Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Seaworthy Lass]

REPORT FROM THE UK:

Deaths, although still very low, have been starting to creep up a little in the UK following the surge in cases (Graph 1).

The tentative good news is that the rising number of detected cases associated with the Delta variant has not only plateaued, but has started to drop (graphs 2 & 3). In Scotland this has been dropping steadily for 3 weeks now.

Hopefully this is not just a small blip and that the predicted peak of 100,000 cases per day in the UK will not eventuate. Despite the much lower level of hospitalisations per case count following the vaccination program, there is still an association, so the decrease in cases over this last week is encouraging.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...inations-today

For those who believe vaccination has no effect on death rate with COVID-19, these graph are compelling evidence that this is not the case. This stark dissociation between cases and deaths is occurring in the UK with 55% of the population fully vaccinated, covering a high percentage of those at most risk.

[boatman61]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/med...?ocid=msedgntp

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

REPORT FROM THE UK:

Deaths, although still very low, have been starting to creep up a little in the UK following the surge in cases (Graph 1).

The tentative good news is that the rising number of detected cases associated with the Delta variant has not only plateaued, but has started to drop (graphs 2 & 3). In Scotland this has been dropping steadily for 3 weeks now.

Hopefully this is not just a small blip and that the predicted peak of 100,000 cases per day in the UK will not eventuate. Despite the much lower level of hospitalisations per case count following the vaccination program, there is still an association, so the decrease in cases over this last week is encouraging.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...inations-today

I would describe these facts in a little more positive light, actually. Daily cases in the U.K. have fallen off dramatically, down to 564 per million from 703 in less than a week. This is great. Deaths, which lag cases by a couple of weeks, are still less than 1 per million, compared to over 15 at the peak. So the rate of death per infection is down nearly 10 fold. This shows clearly how very effective the vaccines are at preventing death.


This is a very interesting experiment -- can we live normal life with a bunch of infections, provided we have widespread vaccination? I'm really hoping for the best in the UK. This is an important moment.

[goboatingnow]

The effects of “ freedom day “ are not yet in the current figures

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

The effects of “ freedom day “ are not yet in the current figures

Sure, we'll see.

There will either be an orgy of infections, and an unacceptable level of death despite the high level of vaccination. Or not.

I am hoping fervently for the second variant.

Especially since I am hoping so much to spend the winter in Cowes again at long last, fraternize with my friends there, and spend time at London parties and at the National Theatre. God how I miss the UK. I haven't been away from London this long since I was a boy. Almost 1 1/2 years.

[El Pinguino]

Well thats that sorted.
Victoria has now snuffed out two outbreaks of the Delta variant in the state.

What was learnt last year was that mask wearing is very effective. What has been learnt this year is that short sharp lockdowns combined with good contact tracing is very effective. ( 1st Pic)



What is not effective is a soft lockdown as they have in NSW ( 2nd pic)

Both outbreaks started from the same source , a single limo driver driving infected aircrew to their hotel while unmasked.

[Dockhead]

Also not specific to Northern Europe, but I wanted to share this interesting article:


https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/...utm_term=third


Very nuanced and interesting views on vaccine skepticism.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Also not specific to Northern Europe, but I wanted to share this interesting article:

https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/...utm_term=third
Very nuanced and interesting views on vaccine skepticism.

Indeed.
“The Disinformation Dozen”
The majority of COVID-19 disinformation, shared online, comes from just 12 people, according to a report [1] by the Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH).
➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3451717
[1] ➥ https://252f2edd-1c8b-49f5-9bb2-cb57...8663366ee5.pdf

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Indeed.
“The Disinformation Dozen”
The majority of COVID-19 disinformation, shared online, comes from just 12 people, according to a report [1] by the Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH).
➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3451717
[1] ➥ https://252f2edd-1c8b-49f5-9bb2-cb57...8663366ee5.pdf

Yes, but note the comments in the National Review article about different ways to deal with that. Censorship may not be the right answer. Even though I think that some of what is being spread around really is scurrilous, intentional disinformation, not MISinformation:

"And, I’ll be honest, I don’t think misinformation is the main problem. It may be a problem, but it’s not the most important one. A great deal of vax skepticism is simply rooted in a lack of fear of COVID. Or a fear of what we can’t yet know about the vaccines. Long before Big Pharma even asked for emergency-approval authorizations, a substantial portion of the adult population of the United States had decided that the risks COVID posed to people under 50 were being vastly overstated to justify the intrusive public-health restrictions on our lives. And they determined then to resist it at every turn. For many of them, this includes resistance to the vaccine.

"In fact, there was a reservoir of demand for information showing the vaccine wasn’t good. I think cutting off the supply of misinformation you happen to dislike will do little or nothing to ease fear among the hesitant. The changing statements on the lab-leak question and the possibility of surface transmission have already sown doubt, and more censorship won’t lessen it."

https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/...utm_term=third

I think that's right. We will never overcome this if we fold it into the culture wars.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Yes, but note the comments in the National Review article about different ways to deal with that. Censorship may not be the right answer. Even though I think that some of what is being spread around really is scurrilous, intentional disinformation, not MISinformation:

"And, I’ll be honest, I don’t think misinformation is the main problem. It may be a problem, but it’s not the most important one. A great deal of vax skepticism is simply rooted in a lack of fear of COVID. Or a fear of what we can’t yet know about the vaccines. Long before Big Pharma even asked for emergency-approval authorizations, a substantial portion of the adult population of the United States had decided that the risks COVID posed to people under 50 were being vastly overstated to justify the intrusive public-health restrictions on our lives. And they determined then to resist it at every turn. For many of them, this includes resistance to the vaccine.

"In fact, there was a reservoir of demand for information showing the vaccine wasn’t good. I think cutting off the supply of misinformation you happen to dislike will do little or nothing to ease fear among the hesitant. The changing statements on the lab-leak question and the possibility of surface transmission have already sown doubt, and more censorship won’t lessen it."

https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/...utm_term=third

I think that's right. We will never overcome this if we fold it into the culture wars.

That lack of fear was primarily polically stoked by the orange one. He correctly saw COVID as a huge electoral threat and he was right.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

…….Censorship may not be the right answer……

"…….I think cutting off the supply of misinformation you happen to dislike will do little or nothing to ease fear among the hesitant……."
https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/...utm_term=third

I think that censorship of discussions revolving around COVID-19 and the vaccines has simply made people cautious of accepting government mantra. If information is being suppressed it immediately raises suspicion and doubt, particularly when the views of medical practitioners and scientists are being censored.

As for some of the posts on FB and other social media, the whacky theories that have been promoted have simply muddied the waters when it comes to concerns regarding what, in my view, are real issues regarding the long term safety of these new vaccines. I think those promoting wild theories have simply done their cause a great disservice.

SWL

[CatNewBee]

The problem is twofold. you can convince a person to get the shot, but a person who got it cannot become unvaccinated if he regrets it later. It's like virginity, once you lost it, you are screwed.

It is the bias and vigorous push for vaccination, masking and ridiculing all the risks, censorship and intentional misinformation by the media / aggitation, spreading fear, bullying, using all means to get the expeimental shots in the arms - that creates the pushback.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

The problem is twofold. you can convince a person to get the shot, but a person who got it cannot become unvaccinated if he regrets it later. It's like virginity, once you lost it, you are screwed.

It is the bias and vigorous push for vaccination, that creates the pushback.

Well, whether or not you are screwed after you have lost your virginity is a matter for debate .

Other than that, I agree. Coercion does create pushback.

SWL

[Macblaze]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

It is the bias and vigorous push for vaccination, masking and ridiculing all the risks, censorship and intentional misinformation by the media / aggitation, spreading fear, bullying, using all means to get the expeimental shots in the arms - that creates the pushback.

Making it worse, these "tactics" were also used by the covid-is-fake, anti-vaccination camp, creating even greater reaction/pushback from the more rabid you-must-vaccinate-or we-are-all-doomed crowd. The resulting positive feedback loop made any healthy scepticism or moderate response almost impossible and we were mostly forced to pick one camp or another.

[damianham]

Originally Posted by Macblaze

Making it worse, these "tactics" were also used by the covid-is-fake, anti-vaccination camp, creating even greater reaction/pushback from the more rabid you-must-vaccinate-or we-are-all-doomed crowd. The resulting positive feedback loop made any healthy scepticism or moderate response almost impossible and we were mostly forced to pick one camp or another.

Yes that is absolutely correct, we have been forced to pick one camp or the other.

What I find so completely distasteful is the suggestion from the vaxxed camp that the unvaxxed are a danger to them - they just can't see the irony in that, and that the unvaxxed should have their liberties restricted while the vaxxed can go about their lives as they wish.

If you believe the hype and are worried about covid then by all means mask up and get the shot, it is your personal choice. Just don't force me to do it if I don't believe the hype because that is allowing you a personal choice but denying me one, and that my friends is tyranny.

Remember that in Germany in the 30s a section of the population were forced to wear a yellow star. Don't forget history or you will be doomed to repeat it.