Visit our Popular Forums

letsgetsailing3 · 22-12-2019, 09:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by daletournier

I'm not sure what that has to do with what I wrote. I'm not American, Democrat or Republican therefore no dog in your political game.

Your president is publicy on record (a number of times) pressuring the fed (Powell specifically) to lower interest rates and start Quantitative easing, he wants the usd to depreciate in order to be more competitive.

This is not my opinion, he is publicly stating this.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/11/trum...ance-debt.html

Come now. You brought up Trump as if it were relevant to this conversation. I didn't. His commentary, and the actions of the Fed, are publicly reported, and you can consider those as you decide where to keep your money.

Countries all over the world have increased debt - it's all relative. Which economy or corporation do you want to bet on at this point? You can, and should, vote with your investments. I recommend diversity in investment. In type, in industry, and in region.

Or you can choose not to invest, but there's risk in that, too.

letsgetsailing3 · 22-12-2019, 10:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by a64pilot

No but if you believe the market is cyclical, then you don’t spend the money you make in good times, you ferret it away, cause your going to need it to get through the bad times.
You seem to not believe in that.

Every single time that the popular belief was you can’t lose in (fill in the blank here) it wasn’t long before they were proven wrong.

There is some quote out there that says something like when the shoe shine boy starts giving stock advice, it’s time to get out. Joseph Kennedy in 29 I believe.

Ferret it away to what?

The problem is that if someone had pulled their money out of investments two months or two years ago, they'd have likely missed out on some significant appreciation in value. Studies consistently show that market timing doesn't generally work.

As the markets are relatively unpredictable, it makes sense to have a "bigger picture" view, that can survive either an upswing or downswing in the markets over the investment timeframe.

If you're young, your retirement account has time to recover. If you're older, you may need to be more conservative.

sailorboy1 · 22-12-2019, 10:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by a64pilot

No but if you believe the market is cyclical, then you don’t spend the money you make in good times, you ferret it away, cause your going to need it to get through the bad times.
You seem to not believe in that.

that's the second wrong assumption about me from you today

daletournier · 22-12-2019, 11:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

Come now. You brought up Trump as if it were relevant to this conversation. I didn't. His commentary, and the actions of the Fed, are publicly reported, and you can consider those as you decide where to keep your money.

Countries all over the world have increased debt - it's all relative. Which economy or corporation do you want to bet on at this point? You can, and should, vote with your investments. I recommend diversity in investment. In type, in industry, and in region.

Or you can choose not to invest, but there's risk in that, too.

Hmmm, sorry seriously not understanding where your going with this. I was answering Pelagics post, where we were discussing currency manipulation, Trump came up because hes on record wanting to manipulate the usd by lowering interest rates, I wasnt accusing Trump or the Republican party, I was just stating a fact, not bad mouthing Trump, in fact as Pelagic said he maybe justified in doing so, I'm not trying to be political here in anyway if that's what your suggesting.

And who said I'm not invested in anything?

daletournier · 22-12-2019, 11:39

Quote:

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

Ferret it away to what?

The problem is that if someone had pulled their money out of investments two months or two years ago, they'd have likely missed out on some significant appreciation in value. Studies consistently show that market timing doesn't generally work.

As the markets are relatively unpredictable, it makes sense to have a "bigger picture" view, that can survive either an upswing or downswing in the markets over the investment timeframe.

If you're young, your retirement account has time to recover. If you're older, you may need to be more conservative.

Text book stuff, hope it works well for you, only time will tell. I think differently, and so far its served me well. But I acknowledge many will agree with you.

cyan · 22-12-2019, 11:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by daletournier

And yes your dollar is very strong, I know as I have aud, its lost 40% of its value relative to the usd since I started cruising away from home, so trust me I know.

Seems like the AUD vs USD is now right in the middle of the highs (2:1) and lows (1:1) over the last 20 years, though.
It's interesting to consider exchange rates when planning to cruise. If one were in the business of exporting goods, perhaps a very strong home currency would urge one to pack up and cruise earlier. If one's home currency was very weak relatively, maybe one would just keep profiting on the exports? Sure, that's oversimplifying a certain case, but I will personally be annoyed like Dale if the USD goes super weak just in time for us to turn international cruising into a full time activity...

letsgetsailing3 · 22-12-2019, 11:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by daletournier

Text book stuff, hope it works well for you, only time will tell. I think differently, and so far its served me well. But I acknowledge many will agree with you.

When markets go up, they make everyone look like a genius. But there is data, collected over time, that indicate how people can invest safely and conservatively.

And I have found that the harder I work at understanding investments, the luckier I've gotten.

daletournier · 22-12-2019, 11:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by cyan

Seems like the AUD vs USD is now right in the middle of the highs (2:1) and lows (1:1) over the last 20 years, though.
It's interesting to consider exchange rates when planning to cruise. If one were in the business of exporting goods, perhaps a very strong home currency would urge one to pack up and cruise earlier. If one's home currency was very weak relatively, maybe one would just keep profiting on the exports? Sure, that's oversimplifying a certain case, but I will personally be annoyed like Dale if the USD goes super weak just in time for us to turn international cruising into a full time activity...

I'm not sure how the usd weakens a great deal as everyone else is easing at the same time, it's the" best looking horse in the glue factory "and will probably stay that way.

letsgetsailing3 · 22-12-2019, 12:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by cyan

Seems like the AUD vs USD is now right in the middle of the highs (2:1) and lows (1:1) over the last 20 years, though.
It's interesting to consider exchange rates when planning to cruise. If one were in the business of exporting goods, perhaps a very strong home currency would urge one to pack up and cruise earlier. If one's home currency was very weak relatively, maybe one would just keep profiting on the exports? Sure, that's oversimplifying a certain case, but I will personally be annoyed like Dale if the USD goes super weak just in time for us to turn international cruising into a full time activity...

If you know you're going to cruise in advance, you can always hedge currencies if you're at a favorable rate. You can just buy an ample amount of the currency that you think you'll be needing.

Companies do this all the time.

But for most people, it's probably not worth the bother. It's part of the cost of international travel.

cyan · 22-12-2019, 13:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

If you know you're going to cruise in advance, you can always hedge currencies if you're at a favorable rate. You can just buy an ample amount of the currency that you think you'll be needing.

Companies do this all the time.

But for most people, it's probably not worth the bother. It's part of the cost of international travel.

Yeah, probably not gonna scoop up CFP Francs, Fijian dollars, and Vatus as a hedge. Just gotta hide those US dollars somewhere when the ATM is not practical.

letsgetsailing3 · 22-12-2019, 14:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by cyan

Yeah, probably not gonna scoop up CFP Francs, Fijian dollars, and Vatus as a hedge. Just gotta hide those US dollars somewhere when the ATM is not practical.

If you were going from the U.S. to the med for a few years, I could see transferring some funds into Euro. Particularly if your plans involved buying a boat that's already there.

Otherwise, it's part of the "joy" of travel. In some places, your hard currency is king.

pt49 · 22-12-2019, 14:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

It's part of the cost of international travel.

In 1970 I began 10 years of backpacking all over the world, and within 12 months, the IMF and Nixon decided that the FIAT currencies needed to be inflated (the world had all these new printing presses), so they decided to take the world off the gold standard.
NO WARNING... just POOF, in one day the AUD was devalued by 20% and the travelers checks I carried dropped in value against the GBP (I was in the UK at the time).
All I was doing was walking down the Strand and suddenly my pockets got lighter.
At home in Australia nobody noticed at first, because an Aussie $ was still an Aussie $... but I noticed immediately because I was overseas.

In 1989 I bought a 60 acre farm in Eastern Victoria... I had $30,000 and went to my solicitor and told him I needed some money, he found an investor who loaned me $250,000 at 16.75% on 1st mortgage and 18% on a 2nd mortgage and I was a farmer.
2 years later interest rates went up to 21% so I sold the farm to a dentist who went broke and sold it 9 years later for the price he paid.

And you guys wonder why I buy Bitcoin... the crash is coming guys and your high flying market stocks will drop over 50% in value so fast you won't be able to get rid of them.

It will be like 1929, and much much worse than 2008.

pt49 · 23-12-2019, 03:01

Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway last AGM revealed that they held 25% of capital in CASH.
There's only one reason to hold such large reserves of cash... the market is OVER VALUED.
Why do that?
Buffett knows a correction or crash must happen... and the ONLY investors who win in a correction/crash are those with the funds to buy the dip... PERIOD.

Berkshire Hathaway is a company valued at about $550 billion... I predict this company will be worth well over $1 trillion after the correction that is coming.