La Vagabonde's crossing

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by daletournier

Lodgic???, lol, lodgic gets in the way of feel good emotions..no no no.

On another note ,I'm in the San Blas right now and did sail past a sunken island that wasnt sunken a couple of years back, theres a couple actually. The cruising guide attributes this to global warming.

When I was younger it would have been called Erosion

[unbusted67]

Anyone have a full animation of these guy's crossing from predict wind that includes weather systems?

[fivecapes]

Originally Posted by Kolanorton

The European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) first drilled a core near Dome-C at 75°S 123°E 300 miles from Vostok.
The ice thickness there is 3,309m, the core was drilled to 3,190 m. It is the longest ice core in the world, where ice has been sampled to an age of 800,000 year's ago. Annual average temperature there is -54°C. Information about the core was first published in Nature magazine on June 10, 2004. The core revealed 8 previous glacial cycles. The warming and cooling cycles have a 100,000 year period. Homo sapiens evolved just 200,000 year's ago, leaving the culprit for the previous 7 warming periods still on the loose!

Or, put another way, you've introduced a permanent shock exponentially increasing in magnitude to the system and you expect the pattern to continue?

Genuinely curious.

[daletournier]

Lol....you cant say that, put your helmet on and duck.

Originally Posted by boatman61

When I was younger it would have been called Erosion [emoji3]

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by daletournier

It's good from a awareness perspective regarding catamarans being safe ocean crossers, I've never agreed with the long held narrative of many that catamarans aren't upto the task.

It not just cats ,its modern design fast boats, I'm all for the modern design monos coming out of europe, heavy ,slow double ender mentality is rapidly giving way to modern design as ocean crossing boats. Gast cruising averages are a good thing.

Well that's a no-brainer in my opinion. I wouldn't use a heavy double ender for crossing oceans even if you paid me to (well, maybe depending on how much you pay ). My boat, while immensely strong, has D/L of less than 200 and carbon sails, and we regularly do 200+ mile days. Not a racing boat, but far from a heavy double ender.



There can be no question that speed is a huge benefit for crossing oceans, vs. just bobbing around in a double-ender. One benefit of a fast, strong mono is that you don't need to turn the dial down in rough sea conditions -- when I'm fully crewed, we basically sail balls to the wall all the time and for days on end. My best ever day, 218 miles, was made with the wind ahead of the beam at 20 to 30 knots, driving the bow right through the waves a lot of the time.



The question is not whether or not a double ender; the question is whether something even faster, like an Atlantic 57, can be worthwhile even if it is more delicate (only 12 tonnes displacement!). I would not want to be in a North Atlantic storm in something like that. But if a bunch of speed plus latest weather routing can give reasonable assurance that you won't have to go through a North Atlantic storm, then that may change the equation. I believe people have cracked 300 miles/day in Atlantic 57's.


The Outremer 45 is a pretty modest boat and not much faster in most conditions than my mono (and surely slower in rougher sea conditions), yet they just flew across. Was it just luck that they didn't get into so much as a real gale on the whole passage, or is this the new state of the art? That is the question.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I'm biting my tongue with regard to the climate change discussion, but I'll gladly drift the thread in a different direction:


It kind of blew my mind that these folks were able to get across W to E and in this season without going through a single real gale. That is simply incredible to me. Everyone else I know who has done this passage has gotten whacked over and over again and even had to lie to a drogue once or twice. Even in season. Albeit at a higher latitude (to Ireland), and without this quality of routing. So here's a question for BW:


Is this the result of modern weather routing plus a reasonably fast boat?


If so, then that really changes a lot of things. It means that a fast catamaran could be used for a much wider range of cruising than I imagined. I was looking hard at an Atlantic 57 cat and I might look again. I wouldn't take such a vessel to the Arctic but for everything else this could really be the right thing, if it is really true that with speed plus this kind of intense weather routing we can even zip across the N. Atlantic from W to E out of season like this.


The idea of crossing oceans fast and with this kind of intense awareness of how the weather develops is very appealing. When we did the Arctic last year we did have someone helping from shore, but the routing was much less strategic than this and we did get whacked a couple of times, moderately. We just bash through -- that's why I sail a strong monohull. But I see there may be another way to do this, and it's intriguing.

Well if you look at the average speed most of the time it wasn’t fast.
Not saying it couldn’t have been, but it wasn’t. I feel sure when it was slower that was pro call, not a boat limit.
I think it was two things, one they got lucky, never underestimate luck in applying a one off thing to a trend.
Secondly, OK, maybe second and third, They had some real Pros calling the shots, both routing and on the boat. Pro’s really are better decision makers than us mere mortals.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Well if you look at the average speed most of the time it wasn’t fast.
Not saying it couldn’t have been, but it wasn’t. I feel sure when it was slower that was pro call, not a boat limit.


I think it was two things, one they got lucky, never underestimate luck in applying a one off thing to a trend.
Secondly, OK, maybe second and third, They had some real Pros calling the shots, both routing and on the boat. Pro’s really are better decision makers than us mere mortals.

Well, I think their average speed is running about 7.5 knots. That's pretty fast for an ocean crossing. They've had multiple 200+ mile days.



As to luck -- I'm not underestimating it, which is why I am asking the question. I'm interested in BW's views -- where did he go?

[Cherod]

Originally Posted by StuM

It matters a great deal when politicians listen to her ill informed rants and destroy economies.
It matters a great deal when XR types listen to her and disrupt the lives of Joe Public.
It matters a great deal when kids listen to her and suffer from all sorts of mental problems as a result.

Kids listening to her suffering mental problems ,,, where are you hearing that stuff ??? Maybe by now you have read the scientists opinion of her but still you persist with this garbage , if you are concerned with joe public , not just joe public present but joe public future you would be well advised to change your reading material

[a64pilot]

The old, tough, slow nearly indestructible boats come from an era of very reduced comms underway, no real forecast data. Routing if it existed was an experimental thing well heeled racers were experimenting with.
There was no GPS, and no magic box that if you threw in the water it would summon the Cavalry. Once you shoved off, you were in your own little world.

A Conestoga Wagon made a lot of sense for that trip to California back in the day, it was the intelligent choice for people who could afford one

I am glad the they made it without any real drama, I really am.
However it could have gone differently, they or any boat could have been hit with a major storm that wasn’t forecasted, think about it, many that do the most damage etc are the ones that didn’t act like they were supposed to. That happens less and less now.
But if you do believe what this voyage was about, then the Major, boat killing storms are getting bigger, more frequent and harder to forecast. Maybe it’s time to buy that lifeboat type of sailboat?

Cats have many advantages, from a systems perspective they are easy to have completely redundant but separate systems. Everything has a back up in the other hull, and not in storage, but installed and working. Everything even a second autopilot on a separate rudder.

But cold weather and ice? Not knowing much about Cats, but I doubt many production boats fit that bill. Saildrives and exposed Spade rudders don’t seem to be ice worthy, but I wouldn’t really know as I have never and will never be in ice myself.

From the buying an old boat, as opposed to new.
Everybody always acts like that means buying some derelict and entering a long, expensive refit spanning years.

But it doesn’t sometimes. There are just as many high quality hardly used older boats floating in Marinas that can be bought for a song when compared with new boats and they often have interiors that the new boats can’t because all the old growth dense teak is gone.
Yes they need to be fitted out as they spent their lives as floating beach houses, but that just means that you get to pick every single piece you want and install it they way you want to. Something that unless you go custom build that you don’t get to in a new boat.

I’ve always been frugal, but I’ve always bought new with the idea that if it was well maintained from the beginning that it would last much longer than average, I’m mostly talking cars here.
But several years ago I bought a used Miata, our first used car since we were kids. I bought it as it was the last year of the pop up headlights and I was sort of replacing our fist Miata from 89. Well long story short it was a fine car, lasted until the Daughter was hit and it was totaled.
Well, I decided then that I will buy no more new cars, yeah it took me until my mid 50’s but buying new is foolish.
You can get so much better, for so much less if you buy used.

Buying used doesn’t mean buying junk. Yes you can buy junk, but there are many high quality lightly used boats out there, you just have to look.

[Breaking Waves]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

As to luck -- I'm not underestimating it, which is why I am asking the question. I'm interested in BW's views -- where did he go?

It's a difficult question to give a crisp complete answer to.

Boaty is right at a high level, it was a late-season N Atlantic passage like many others. The routing was quite good from a blocking and tackling perspective (maintain good wind angles, stay out of holes, stay away from highest wind fields), but there was nothing exceptionally clever or sophisticated. And the 'luck' was about average.

I am going to guess that the view off LV is going to be that they had some serious weather. You are objectively exactly right in your assessment, BUT sailors have a tendency to look at gusts rather than at sustained speeds, and these guys are going to think they were in a whole bunch of 40kts and a bit of 50kts - basically in the front as each low moved over. And that will be a fair calibration vs other stories you will hear from sailors on their N Atlantic passages. The key here was they had Nikki, who has actually seen real bad weather before and could look out the window and say 'Ive seen rather worse, best we just keep going'.

They had some bad luck (that low totally stalling on them at the start) and some good luck (the TS tracking to its long-range forecast which allowed them to maneuver accurately) and probably it averaged out to typical for this season. At the start I had guessed (I think I said it here in the other thread debating how risky this venture was) that they would get rolled over by one true unavoidable gale - I'm sure they could have handled it just fine. They did do the 'slow down' to avoid sailing into a gale crush zone and that was good navigation and seamanship.

These systems zip by at a significantly fast pace - +20kts. Every bit of speed helps, but 200nm/day is the starting point for being able to play around the systems. More like 300 is where you really gain options - but that is really only available in the elite racing world. I've done a bit of work with Stan Honey, and the world really changes when you can sail at +system speed - then you can pick one system and surf it all the way across., and look in front of you for the next one you want - but again you need like a G-Class for that.

[jzk]

Originally Posted by Cherod

Kids listening to her suffering mental problems ,,, where are you hearing that stuff ??? Maybe by now you have read the scientists opinion of her but still you persist with this garbage , if you are concerned with joe public , not just joe public present but joe public future you would be well advised to change your reading material

She is telling people that ecosystems are collapsing and a mass extinction event is underway. Currently, the amount of children that live past age 10 is directly proportional to fossil fuel use. Fossil fuel is not just a money making scheme for a segment of society, but rather how most of society eats and moves around.

A super cool trip for a kid to experience. But she had Nikki fly back from Europe to join the team cancelling out any "benefit" from her not flying. Other than promoting LV that is.

[OldKetch]

Originally Posted by Cherod

Kids listening to her suffering mental problems ,,, where are you hearing that stuff ??? Maybe by now you have read the scientists opinion of her but still you persist with this garbage , if you are concerned with joe public , not just joe public present but joe public future you would be well advised to change your reading material

Please spend 2 minutes on google before ranting

"Children are increasingly suffering anxiety and grief about climate change, British psychologists said on Thursday, advising parents to discuss the issue in an age-appropriate way."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKBN1W42CF

And these guys are on the side of GT
https://www.climatepsychologyalliance.org/

[fivecapes]

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

I've done a bit of work with Stan Honey...

...respect

not that there wasn't before....

[OldKetch]

Originally Posted by fivecapes

Or, put another way, you've introduced a permanent shock exponentially increasing in magnitude to the system and you expect the pattern to continue?

Genuinely curious.

A "permanent shock"? I think you are underestimating the scale and complexity of natural processes. As a former geoscientist I always find it fascinating to engage climate protesters about their perception of historic climate change. None of them could guess that only in the past couple of 100 thousand years there were several major temperature fluctuations over 10C and that there were major sea level changes, well over 100m just in the past 12-16 thousand years. (see data below)

The scale, the speed, the complexity and the stochastic nature of geological/climate changes make projections based on "current" observations rather questionable. Yet, when there is lots of politics, big money and big egos involved to push simple messages, it is rather easy to forget the need for essential scientific scepticism.

[Cherod]

Originally Posted by boatman61

What light would that be..
Re the tone of my posts.. nothing different to my tone when I joined CF.. if anything I have mellowed.
If you mean the current knickers in a twist thread
I see it for what it is.. A Transat with some well know folk on board making it look a bigger deal than what it is for the many who never have or ever will do it..
Its just a Transat.. SHTF anytime of year out there as CF history shows, folk make it or they don't.
Climate Change has little to do with conditions they experienced, if anything the N Atlantic has mellowed since I first travelled it on an RN Frigate during the Cod War in the 60's.
You want to be a Greta Groupie go for it..

Nothing to do with being a Greta groupie , I am too old for that and have a beautiful wife thank you , but really , what nonsense , just how blinkered can you be , just another transat ?? such a shame , you are missing so so much , seems since the cod wars you have been on the wrong side .