2023 Atlantic Hurricane Names

[Montanan]

It is a quarter of a year out from the beginning of hurricane season but never too soon to begin picking your favorite storm names.



Meanwhile in Montana, I be like:

[GordMay]

2023 Hurricane Season Outlook

Yesterday (May 25, 2023), NOAA released their hurricane season outlook(s), and forecast [1] a 40 per cent chance that the Atlantic hurricane season will be near-normal.
NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.
El Niño accounts for 33 per cent to 38 per cent of the variance in the Atlantic basin (El Niño can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity), they said [2] in a press conference.
Other factors, such as African monsoons, could affect that forecast, however.

In addition to the Atlantic seasonal outlook, NOAA also issues seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern Pacific [3] and central Pacific hurricane basins.
NOAA's 2023 eastern Pacific Hurricane Season outlook [3] indicates an above-normal season is most likely (55% chance). There is a 35% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

[1] “NOAA 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook”
➥ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...urricane.shtml

[2] “NOAA predicts a near-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season”
El Nino, above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures set the stage
➥ https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/20...season-outlook

[2b] Video Briefing ➥ https://youtu.be/C1WeK1HkGGA

[3] NOAA 2023 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook
➥ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...rr/index.shtml

[GordMay]

Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers CSU released their first forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, on Thursday, April 13, anticipating that the 2023 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly below-average activity (predicting a total of 13 tropical storms, of which six will become hurricanes -(a typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, with seven spinning into hurricanes), citing the likely development of El Niño as a primary factor.

Current neutral ENSO conditions look fairly likely to transition to El Niño this summer/fall. However, there is considerable uncertainty as to how strong an El Niño would be, if it does develop. El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean, into the tropical Atlantic. The
increased upper-level winds result in vertical wind shear, which can tear apart hurricanes as they try to form.

Sea surface temperatures, in the eastern and central Atlantic, are much warmer than normal, so if a robust El Niño does not develop, the potential still exists for a busy Atlantic hurricane season.

They anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline, and in the Caribbean.

Given the conflicting signals between a potentially robust El Niño, and an anomalously warm tropical and subtropical Atlantic, the team stresses that there is more uncertainty than normal, with this outlook.

As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

Forecast for 2023 Hurricane Activity
Full ➥ https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-04.pdf

Summary ➥ https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forec...essrelease.pdf

CSU Tropical Cyclone Impact Probabilities
➥ https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html

***

The UK Met Office released their Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast yesterday (May 26), and predicts an extremely busy season, with most likely forecast of:
20 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes. (recent averages are 14, 7, & 3)
UK Met also forecasting moderate/strong ElNino.
UK Met Forecast ➥ https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/researc...thatlantic2023

[GordMay]

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has designated specific Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMCs) and Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers (TCWCs), throughout the world, as agencies responsible for issuing tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings, in each of the ocean basins.
➥ Hurricanes: Science and Society: Hurricane Forecast Regions and Centers

A list of ocean basins and the responsible RSMCs and TCWCs are shown in the following figure:

[GordMay]

Issued: June 8, 2023

“June 2023 ENSO update: El Niño is here” ~ NOAA
We expect El Niño to continue into the winter, and the odds of it becoming a strong event at its peak are pretty good, at 56%.
➥ https://www.climate.gov/news-feature...ni%C3%B1o-here

“ENSO Diagnostic Discussion” ~ CPC
Synopsis: El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.
➥ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...ensodisc.shtml

[GordMay]

NOAA forecasters increase Atlantic hurricane season prediction to ‘above normal’
Likelihood of greater activity rises due to record-warm sea surface temperatures

Record hot ocean temperatures, and a tardy El Nino, are doubling the chances of a nasty Atlantic hurricane season, this summer and fall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.

With the Atlantic hurricane season already well above normal, so far, NOAA increased how many storms to expect, and how busy the season can get.
The agency says there's a 60% chance for an above normal hurricane season, twice the agency's May forecast, which said it was 30%.
The earlier forecast leaned more toward a near normal season, with a 40%, but the chance for normal has now shrunk to 25%.

NOAA is now forecasting between 14 to 21 named storms, which is an increase over forecasters' initial May forecast, of 12 to 17.
A normal year has 14 named storms.

Of those named storms, NOAA predicts 6 to 11 will become hurricanes, which is more than the five to nine predicted in May.
Normal is seven hurricanes.
Of those hurricanes, NOAA predicts 2 to 2 will become major hurricanes with winds of more than 110 mph, which is one more than earlier predictions.
A normal year sees three major hurricanes.

A key measurement, called Accumulated Cyclone Energy — which takes into account number of storms, how strong they are and how long they last — is forecast to be double the normal for a year, NOAA said.

Other groups making hurricane season predictions have also increased what is to be expected. Colorado State University [CSU] increased its forecast, for named storms from 13 in April, to 18 now, and from 6 hurricanes in the April forecast, to 9 now.

Already, there have been 5 named storms: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, and an unnamed January storm, that got upgraded to name status, with the name “unnamed.” Normally there's only 2 named storms, by this time of year.

Update: “NOAA 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook” ~ Issued: 10 Aug 2023
➥ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...urricane.shtml

NOAA Press Release:“NOAA forecasters increase Atlantic hurricane season prediction to Above Normal”
➥ https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/no...o-above-normal

“Forecast for 2023 Hurricane Activity” ~ Colorado State University [CSU] Thursday, August 3/23
➥ https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

[GordMay]

2023 Season Re-Cap:

We had 20 named storms [7 were hurricanes], in the Atlantic basin last year, a number that is unprecedented in such a strong El Niño. In fact, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season ranks 4th for most-named storms in a year, since 1950. [1]
The warm waters acted like a counterbalance, to the typically hostile hurricane conditions, brought on by El Niño conditions.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was also above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes, and eight of those major hurricanes.
The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems.
Hurricane season activity for the eastern Pacific and central Pacific fell within predicted ranges.

A weak La Niña may develop this summer & fall [almost certainly a dissipating El Niño], and that would mean a higher likelihood of an above-average 2024v Atlantic hurricane season, irrespective of water temperature.
La Niña, and record-warm Atlantic temperatures, would be a dangerous combination, as the lower amount of wind shear, present in the atmosphere, makes it easier for hurricanes to develop, and sustain their structure.

[1] “2023 Atlantic hurricane season ranks 4th for most-named storms in a year” ~ NOAA
➥ https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/20...storms-in-year

“CSU researchers correctly predict above-average 2023 Atlantic hurricane season”
➥ https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forec...essrelease.pdf
➥ https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html