Non-stop to Bahamas from Halifax, Canada - in late fall: Suicide? Advice please.

[CSailor]

Thanks again, everyone, for your navigation and routing suggestions. Very helpful!

Still don't know what we're going to do, but at least we know our options. Crawl the coast, or go deep-sea, via Bermuda. The weather links and equipment suggestions (inReach, for instance) are much appreciated.

That's it... the rest of this post isn't relevant, but should put paid to gossip:

Daily Mail article: Yup that's my sis, Heather, gosh my mom is proud... check out the date of publication, 18 September 2014

Latest article re Refugee Travel Doc in Halifax Chronicle Herald: A puff piece, "bright and shiny!" and 12 months and 6 attempts for a travel doc they issue in a few hours when spooked; ain't exactly something to cheer and get all "yay Canada" happy pandas! about. Especially as f*cking Elena over with the renewal for 12 months, left her (and thus me - wasn't going to ditch her and sail off, after all) stranded, and overstaying, in USA: that makes us BOTH inadmissible, regardless of papers.

So no, immigration problem isn't solved. BUT at we have some valuable information about navigation, sailing, getting to the sun AND saving our asses... yet again.

Thanks again, forum of cruisers, you're great!

I'm signing off this thread,
Meg, out

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by skipmac

I looked at Elena's website and if I may, have a question. Maybe I missed something but the website shows you sailing from Europe to British Columbia but I found nothing that showed how you got a boat from BC to Halifax. So what happened in between?

Never mind. Dug down a little deeper in the web site and found the rest of the story in the press release section.

Reminds me of line from the Greatful Dead, "what a long, strange trip it's been."

[Kalinka1]

Originally Posted by Morgan Stone

It looks like we're admissible to Bermuda for the usual six months. Thanks for pointing that out! I just kind of forgot it was there. What's the implications for getting there from Halifax?

The boat has a 30 liter/hour watermaker, so we good for H2O, and we're piling on the groceries. We're good with long passages, as long as the weather doesn't kill us or the boat.

Halifax to Bermuda should take about a week i think. so doable with a good window.

[Kalinka1]

Originally Posted by Kalinka1

Halifax to Bermuda should take about a week i think. so doable with a good window.

Should have read further before commenting

[phiggins]

This reminds me of my first trip to Cuba in 2005. We arrived in mid October from Florida but a few weeks later a sailboat called the Mar which takes tourists around Halifax harbor in the summer arrived. The crew consisted of bunch of young guys I think there were four and the owner. They said they nearly froze to death coming down past New York. They said there was originally seven when they left Halifax. I asked what happened to the other two, they said they ate them, hahahahahaha.

[CSailor]

Meg and Elena(starter of this thread) is back for more advice.

Hilarious about eating the crew, BTW , if someone can suggest a good wine paring for crew, served cold...

Now we have a weather/climatic question.

USA is NOT an option (sordid details below), so we are looking at a straight line for Bermuda, (as a way-point, unless they let us land/enter/anchor) and then onto Bahamas, as wind allows.

We are currently sitting in Halifax, watching a weather window go by because it's not long enough to get us to Bermuda before we'd get thrashed. We're thinking we need 6 days to be on the safe side get to Bermuda from Halifax.

Here's the question: What is the likelihood of a 6 day weather window (wind < 35 kts, and < 10 kts if from the south) occurring in this part of the North Atlantic this year?

To remind: Staying in Halifax is NOT an option. We've taken 'it' in the stern, from Canada, for a decade now. We're taking back our lives. We will NOT let Immigration take another year of our lives by freezing ourselves into the ice for their immigration/refugee optics. Clearly, Canada doesn't like something about us; is it that we are LGBT and invisible (look and act like regular folk), is it that we ask nothing from Canada but to let us be together and travel, is it because we refuse to be victims and give up our dreams, or is it because we are cruisers?

We'd been yammering on about writing to President Trump and asking for permission to enter/transit USA... thinking our Trump card would be playing the LGBT card, and then, his admin playing that LGBT-on-the-run-from-Canada card for their own optics... but it just didn't feel right. Why? Cuz it isn't USA's problem! USA didn't do this to us, Canada did! If anyone ought to fix it, it should be them. And let's face it, we're really NOT into playing cards... unless it's poker and the stakes are money and not our lives, and the drinks are free.

To that end we've written an open letter to the right leader: The Prime Minister of Canada, you can read it, and a cover letter to the US and World press, on Elena's site http://www.cadenza.ca

or deep-linked at http://www.cadenza.ca/index.php/en/p...-letter-header

Thanks again, for everything, forum of cruisers: the advice, the laughs, the community, your voices, and your concern.

If the letter moves you, push it to the press, shout it from the rooftops, only the media can move the Canadian government... that and pandas, cute panda cubs! Happy panda! Panda panda panda (a little SEO pandas, goes a long way).

[CarlF]

Six day weather forecasts are not particularly reliable. Three day forecasts are very accurate.

I would leave with a good three day window and get daily forecasts at sea. If you get going soon, the "typical" weather odds are with you. If the forecast turns against you, either return to Canada or go to a US port until you can safely resume your journey. Moderate headwinds in otherwise good weather are no reason to give up - just slow down and take a few extra days. If it's too bumpy, heave to if your boat does that or just reach back and forth under reduced sail until the wind gets better.

If you go to a US port, you are "Seeking Refuge" for your ship from dangerous weather. You are not trying to enter the country. This is a right under international law. Be sure to keep a copy of the bad weather report. Some officer might argue, but it's not an unreasonable request and they'd probably let you stay after a lecture about how to do it right next time. Anchor. Do not leave your boat. You should notify the commander of the port but you might take the calculated risk that no one will notice a boat quietly anchored for a few days.

[CSailor]

Originally Posted by CarlF

Six day weather forecasts are not particularly reliable. Three day forecasts are very accurate.

Thanks CarlF, I guess I should have asked for peoples' past experience with weather and windows at this time of year. And right about forecasts, getting beyond 3 days and we're into the GRIBs: computer models based on historic data; the further out in time, the more of a guess it becomes.

How useful are the GRIB charts, BTW?

[Suijin]

Originally Posted by Morgan Stone

Thanks CarlF, I guess I should have asked for peoples' past experience with weather and windows at this time of year. And right about forecasts, getting beyond 3 days and we're into the GRIBs: computer models based on historic data; the further out in time, the more of a guess it becomes.

How useful are the GRIB charts, BTW?

You can look at the 5 day forecast, but you can't trust it. Consider it a best guess.

As for how useful GRIB charts are, they can be extremely useful, specifically in charting a course that marries your boat's capabilities to how the wind is expected to shift over time. In your case looking at the grib files before you leave should give you input to an initial course in relation to the rhumb line. If you have the ability to download GRIBs offshore you can continue to factor them into your course plotting.

They're also very useful in visually assessing the shape and movement of weather features, like HIs and LOWs and troughs. They provide a bit more detail and concreteness to synoptic maps.

[Foeboat]

If you have a well equipped boat and a decent weather window, there should be no problem making it safely to Bermuda. If disaster strikes, the Canadian tax payers will send the Canadian Coast Guard to risk their lives to attempt to save you -- as they would for anyone in their waters. You didn't ask for it but here is a suggestion: stop complaining about how Canada has treated you. Immigration is not a right. Canada takes its share of the world's refugees but they don't take everyone. What you are asking is that Elana be given a Canadian passport so she can live, not in Canada, but somewhere else. No sane country would want someone who will not be paying taxes and will likely represent a significant liability. Note that, unlike the US where citizens are taxed on their worldwide income, Canada does not tax their citizens living and earning offshore. I suggest Elana apply for a passport in Russia and, here's a hint, don't mention any details about her partner preferences. Good luck.

Foe

[CarlF]

Assuming there are no hurricane threats, October is a pretty good weather month in these waters. November has worse odds. December much worse odds. January...you get the picture.

The most frequent problem is a gale forming at Hatteras and going north of Bermuda right across your track. This is one reason to stay way offshore from Hatteras. It gives you time to get out of the way after you see it at Hatteras.

You don't need GRIBS to see one of these

This gets a bit into the weeds but a good tool is to look at the "564" line on the 500mb weather chart. Storms tend to track just north of this line as they cross the Atlantic. You'd like to be south of the 564 line. As winter approaches, this line moves south. In spring it moves back north. Right now, it's still north of you.

Ocean Weather Services - The use of the 500 MB Chart at Sea

Here's the chart for 24, 48, 72, and 96 hours. Look for the line marked 564.

Ocean Prediction Center - Atlantic Marine

But I'd go the moment you get a good three day window. There will be fewer and fewer windows as winter approaches. And don't try to forecast weather yourself. Use a weather routing service. Great peace of mind. Unfortunately, Canadian Herb Hildeberg has retired as he did it for free. I haven't needed it recently so am out of date.

[CSailor]

Originally Posted by CarlF

... look at the "564" line on the 500mb weather chart. Storms tend to track just north of this line as they cross the Atlantic. You'd like to be south of the 564 line. As winter approaches, this line moves south. In spring it moves back north. Right now, it's still north of you.

Ocean Weather Services - The use of the 500 MB Chart at Sea

Here's the chart for 24, 48, 72, and 96 hours. Look for the line marked 564.

Ocean Prediction Center - Atlantic Marine
...

Thanks again, CarlF, this info and the Ocean Prediction Center site are excellent resources.

[SVTatia]

Originally Posted by Foeboat

...

If disaster strikes, the Canadian tax payers will send the Canadian Coast Guard to risk their lives to attempt to save you -- as they would for anyone in their waters. You didn't ask for it but here is a suggestion: stop complaining about how Canada has treated you. Immigration is not a right. Canada takes its share of the world's refugees but they don't take everyone. What you are asking is that Elana be given a Canadian passport so she can live, not in Canada, but somewhere else. No sane country would want someone who will not be paying taxes and will likely represent a significant liability. Note that, unlike the US where citizens are taxed on their worldwide income, Canada does not tax their citizens living and earning offshore. I suggest Elana apply for a passport in Russia and, here's a hint, don't mention any details about her partner preferences. Good luck.

Foe

Well said Foeboat, took my words.
I am getting annoyed of this bashing. I tried to help in the beginning, now I just wish you make it out and don't come back.
As Foeboat stated above, I'll help pay for your rescue if you don't make it.
Good luck. Over and out.

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by SVTatia

Well said Foeboat, took my words.
I am getting annoyed of this bashing. I tried to help in the beginning, now I just wish you make it out and don't come back.
As Foeboat stated above, I'll help pay for your rescue if you don't make it.
Good luck. Over and out.

It's not a question of paying for the rescue. It's the ability to make the rescue.

It's 800 nm from Halifax to Bermuda. Not a problem to get a clear weather window for the first few days so the most likely place to run into a problem would be at least 400-500 miles south of Nova Scotia. First, that's way out of Canadian waters and operating area. Second, most SAR helicopters like the Jayhawk used by the USCG have a working range of 300 nm from base, well short of where the OP would likely need rescue.

[nwdiver]

From what I see you sailed non stop from Turkey to the Canary Islands, then through the Panama Canal and non stop to BC, then you got back to the central US East Coast on the boat........NOW you need advice to go back south????? I don't get it......