Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Dockhead]

This wave of the pandemic is not subsiding further in Northern Europe, other than in the UK. It burns on and on.

Sweden is now back over 400 daily cases per million, well above the European average of 303. Estonia's big outbreak continues, with nearly 1100 daily cases per million. Latvia is working back up towards 300.

Denmark, which had settled down after a bad outbreak before Christmas, is now back up to 150. Norway, with Finland one of the two least affected countries in Europe, is now up to 157, highest ever since the start of the pandemic. Finland passed 100 on the last day of February and carries on like that; 122 today.



Fortunately, death rates are pretty reasonable most places:



Only Estonia and Latvia are above the European average, and even these are not all that bad, so far still well under 10 per million. The Nordic countries, including Sweden, carry on with the lowest death rates in Europe. The combination of moderately high infection rate and low death rate in Sweden must reflect improvements in treatment, I suppose, and the overall quality of Nordic health care, and the converse must be true in Latvia where the death rate is 3x higher than in Sweden.

Speaking of Latvia, the scandal over vaccination continues. As it turns out, the health ministry twice refused to order vaccines through the European health board. At the time, Latvia had the lowest or nearly lowest infection rate in Europe and had entirely missed the first wave. So -- overconfidence on the part of the "potatoheads", as my Latvian friends say. We've seen many cases, besides Latvia, of countries with very low infection rates getting a bad outbreak almost overnight. All the more reason not to assume that there is some general correlation between infection rates and "performance" of countries in managing the pandemic. Of course how countries manage the pandemic affects infection rates (otherwise why would they bother?) but the pandemic is a highly chaotic phenomenon with a lot of factors influencing the course of it, besides our measures.

You can see the results of that mistake here:



It's a shame -- poor Latvia will at this rate not vaccinate even the vulnerable this year. How gratifying on the other hand to see how phenomenally great the U.S. is doing with vaccination, and the UK (the U.S. is actually catching up to the UK, with cumulative doses of 33 per 100 -- just phenomenally great -- vs 38 in the UK). Little Estonia has really broken out and is vaccinating at nearly the rate the UK was doing a couple of weeks ago. Finland and Sweden are also doing much better, and among Nordic countries, only Denmark (because of the Astra Zeneca/blood clot business) is lagging slightly below the European average.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

This wave of the pandemic is not subsiding further in Northern Europe, other than in the UK. It burns on and on.

Sweden is now back over 400 daily cases per million, well above the European average of 303. Estonia's big outbreak continues, with nearly 1100 daily cases per million. Latvia is working back up towards 300.

Denmark, which had settled down after a bad outbreak before Christmas, is now back up to 150. Norway, with Finland one of the two least affected countries in Europe, is now up to 157, highest ever since the start of the pandemic. Finland passed 100 on the last day of February and carries on like that; 122 today.

Attachment 234666

Fortunately, death rates are pretty reasonable most places:

Attachment 234667

Only Estonia and Latvia are above the European average, and even these are not all that bad, so far still well under 10 per million. The Nordic countries, including Sweden, carry on with the lowest death rates in Europe. The combination of moderately high infection rate and low death rate in Sweden must reflect improvements in treatment, I suppose, and the overall quality of Nordic health care, and the converse must be true in Latvia where the death rate is 3x higher than in Sweden.

Speaking of Latvia, the scandal over vaccination continues. As it turns out, the health ministry twice refused to order vaccines through the European health board. At the time, Latvia had the lowest or nearly lowest infection rate in Europe and had entirely missed the first wave. So -- overconfidence on the part of the "potatoheads", as my Latvian friends say. We've seen many cases, besides Latvia, of countries with very low infection rates getting a bad outbreak almost overnight. All the more reason not to assume that there is some general correlation between infection rates and "performance" of countries in managing the pandemic. Of course how countries manage the pandemic affects infection rates (otherwise why would they bother?) but the pandemic is a highly chaotic phenomenon with a lot of factors influencing the course of it, besides our measures.

You can see the results of that mistake here:

Attachment 234668

It's a shame -- poor Latvia will at this rate not vaccinate even the vulnerable this year. How gratifying on the other hand to see how phenomenally great the U.S. is doing with vaccination, and the UK (the U.S. is actually catching up to the UK, with cumulative doses of 33 per 100 -- just phenomenally great -- vs 38 in the UK). Little Estonia has really broken out and is vaccinating at nearly the rate the UK was doing a couple of weeks ago. Finland and Sweden are also doing much better, and among Nordic countries, only Denmark (because of the Astra Zeneca/blood clot business) is lagging slightly below the European average.

Not good news, particularly as deaths will rise in a few weeks in response to rising numbers now . It somehow seems worse knowing vaccination is just tantalisingly out of reach for so many of the vulnerable.

Vaccinations in the UK are still proceeding at a faster pace than needed to meet the mid April target of completing Phase 1, which includes the 9 most vulnerable groups and those caring for them. In the UK “It is estimated that taken together, these groups represent around 99% of preventable mortality from COVID-19”.

Latvia is not alone with a poor program in place. Although Australia with its essentially closed border and eradication strategy is not in the position of infections and deaths being a pressing concern, community infections arising from cases in quarantine and hospitals keep popping up and it would not take much for these to take off, particularly since there is negligible acquired immunity and winter is approaching.

It was chaotic in Australia today. Although not all nursing homes have been included yet as part of Phase 1a, Phase 1b is commencing on Monday primarily via private GP practices. From today people could book appointments (mainly by phoning although some have organised online appointments). Eligible people were not notified beforehand that this would be possible, so were caught unaware and may still be clueless. Countrywide 1000 of these practices are participating initially. There are 6+ million people in this Phase 1b group that includes those 70 years or over, those with certain medical conditions, indigenous Australians plus additional healthcare and frontline workers. Do the sums!

Most of these 1000 practices are initially only getting 50-100 doses. Many of these practices are understandably not taking anyone other than existing patients. Many are refusing to make appointments at all as they have not had any supplies delivered.

There is no priority given to the older people in this group, it is just a “free for all” when it comes to booking appointments.

It is an absolute SHAMBLES. Latvia is looking good in comparison.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Not good news, particularly as deaths will rise in a few weeks in response to rising numbers now . It somehow seems worse knowing vaccination is just tantalisingly out of reach for so many of the vulnerable.

Vaccinations in the UK are still proceeding at a faster pace than needed to meet the mid April target of completing Phase 1, which includes the 9 most vulnerable groups and those caring for them. In the UK “It is estimated that taken together, these groups represent around 99% of preventable mortality from COVID-19”.

Latvia is not alone with a poor program in place. Although Australia with its essentially closed border and eradication strategy is not in the position of infections and deaths being a pressing concern, community infections arising from cases in quarantine and hospitals keep popping up and it would not take much for these to take off, particularly since there is negligible acquired immunity and winter is approaching.

It was chaotic in Australia today. Although not all nursing homes have been included yet as part of Phase 1a, Phase 1b is commencing on Monday primarily via private GP practices. From today people could book appointments (mainly by phoning although some have organised online appointments). Eligible people were not notified beforehand that this would be possible, so were caught unaware and may still be clueless. Countrywide 1000 of these practices are participating initially. There are 6+ million people in this group which includes those 70 years or over, those with certain medical conditions, indigenous Australians plus additional healthcare and frontline workers. Do the sums!

Most of these 1000 practices are initially only getting 50-100 doses. Many of these practices are understandably not taking anyone other than existing patients. Many are refusing to make appointments at all as they have not had any supplies delivered.

There is no priority given to the older people in this group, it is just a “free for all” when it comes to booking appointments.

It is an absolute SHAMBLES. Latvia is looking good in comparison.

Wow, that is surprising. I'm sorry for my Ozzie friends:





This is very alarming. You're right -- even worse than Latvia. Even worse than India! How is that possible?

I presume that they will sort it out, get supplied, and start getting shots in arms, but they are months behind. It could mean that pandemic will go on and on and on.

And with that gloomy thought, here's another, back to the original topic of this thread, how will the cruising be in the Baltic in summer?

Last summer was suprisingly good, with things pretty much back to normal by late June, all countries except Russia open, with restaurants and culture working.

I just assumed that summer 2021 must be even better -- this should just about be over, right? And the virus naturally subsides in summer even without considering the effect of vaccination?


But what if it will be worse, not better? The virus is much more widely spread in the region, than it was last year. We are right now under far tighter restrictions than we were last spring, without any end in sight. Will it continue into the summer?

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Wow, that is surprising. I'm sorry for my Ozzie friends:

Attachment 234669

Attachment 234670

This is very alarming. You're right -- even worse than Latvia. Even worse than India! How is that possible?

I presume that they will sort it out, get supplied, and start getting shots in arms, but they are months behind. It could mean that pandemic will go on and on and on.

And with that gloomy thought, here's another, back to the original topic of this thread, how will the cruising be in the Baltic in summer?

Last summer was suprisingly good, with things pretty much back to normal by late June, all countries except Russia open, with restaurants and culture working.

I just assumed that summer 2021 must be even better -- this should just about be over, right? And the virus naturally subsides in summer even without considering the effect of vaccination?


But what if it will be worse, not better? The virus is much more widely spread in the region, than it was last year. We are right now under far tighter restrictions than we were last spring, without any end in sight. Will it continue into the summer?

Ultimately how quickly deaths drop (or stay low) depends on how quickly the vulnerable can be vaccinated. Availability of doses and vaccine options should improve rapidly, but unfortunately uptake is critical as well. It was bad enough that so many EU countries did not initially authorise use of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine for those over 65 (supplies of this vaccine just sat unused even after authorisation occurred), but this latest scare with blood clots will undoubtedly make people hesitant not just with the AstraZeneca VOVID-19 vaccine, but possibly most of them.

The other factor is what restrictions will be in place and this is not necessarily dependent on low death rates being achieved. Here in Scotland deaths have plummeted as expected, but apart from children being back at school, most of us are still under strict “stay-at-home” restrictions, so no sailing is permitted. Summer is, however, at least looking promising.

We can only wait and see how this unfolds. I would mentally prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

[Montanan]

The safety review suspension of the use of the AstraZeneca Oxford vaccine has and will slow the vaccination roll out in many countries. Fifteen countries across Europe have suspended the rollout of the Astrazeneca vaccine while the EU medicines regulators investigates reports of blood clots among patients.

Reference Map of status of the vaccine in Europe provided by the World Bank.

[Montanan]

FYI: Clarity for Roman Catholics.

Roman Catholics might be somewhat confused by reports on differing messages about the acceptability of the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine due to a cell line from an abortion being used in its production.

The differences have been resolved and Catholic teaching is clear: Catholics have a moral duty to protect themselves and others from COVID-19 by being vaccinated. However, if given the choice, they should avoid the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, according to the Vatican and the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops

Should they choose not to be vaccinated, they have a moral obligation to mask, socially distance and "do their utmost" to avoid becoming infected or infecting others, the Vatican said.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/clarity-c...093009541.html

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Montanan

FYI: Clarity for Roman Catholics...l

The J&J vaccine formula does not contain aborted fetal tissue.
Rather, virologists created J&J’s vaccine [and many other immunizations to fight viral outbreaks] in part, by growing a modified virus in cells originally derived from embryonic tissue, from an abortion performed decades ago. However, that human cell line is, physically and chemically, separate from ingredients that end up in the final vaccine product.
There are no fetal cells used in any vaccine production process.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Ultimately how quickly deaths drop (or stay low) depends on how quickly the vulnerable can be vaccinated. Availability of doses and vaccine options should improve rapidly, but unfortunately uptake is critical as well. It was bad enough that so many EU countries did not initially authorise use of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine for those over 65 (supplies of this vaccine just sat unused even after authorisation occurred), but this latest scare with blood clots will undoubtedly make people hesitant not just with the AstraZeneca VOVID-19 vaccine, but possibly most of them.

The other factor is what restrictions will be in place and this is not necessarily dependent on low death rates being achieved. Here in Scotland deaths have plummeted as expected, but apart from children being back at school, most of us are still under strict “stay-at-home” restrictions, so no sailing is permitted. Summer is, however, at least looking promising.

We can only wait and see how this unfolds. I would mentally prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

From what I have heard the blood clot experience has also happened with the Phizer and Moderna vaccine but is not being widely reported..
More political game playing by the EU 'leaders'

Does The Pfizer Vaccine Cause Blood Clots?
Pfizer’s Covid vaccine has been linked to more blood clots than AstraZeneca’s, according to the vaccine’s data.

Information from the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) in the UK suggests more people have reported blood clots after a Pfizer vaccine than with the AstraZeneca.

Up to February 28, there were 38 reports from about 11.5million doses of Pfizer’s vaccine – compared to 30 from 9.7million AstraZeneca doses.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by boatman61

From what I have heard the blood clot experience has also happened with the Phizer and Moderna vaccine but is not being widely reported..
More political game playing by the EU 'leaders'

Quite possibly. I am losing confidence in “the system” after some of what I have seen during this pandemic. Many of the countries suspending the AZ vaccine can well afford to do so as they have supplies in stock that have simply not been used due to hesitancy in uptake.

Blood clots are “common” generally and the incidence occurring in vaccinated people is actually less than expected, prompting comments by some that the vaccine may in fact be “protective”.

The area of concern is that for a few people a very unusual type of clotting has occurred: one where a low platelet count is present. However, even if the vaccine has resulted in this, it needs to be put into perspective. I think over 16 million doses of the AZ vaccine have now been administered. There has only been a handful of these unusual clots occurring (3? maybe reported, but don’t hold me to this figure). On the other hand, literally thousands of lives have been saved. As with any vaccine, risk vs benefit must be weighed up.

[CatNewBee]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Quite possibly. I am losing confidence in “the system” after some of what I have seen during this pandemic. Many of the countries suspending the AZ vaccine can well afford to do so as they have supplies in stock that have simply not been used due to hesitancy in uptake.

Blood clots are “common” generally and the incidence occurring in vaccinated people is actually less than expected, prompting comments by some that the vaccine may in fact be “protective”.

The area of concern is that for a few people a very unusual type of clotting has occurred: one where a low platelet count is present. However, even if the vaccine has resulted in this, it needs to be put into perspective. I think over 16 million doses of the AZ vaccine have now been administered. There has only been a handful of these unusual clots occurring (3? maybe reported, but don’t hold me to this figure). On the other hand, literally thousands of lives have been saved. As with any vaccine, risk vs benefit must be weighed up.

How did you know any lives have been safed? They may had become asymptomatic covid instead and now have gotten a risky vaccine and infected on purpose with a man made virus.

You try to fight the devil with the belzebub. Why is one man made virus administered on purpose better than one escaped from the lab?

This stuff is experimental, and using live viruses as vaccine means, even not taken it, you may get infected by the AstraZeneca virus accidently by talking to vaccinated people.

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by GordMay

The J&J vaccine formula does not contain aborted fetal tissue.
Rather, virologists created J&J’s vaccine [and many other immunizations to fight viral outbreaks] in part, by growing a modified virus in cells originally derived from embryonic tissue, from an abortion performed decades ago. However, that human cell line is, physically and chemically, separate from ingredients that end up in the final vaccine product.
There are no fetal cells used in any vaccine production process.

Roger that. The well characterized cell line is used to enable the replication of the virus, you don't get inoculated with a child and you will not be impregnated by receiving your jab. Ah, but may need to await nine months to pass before being sure that you don't give birth to a child as a side effect. Well at least the the Jansen vaccine as it only requires one shot, hence you only have the possibility of having one child, unlike if it was a two jab dose regime for which one might end up with twins.

Oh wait, that absurdity will become the next conspiracy non-sense being spread.

Got me to recall, collecting the placenta and afterbirth, upon the birth of my daughter, keeping it chilled until I could bring it to work at the biotechnology company I worked at. The attending nurses were kind of taken aback when I said: "Oh, please seal that in this bag and put it in the ice chest that I had brought. All the while I was busy enjoying the unforgettable first moments of holding our new born.

All end up in a blender in the lab and frozen for various experimental purposes.

We had many mammalian cell lines that we worked with at the biotechnology lab, including ones we used to develop four vaccines with. Our Rinderpest vaccine aided in being able to eliminate that exceedingly contagious virus from the planet. In June 2011, the United Nations FAO confirmed the disease was eradicated, making rinderpest only the second disease in history to be fully wiped out (outside laboratory stocks), following smallpox.
Rinderpest is the zoonotic virus from which measles and canine distemper viruses are perceived to have derived and became endemic in humans and dogs. Rinderpest [German for Cattle Plague] was an epizootic (from Greek: epi- upon + zoon animal), a disease event in a nonhuman animal population analogous to an epidemic in humans. An epizootic may be restricted to a specific locale (an "outbreak"), general (an "epizootic"), or widespread ("panzootic"). Rinderpest is one of the plagues of Egypt in the Bible. Massively deadly to even toed ungulates; an infectious viral disease of cattle, domestic buffalo, and many other species of even-toed ungulates, including gaurs, buffaloes, large antelope, deer, giraffes, wildebeests, and warthogs. The disease was characterized by fever, oral erosions, diarrhea, lymphoid necrosis, and high mortality. Death rates during outbreaks were usually extremely high, approaching 100% in immunologically naïve populations. Entire herds were regularly decimated in very short order. Most animals died six to twelve days after the first onset of the clinical signs. Rinderpest was mainly transmitted by direct contact and by drinking contaminated water, although it could also be transmitted by air. After a global eradication campaign since the mid-20th century, the last confirmed case of rinderpest was diagnosed in 2001.

Hurrah for vaccines.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

It is an absolute SHAMBLES..

Possibly not quite 'absolute'...
My son is in the ACT and is 1a .... receieved a message three days ago.. getting Phizer this week... received date and time confo yesterday..

Yesterday morning... 0830 its all over the news that 1b is underway on Monday.... roll up! roll up!

By 0930 its all over the news .... its a shambles.....

I was heading into town anyway.... thought I would drop by the fancy new vaccine centre they were talking about three weeks ago and just ask at the front desk what is going on....
Its in an old supermarket that has been closed for two or three years.

I pull into the car park... its still a construction site.....

As someone once said you can fool some of the people some of the time , etc.

I think Slomo has just about come to the end of the road.....

https://www.theage.com.au/national/v...17-p57bmk.html

PS to get it all done by October we need to to be giving 800,000 first jabs a week....

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Roger that. The well characterized cell line is used to enable the replication of the virus, you don't get inoculated with a child and you will not be impregnated by receiving your jab. Ah, but may need to await nine months to pass before being sure that you don't give birth to a child as a side effect. Well at least the the Jansen vaccine as it only requires one shot, hence you only have the possibility of having one child, unlike if it was a two jab dose regime for which one might end up with twins.

Oh wait, that absurdity will become the next conspiracy non-sense being spread.

Got me to recall, collecting the placenta and afterbirth, upon the birth of my daughter, keeping it chilled until I could bring it to work at the biotechnology company I worked at. The attending nurses were kind of taken aback when I said: "Oh, please seal that in this bag and put it in the ice chest that I had brought. All the while I was busy enjoying the unforgettable first moments of holding our new born.

All end up in a blender in the lab and frozen for various experimental purposes.

We had many mammalian cell lines that we worked with at the biotechnology lab, including ones we used to develop four vaccines with. Our Rinderpest vaccine aided in being able to eliminate that exceedingly contagious virus from the planet. In June 2011, the United Nations FAO confirmed the disease was eradicated, making rinderpest only the second disease in history to be fully wiped out (outside laboratory stocks), following smallpox.
Rinderpest is the zoonotic virus from which measles and canine distemper viruses are perceived to have derived and became endemic in humans and dogs. Rinderpest [German for Cattle Plague] was an epizootic (from Greek: epi- upon + zoon animal), a disease event in a nonhuman animal population analogous to an epidemic in humans. An epizootic may be restricted to a specific locale (an "outbreak"), general (an "epizootic"), or widespread ("panzootic"). Rinderpest is one of the plagues of Egypt in the Bible. Massively deadly to even toed ungulates; an infectious viral disease of cattle, domestic buffalo, and many other species of even-toed ungulates, including gaurs, buffaloes, large antelope, deer, giraffes, wildebeests, and warthogs. The disease was characterized by fever, oral erosions, diarrhea, lymphoid necrosis, and high mortality. Death rates during outbreaks were usually extremely high, approaching 100% in immunologically naïve populations. Entire herds were regularly decimated in very short order. Most animals died six to twelve days after the first onset of the clinical signs. Rinderpest was mainly transmitted by direct contact and by drinking contaminated water, although it could also be transmitted by air. After a global eradication campaign since the mid-20th century, the last confirmed case of rinderpest was diagnosed in 2001.

Hurrah for vaccines.

Can we not clutter up this otherwise excellent thread with personally-motivated irrelevancies? Or worse, sarcastic comments about some peoples' sincerely held, faith-based concerns over certain vaccines? Whether any of us approves or disapproves of such concerns is hardly relevant, and certainly not interesting. We've already seen posts which inform these concerns quite productively without being disrespectful. It can be done.

[ausnp84]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

It is an absolute SHAMBLES

You’re not comparing apples and apples though. While Australia is well behind the curve when it comes to Covid vaccination, they’re well in front of everyone else when it comes to minimising community infection and deaths, and thus don’t need to vaccinate the pop as urgently as say, NA or the EU.

Sure, it’ll mean the borders need to stay shut longer in order for them to vax everyone but so be it. They’ve handled the pandemic well and I’d much rather have been back there enjoying freedom and sunshine, than the rubbish locked down year we’ve endured in the UK!

N

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

You try to fight the devil with the belzebub. Why is one man made virus administered on purpose better than one escaped from the lab?

This stuff is experimental, and using live viruses as vaccine means, even not taken it, you may get infected by the AstraZeneca virus accidently by talking to vaccinated people.

I hope this information will subdue any fears, or misperceptions that the AstraZeneca vaccine's virus being contagious.

The AZD1222 vaccine is a replication-deficient simian adenovirus vector, [a common chimpanzee cold virus] containing the full‐length codon‐optimised coding sequence of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein along with a tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) leader sequence.

The benign adenovirus is called replication-deficient because some of its essential genes were deleted, so as to make it inactivated so it can not replicate itself, and replaced by a gene coding for the spike of SARS-CoV-2. Following vaccination, the adenovirus vector enters the cells, releases its genes, those are transported to the cell nucleus, thereafter the cell's machinery does the transcription in mRNA and the translation in proteins.

The AstraZeneca vaccine's modified virus can not replicate, therefore one can not accidentally be infected by talking to someone who has been vaccinated. The person that received the vaccine is not infected with the simian adenovirus, that virus is simply the vector.