Will there be a glut of boats for sale once Baby Boomers retire from boating?

[LF4]

Originally Posted by Davy J

That's actually part of the problem, there isn't a market for "volume". Not only are the boat builders competing with each other, they are competing with 40 years of used boats that are ,at least, right now still usable

That's why I think, over time, the market for used boats will become more expensive and not the other way around.

I tend to agree with this thinking. It is the same way in almost any market. You have what the wealthy can afford and then what everyone else can afford.

Lets be real here. Sailboating is only going to continue to become a more and more expensive pass-time. I think a lot of sailors want it that way. What type of person wants to come into port and not be able to anchor out because of a glut of boats? What millionaire wants to park their boat next to someones $30k boat? It's the same thing at malls. People with nice cars either valet their vehicle or park them all the way at the back of the parking lot so that the rest of the population "average Joe riff raff" doesn't ding their doors. Moreover, there are malls with valet parking and only cater to the wealthier folks. It is a simple choice to not intertwine the two worlds as much as possible. I 100% understand the desire. I have friends/clients at both ends of the spectrum and if you put them in a room together they could both be speaking English, but not that same language. For example, I have a guy that is uber success and driven and cannot understand/tolerate anyone that doesn't share that same trait. I also have a friend that is an impoverished social worker and she doesn't understand how people can live their lives the way he lives his. They choose to be sheltered from each others world.

Now, to the manufacturers/service providers. If I was a boat maker/service provider I would want to be selling to "uber guy" over "poor social worker" (PSW going forward) every, single, time. Will "uber guy" be more of a pain in the ass? Probably. Are there less of him out there? You bet! Will he have the means to keep coming back for sales and service?100%, or at least until he is bored. PSW wouldn't have the means to enjoy my product no matter what the scenario...so I look up market. Okay, now we move to a household making middle class income. Maybe I can sell them a week in the BVI once every 5 years. Gotta keep going up market. Family of 4 $225k in annual income on the east coast. Maybe I can sell them a boat on a payment plan...perhaps that boat could be in the neighborhood of $125,000 before taxes and fees associated...perhaps they would take a 10 year loan at 5% and pay $1,500/month for the privilege. But, I seriously doubt that. I doubt it because insurance, mooring, etc. are going to add 70% to that monthly payment. I doubt that because that boat will be about 30 feet and cramped as hell compared to current living expectations. That being the case, mass market produced Water boats">blue water boats cannot exist as they are not going to be purchased/priced within a range that makes sense for either side of that equation. I know that I would want some serious customization to come with anything that I am purchasing in the $400k plus price range. You cannot automate customization to bring prices down on products that do not have enough demand, plain and simple. That leaves you with skilled manual labor...and we all know labor costs are only going to continue to go up as we start to value the skilled worker more and more as societies.

What the service provider/manufacturer in a niche industry needs is a cash flush buyer. Those are millionaires...and not just those with $1-2 million. Think $4-5million.

It makes me sad as someone pursuing the dream. I would love to be able to find something of reasonable quality (new or damn near new), with reasonable space (say 50 foot mono or 40 foot cat), that won't kill my family during a circumnavigation and can be had for a reasonable price (is a quarter of a million cash a pittance these days?).

[ramblinrod]

Originally Posted by LF4

I tend to agree with this thinking. It is the same way in almost any market. You have what the wealthy can afford and then what everyone else can afford.

Lets be real here. Sailboating is only going to continue to become a more and more expensive pass-time. I think a lot of sailors want it that way. What type of person wants to come into port and not be able to anchor out because of a glut of boats? What millionaire wants to park their boat next to someones $30k boat? It's the same thing at malls. People with nice cars either valet their vehicle or park them all the way at the back of the parking lot so that the rest of the population "average Joe riff raff" doesn't ding their doors. Moreover, there are malls with valet parking and only cater to the wealthier folks. It is a simple choice to not intertwine the two worlds as much as possible. I 100% understand the desire. I have friends/clients at both ends of the spectrum and if you put them in a room together they could both be speaking English, but not that same language. For example, I have a guy that is uber success and driven and cannot understand/tolerate anyone that doesn't share that same trait. I also have a friend that is an impoverished social worker and she doesn't understand how people can live their lives the way he lives his. They choose to be sheltered from each others world.

Now, to the manufacturers/service providers. If I was a boat maker/service provider I would want to be selling to "uber guy" over "poor social worker" (PSW going forward) every, single, time. Will "uber guy" be more of a pain in the ass? Probably. Are there less of him out there? You bet! Will he have the means to keep coming back for sales and service?100%, or at least until he is bored. PSW wouldn't have the means to enjoy my product no matter what the scenario...so I look up market. Okay, now we move to a household making middle class income. Maybe I can sell them a week in the BVI once every 5 years. Gotta keep going up market. Family of 4 $225k in annual income on the east coast. Maybe I can sell them a boat on a payment plan...perhaps that boat could be in the neighborhood of $125,000 before taxes and fees associated...perhaps they would take a 10 year loan at 5% and pay $1,500/month for the privilege. But, I seriously doubt that. I doubt it because insurance, mooring, etc. are going to add 70% to that monthly payment. I doubt that because that boat will be about 30 feet and cramped as hell compared to current living expectations. That being the case, mass market produced blue water boats cannot exist as they are not going to be purchased/priced within a range that makes sense for either side of that equation. I know that I would want some serious customization to come with anything that I am purchasing in the $400k plus price range. You cannot automate customization to bring prices down on products that do not have enough demand, plain and simple. That leaves you with skilled manual labor...and we all know labor costs are only going to continue to go up as we start to value the skilled worker more and more as societies.

What the service provider/manufacturer in a niche industry needs is a cash flush buyer. Those are millionaires...and not just those with $1-2 million. Think $4-5million.

It makes me sad as someone pursuing the dream. I would love to be able to find something of reasonable quality (new or damn near new), with reasonable space (say 50 foot mono or 40 foot cat), that won't kill my family during a circumnavigation and can be had for a reasonable price (is a quarter of a million cash a pittance these days?).

I AM a marine service provider.

It would not be possible to have a better class of people in my customer data base.

Interestingly, I don't think any have a net worth of $4M+.

2019 Business Plan - target customer - no change.

[Tillsbury]

I don't know if our location makes a significant different, but over here in NZ there seem to be two kinds of cruising boat. Bear in mind that it's a two-week sail to anywhere abroad from here, through unpredictable and significant weather areas.

One is the 70s/80s "bluewater", mostly in poor condition, mostly one-off or very limited builds, that have obviously been serious ocean sailing in their past lives but would need a very significant amount of money spending to bring them up to date. Many of these are owned by the older members of the marinas.

The other is the relatively modern (say 10-20 years old) boat, usually fairly well equipped and maintained. These are generally boats that one would be comfortable making a long-distance trip on, with the expectation that you would be reasonably safe doing so.

There are dozens and dozens of the first type on the market. Most of the ones for sale have been so for months or years.

There are a limited number of the second type. They usually sell pretty quickly, or at least they do as soon as the optimistic pricing is reduced to something reasonable. There is certainly a market here for well-maintained seaworthy boats.

Having said that, our market is very unusual in that there is no glut of cheap plastic. Unlike marinas in the UK, most boats are not high-volume production brands (or if they are, they are the top end of those brands).

In my experience, the baby boomers have the older boats, and some of them may be disappointed when they come to sell. There is certainly no indication that there is going to be a glut of good usable boats coming up. There will likely continue to be a glut of ancient boats that are thirty years behind on their maintenance, but if that's what you are expecting as a "cheap boat" then the overall cost will be higher than you think.

The good, more modern, well-maintained boats are more often owned by Gen-X types, and they aren't going to be for sale for a while in any volume.

[ramblinrod]

Originally Posted by LF4

What millionaire wants to park their boat next to someones $30k boat?

Ummmmm, any fellow millionaire whose acquaintance we would wish to make?

We have had many, dinghy up to our boat to remark how beautiful she is.

On occasion, it has ended up in a tour, apps and bevvies, dinner, and talking about boating and enjoying each others company to the wee hours.

Often we reciprocate the next evening, and while touring their boat, rather than making us feel self-conscious about our boat of lesser value, they make us feel comfortable.

The ones who think they are all that, they spend their evening alone, looking down their nose at a better class of people with better up-bringing.

[Joe Deepwater]

Originally Posted by Davy J

I’m not sure what the OP is waiting for? Are you thinking that magically, at some time, boats will be dirt cheap?

I don’t think that time will ever come. Why? For a number of reasons. More boats were built in the ‘70’s and ‘80’s than any other time in history. Most of them are still out there, it could be argued that the best time to buy is right now, while some of these production boats are still viable. Notice I said viable. Many of them will probably become junker’s because of neglect. In my marina alone, there are a number of boats, both in the water and on the hard, that simply aren’t worth anything at all. It would take too much time and effort, and money, to get them to acceptable levels.

Now, couple that with the reality that manufacturers are producing less boats every year, and that many of those are not in middle class pricing, many being 50’, or larger, or catamarans approaching a million dollars. There is the possibility that twenty years from now, there will be less boats available than there is right now. And most likely, they will be more expensive than they are right now.

It was a question about demographics. I couldn't find an answer on the internet. Surely someone in the industry know the AVERAGE age to retire from boating. Average retirement in US is 62 years old. Docking, climbing, and walking on a moving boat can be physically demanding, so I was just wondering at what age does boating get to be too much of a physical strain to be worth the effort? Having a full time job increases the likelihood of being able to make a boat payment. PLUS, being on a fixed income in retirement is a little scary to expect to be able to pay for this expensive lifestyle which is full of surprise repair expenses.

I value adventure, but I did not grow up with these handheld video games. Getting my kids to go boating is sometimes a struggle because they prefer video adventure. Not sure how much this will affect future demand for boats. Now add future additional environmental laws which will label boating
as a source of pollution.

Perhaps a better question might be to ask what is the average age to retire from boating based on the combination of physical, economic, and social factors?

I earn a good living, yet I feel poor and in awe of the prices of the yachts at marinas. It's hard to believe there are that many ppl who can afford to buy these yachts, and pay to run them. Your point is well taken when you say there aren't many affordable boats for the middle class. Your other point that old boats are junk and worth nothing means that boats went from being exquisitely expensive when new, to worth nothing when old. That says a lot. When is that proverbial tipping point in a boat's life, and when does the average bubble of baby boomers retire from boating?

I don't want to plan to buy my dream boat some day 20 years from now, only to discover that I get too many aches and pains after boating, and I'm concerned about a fixed income.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Joe Deepwater

Perhaps a better question might be to ask what is the average age to retire from boating based on the combination of physical, economic, and social factors?

It's a relatively small slice of the general public, and yet "boatig" still encompasses such a wide range of activities, from a canoe all the way up to a megayacht...


I don't think there's a meaningful answer to your question.

[a64pilot]

Actually the wealthy are buying boats and airplanes, in record numbers.
Just not the boats and airplanes Joe the Plumber used to buy.
Sales and deliveries of Mega Yachts I’ll bet are at historic levels, Gulfstream is sold out years in advance for their biggest “Business” jet that starts at $65 million each.

[a64pilot]

By far and away the airplanes that the common man used to buy, the little single engine pistons, were built in the 70’s and 80’s.
I bet the same for boats.
In the 70’s and 80’s the average successful working man could buy a new or newer airplane or boat if they wanted it bad enough.
Today? If they want it bad enough they can still buy a boat of an airplane, just the ones from the 70’s or 80’s.
That of course does not keep the manufacturers doors open for little boats, the Mega manufacturers however are doing very well indeed
https://www.businessinsider.com/gold...yachts-2016-11

[Mike OReilly]

Like I said earlier Joe, your age question might have an answer, but I suspect it is only one aspect of a multi-dimensional question regarding when someone retires from cruising. Age is a factor, but so is fitness, experience, wealth, health, and probably many dozens of other factors. Average age will tell you very little.

There are thousands — tens of thousand — of good quality older boats out there available to middle class earners. But it depends on what you’re looking for, and where you are looking.

As far as cost to operate goes, again, it depends on where and how you want to cruise. My costs to cruise are a fraction of what most people report. But I also make choices to ensure this is the case.

It mostly depends on you.

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

By far and away the airplanes that the common man used to buy, the little single engine pistons, were built in the 70’s and 80’s.
I bet the same for boats.
In the 70’s and 80’s the average successful working man could buy a new or newer airplane or boat if they wanted it bad enough.
Today? If they want it bad enough they can still buy a boat of an airplane, just the ones from the 70’s or 80’s.
That of course does not keep the manufacturers doors open for little boats, the Mega manufacturers however are doing very well indeed
https://www.businessinsider.com/gold...yachts-2016-11

If the recreational airplane market is analgous to the boat market and the premise of this thread is true: boomers well leave a glut of boats, then I expect you would already see this in the plane market. Boomers will most likely drop out of the plane market much sooner due to medical reasons and licensing, where they can soldier on much longer on their boats.

[Cheechako]

I think there may be. It's been discussed a lot on my Music/guitar forums also. The old guitars and amps we loved "back in the day" are valuable, but at what point does it all come apart? We love them because we grew up with them. They mean little to most 20 year olds.
I think to some extent that glut point has already begun. Cruising in boats doesn't seem the passion for as many people as it used to be. The world has become more of a paycheck to paycheck situation for a higher percentage of people. Travel has become more expensive just for check in fees, not to mention world unrest issues. Frankly, many of the younger generation cannot afford a roof over their heads now days, so they gang up and 3 people share an apartment. Rent is at least 10 times what it was when I was a young adult. Those great opportunities for work that occurred for 30-40 years after the war are not there now... or are in China instead.

[kmacdonald]

There already is a glut of old boats on the market. A lot of them will never sell. Newer (say 10 years old or less) boats in good condition are scarce. I guess not many new boats were sold during the financial crisis. No data to back it up, just my observation.

[Joe Deepwater]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

It's a relatively small slice of the general public, and yet "boatig" still encompasses such a wide range of activities, from a canoe all the way up to a megayacht...


I don't think there's a meaningful answer to your question.

It seems that most of the sailors in this thread believe that sailing is declining, so let's stick to 40-80 foot (12-24meter) powerboats. Small used powerboats can be affordable. The problem I see with small used boats is that they break down so often that younger entry level boaters will soon tire of dealing with broken boats and the high price of labor to fix them as their first boat purchase, and exit boating due to finances and/or frustration.

The most frustrating aspect of boating in my opinion is that labor costs are high, waiting for repairs takes too long, and the quality of the repairs is average to low. This is the exact opposite of the Amazon/WalMart effect of the trend of buying higher quality products at the lowest possible prices and getting them quickly.

[Joe Deepwater]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

By far and away the airplanes that the common man used to buy, the little single engine pistons, were built in the 70’s and 80’s.
I bet the same for boats.
In the 70’s and 80’s the average successful working man could buy a new or newer airplane or boat if they wanted it bad enough.
Today? If they want it bad enough they can still buy a boat of an airplane, just the ones from the 70’s or 80’s.
That of course does not keep the manufacturers doors open for little boats, the Mega manufacturers however are doing very well indeed
https://www.businessinsider.com/gold...yachts-2016-11

But the 70s and 80s might have been a function of the inflating bubble of baby boomers entering their prime earning years. Now we're witnessing the deflation. And maybe the manufacturers' forecasting knew it was coming all along, and just expected the next generation to repair, recycle, and reuse the older boats/planes.

[Davy J]

Perhaps a better question might be to ask what is the average age to retire from boating based on the combination of physical, economic, and social factors?

This, of course, will be the decision of the the actual participants. I am included in the "boomer" years, actually the last of them, years wise....... I've owned six different cruising boats, I "might" purchase two more boats in my lifetime, maybe, maybe not. I'll probably only quit when 1) can't physically do it, 2) tired of it mentally, (seen it all, something else has my attention), 3) becomes too expensive to be viable.......... The last one is, where I think, will make the decision for most people, not just boomers, everyone. Very few new marinas are being constructed, if any at all, the population, at least here in Florida is growing astronomically daily. My marina stopped charging by the foot, they now charge by the size of the slip. Keeping a 30' boat that's worth $20,000.00 in a slip that costs $8000-$9000.00 a year will be a difficult choice.

In contradiction to my first post, it may become increasingly easy to find a glut of cheap boats.............. Finding a place to keep them will be the problem.