Six Months on... Global Collapse Destinations?

[Christian Van H]

Dont feel too bad for not having come up with it, AnotherT34c. If you had the time to sit around all day and do nothing but come up with plans to screw people out of their money while doing little to no actual work, you could do it too! Save time for a manicure though... If this sounds funny, you probably don't know anyone in the financial sector.

[starfish62]

Originally Posted by Tspringer

To me... real estate valuations are all about cash flow ratios. Its a numbers game. If I cannot rent a property for at least 1% of its value in monthly rent, then the home is overpriced. Period.
Terry

One of the main reasons for "the bubble" was that fundamentals were discarded. Everyone was counting on appreciation as the major component of their return, rather than cash flow. Here in Palm Beach County we had guys go in and buy 30 condos in a building expecting to flip the contracts. Quite a few people made a lot of money. A lot lost it all. We had friends urging us to take out second mortgages in order to flip contracts on new construction in St. Lucie County. Most of those people have lost their homes now, and price points here have returned to roughly 2003 levels.

[MoonlightShadow]

I've got to echo what Wotname said. I love this site. I spoke to my Bank Manager today, and quoted him some of the stuff off this string. He just sat there open mouthed, and didn't say a word!

At the end of my spiel, he just said "Where did you get all that from!?!" I said "well, from Tao, and Van H and the other cruisers". The experience was priceless. As he left, he said "I've gotta join your yacht club"

And then, my Boss bought me lunch. A good day at the office. Thanks guys. (and galls). You lot are inspirational.

[Sam Plan B]

I can tell you this. I have applied for a UK work visa under their Tier 1 Visa program. In general, any American with a college degree who made over $75k last year can qualify. In July I am planning to take my Columbia 41 to London. My investments (or what's left of them) will follow me there. I think the present administration in Washington either is totally clewless or is intentially trying to drive the Market down. You never hear any FDR quotes like, "All we have to fear is fear itself". No Reagan quotes like, "America's brightest days are ahead". All there is is "this crisis....this crisis....increas on the ______tax." For me, if I am to be taxed and hated for my money I would rather be taxed and hated in England. At least there the beer is better.

[Ram]

Sam
Do you really think its going to be any better over there?
Give Obama a chance for Gods sake man hes only been in office a little over a month and hes left to clean up this whole mess made by the Bush party

[Celestialsailor]

Lions and Tigers and Bears...Oh my.

From 2002 to 2005 my Kona home had increased in value 300% in. In the last year it was seen going up 25% in one month! Everyone was elated. It scared the crap out of me. I was trying to explain to people that the market can not sustain such increases. I was labeled as a chicken little. I was actually told by a Real estate broker "Why then are mortgage companies loaning so freely if the market is going to collapse"? I sold it immediately and built another house and in essence had a house paid off.
I took advantage recently and bought another boat in New York for 1/3 the value of it normally is. But as far as cruising...Where are you going to go? Cruising will still require money. Money to outfit, insurance and so on. As has been mentioned before, we do not know what the political effect is going to be on other countries. especially 3rd world. If nothing else, I may hide out south of the border as we call it in the US. For no other reason than not listening to the doom and gloom of it all...

[TaoJones]

Originally Posted by Celestialsailor

<snip>As has been mentioned before, we do not know what the political effect is going to be on other countries, especially 3rd world. If nothing else, I may hide out south of the border as we call it in the US. For no other reason than not listening to the doom and gloom of it all...

Well done on your real estate moves, CS, and congratulations on picking up a new (to you), nicely discounted vessel.

I understand what you're getting at when you mention cruising "south of the border, down Mexico way." Without a doubt, Mexico, Central America and much of South America will be much more economical than the US or Caribbean. Here's a link to a short article in 'Lectronic Latitude recently, called "Economy's Weak, but the Dollar's Strong."

Latitude 38 - The West's Premier Sailing & Marine Magazine

One drawback, and it's a major one, is the recent surge in violence in Mexico as a result of the drug wars. Until the drug cartels resolve their differences, whether or not the Mexican government and law enforcement actively pursue the narco-traffickers or turn a blind eye and accept the "contributions" that come their way for doing so, Mexico may be more dangerous than it's worth. Even if one manages to stay well-clear of the drug shoot-outs, kidnapping has become a thriving enterprise in Mexico, just as it is in many Latin countries.

It's a shame, of course, because Mexico and Central and South America offer some of the loveliest cruising grounds on the planet.

Will you be delivering your New York vessel to the Big Island yourself, CS?

TaoJones

[Celestialsailor]

Originally Posted by TaoJones

It's a shame, of course, because Mexico and Central and South America offer some of the loveliest cruising grounds on the planet.

Will you be delivering your New York vessel to the Big Island yourself, CS?

TaoJones

Actually...no. I will be meeting it in Ca. Hawaii is a terrible destination. It is very remote to anywhere and the local government sees cruisers and liveaboards as a subspecies. Something they brought with them from Japan...There...I said it! I will be roasted for this one!

[TaoJones]

Originally Posted by Celestialsailor

Actually...no. I will be meeting it in Ca. Hawaii is a terrible destination. It is very remote to anywhere and the local government sees cruisers and liveaboards as a subspecies. Something they brought with them from Japan...There...I said it! I will be roasted for this one!

Probably not, CS - anyway, the truth is always a valid defense!

The peculiar approach to liveaboards so apparent from the establishment in Hawai'i (which is to say, those predominantly of Japanese ancestry) is well-documented. It is undoubtedly cultural, and is a reflection of the fact that in much of Asia, those who live on the water rather than the land are the poorer people. In virtually all cultures, those who have the least are looked down upon by those who are blessed to have more, and not to want.

In my experience, the shrinking minority of kama'aina Hawai'ians don't share that attitude, nor do the majority of haoles.

So am I to understand that when you meet the new vessel in California, you don't intend to return to the Big Island? Will you be commencing a cruise from there (California), possibly heading down the Mexican coast into the little latitudes, then possibly joining the puddle-jumpers for the passage to the Marquesas?

TaoJones

[Celestialsailor]

[quote=TaoJones;

"So am I to understand that when you meet the new vessel in California, you don't intend to return to the Big Island? Will you be commencing a cruise from there (California), possibly heading down the Mexican coast into the little latitudes, then possibly joining the puddle-jumpers for the passage to the Marquesas"?

TaoJones[/quote]

I'll put it to you this way Tao...Everytime I announce my plans, they tend to fall through. If ya know what I mean. But I will say IMHO that it is a lot easier to leave on a 30 than it was my 38. I had a crew last time on the 38 but unfortunately had some weather and gear failure. Not shortly after that had a serious health issue. Serious enough not to take life for grant it. This economy stuff may have really mattered to me if that didn't happen...but it doesn't. I think Dylan said "Life is an Ocean but it ends at the shore".

[aj_the_first]

Originally Posted by westsail42

my $.02.
Problem is, for the US at least, the "next generation" of workers (todays kids/teenagers) are less likely to produce the innovation and entrepenurship this country has been fortunate to provide that revs up the economic engines. The US is/will be outpaced by other countries. Meaning, it wont be the US alone that will turn the global economy around. And as was said earlier in the thread, the US will have lost all that much more economic clout.

I'm sorry, I have been reading with interest and biting my tongue, knowing that a 28 year old may not have much to contribute to this thread without a larger lifetime of experience, BUT I HAD to respond to this...

I won't say I am offended, but I do think your opinion is outdated. I might have agreed with you a decade ago, but now...

Generation "X" (and the generation before them) were uninspired degenerates on a larger scale than the generation of the baby boomers and those that followed the boomers (the "JFK" generation as I like to think of them). A majority of Congress and major businesses are currently being led by brave, inspired men of that older JFK generation, but they are aging and approaching (and exceeding) retirement age, and while I know it looks like there are few that can replace them, I have this to say:

Those Gen Xers have had the lowest levels of voter turnout for the age group they occupied, they aren't involved and they frequently seem to make assertions that they are always voting for "the lesser of two evils" and "the world will always be full of corruption" (a common sentiment among MANY people), but it is a pervading thought that causes a social environment of scepticism, cynicism and lack of initiative.

My generation (The "Millineum" generation as I have heard us called, 18-28 year olds) are participating at the polls and in non-profit organizations in record numbers (for our age group). We aren't yet old enough to be running for Congress or topping out the corporate ladder, but we are fed up with the "no one can change the world" mentallity of our mentors and teachers (Many of our high school and middle school teachers were jaded early Gen-Xers) We want to prove them wrong. We are inspired on a large scale, more so than the average "youthful optimism", we are actually DOING.

Our aging business and political leaders were a generation that was inspired. They rememeber JFK telling them that they could land on the the moon by the end of a decade, and they didn't doubt, they accomplished. They did not ask "what their country could do for them", they asked how they could help out. They led businesses and held political offices at youthful ages becasue of their drive, and they stayed there for a long time because the generations that followed them lacked the desire to do better.

I see a STRONG pervading desire in my generation change the world for the better and work hard to do it. Many of us are fed up with the "the world is corrupt, nothing will change" mentallity, and we are setting out to prove them wrong. Like I said, we aren't yet old enough to do it on a large scale, but we will be soon. Inspiration catches on.

I don't want this next paragraph to be too politically biased, but...
Obama is inspiring my generation in record numbers. Even if he can't pull us out of an economic tailspin, even if his policies cause us to fall on our faces even harder, the greatest thing he has given us is a leader that came from NOWHERE, "pulled himself up by his boot straps" as I have heard the older generations say, and spoken to us as a Nation of equals. (as opposed to the last three presidents all being privilaged Yale alumni who took the "I got this, and all other opinions be damned" approach) Obama talks to us like we can do something to make us AND our neighbor better, he talks to us like it is OUR country to take an interest in and to rebuild, something that Bush certainly didn't do, heck, Bush hardly even spoke to the nation. Obama is a leader, and a self-built leader at that. He may not lead us in the right direction (Though I certainly hope he does!) but as a genuine leader (and not just a guy that "I'd like to have a beer with") he will inspire others to lead with the same zeal. He is inspiring my generation like JFK and MLK inspired many others. So, like Obama and his policies or not, he is building a generation of inspired leaders that will pull us out of this economic disaster if he can't.

I think you will see major business leaders and political offices change hands from 60-70 somethings right into the capable, inspired hands of the 30-somethings of my generation, skipping a few decades of jaded generations in between. Nothing against those generations, they just responded to the times, and when the world has already been run by the same powerful leaders for a decade or more without policy change, you tend to not see a way up or out.
But I think that the social attitude/environment fluctuates just like the economy and political opinion, and you are about to see a large upswing of positive, inspired thought and leadership from my generation.

Just like those boys that came out of the Great Depression and made men and leaders of themselves in WW2, and the generation decades later that listened to JFK and MLK talk about a better world and went on to change it, my generation, now decades later, will be the next group of world-wide movers and shakers.

All that being said, I will conceed that our school systems aren't really up to the task of producing the world's top minds right now, but my generation will soon take over our school administration systems as well. We already make up a decent portion of the teachers...

Sorry if I repeated myself a lot, I tend to do that when I am typing passionately.

I'm currently serving as an officer in Iraq and have already been to Afghanistan, and I plan on saving the world right after I sail around the world.
CPT Andrew Lea

[Christian Van H]

CPT Lea...Wonderful post! Several here have forgotten the ages of the men and women now fighting for us every day, all around the world. Although I have worked from the day I left school, I have (luckily) never fought for our country. I cant tell you how much I appreciate those who have, and are currently in harms way. I can also tell you that many, many of us here feel the same way about our new President. Thank you, Andrew. YOU DA MAN!!!

[sneuman]

Originally Posted by David_Old_Jersey

That's one of the best / most succinct pieces I have read on the situation......apart from "If you are not scared, it means you haven't understood the problem"

Made me late for work

I highly recommend this award-winning radio documentary. It is a splendid piece of explanatory journalism and it is fascinating (read, not boring). Click on "full episode" and listen:

This American Life

[TaoJones]

Originally Posted by aj_the_first

<snip>
Sorry if I repeated myself a lot, I tend to do that when I am typing passionately. <snip>

I, for one, rejoice in your passion, Captain Lea. It's encouraging to read the thoughts of someone so earnest. I don't doubt for a moment that you will be among the many from your generation (hopefully) who will help to correct this country's dangerous drift off-course.

That said, I think you may have read something into Westsail 42's excellent post that isn't really there. I don't believe he's attacking a particular generation and bemoaning the country's fate at the hands of slackers. Rather, I believe he's pointing out that one of the results of the current financial train wreck will be that today's generation of kids/teenagers will be hamstrung by the fallout from this fiscal mess.

Of course, if I'm reading Westsail incorrectly, I hope he will point that out.

Originally Posted by sneuman

I highly recommend this award-winning radio documentary. It is a splendid piece of explanatory journalism and it is fascinating (read, not boring). Click on "full episode" and listen:

This American Life

I would also like to second sneuman's recommendation of the program he mentions. Of course, there is one member of this Forum (no names) who will undoubtedly find it "simplistic."

TaoJones

[Sam Plan B]

For myself I think this is a fine time to expatriate. I will be taking my Columbia 41 to London in July. The Brits have the "Tier 1 Visa" program that seems to be directed at Americans and facilitates their immigration. Essentially Tier 1 permits a US citizen with a college degree and $80k in income in 2008 to obtain residency and a work permit. Of course, living and working in England opens all of Europe to cruising.