Will there be a glut of boats for sale once Baby Boomers retire from boating?

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by CaptTom

Besides, with all the anchorages being converted to paid mooring fields, or anchoring banned outright, where would they go?

I see that as likely myself, the potential profit is just too much to pass on, and it gives the big buck houses what they want, no derelict boats in their backyard.

I started this Retirement thing thinking Diesel pusher RV, but then after owning a 5th wheel for awhile realizing that meant traveling from one KOA campground to the other, I hit on cruising specifically cause you can anchor where you like, move when you want to, and of course can travel internationally.

But now cruising, I see the proliferation of moorings and people happy to pick up a ball, for only $20 a day, and often they get nothing at all for a ball.
So why are they blissfully happy to pick up a ball for $20 a day and not even get trash disposal out of the deal? All the reviews say how it’s such a great deal, how it was worth it, are they fools? $600 a month to keep your anchor dry?
Afraid to anchor is all I can come up with.
The mooring scares me, I know the condition of my ground tackle, the mooring I don’t.

[Mike OReilly]

The whole ‘docks are full’ and ‘anchorages being converted to mooring fields’ is very real — but only in some places. I can tell you where I have cruised, there is no such trend.

I suspect these negative trends exist in localized dense urban areas where it is warm, and the boating is easy. Florida and some areas of the PNW seem to stand out.

I understand… these are where people congregate, but it’s a big world out there. One of the key aspects of cruising is being able to move your home to places more desirable.

[Joe Deepwater]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

My prediction is: Yes. In fact, I think we’re already seeing it in the used market. The number of boats available seems to grow each year.

That's why I asked about the average age of retirement from boating. Surely someone inside this industry has a statistic. It would make sense if the prices and options on new boats was flatlining or decreasing, but new boat prices just keep getting more outrageous. How many people remain who have this much coin? Certainly not younger people.

[Joe Deepwater]

Originally Posted by rsn48

There is another thread going about the Toronto Boat Show and how the number of new sailboats on display has gone down drastically and power boats on display up dramaticlly. It was also commented on that most that seemed to be looking seriously at purchasing boats had silver hair - baby boomers.

Why? Did they say if the powerboats at the Toronto Show were dayboats/sportboats versus cruisers? I wouldn't deny that trends toward more instant gratification and wake surfing would give powerboats an edge over sailboats. Do sailboats last longer than powerboats?

[Joe Deepwater]

Originally Posted by BugzyCan

This is the same issue experienced with Motorcycles, and Harley in particular. Their demographic are the baby boomers and they are quickly dying out, leaving lots of used bikes for sale, and limited buyers. The huge used market takes away from the new buyers, and this is hurting HD. This problem is only going to get worse.


Boats at least decay quickly if not maintained, unlike motorcycles, so there is that. It is not so easy to leave your sailboat in the garage for 20 years.

That's a great parallel, and that's why I'm surprised that the prices of new cruisers are so high. Surely the manufacturers will eventually run low on the numbers of people who can afford those prices before those people are too old to handle a large boat?

[Joe Deepwater]

Originally Posted by CaptTom

I think the bigger question is how many of the younger generations are going to become cruisers, or boaters at all.

I don't see the kids messing about in boats like we used to. They don't take little skiffs out fishing in the ocean, they don't hang around the docks, they don't buy dilapidated runabouts or sailing dinghies to fix up and run. They don't take after-school jobs on fishing boats, or hang out in dusty boat builders' barns. They're ferried to and from structured, organized activities in their parents' minivans.

Are they going to become cruisers? Not likely. Day boats are selling well, and probably always will. Besides, with all the anchorages being converted to paid mooring fields, or anchoring banned outright, where would they go?

Force them to become more romantic by listening to Yacht Rock radio on Sirius. Maybe then they'll become romantic enough to want to spend more time out on the water.

[Pete7]

Originally Posted by Chotu

The trends seem accurate as described here, but why are all the marinas full or on wait list?

Maybe the percentage of the population interested is shrinking, but the total number of boaters seems to be increasing to me.

Well if you go down to the marina late Friday night you will see all the boats lit up. The baby boomers are using the boats and marinas as a floating holiday homes. Boats don't go anywhere much just a escape pad.

Pete

[Joe Deepwater]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Greetings and welcome aboard the CF, Joe.
There may be (I wouldn't be surprised) a future supply/demand imbalance, but I doubt if boatbuilders are preparing for it.

Really? Every large industry studies trends and forecasts. There's too much money to be lost if they don't. Surely there's an insider who knows what they're forecasting for growth. I couldn't find any stats with a Google search.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Joe Deepwater

That's why I asked about the average age of retirement from boating. Surely someone inside this industry has a statistic. It would make sense if the prices and options on new boats was flatlining or decreasing, but new boat prices just keep getting more outrageous. How many people remain who have this much coin? Certainly not younger people.

Hmmm, good question. Maybe someone has this data somewhere. There does appear to be quite a range though. I suspect the simple age datapoint doesn’t correlate as strongly as other factors, such as income, health, family dependents, etc.

Originally Posted by Joe Deepwater

Why? Did they say if the powerboats at the Toronto Show were dayboats/sportboats versus cruisers? I wouldn't deny that trends toward more instant gratification and wake surfing would give powerboats an edge over sailboats. Do sailboats last longer than powerboats?

As someone who started attending the TO boat show going on 20 years ago now my observation is that it was ever so. Sail has always been relegated to a small section of this show — at least over the last two decades I’ve observed. Last time I was there (a few years ago), the floor space hadn’t noticeably changed.

So I ask (did ask in the other thread): when was it that sail was so much larger? Certainly more than two decades ago.

Originally Posted by Joe Deepwater

That's a great parallel, and that's why I'm surprised that the prices of new cruisers are so high. Surely the manufacturers will eventually run low on the numbers of people who can afford those prices before those people are too old to handle a large boat?

I’d speculate that prices are high for new boats b/c it is not a mass market. Larger new boats are targeted to the upper financial classes. There may be a lot fewer of those folks, but there is still enough to move the small number of new boats each year.

For those of us with meagre means, the used market is the place to be. It’s here that there appears to be a rapidly growing number of boats available, and at good prices.

All this said, others have suggested the newer mass market boats like Bennies and Jeaunies and Hunters are likely cheaper today, when translated into constant dollars, compared to boats in the 70s and 80s. I’ve not done this analysis so can’t say for sure, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

Originally Posted by Pete7

Well if you go down to the marina late Friday night you will see all the boats lit up. The baby boomers are using the boats and marinas as a floating holiday homes. Boats don't go anywhere much just a escape pad.

I agree. I wonder if some of this ‘dock cottage’ trend is related to the small amount of vacation time Americans have compared to all other developed countries. Is this more of an American phenomena? Is this seen at the same scale in Canada, in Oz, or in Europe? Would be an interesting comparison if it could be made.

[Pete7]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

I agree. I wonder if some of this ‘dock cottage’ trend is related to the small amount of vacation time Americans have compared to all other developed countries. Is this more of an American phenomena? Is this seen at the same scale in Canada, in Oz, or in Europe? Would be an interesting comparison if it could be made.

Yes I was shocked when my boss, an US exchange officer, told me he only gets 14 days holiday a year, plus some bank holidays. Whilst the Canadian exchange officers seemed to have much more holidays, equal to the British. The US officers were also at their desks by 7am in the morning and a hard work ethic.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Pete7

Yes I was shocked when my boss, an US exchange officer, told me he only gets 14 days holiday a year, plus some bank holidays. Whilst the Canadian exchange officers seemed to have much more holidays, equal to the British. The US officers were also at their desks by 7am in the morning and a hard work ethic.

This gets us a bit off topic, but it brings to mind a tourism conference I once covered. A speaker was unveiling his company’s new immersive tourism product, but even though it was a Canadian company, it wasn’t being marketed to North Americans. I asked why:

“Simply put Canadians and Americans don’t get enough holiday time to be able to take our trips. You folks work way too hard.”

The wiki map on international holiday time tells the tale pretty clearly:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/F..._the_World.png

Given this, it’s probably not surprising few cruising boats in North America ever go cruising. Few of us have the time.

[GordMay]

Yes, there were many more sailboats at the distant past boat shows. There were also many more sailboat manufacturers in the 70s, 80s, & 90s (in Canada).
Some historical pictures from the Toronto International Boat Show:
1984: Wall to wall Sailboats
1987: Wall to wall Powerboats
1991: Elizabeth Gozzard helps son Robin; 7; get a sailboat built by the family firm in Goderich ready for the show.
1993: Fraser Phillips; of Willy Wash cleans off a sailboat in preparation for this weekend's Toronto International Boat Show at Exhibition Place.

[GordMay]

[GordMay]

[Davy J]

I’m not sure what the OP is waiting for? Are you thinking that magically, at some time, boats will be dirt cheap?

I don’t think that time will ever come. Why? For a number of reasons. More boats were built in the ‘70’s and ‘80’s than any other time in history. Most of them are still out there, it could be argued that the best time to buy is right now, while some of these production boats are still viable. Notice I said viable. Many of them will probably become junker’s because of neglect. In my marina alone, there are a number of boats, both in the water and on the hard, that simply aren’t worth anything at all. It would take too much time and effort, and money, to get them to acceptable levels.

Now, couple that with the reality that manufacturers are producing less boats every year, and that many of those are not in middle class pricing, many being 50’, or larger, or catamarans approaching a million dollars. There is the possibility that twenty years from now, there will be less boats available than there is right now. And most likely, they will be more expensive than they are right now.