) excess deaths, almost double the rate in the U.S. South Africa has 3800 excess dates per million, compared to 1498 official covid deaths. These are are some of the worst death rates in the world.


Numbers from ourworldindata.org

Interesting point. Curious, how does that compare to the excess deaths in the UK?

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

Let's see, I have most propably next month Atlantic crossing to east. Fingers crossed..

North or South crossing.???

Opps.. Just seen your trip so up to the Azores then down to the Canaries.???

[Montanan]

Recalling early 2020 and the T.P. shortages, not expecting much if any improvement through 2022. This virus has a lot of course to run.

Happy holidays. Stay safe, stay healthy.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Greg K

Interesting point. Curious, how does that compare to the excess deaths in the UK?

Excess deaths in UK, like in most of Western and Northern Europe, are very close to official covid deaths, except Nordic countries which have LESS excess death than official covid deaths.

There is no such thing as perfect statistics, but in much of Europe they are pretty darned good.

North American excess death also lines up well with official covid deaths.

You can read about excess death statistics in Ourworldindata, Euromomo, Financial Times, and Economist, all of which have good trackers and charts, and good articles.