Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

[Friend of Nina]

Sunday morning reflection, one of our family's favorite poem..John Masefield.
Sea Fever
I must go down to the seas again, to the lonely sea and the sky,
And all I ask is a tall ship (Nina) and a star to steer her by;
And the wheel's kick and the wind's song and the white sail's shaking,
And a grey must on the sea's face, and a grey dawn breaking....
And all I ask is a windy day with the white clouds flying,
I must go down to the seas again, to the vagrant gypsy life,
And all I ask is a merry yarn from a laughing fellow-rover....
I must go down to the seas again......
May you all find your star to steer by. Cherie

[David_Old_Jersey]

Originally Posted by Friend of Nina

Ok does anyone have anymore new ideas for RCC? They can only do so much unless new information or senarios. Cherie

Am pretty certain that RCCNZ are best placed to work up possible scenarios (and to assess the likelihood of them to best use their SAR resources), given their knowledge of the area and conditions and to access / collate / consider all the info supplied by the various people involved.

Could still be that she waited out bad weather (more than once?) with simple comms failure and is still making painfully slow progress......but I fear we are close to the end of that window to be a possibility.

If something happened to her then IMO sounds most likely would have been within the 24 hours after the last reported contact (sounds likely they would have been in contact again for weather updates within that time frame even if no other regular comms were scheduled)........in that case either a sudden event or the more common; a succession of smaller events culminating in a major problem(s). Lots of things possible, some more likely than others - but even the unlikely possible nonetheless.

It could be that she lost a mast (with the comms?) or even 2, which whilst a major disaster is survivable onboard - just means she will be bobbing around awaiting rescue or is making very slow progress under a jury rig. Quite feasible that the chain of events started with loss of steering (mechanical or collision with debris) and in bad weather that could have overwhelmed her leading to a rig failure....that could have ended in a liferaft, but could also be survivable onboard.

The puzzle is that the EPIRB was not pressed, that could be a simple failure of the device (not so likely as a SPOT failure, but possible nonetheless - especially if events happened and it got dropped and / or immersed)......but it could be that the initial event(s) were considered survivable and that a SAR not necessary or due to the weather conditions considered more risky - and that events later proved otherwise without time to (go below?) press the button, so they went into the liferaft without........I am very conscious that my comments are lots of if, buts and maybes (and are of course not based on any information) - but my purpose in posting is simply to say that lots of scenarios still possible.

As I said before, the RCCNZ best placed to work up the scenarios. But IMO still too early to call one way or another, even if looking less than as hopeful as it was last week that she is bruised but unscathed.

[bazzer]

Lot of "Armchair Quarterbacking" going on in this tread so I'll join in with my two cents worth.
Did Nina not have a AIS transponder? If she did its likely that a commercial ship could give accurately her last known position. Logging is a feature on both class A and B. so a request should be made to all commercial ships and others in the area at the time to check their logs.
I'm not sure of the coverage there, but Spot Tracking works very well, at least it,has for me.
The two above items show the values of modern electronics and IMHO you are just plan crazy not to do a ocean crossing without one or two of them. There are other tracking devices as well, I believe all major ocean races insist upon them now, it's a,safety inspection requirement.
Obviously these devices do not stop a disaster from happening, but they certainly will help in the event of one occurring.

Thanks for the poem, my Hans Christian along with others has a "steering star" affixed to the bowsprit

[boatman61]

Well I'm the eternal optimist... it took me 41 days Beaufort NC to the Azores then another 35 to the UK... so I am aware of what can go wrong and slow you down out there...
Still in positive mode...

[bazzer]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Well I'm the eternal optimist... it took me 41 days Beaufort NC to the Azores then another 35 to the UK... so I am aware of what can go wrong and slow you down out there...
Still in positive mode...

Yes, but you set out in the middle of winter or in the hurricane season? Ie, dodging bullets as was previously quoted.

[Friend of Nina]

Yes sounds logical.





Cherie

[bazzer]

For what it's worth, here's a screen shot from weather4d of the current conditions if the area where Nina still is if , hopefully, she's still afloat. As you will see its highly likely she is being pushed towards the Eastern Auz coast, or if she is further south, back towards NZ. So hopefully SAR will come up with something. I wouldn't right her off just yet.
Baz

[rfnk]

Of course John Masefield got the idea from Spike Milligan, who wrote:

I must go down to the sea again
To the lonely sea and sky
I left my shoes and socks there
I wonder if they're dry?

Northeasterly flow onto our coast now so let's hope that's a boost for Nina.

Rick

[mbianka]

Originally Posted by bazzer

For what it's worth, here's a screen shot from weather4d of the current conditions if the area where Nina still is if , hopefully, she's still afloat. As you will see its highly likely she is being pushed towards the Eastern Auz coast, or if she is further south, back towards NZ. So hopefully SAR will come up with something. I wouldn't right her off just yet.
Baz

Indeed. I seem to remember a few months ago couple abandoned their sailboat in the same area even left the main hatch open and the boat drifted for bit of time until finally ending up on the shores of Australia where a helicopter crew patrolling the coast came upon it. Someone may have the name and link of those posts. So I think Boatman is right that there is still a good chance they will turn up and surprise us all.

[ternmarine]

Latest this morning ( 15 mins ago) from Search and Rescue;

1 July 2013: 10.30am
The search for the crew of the American 21m (70ft) schooner Nina missing en route from Opua in the Bay of Islands to Newcastle, Australia, has resumed today (1 July).
The Rescue Coordination Centre New Zealand (RCCNZ) has today requested an RNZAF P3 Orion to search an area north of Northland. The P3 Orion arrived at the search area at around 9.30am and will search until approximately 5pm. The search will use visual and radar methods to look for any sign of the missing schooner or its life raft.
RCCNZ Mission Controller Jeff Lunt said the search area, centred 160 nautical miles north of North Cape is expected to cover approximately 3,780 square nautical miles, has been calculated for a life raft search. If time is available and there’s daylight, the search area will be extended.
Today’s search follows a search yesterday of 4,830 square nautical miles north east of Northland and an extensive aerial shoreline search along the northern west coast of New Zealand on 28 and 29 June. The search areas have been determined by RCCNZ based on drift modelling from the last known position of the yacht on 4 June and two days of coastal searching.
RCCNZ is liaising with Rescue Coordination Centre Australia (RCC Australia), and will continue to review search options. RCC Australia is assisting RCCNZ with broadcasts on coastal radio. New Zealand Maritime Radio is continuing to conduct broadcasts in New Zealand’s search and rescue region.
Background
There are seven people on board the schooner Nina, six Americans (three men aged 17, 28 and 58, and three women aged 18, 60 and 73) and a British man aged 35.
To date, the RCCNZ has coordinated five searches based on different scenarios, covering a combined area of over 600,000 square nautical miles using an RNZAF P3K2 Orion aircraft. Two aerial shoreline searches have also been conducted (on 28 and 29 June) but no sign has been found of the vessel or its crew.
The schooner Nina, built in 1928, left Opua on 29 May and has not been heard from since 4 June, when the vessel was about 370 nautical miles west-north-west of Cape Reinga.
The vessel is equipped with satellite phone, a Spot device which allows regular tracking signals to be sent manually, and an emergency beacon. The emergency beacon has not been activated.
After concerns were raised by family and friends, the RCCNZ instigated a communications search on 14 June, using a range of communications methods to broadcast alerts to the vessel and others in the area.
Search summary
30 June
An extensive aerial shoreline search of 4,830 square nautical miles north-east of Northland. The P3 Orion arrived at the search area at around 8am and conducted an aerial and radar search until approximately 4pm.

29 June
An extended shoreline search for the crew was undertaken for a second day without success. RCCNZ tasked a helicopter to perform a coastal search from Port Waikato to New Plymouth. The Tauranga-based Phillips Search and Rescue helicopter departed at around 11.30am and was on scene at around 11.45am.
28 June
A twin-engine fixed-wing aircraft was tasked to search the shoreline and coast starting at Tauroa Point, along Ninety Mile Beach, north of Northland, and out to and around Three Kings Islands. “Unfortunately there was no sign of the vessel or crew," said RCCNZ Mission Coordinator Neville Blakemore.
The Hamilton-based Phillips Search and Rescue Trust fixed-wing Piper Chieftain aeroplane with the pilot and three observers on board left Hamilton at around 10.00am and arrived at Tauroa Point at around 10.45am, and searched throughout the day until 5pm.
26 June
A search was completed of 324,000 square nautical miles between northern New Zealand and the Australian coast, based on the vessel suffering damage but continuing to make progress towards Australia.
25 June
A search area of 140,000 square nautical miles was covered, to the immediate north-north-east of New Zealand, based on the vessel being disabled and drifting.
To date, no sign of the vessel has been found. Records show that conditions at the last known position for the vessel, on 4 June, were very rough, with winds of 80kmh, gusting to 110kmh, and swells of up to 8m.
For further information contact:
Maritime New Zealand Media Line
Phone 04 499 7318

[Friend of Nina]

Thank you so much.

Update. Using P3 Orion 160 nm north of north cape. Cherie

[opusnz]

I contacted RCC NZ (again) for clarification. Last know position is via Iridium sat phone and was S33 50, E 169 41 on Jun 4. Unlike the media reports, this is only about 150 or 160 nm from the tip of NZ.

They are doing a tough job but they are still searching and it helps explain why they are searching where they are.....

Still hoping for the best.

[Friend of Nina]

Ok now last lat and long from Spot on board was:


-34.13174 Lat 173.02081 long.

Does that mean about 63 miles difference? From last lat/long and when Spot quit??

[MarkJ]

Originally Posted by mbianka

Indeed. I seem to remember a few months ago couple abandoned their sailboat in the same area even left the main hatch open and the boat drifted for bit of time until finally ending up on the shores of Australia .

Good memory... Boat was 'Windego' but their route was quite different, and well to the north. They left Tonga to head to Bay of Islands, NZ and hit the big red button a week out during a storm.
That was in the second week of November (the hurricane season there) and the boat was found in NSW, Australia near Seal Rocks second week in february. Which means the boat without crew did a prety fast passage. But that was much further north and it would have had Easterly trade winds the whole time.


http://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/...elp-93248.html

[MarkJ]

Originally Posted by Friend of Nina

Ok now last lat and long from Spot on board was:


-34.13174 Lat 173.02081 long.

Does that mean about 63 miles difference? From last lat/long and when Spot quit??

No thats 166 nms difference. and a LONG distance in reality, see screenshot.
But NZ hasnt searched the eastern side of north Cape down to Whangery, have they?

(Note also at Spot location the continetal shelf comes up fast. Sometimes brings bad seas)