Budget Be Damned

[AKA-None]

So hard assets like property 2008, stocks and bonds 1930. Jobs, again 1930-1940. Or does someone have another idea?

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Sure, but if your life’s savings were to evaporate, it’s going to be tough, because I don’t care who you are, you need to buy things.

My plan and I hope it’s sound is to have only about half of my income be from 401k’s etc. the rest is from Retirement pension, eventually SS etc. actually when SS comes on line for me in 9 years, I won’t need the investments.

The only way my life savings would evaporate is if there was a massive failure in the First World Banking Institutions and I think that would also affect your 401 and SS security.

My savings are substantial, totally liquid and I have resisted the temptation to lock them in to increase them thru "investments"

By living conservatively, investing only in rural land with farming and fishing sustainability, rental properties on leased land in Subic and the off the grid boat life, I don't think in terms of Budget

I think in terms of flexibility and simplicity

I am not envious of jet setting tourists and if and when I ever need to Adjust to a simpler 'Barter Type' of lifestyle
..... I think I have anticipated what options to prepare for rather than budgeted for it

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by AKA-None

So hard assets like property 2008, stocks and bonds 1930. Jobs, again 1930-1940. Or does someone have another idea?

Hard assets to me are , income producing properties, fundamentally sound businesses that produce stuff that people need, gold & silver.

Cash is also good in a deflationary environment BUT I believe our banking system is more fragile than most realize, savers are unsecured lenders to the bank and countries around the world are actively depreciating their currencies, you have a president that is publicity demanding the fed do just that in the form of lowering interest rates and introducing Qe.

[WindwardPrinces]

Originally Posted by daletournier

Hard assets to me are , income producing properties, fundamentally sound businesses that produce stuff that people need, gold & silver.

Cash is also good in a deflationary environment BUT I believe our banking system is more fragile than most realize, savers are unsecured lenders to the bank and countries around the world are actively depreciating their currencies, you have a president that is publicity demanding the fed do just that in the form of lowering interest rates and introducing Qe.

The President is proposing that we support business growth and he is fixing trade agreements. Democrats, on the other hand, are proposing free healthcare, free college, and debt forgiveness. Which of those strengthens the value of the dollar?

The American economy is actually quite strong. You can invest, or choose not to. There are risks and rewards either way. Avoiding investments may not be the safest move.

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by WindwardPrinces

The President is proposing that we support business growth and he is fixing trade agreements. Democrats, on the other hand, are proposing free healthcare, free college, and debt forgiveness. Which of those strengthens the value of the dollar?

The American economy is actually quite strong. You can invest, or choose not to. There are risks and rewards either way. Avoiding investments may not be the safest move.

I'm not sure what that has to do with what I wrote. I'm not American, Democrat or Republican therefore no dog in your political game.

Your president is publicy on record (a number of times) pressuring the fed (Powell specifically) to lower interest rates and start Quantitative easing, he wants the usd to depreciate in order to be more competitive.

This is not my opinion, he is publicly stating this.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/11/trum...ance-debt.html

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by WindwardPrinces

The President is proposing that we support business growth and he is fixing trade agreements. Democrats, on the other hand, are proposing free healthcare, free college, and debt forgiveness. Which of those strengthens the value of the dollar?

The American economy is actually quite strong. You can invest, or choose not to. There are risks and rewards either way. Avoiding investments may not be the safest move.

And yes your dollar is very strong, I know as I have aud, its lost 40% of its value relative to the usd since I started cruising away from home, so trust me I know.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...9-8-1028432047

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by daletournier

Hard assets to me are , income producing properties, fundamentally sound businesses that produce stuff that people need, gold & silver.

Cash is also good in a deflationary environment BUT I believe our banking system is more fragile than most realize, savers are unsecured lenders to the bank and countries around the world are actively depreciating their currencies, you have a president that is publicity demanding the fed do just that in the form of lowering interest rates and introducing Qe.

Currency Manipulation is one of the most unfair of economic practices but what confuses me Dale is:
Who is doing the manipulation?

Canada and Australia were on par just a few years ago to USD, now about 40% less.. So is it the CDN & AUD along with others currencies that are being kept low by their countries?

If so, then Trump would be right to resist that.

I remember a brilliant move by the UK was when they decided to peg the Hong Kong $ to the USD at about 7.8 thus encouraging buyers and investors to deal in commodities with security.

Why don't other countries do that?

I also remember buying AUD @ about 0.58 to US dollar as I thought I might retire there. A few years later, I luckily sold near par when I chose the Philippines instead.

To me it was a signal to keep my cash savings flexible.

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

Currency Manipulation is one of the most unfair of economic practices but what confuses me Dale is:
Who is doing the manipulation?

Canada and Australia were on par just a few years ago to USD, now about 40% less.. So is it the CDN & AUD along with others currencies that are being kept low by their countries?

If so, then Trump would be right to resist that.

I remember a brilliant move by the UK was when they decided to peg the Hong Kong $ to the USD at about 7.8 thus encouraging buyers and investors to deal in commodities with security.

Why don't other countries do that?

I also remember buying AUD @ about 0.58 to US dollar as I thought I might retire there. A few years later, I luckily sold near par when I chose the Philippines instead.

To me it was a signal to keep my cash savings flexible.

I truly do not understand how it works. Australia had its problems for sure ie household debt, but it still dosent make sense. Being the world's biggest quarry it's a commodity backed economy, I would assume this would be good for the currency? same with Canada. But as I said I dont claim to understand how this works.

When the aud was $1.10 our interest rates were relatively high , Australia didnt get smashed compared to the US which dropped its interest rates to zero. Its reversed now with the RBA's cash rate being .75% and the Fed's being 2.5%.

How does the GBP have so much value, I've never understood that one?

The other crazy thing is the US dollar is strong yet after the longest economic expansion in history the best they could do was get the cash rate upto 2,5%, before reversing course and easing again.

Economies around the world are on life support, most are stimulating through low, zero or negative interest rates, the US is basically doing QE again in the Repo market ,although they arent calling it that, Europe has negative interest rates, Australia is still dropping interest rates and is discussing implementing QE.

If people understood how money is created (fractional banking) it's easy to understand why debt must continue to grow, it can never shrink ,if it does then the money supply shrinks and things go bad, thus zero and negative interest, to encourage more borrowing. The US will head back to zero as will Australia, and most likely MMT is in the way.

Jim Rickards "Currency Wars " is about the race to the bottom, I should read it again.

[sailorboy1]

I started this thread and it is starting to really crack me up

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

I started this thread and it is starting to really crack me up

You I assume are of the opinion that the current situation will continue, that good times are the norm.
People thought that in the 20’s too. Of course internet stocks were always going to increase in value as the internet was expanding daily, and you can’t lose in a house, it’s the one sure thing, doesn’t matter how much you borrow, your a fool not to make money with other peoples money.

You know this really reminds me of the last place I worked and why I retired, the Big Business guy who owned it was smart, real smart. Of course you borrowed as much money as the banks would lend you and plowed all the borrowed money back into the business, have to have that great accounting software, it was going to increase profits, and all those millions spent on automated lasers and 6 axis mills etc were really going to increase production, can’t lose.

And yet the business failed and filed chapter 11, right in what would seem to be a great time to be in business what with the economy being so strong and all.

Not to make it sound as if it’s simple, it’s not. But we as a Nation, and. I assume we as a world are of course running up our credit card debt, and doing so at an every increasing rate, which is required to maintain the status quo, increasing rate at which you accumulate your debt.
It’s OK, we can do this as long as we can keep transferring our Credit card debt to another card that offers zero interest for a period and when that period is up, simply transfer to another card.
However maybe one day there won’t be another card we can transfer to for zero interest, then that will be a very bad day.

You know I watched people do that 20 or 30 years ago, they were so smart, they had the system beat.

I’m not picking on you, or trying to insult you, many people believe this roll will continue indefinitely and we can just literally creat money with no end, without inflation.
I’m just a pessimist, I’m afraid one day we will have to pay the Piper, and I don’t know what will happen then, will we set up a payment plan and try to do so over generations, or will we let the bill come, due all at once?

I don’t have a clue, I’ve read that it took 93 yrs for Germany’s WWI debt to be paid off, I have no idea if that’s true or not.

[sailorboy1]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

You I assume are of the opinion that the current situation will continue, that good times are the norm.

I didn't read the rest, but you know the saying about assuming?

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

You I assume are of the opinion that the current situation will continue, that good times are the norm.
People thought that in the 20’s too. Of course internet stocks were always going to increase in value as the internet was expanding daily, and you can’t lose in a house, it’s the one sure thing, doesn’t matter how much you borrow, your a fool not to make money with other peoples money.

You know this really reminds me of the last place I worked and why I retired, the Big Business guy who owned it was smart, real smart. Of course you borrowed as much money as the banks would lend you and plowed all the borrowed money back into the business, have to have that great accounting software, it was going to increase profits, and all those millions spent on automated lasers and 6 axis mills etc were really going to increase production, can’t lose.

And yet the business failed and filed chapter 11, right in what would seem to be a great time to be in business what with the economy being so strong and all.

Not to make it sound as if it’s simple, it’s not. But we as a Nation, and. I assume we as a world are of course running up our credit card debt, and doing so at an every increasing rate, which is required to maintain the status quo, increasing rate at which you accumulate your debt.
It’s OK, we can do this as long as we can keep transferring our Credit card debt to another card that offers zero interest for a period and when that period is up, simply transfer to another card.
However maybe one day there won’t be another card we can transfer to for zero interest, then that will be a very bad day.

You know I watched people do that 20 or 30 years ago, they were so smart, they had the system beat.

I’m not picking on you, or trying to insult you, many people believe this roll will continue indefinitely and we can just literally creat money with no end, without inflation.
I’m just a pessimist, I’m afraid one day we will have to pay the Piper, and I don’t know what will happen then, will we set up a payment plan and try to do so over generations, or will we let the bill come, due all at once?

I don’t have a clue, I’ve read that it took 93 yrs for Germany’s WWI debt to be paid off, I have no idea if that’s true or not.

Your not a pessimist, I get over the labels of pessimist and optimist, they just get in the way. People throw the word around, and towards others that say things they dont want to hear, regardless of whether there's truth in what they say.

When has it ever gone on for ever? that's just not how things work. This time its different?
Theres alot of very educated, very rich and very experienced people that can argue "it's not different this time", people always think it is.

[sailorboy1]

tell me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe anyone on this thread has said this high growth will go on forever

let the search for a sound bite to be taken out of content begin

[Mixman1]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

now am on the West Coast of Florida on my way to New Orleans and Texas and then who knows.

Hey Sailorboy1! I am in Seabrook, TX. Just north of Galveston Island. If you get up this way, give me a shout. I'd love to have a beer and pick your brain!

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

tell me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe anyone on this thread has said this high growth will go on forever

let the search for a sound bite to be taken out of content begin

No but if you believe the market is cyclical, then you don’t spend the money you make in good times, you ferret it away, cause your going to need it to get through the bad times.
You seem to not believe in that.

Every single time that the popular belief was you can’t lose in (fill in the blank here) it wasn’t long before they were proven wrong.

There is some quote out there that says something like when the shoe shine boy starts giving stock advice, it’s time to get out. Joseph Kennedy in 29 I believe.