Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

What are the 'mechanics' that cause such dramatic surges in Positives over what seems to be a short time period?

Why all of a sudden, more infections?

Possible reasons:

The opening of schools with unvaccinated students who become infected [most often asymptomatic or mild conditions] then pass along the virus to others.

More and more breakthrough infections of persons that are fully vaccinated but which tend not to become seriously ill or die.
Interesting Reference:https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-dou...ons/a-59523636

"The easier transmission of the Delta-variant, and also an increase in testing – those two factors contribute… and people are less thorough with mask-wearing, social distancing… Places of socialisation opening such as clubs…

Emmanuelle Chaze, correspondent - Deutsche Welle


"The majority of people hospitalised with a coronavirus infection; they are people who didn’t get the vaccine… Infections mostly happen within unvaccinated circles.

Emmanuelle Chaze, correspondent - Deutsche Welle

https://www.capetalk.co.za/articles/...p-40-in-a-week

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Possible reasons:

The opening of schools with unvaccinated students who become infected [most often asymptomatic or mild conditions] then pass along the virus to others.

More and more breakthrough infections of persons that are fully vaccinated but which tend not to become seriously ill or die.
Interesting Reference:https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-dou...ons/a-59523636

"The easier transmission of the Delta-variant, and also an increase in testing – those two factors contribute… and people are less thorough with mask-wearing, social distancing… Places of socialisation opening such as clubs…

Emmanuelle Chaze, correspondent - Deutsche Welle

"The majority of people hospitalised with a coronavirus infection; they are people who didn’t get the vaccine… Infections mostly happen within unvaccinated circles.

Emmanuelle Chaze, correspondent - Deutsche Welle

https://www.capetalk.co.za/articles/...p-40-in-a-week

A number of different studies have shown that schools are not significant vectors of community spread.

Breakthrough infections among the vaccinated can be serious vectors of community spread -- it can be worse because many of the breakthrough infections are so mild that the patient doesn't even know he's infected. Yet is very contagious.

But mostly it seems to be the unvaccinated. Singapore is a good example. Delta just spreads like wildfire. It is extremely contagious, such that you have to have a crazy percentage of the population immune before you start to see any herd immunity effects. I think if it weren't for Delta, the pandemic would really be over now in the developed world. But here we are.

I really don't know what's going to happen now. One approach may be just to give up and let it spread, figuring we've now so well protected the vulnerable with vaccination and so much reduced mortality among the less vulnerable that it will just make the rounds and die out on its own, without killing too many more people. That seems to be the chosen path of the UK, Denmark, Norway so far -- but will they hold the course? Or, we put back in place measures to reduce the spread, so soon after we declared the end of them.

But will that only be prolonging the agony? Last year, we reasoned that restrictive measures, TEMPORARY restrictive measures were worthwhile because it would give us time to get vaccines developed and into people's arms. But now there is plenty of vaccine in all the developed world -- what is the point of slowing down infections if they are anyway inevitable? I don't know.

Or we get serious about getting really everyone vaccinated. We may have to crack a few eggs to get there. SeaworthyLass has eloquently explained to those of us like me who are less sensitive to it, why we should be more understanding of the vaccine-hesistant. But in the present situation, we may just not have that option. In the U.S., the states have a well established right under the Constitution to simply force everyone to get vaccinated. Not as a condition to employment, like a vaccine mandate, but as a condition to not going to jail for defying the order. Will it come to that? It makes my civil libertarian skin crawl, but I don't think we can exclude it. That's not an option in the Nordic countries, where the governments don't even have the right to issue stay at home orders, much less force people to get vaccinated, but fortunately we have vastly less vaccine hesitancy in this region.

I have waffled a bit on vaccine mandates, under SeaworthLass's influence, but seeing what is happening in Singapore as a result of just a small percentage of unvaccinated people, I think I now come down hard in favor of vaccination required for all public-facing workers and all large workplaces, at the very least. We've got to stop messing around. The U.S. is so far behind Singapore's level of immunity -- we could have wave after wave more, and hundreds of thousands more dead. We've got to stop this, and immunity is the only way. If you face the public, you simply have no right to expose people to infection because you have some superstition about getting vaccinated. If you want to indulge those beliefs, stay at home. I'm sorry, but that's how I come out. I know some people won't like it.

None of these paths sounds very appealing. I am much less optimistic than I was a few weeks ago. One happy thought, though -- we now take plentiful supply of vaccines for granted. Just a year ago, that was nothing but a dream. It doesn't even bear thinking where the world would be without the miracle which was the unprecedentedly fast development of almost unprecedentedly effective vaccines.

[CatNewBee]

An interesting conversation with a vaccine injured person and reactions of doctors, treatment paths, reluctance and fear of reporting, censorship, study exclusions to massage the data, ignorance by representatives of the cdc, fda, vaccine companies to a delegation of vaccine victimes hearing in DC.

Tells a lot about what is going on. This is part two. Part one of the whole story is on the same channel a little earlier about the symptons and treatment.

https://youtu.be/7rZZTPp-eYU

[CatNewBee]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

What are the 'mechanics' that cause such dramatic surges in Positives over what seems to be a short time period?

Why all of a sudden, more infections?

Because the vaccines don't work as promised. The efficacy is much lower and the immunity from the vaccines is not holding up. Natural immunity is up to 30 times higher.

The spike is caused by an "ingenious" bold move to stop testing of vaccinated and recovered and give them all freedoms back while excluding unvaccinated from society (2G rule) to lure / push / punish the unvaccinated to get the shots.

Well, this fired back, as now it surfaced clearly how fast vaccinated can spread the virus among themselves and also infect the unvaccinated and everyone else, and they end up in the hospitals too with 30...50% of the cases. It is not "rare" breakthrough infections, 30..40% of a group vaccinated gets infected at a single event - that is a lot and similar to unvaccinated.

The answer is again more of it, vaccination, boosters, blame game, bullying, lockdown for unvaccinated etc.

[Anders]

Austria has new restrictions where everyone 12+ must be fully vaccinated or proof of recovery to enter hotels, restaurants, gyms ski lifts etc.
To enter Austria any adult must have had their second vaccination within 9 months, down from the current 12.

[Anders]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

What are the 'mechanics' that cause such dramatic surges in Positives over what seems to be a short time period?

Why all of a sudden, more infections?

It was expected that numbers would rise in the winter when people spend more time indoors.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Anders

It was expected that numbers would rise in the winter when people spend more time indoors.

Is this not counter intuitive considering the objective of the Lockdowns was to Keep People Indoors to stop the spread.

[Anders]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Is this not counter intuitive considering the objective of the Lockdowns was to Keep People Indoors to stop the spread.

That was indoor with their own family. Not indoor in the pub!

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Anders

It was expected that numbers would rise in the winter when people spend more time indoors.

Sure, but not to the extent we see in some countries like, Denmark. The dynamics of the pandemic are not responding as expected. We are in unknown territory. Just when we thought it was over.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Sure, but not to the extent we see in some countries like, Denmark. The dynamics of the pandemic are not responding as expected. We are in unknown territory. Just when we thought it was over.

Yes I think this is the case. The remarkable resurgence in cases has caught many by surprise. I think it will throw a spanner in the vaccines and public support. It would seem from Israeli data that the effectiveness of the vaccines wears off fast and that high viral load Infections are occurring in both vaccinated and unvaccinated .

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

……..The dynamics of the pandemic are not responding as expected. We are in unknown territory. Just when we thought it was over.

We are not entirely in unknown territory. The UK is serving as an example of what may occur.

For example, the spread of the Delta variant was very predictable given how rapidly it made up 100% of COVID-19 cases in the UK. Yet some countries seemed surprised when this occurred.

The vaccination rate in the UK was higher than other European countries and so they opened up early. Despite an estimated 94+ % of the population having antibodies (either through vaccination or infection), four months later case number are still high and deaths not negligible. This is not necessarily a harbinger of what is to come for other countries, but it is a warning of what may occur.

This is just guesswork, but I tend to think that the prediction that at some stage everyone will contract this virus is correct. If so, although the % of unvaccinated vulnerable is very low in many countries, the numbers themselves may be high and if roughly 10% of these are likely to die, then COVID deaths will continue to occur for months / years to come until everyone has either survived or succumbed.

I think this is what is occurring in the UK. At the time of opening up around 6% of those over 70 were not vaccinated. This is 6% of 10.2 million. Very roughly, if an average of 10% of these are expected to die following infection, that is a total of at least 60,000 more deaths, around 50% more than the number at the time the UK opened up.

Based on this, unfortunately I think the current situation is likely to linger in the UK until the numbers catch up.

In countries less effected, will the death rate just plod at a slow rate for a longer period?

SWL

[Montanan]

Austrians are days away from a first lockdown for anyone not fully vaccinated.
Austria recorded almost 12,000 new cases on Thursday, the highest so far. Austria recorded almost 12,000 new cases on Thursday, the highest so far. Upper Austria province will impose restrictions from Monday if it gets the go-ahead from the federal government. Salzburg faces similar measures.

Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg said a national lockdown for the unvaccinated was "probably inevitable". Two-thirds of people should not suffer because others were hesitant, he said. Upper Austria, which borders Germany and the Czech Republic and has a population of 1.5 million, has the country's highest level of infection and the lowest vaccination rate.

Austria has already banned the unvaccinated from going to restaurants, cinemas, ski lifts and hairdressers, but things are about to get even tougher in Upper Austria.
The province is introducing a lockdown for the unvaccinated. The chancellor says this means that people who have not been vaccinated won't be able to leave home, unless it is for essential reasons like going to work, buying food or exercise.


Meanwhile in Germany:

On Thursday, Germany recorded more than 50,000 daily infections for the first time. Germany's 67.3% vaccination rate is higher than in Austria, but not by much. Unvaccinated people will in effect be barred from restaurants, hotels, cinemas and theatres in the state of Brandenburg from Monday, by a "2G" rule limiting access to people who have been vaccinated or have recovered from Covid.

And in the Netherlands:

The Netherlands is also facing a surge in cases, with a record 16,364 announced on Thursday in the past 24 hours and a rise in hospital admissions.

The Dutch Outbreak Management Team recommended a two-week partial lockdown across the country, cancelling public events and shutting cinemas and theatres. A decision will only be made by the caretaker government on Friday and may stop short of the measures proposed.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...?ocid=msedgntp

Stay safe, stay healthy.

[CatNewBee]

https://youtu.be/lepqvdXoA2E
So far for safety and risk outweights benefits....

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

Because the vaccines don't work as promised. The efficacy is much lower and the immunity from the vaccines is not holding up. Natural immunity is up to 30 times higher.

The spike is caused by an "ingenious" bold move to stop testing of vaccinated and recovered and give them all freedoms back while excluding unvaccinated from society (2G rule) to lure / push / punish the unvaccinated to get the shots.

Well, this fired back, as now it surfaced clearly how fast vaccinated can spread the virus among themselves and also infect the unvaccinated and everyone else, and they end up in the hospitals too with 30...50% of the cases. It is not "rare" breakthrough infections, 30..40% of a group vaccinated gets infected at a single event - that is a lot and similar to unvaccinated.

The answer is again more of it, vaccination, boosters, blame game, bullying, lockdown for unvaccinated etc.

Politicizing this, and adding speculation about conspiracies, coverups, etc., doesn't help to understand the situation better.

We have a lot of data on how the vaccines work. They are not perfect -- no vaccines are -- but they work well. They are less effective against asymptomatic infection (still pretty effective) than they are against hospitalization and death (extremely effective). Their effectiveness declines somewhat with time. OK? All this is very clear from a big mass of data which we have already by now. See: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...w&is_new=false





If you are unvaccinated, you are vastly more likely to be infected from a given exposure, more than 10x more likely compared to a person recently vaccinated, and at least twice as likely, and more likely 4x as likely, than someone who was vaccinated some time ago. If you are infected, you can spread the virus. Vaccinated people CAN spread the virus, if they get infected, and no virus preents all infections. But vaccinated people get infected less, and therefore spread the virus that much less. Don't be confused here.

That's why vaccination DOES slow down the spread of the virus. But ONLY if enough people are either vaccinated or naturally immune from previous infections.

The reason why the pandemic continues is that the Delta variant is much more contagious than previous variants. It requires a much high level of immunity in the community than we ever thought, before the dynamics of the pandemic are changed. So much so, that it's likely that, as SeaworthyLass said, it may be inevitable that everyone simply gets it sooner or later and some people will get it more than once.

The virus kills a certain number of people, even young and healthy people. It's worthwhile stopping this thing, or at least, protecting as many people as ever possible. The longer it takes to reach a high level of community immunity, the longer this thing will go on. If we wait for everyone to get sick, rather than vaccinating them, a lot more people will die.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Austrians are days away from a first lockdown for anyone not fully vaccinated.
Austria recorded almost 12,000 new cases on Thursday, the highest so far. Austria recorded almost 12,000 new cases on Thursday, the highest so far. Upper Austria province will impose restrictions from Monday if it gets the go-ahead from the federal government. Salzburg faces similar measures.

Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg said a national lockdown for the unvaccinated was "probably inevitable". Two-thirds of people should not suffer because others were hesitant, he said. Upper Austria, which borders Germany and the Czech Republic and has a population of 1.5 million, has the country's highest level of infection and the lowest vaccination rate.

Austria has already banned the unvaccinated from going to restaurants, cinemas, ski lifts and hairdressers, but things are about to get even tougher in Upper Austria.
The province is introducing a lockdown for the unvaccinated. The chancellor says this means that people who have not been vaccinated won't be able to leave home, unless it is for essential reasons like going to work, buying food or exercise.


Meanwhile in Germany:

On Thursday, Germany recorded more than 50,000 daily infections for the first time. Germany's 67.3% vaccination rate is higher than in Austria, but not by much. Unvaccinated people will in effect be barred from restaurants, hotels, cinemas and theatres in the state of Brandenburg from Monday, by a "2G" rule limiting access to people who have been vaccinated or have recovered from Covid.

And in the Netherlands:

The Netherlands is also facing a surge in cases, with a record 16,364 announced on Thursday in the past 24 hours and a rise in hospital admissions.

The Dutch Outbreak Management Team recommended a two-week partial lockdown across the country, cancelling public events and shutting cinemas and theatres. A decision will only be made by the caretaker government on Friday and may stop short of the measures proposed.

Stay safe, stay healthy.

The situation up here is like this:





There is one really interesting (and encouraging) data point here -- death rate in Denmark is only 0.69 despite infection rate of over 400, highest in the Nordics. To put that into perspective, death rates in many countries peaked at 20 or more. Death rates of about 5 correlate to stress on hospitals; over 10 is really bad. Under 1 is associated with no excess deaths (i.e., no one is dying who wouldn't have been dying anyway, more or less).

You can see this disconnect between infection and death in Denmarks exceptionally low case fatality rate:




I'm pretty sure that this is because Denmark has a considerably higher rate of fully vaccinated people than any other country in the region, 76% of the entire population:




You can see a striking correlation, between case fatality rates and vaccination rates, in the different countries.

Since that's the entire population, not just adults, it should mean that Denmark was 2x or 3x or more less unvaccinated adults than the rest of the region.

The rate of people in hospital, like death rates, is very reasonable throughout the region:



I haven't included the Baltic States in the graphics because they mess up the scale.

Latvia, and then Estonia, were having absolutely horrible outbreaks. But infection rates in both countries have fallen off steeply: