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Old 20-12-2019, 19:08   #481
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Re: Budget Be Damned

Being a total non expert when it comes to money, my personal belief is that no one really knows what is going to happen because there is simply no historical precedent, it’s never run this long before, even a few years ago when I was talking to my money guy before I retired he told me we were heading towards global negative interest rates, and I grinned thinking he must be drinking the cool aid, negative interest rates as a concept is silly, that can’t happen it’s completely illogical, and yet look where we are now just a few years later.
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Old 20-12-2019, 19:22   #482
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Re: Budget Be Damned

It seems I'm the only one happy to ride the good times.Thats ok with me.
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Old 20-12-2019, 19:47   #483
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Re: Budget Be Damned

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Being a total non expert when it comes to money, my personal belief is that no one really knows what is going to happen because there is simply no historical precedent, itís never run this long before, even a few years ago when I was talking to my money guy before I retired he told me we were heading towards global negative interest rates, and I grinned thinking he must be drinking the cool aid, negative interest rates as a concept is silly, that canít happen itís completely illogical, and yet look where we are now just a few years later.
I'm reading a book at the moment called the Ascent of money, basically the history of money right upto 2008.

One thing thats for sure is the financial system is massively complex, very few of us have a clue (that definitely includes me) just how huge and complex it is, al
so it's guaranteed all bubbles burst, history shows this, money is a claim on real wealth, agricultural, manufacturing etc, when the claims and real wealth get way out of balance corrections happen , they vary in size, this we do know. How far out of balance are they now? Longest economic expansion in history, can it go on for ever? If there's a correction how big will it be?

We are definitely all guessing but I feel that enjoying today is great BUT planning for tommorow and entertaining the idea that a big downturn is a real possibility is prudent.
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Old 20-12-2019, 19:56   #484
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Re: Budget Be Damned

All of this leads me to believe that being flexible and dynamic enough to comfortably survive off the grid , favors someone who has adjusted to the cruising life outside the main first world locations.
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Old 21-12-2019, 11:14   #485
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Re: Budget Be Damned

Iíve been buying stocks with a different motive- tricking myself into rooting for millennials. Iím a Gen Xíer, and Iíd found myself continuously annoyed for years by tales of the success of Elon Musk. Boy genius defies convention to become a billionaire. And heís younger than you. It made me angry and frustrated and that wasnít helping anyone. It was creeping in to my overall attitude towards everyone in that age range. Grumpy old man syndrome was setting in. So I bought some stock in Tesla and sure enough, I found myself rooting for Elon. When the windows broke on his truck demonstration, before I would have laughed at him. Now, I was like ďOh man! Thatís a major bummer dude!Ē and Iím pleased to report my general attitude towards millennials has been shifting towards positive. Iím still shaking my head, but not my fist. A major attitude overhaul, all for a few hundred dollars that I can get back. It worked for me.
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Old 21-12-2019, 12:45   #486
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Re: Budget Be Damned

So, the best place to hide money is in hard assets, like a nice sailboat! I like this plan.
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Old 21-12-2019, 13:17   #487
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Re: Budget Be Damned

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So, the best place to hide money is in hard assets, like a nice sailboat! I like this plan.
Best for your state of mind for sure. But not generally for your savings, i.e. net worth.
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Old 21-12-2019, 13:42   #488
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Re: Budget Be Dam

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All of this leads me to believe that being flexible and dynamic enough to comfortably survive off the grid , favors someone who has adjusted to the cruising life outside the main first world locations.

Sure, but if your lifeís savings were to evaporate, itís going to be tough, because I donít care who you are, you need to buy things.

My plan and I hope itís sound is to have only about half of my income be from 401kís etc. the rest is from Retirement pension, eventually SS etc. actually when SS comes on line for me in 9 years, I wonít need the investments.
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Old 21-12-2019, 13:46   #489
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Re: Budget Be Damned

Actually I believe if you look back historically, a good place to have money in stocks if it hits the fan is the liquor and beer industry it seems in hard times people find the money to drink.
That and I’d assume some kind of essential industry or maybe in vice if I use that term correctly, but that surely has to be risky in more than one way.
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Old 21-12-2019, 13:48   #490
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Re: Budget Be Dam

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Sure, but if your lifeís savings were to evaporate, itís going to be tough, because I donít care who you are, you need to buy things.

My plan and I hope itís sound is to have only about half of my income be from 401kís etc. the rest is from Retirement pension, eventually SS etc. actually when SS comes on line for me in 9 years, I wonít need the investments.
If your life savings evaporates, regardless of where you live it's going to be rough, but a lower COL life and location will make it easier
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Old 21-12-2019, 13:53   #491
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Re: Budget Be Dam

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If your life savings evaporates, regardless of where you live it's going to be rough, but a lower COL life and location will make it easier
Iíd say that depends, and what it depends on is your ability to find some kind of work. Oftentimes those places you speak of have no use for a foreigner, especially one trying to find work.

Even the subsistence types in Alaska need parts, fuel, bullets, new traps, actually quite a few things.
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Old 21-12-2019, 14:20   #492
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Re: Budget Be Damned

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So, the best place to hide money is in hard assets, like a nice sailboat! I like this plan.
Boat = asset (why isnt there a lmao emoji)

Boat = a money pit. Have you not been reading my monthly budget threads
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Old 21-12-2019, 15:26   #493
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Re: Budget Be Dam

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If your life savings evaporates, regardless of where you live it's going to be rough, but a lower COL life and location will make it easier
Not neccessarily so... Sth East Asian countries are very low cost places to live.
Rents for 1 bedroom apartments are from $300 to $600 a month, and that is in major cities. Rentals in suburbs is considerably cheaper and in villages extremely cheap (but you gotta put up with roosters crowing eartly morning, kids running around, neighbors etc.)

Millions of expats live in Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Cambodia etc on only $400 to $1,000 a month including rent, power internet and food.

The Australian old age pension is roughly AUD$1,800 a month, so these countries are very attractive retirement places for us.
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Old 21-12-2019, 19:09   #494
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Re: Budget Be Dam

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Sure, but if your lifeís savings were to evaporate, itís going to be tough, because I donít care who you are, you need to buy things.

My plan and I hope itís sound is to have only about half of my income be from 401kís etc. the rest is from Retirement pension, eventually SS etc. actually when SS comes on line for me in 9 years, I wonít need the investments.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmau...-cant-fulfill/
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Old 21-12-2019, 19:31   #495
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Re: Budget Be Dam

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I understand that, and it’s why I didn’t plan on ever getting SS in my planning, will I? I certainly hope so, but I can live without it, I’m doing so now in fact. But no SS and no Military pension and I can still live, but it would be tough, especially as I assume anything that would make both those go away would be catastrophic and likely my investments would also evaporate. All it would take is runaway inflation, in fact you could still get all your benefits still, but inflation could make them worthless.
Germany in the 20’s, I believe they called that hyperinflation?
I’m withdrawing 3.4% of my investments now, so of course as long as this run continues I’m worth more every year, not as much more as some that are more heavily vested in the market, but still it’s increasing, not decreasing.
I’ve got enough cash for a couple of years to ride something out, but I do concede that in truth all of this could disappear overnight, it’s not like it was gold buried in the backyard.

But the ones that will get hurt, and get hurt badly are the ones living their high standard of living because they are doing so on borrowed money and tell themselves they are smarter for doing so, within a few months of their income drying up, they won’t have anything.
At least I’ll have a place to live.
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