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Old 21-12-2009, 06:36   #211
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The big problem, at least for me, is how you manage to meet lubberside obligations in the interim (for me, a 13-year-old presumably college-bound kid, exwife, boat payments for 2 more years, etc.) and save enough to build up a cruising kitty.
Actually under the original premise of this thread, the meltdown/collapse of civilization - all your problems would evaporate as the economy and governments collapsed. You just need to have enough fuel and food onboard to make your "escape" to freedom.
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Old 21-12-2009, 07:22   #212
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The first eruption of an upcoming disaster will be the collapse of the financial world and related institutions/markets. Of which we experienced already a little ouverture.
This ouverture however might be followed by a full adagio as we are not at the end of the financial crisis but just in the beginning. Much more has to come is what I have been reading lately.
Nevil Shute, wrote something like this in his book "Trustee from the Toolroom", where one could not bring cash out of the country. Some 30 years ago, this was the case with the UK and France.
Now with the Euro, such disasters might be smaller but there are two countries already in the EU on the brink of a financial collapse, i.e. Greece and Spain. Still not yet a straightforward outbreak, but it could happen.
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Old 21-12-2009, 07:24   #213
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Actually under the original premise of this thread, the meltdown/collapse of civilization - all your problems would evaporate as the economy and governments collapsed. You just need to have enough fuel and food onboard to make your "escape" to freedom.
Escape from the free world... to freedom. Hmmmm. Interesting words.
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Old 21-12-2009, 07:35   #214
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The first eruption of an upcoming disaster will be the collapse of the financial world and related institutions/markets. Of which we experienced already a little ouverture.
This ouverture however might be followed by a full adagio as we are not at the end of the financial crisis but just in the beginning. Much more has to come is what I have been reading lately.
Nevil Shute, wrote something like this in his book "Trustee from the Toolroom", where one could not bring cash out of the country. Some 30 years ago, this was the case with the UK and France.
Now with the Euro, such disasters might be smaller but there are two countries already in the EU on the brink of a financial collapse, i.e. Greece and Spain. Still not yet a straightforward outbreak, but it could happen.
Yes, I can remember when we couldn't take money out of the UK. That was under another Labour Government. What was interesting about this, was that you couldn't take money out of any of the Iron Curtain countries, almost right up until the collapse of the Soviet Union. It didn't matter though, as their money was valueless anyway. There is a moral there somewhere.
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Old 21-12-2009, 20:13   #215
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Yes, I can remember when we couldn't take money out of the UK. That was under another Labour Government. What was interesting about this, was that you couldn't take money out of any of the Iron Curtain countries, almost right up until the collapse of the Soviet Union. It didn't matter though, as their money was valueless anyway. There is a moral there somewhere.
I do not think the problem was as we first think. Taking money out of the country was not removing - say - British pounds and banking them in Switzerland. It was the taking British pounds and converting them to US Dollars or Swiss money or South African Kreugerands. That removed "investment" capital from inside the home country. So long as the money stayed in the form of British pounds and was not converted by direct exchange or indirect exchange by buying foreign good or services - the money supply was protected. It was the converting of one currency to another outside the home country that reduced the real money supply.
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Old 21-12-2009, 20:39   #216
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While it is very hard to argue a yacht is a "safe" investment, it might be a good time now to buy and turn your cash/equities into a tangible rather than wait for inflation to dissolve your solvency.

So, lets say we were to prepare for some financial collapse. You have the boat, and you have some bucks. But bucks can inflate away to nothing. What COULD you buy to have around that would be a good replacement for cash. Something tangible that would have intrinsic value. The value would have to high (condensed) enough to hold a sufficient quantity on a boat.

I heard a version of this question on another site. The obvious answers were gold and silver. But there are problems with that. How do you measure it. How do you prove it. How to chop it up in to small enough denominations. Others suggested ammo. That has a whole other set of problems. Food is not sufficiently dense or durable to use to stockpile wealth. Over there no one ever came up with a good substitute. But hey, they were not sailors.
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Old 21-12-2009, 20:52   #217
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Remember what that nutcase in the movie "Waterworld" wanted to trade?

PAPER!!


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Old 21-12-2009, 21:05   #218
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In the "doomsday" scenario wealth will probably be meaningless.

My father (a depression era man) advised me when I was young to develop a useful set of handskills. "People who know how to fix things never starve"

He related a story about his travels immediately following WWII. He entered a small native village in Asia. The water pump was broken. He rolled out his toolkit, fashioned a new diaghram from a piece of leather and was treated as a "water god" for the duration of his stay.

Point being, no matter where you pitch up you better bring something useful to the "tribe" or you will be voted off the island. In New Guinea they still like to eat "long pig" in certain places. Make sure you are filling the pot with water and not yourself.
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Old 22-12-2009, 04:09   #219
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In the "doomsday" scenario wealth will probably be meaningless.
Hello?????

Wealth and the capacity to make it will be most important, imho. Those that are rich as so for a reason and may be ale to better diversify their investments: buy their armageddon boats and their nuclear winter houses, ranches and guns. They will better be able to stock their larders from the last remaining supermarkets and will be the first to operate a still to make whiskey for the remnants of society.

Others will just give up. An entrepreneur never gives up, they just go from bankruptcy to millionaires again.
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Old 22-12-2009, 04:25   #220
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Good question. What wealth could you store? Well it certainly won't be the plethora of celebrity trade-marked junk that we call valuable at present.

Certainly, skills will be of value as ex-calif says. Repairing engines, solar panels, wind generators, water-makers will be high values in our world. As will spare parts. Food will always be a sought after item, so perhaps a training in genetically modifying crops might be useful. Perhaps we could have a thread where we all experiment in manufacturing and developing salt-water rice growing maybe?

What did they trade in the old days before currency existed? It all goes back to the food, water, shelter, cloths, and security issues. Those of us whom have led sheltered lives in civilised countries and have never had to fight to defend ourselves will be in the pooh. Ex military chaps and chapesses will be of value, and those types generally have a higher moral code and honour than many business types, so they are good people to be around. It boils down to initiatives, skills and abilities again - the "valuable people". Thus we need to raft up with people with a range of knowledge and skills, not forgetting: that each of us needs to bring something to the group. A new kind of flotilla holiday group .
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Old 22-12-2009, 04:33   #221
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Hello?????

Wealth and the capacity to make it will be most important, imho. Those that are rich as so for a reason and may be ale to better diversify their investments: buy their armageddon boats and their nuclear winter houses, ranches and guns. They will better be able to stock their larders from the last remaining supermarkets and will be the first to operate a still to make whiskey for the remnants of society.

Others will just give up. An entrepreneur never gives up, they just go from bankruptcy to millionaires again.
Good point, but many, are where they are, due to exploitation of other group members maybe? Don't get the idea I am a Trotski though. Better to be part of their group and have ten percent of something rather than 100% of nothing.
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Old 22-12-2009, 04:40   #222
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Yeah, its a tough question. It makes you realize the value of money as an extreme concentration of wealth.

Skills are a no brainer but WHICH skill could be difficult. Frankly I think "cobbler" would be very good.

But we all get old or sick. What can we carry around that concentrates a significant bit of wealth? Copper? You can make lots of things from copper. But I doubt its sufficiently concentrated. Aluminum might be better. Maybe some kind of chemicals. Something to purify water? Simple bleach? It needs to be something everyone needs but is very expensive in small quantities.
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Old 22-12-2009, 05:07   #223
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A financial collapse is the sword of Damocles that may come down any moment. Safe investments do not exist, unless you own a goldmine.....
We have seen how banks are capable to invoke havoc in world economy and we do not know precisely what will be next in front of us. Very few countries are selfsupporting as they all shed their agriculure. The Netherlands is exemplary.
The country is overcrowded till the rim, normal traffic circulation nationwide does not exist anymore.
It is a dark picture, nevertheless a very real one.
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Old 22-12-2009, 05:54   #224
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Skills are a no brainer but WHICH skill could be difficult. Frankly I think "cobbler" would be very good.
Actually the various skills to operate and maintain a full time cruising boat are acquired over the years of living on a boat. In the community of full time cruisers you will find all the various skills from physicians, nurses, electricians, carpentry, mechanical (engines, etc.) and natural organizers. It already exists in the anchorages that constitute the various nexis of the cruising sailor. Generally places were there are established cruiser vhf nets already contain a complete little community that is - except for external parts and fuel supplies - fully capable of sustaining themselves.
- - I assume the original post inferred both a partial collapse such as the world is currently climbing out of and also a total collapse. In the partial collapse diversification of assets not only across a spectrum of investment vehicles but also across international borders is best. Having assets in non-"home country" markets and currencies shields against the collapse of one particular currency and economy. For instance, currently USA bank interest rates on savings are below or near to 1%, whereas in eastern countries you can currently get 10% interest on savings. What with the access provided by internet banking moving money and getting access is not difficult.
- - In a total collapse - which was predicted by MIT super computer (1960's style) back in the 1960's to occur around year 2050 (plus or minus a decade) - money and investments in anything other than farm land and cottage industries are pretty much zero'd out. So personal mechanical/agricultural skills are very valuable. Or if in a sailboat, foraging, fishing and hunting are the most valuable to a continued existence along with "escape and evasion" skills to allow you to keep what you have from being "taken" from you.
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Old 22-12-2009, 06:00   #225
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