What Will Happen to Boat Pricing when Euro Is Under Par to US$ ?

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by RKsailsolo

Dave (and Valhalla too),

I have to admit the currency fluctuations confuse me somewhat. So you are suggesting there are countermeasures that could negate the current trend--albeit short lived--to parity and defuse USD strengthening over EUR?

Firstly the Greek issue is having no bearing , Greece is 2% of the eurozones GDP, this issue will get resolved within the next few months

Currencies tend to undershoot so I suspect some strengthening of the euro to reoccur. Secondly the indications are that QE will not be effective and I suspect the Germans will put a stop to the ecb . That will cause a strengthening of the euro.

However I think the ecb would certainly like to see the euro well below $1:25

Dave

[RKsailsolo]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Firstly the Greek issue is having no bearing , Greece is 2% of the eurozones GDP, this issue will get resolved within the next few months

Currencies tend to undershoot so I suspect some strengthening of the euro to reoccur. Secondly the indications are that QE will not be effective and I suspect the Germans will put a stop to the ecb . That will cause a strengthening of the euro.

However I think the ecb would certainly like to see the euro well below $1:25

Dave

Thanks Dave and Valhalla, I can see that It's really quite a complicated thing.

[savoir]

Something financially ugly might happen in Europe around the end of February. The government of Greece will soon run out of money and must reach a fresh arrangement with its creditors within 3 weeks or so. So far nothing has been agreed.


Yanis Varoufakis summed up the delicate nature of things a few days ago "I'm the finance minister of a bankrupt country".

[vegasandre]

OK things are falling into place quickly now.


Euro 1.08 to /$


that 400k EUR sailboat was $570000 exactly 1 year ago.
Today its $432000 and falling quickly to parity and beyond.

[savoir]

The recent deal between Eurogroup and Greece achieved nothing beyond stalling for a few months. Even though Varoufakis continues to talk tough, the bankers have him cornered and he knows it. It goes so far that they wrote the terms of the so called deal recently signed between them.

The letter signed by Varoufakis which claims to represent his terms was actually drafted for him by Declan Costello of the European Commission.
" Sign here Shmuck ! "

Bad news from Greece later in the year is likely to cause further falls in the Euro.

[leftbrainstuff]

We bought our boat in the US when the Aussie peaked around $1.08 US.

Saved us a ton of cash.

Sent from my SM-N900T using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

[GoingWalkabout]

Euro headed bellow US Dollar quicker than what people think. Today saw a huge slide in the Euro. More to come in my opinion.

Frome the Wall Street Journal today:
The euro fell to $1.0839 in late-afternoon trading in New York, its lowest level against the dollar since Sept. 4, 2003. The euro recovered slightly to end the session down 1.7% at $1.0843 in its largest one-day decline in six weeks. WSJ.

So where is the Euro heading?
Keep an eye on European politics for more downward pressure on the Euro. And its not just the Greek basket case that hasn't been settled but just pushed off for 3 months. Money Markets have not yet priced in the prospect of a nasty Spanish election cycle. The Spanish unemployment rate is currently 23.7% with GDP growing at just 0.7%. After years of suffering from sluggish growth, high unemployment and fiscal austerity agreed at the Eurozone level, the Spanish electorate is eying a far-left political party, Podemos, as a way to protest austerity. The downward slide has not stopped with in my opinion all indicators pointing to even a lower Euro to the Dollar. And yes I will be bold enough to say that the Euro is heading bellow the Dollar.... Good times ahead for US dollar buyers of French boats.

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Firstly the Greek issue is having no bearing , Greece is 2% of the eurozones GDP, this issue will get resolved within the next few months

Currencies tend to undershoot so I suspect some strengthening of the euro to reoccur. Secondly the indications are that QE will not be effective and I suspect the Germans will put a stop to the ecb . That will cause a strengthening of the euro.

However I think the ecb would certainly like to see the euro well below $1:25

Dave

Oh how I have to disagree. Currency values are affected by a multitude of things. There is what is called fundamentals and then there is sentiment. In many respects sentiment more often than note rules the day and dictates price movements more than fundamentals. But sentiment itself does not develop in a vacuum and it itself flows from fundamentals. However it is usual that sentiment can rule markets either ahead or behind fundamentals for a long time. Some would say that for far too long the bullish sentiment towards the Euro that saw the Euro for over a decade higher than the US dollar did not take into account economic realities. In short there was a disconnect between sentiment and fundamentals.

The Greek debacle has caused a shock in he sentiment bubble and has caused many in the financial community around the world to reassess the fundamentals of the Euro. And on analysis many see the fundamental structural flaws in socialist leaning Europe and see that economically there is no case for the Euro to be weighted higher than the US dollar.

So i am sorry to say that your statement that the Greek debacle did not and would not have an effect on the Euro is not credible. I would add, lets see what happens in 3 months after their recent extension expires. And lets not take forget the other basket case, Spain.

I could go on but no point. Todays huge drop in the value of the Euro only supports my position.

Its a great day for US buyers of new and pre-owned french boats. Nothing will now halt the inevitable slide in the sale price especially of pre-owned boats which will be very painful for Caribbean charter operators needing to turn over their fleets. Others that can be hurt are those who bought new boats and have them in charter programs who will see a much lower actual price in the relation to the US dollar when they come to sell.

Good days ahead as the dollar is set to surpass the value of the Euro for dollar owners wanting to buy Euro boats.

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by savoir

The recent deal between Eurogroup and Greece achieved nothing beyond stalling for a few months. Even though Varoufakis continues to talk tough, the bankers have him cornered and he knows it. It goes so far that they wrote the terms of the so called deal recently signed between them.

The letter signed by Varoufakis which claims to represent his terms was actually drafted for him by Declan Costello of the European Commission.
" Sign here Shmuck ! "

Bad news from Greece later in the year is likely to cause further falls in the Euro.

[vegasandre]

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

Euro headed bellow US Dollar quicker than what people think. Today saw a huge slide in the Euro. More to come in my opinion.

Frome the Wall Street Journal today:
The euro fell to $1.0839 in late-afternoon trading in New York, its lowest level against the dollar since Sept. 4, 2003. The euro recovered slightly to end the session down 1.7% at $1.0843 in its largest one-day decline in six weeks. WSJ.

So where is the Euro heading?
Keep an eye on European politics for more downward pressure on the Euro. And its not just the Greek basket case that hasn't been settled but just pushed off for 3 months. Money Markets have not yet priced in the prospect of a nasty Spanish election cycle. The Spanish unemployment rate is currently 23.7% with GDP growing at just 0.7%. After years of suffering from sluggish growth, high unemployment and fiscal austerity agreed at the Eurozone level, the Spanish electorate is eying a far-left political party, Podemos, as a way to protest austerity. The downward slide has not stopped with in my opinion all indicators pointing to even a lower Euro to the Dollar. And yes I will be bold enough to say that the Euro is heading bellow the Dollar.... Good times ahead for US dollar buyers of French boats.

Yes good times ahead for those buying and French or EUR denominated boats for US buyers.

Euro now 1.07/$ as of today. Parity is not even a question any more. It will happen. Now wondering if it breaks well below that.

Hmmm my future second hand Catana is getting cheaper by the minute.

[s/v Beth]

When this thread started I thought it was a pipe dream. Now as I look at tris they are a good 20% cheaper than a few months ago. Will soon be time to get a DF!

[tropicalescape]

If you want to read something funny go back and read the first few pages of this thread...

[markpierce]

Now I feel better after having my Euros pickpocketed in Italy last December. The gypsies may be even happier since my wallet had several times more Dollars.

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by vegasandre

Still looking to buy that Catamaran.
When looking at 2nd hand pricing - Ive noticed most are priced in Euros.

However It is my feeling that the Euro is basically done as we know it.

So when the Euro - Currently at 1.34-1.35 USD makes its eventually move to "destiny" to under 1.0USD (btw - this is a certainty)

what do you think will happen to the overall market pricing of used Cats and Monos?

If you had played the FOREX market you could have paid for the boat from your profits.

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Firstly the Greek issue is having no bearing , Greece is 2% of the eurozones GDP, this issue will get resolved within the next few months

Currencies tend to undershoot so I suspect some strengthening of the euro to reoccur. Secondly the indications are that QE will not be effective and I suspect the Germans will put a stop to the ecb . That will cause a strengthening of the euro.

However I think the ecb would certainly like to see the euro well below $1:25

Dave

Dave, I wouldn't leave your day job and go into FOREX trading.