Friend found some bitcoins he'd forgotten about lol

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by crankysailor

You are right.. it is not gold. It is something better.

That doesn't mean that it is here to stay or that it won't be a bust etc.. but it *can* work and it can lead to a changed world in ways most folks haven't yet even begun to grasp. This is virtual gold that can be moved without barriers and control world wide without big brother or governments sticking their fingers in your pie. Not only that but the underlying fabric of crypto currencies promises to deliver something much much bigger even than a currency from the people for the people.. a world wide trust database.

The implications are enormous.. buying a boat? check the title of the boat instantly. Transfer the title to me upon paying for it.. with no way of "cheating". Math protects your transaction so that if I payed for it, it now belongs to you and everyone in the world can see it. Imagine loaning money to a complete stranger in nigeria (he he) .. no problem. A smart contract and you are done.

No need for lawyers anymore!!

Yes.. the dreamers amongst us can think of a techno utopia, where mankind is all the better thanks to a worldwide trust database. Where this eliminates corrupt banks and politicians.. yes.. I want in.

Unfortunately I do not underestimate the level of human greed.. the powerful are not going to go down without a fight.. it will be declared illegal. It already has been in some countries. Folks are speculating on it to make a quick buck.. maybe it is all necessary as part of the transformation.. if it happens.

But if you think this is just some scam to get you go buy monopoly money etc.. think again. Do you really think the people of Venezuela flock to it cause they have too much money and they are all stupid? or that bitcoin mining now uses more electricity than all of Ireland cause the world has been caught up in a Ponzi scheme and no one sees it?... It truly is something with the potential to change the world. But I am sure odds are that we as a species will f*ck it up. We always do.

With freedom comes responsiblty, you think the world's ready for that... Lol. Who will you blame if you lose your cold wallet? no one to sue, just you!

I do agree with you regarding it changing our future, I also see it being regulated to a crippling effect.

Early crazy days. How about a gold backed Hashgraph coin? Now that would be interesting!! Money, currency, decentralised, fast transactions, no miners.... is that possible??? Well above my paygrade.

[rbk]

Cranky’s got the right idea. My problem with bitcoin is scalability & interoperability issues, it’s slow and the higher the price the higher the transaction costs. Bitcoin has first mover advantage and that is it. It has become a household name and as the tech evolves we will most likely see money move out of BTC and into something with more intrinsic value, that can take the scalability demands of a ‘global currency’, interoperability across fiat and crypto alike, transactions speeds that can rival Visa’s network (one of the fastest) but without using credit based system and near zero transaction fees. It’s not far off (like in the next six months you’ll see live commercial applications) to be able to pay directly to businesses and individuals alike in any currency using nothing but a smart phone either linked to your bank account or being stored in an offline wallet, either directly by tapping or sending a payment online that can settle in seconds regardless of where in the world the purchaser and seller are. As cranky mentions the ability to escrow funds for payment or held in trust can be done without the use of trustees or lawyers. No more swift numbers and days waiting for wire transfers. The one analogy that really took me was that you can track a pizza in real time from the oven to your door...anyone able to do that making a 200 or 200,000 wire transfer that can take a week? Nope, but soon you won’t have to cause before you can track it (which you can), the transaction will be complete.

[andyft]

Cranky I have a 1985 Dickerson 37 aft cockpit ketch for sale. I have been restoring her, she has many upgrades, new parts etc. Willing to sell at a reasonable price. Location ct. river Let me know if you are interested, Andy

[transmitterdan]

Ironically bitcoin is down about 40% today...

[TJ D]

Originally Posted by transmitterdan

Ironically bitcoin is down about 40% today...

Indeed. I wonder what the price would be if everyone who wanted to sell was actually able to do so? There's a good article on CNN about a guy who bought $100 worth just for kicks, and had a heck of a time getting transactions done. This seems to be the norm.

Pure gambling here.

I still wish I would have bought some a few years ago, though!!

[crankysailor]

Originally Posted by TJ D

Indeed. I wonder what the price would be if everyone who wanted to sell was actually able to do so? There's a good article on CNN about a guy who bought $100 worth just for kicks, and had a heck of a time getting transactions done. This seems to be the norm.

Pure gambling here.

I still wish I would have bought some a few years ago, though!!

Yes.. at this point this is just gambling on a highly volatile speculative market. No doubt..

On the other hand, since the number of available bitcoins is fixed and new bitcoins are mined at an ever decreasing rate until the total number of possible bitcoins is reached.. what do you think the price would be if people really started buying them en masse.. sure.. the downside is 12000 USD.. but the upside on this thing almost has no ceiling. But if some major shifts in the world economy happened again (think 2008), accompanied by some distrust on major currencies (US, Euro, etc) and people flocked to bitcoins for example.. we'd have so much money trying to buy a limited supply (what was it, 21Mio?) of bitcoins.. pfft.. you'd have a one million USD a bitcoin.. it boggles the mind.

Lots of ifs.. still.. maybe putting something you can afford to lose on it is worth a gamble.. I mean, we all like casinos don't we?

[hellosailor]

Interesting couple of articles about bitcoin in the WSJ this week. Among other things, they were calculating the finite limit of bitcoins that can ever exist, due to the finite number of numbers that will qualify, and then looking at bitcoins as a percent of all currency, so it becomes reasonable to calculate what percent of the global "money" might ever be in bitcoin. And folks playing the futures options on them.

And, apparently "I forgot I had some" is common enough that there are companies who will attempt to reclaim/crack your password for a nice fee now, because there are so many people in similar fixes. IIRC the estimate is that over 17% of all bitcoin has been lost or mislaid, and is gone forever.

Which gangster was it, Babyface Nelson maybe? Who was asked why he robbed banks and replied "Because that's where the money is!"

Much easier than screwing around with cybercoins.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by crankysailor

You are right.. it is not gold. It is something better.

That doesn't mean that it is here to stay or that it won't be a bust etc.. but it *can* work and it can lead to a changed world in ways most folks haven't yet even begun to grasp. This is virtual gold that can be moved without barriers and control world wide without big brother or governments sticking their fingers in your pie. Not only that but the underlying fabric of crypto currencies promises to deliver something much much bigger even than a currency from the people for the people.. a world wide trust database.

The implications are enormous.. buying a boat? check the title of the boat instantly. Transfer the title to me upon paying for it.. with no way of "cheating". Math protects your transaction so that if I payed for it, it now belongs to you and everyone in the world can see it. Imagine loaning money to a complete stranger in nigeria (he he) .. no problem. A smart contract and you are done.

No need for lawyers anymore!!

Yes.. the dreamers amongst us can think of a techno utopia, where mankind is all the better thanks to a worldwide trust database. Where this eliminates corrupt banks and politicians.. yes.. I want in.

Unfortunately I do not underestimate the level of human greed.

You might still be underestimating the intelligence of the public, and the possibilities for fleecing them via a crypto-currency or some other opaque and unregulated financial vehicle.

Heck most people have trouble with retirement investing, let alone futures, derivatives, CDOs, etc. Even the major financial institutions get it wrong (or commit crime) through obfuscation; anyone still up for some AAA-rated subprime mortgage debt?

Do you really think the people of Venezuela flock to it cause they have too much money and they are all stupid? or that bitcoin mining now uses more electricity than all of Ireland cause the world has been caught up in a Ponzi scheme and no one sees it?... It truly is something with the potential to change the world. But I am sure odds are that we as a species will f*ck it up. We always do.

Venezuela's currency is devaluing faster than BTC was rising, so little surprise there. Other than that, and criminals seeking anonymity, the BTC is currently in tulip bulb mode, with most people not understanding the why, only that there's currently a magic beanstalk growing out of this particular bean, and they want some. Due to that greed thing, perhaps the world contains enough rubes that the bubble will continue to rise for a while longer.

Despite a math/engineering background, it took me a few tries to get my head around blockchain. I'm there now, and I now appreciate just how useful blockchain is going to be for security and tracking. But I bet less than 1 in 20 really understand much beyond "I could get hella rich from this".

I remain skeptical about how practical or ethical it is for some person or company to create a pseudo asset and then pump up a market for it. Ponzi is kicking himself in his grave for not thinking this up himself. Each new crypto-currency has a slightly different "mining" scheme. But they're doing well because Bitcoin and $$$...

I can't help but think that crypto-currencies are currently a net loss to the world economy: all the energy that's going into mining it, all the investment money that could be doing something actually useful instead being diverted into crypto-currencies, and all the late adoptors who will be burnt by the bubble collapse.

Blockchain makes the most sense to me as a better technology to facilitate our routine transactions. Eg- adopted by VISA and MC to speed up transactions and improve security and accountability. Or as a cash replacement.

[Peregrine1983]

Nice post Lake Effect.

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

"I remain skeptical about how practical or ethical it is for some person or company to create a pseudo asset and then pump up a market for it. Ponzi is kicking himself in his grave for not thinking this up himself."

This is totally unethical. It happens all the time though - penny stocks are one example. I feel most of these new currencies can be thought of as just shiny, new penny stocks.

However, I disagree with what seems to be your overall point - that cryptos/blockchain are not a game changer.

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

"Blockchain makes the most sense to me as a better technology to facilitate our routine transactions. Eg- adopted by VISA and MC to speed up transactions and improve security and accountability. Or as a cash replacement.""

If I'm MC or VISA I'm panicking figuring out what the heck I'm going to do once Amazon.com and other large online retailers start accepting any of these new currencies. Retailers would like to see CC fees go away, and by extension so would customers. MC and Visa will have a big problem at that point unless they adapt quickly.

Grace Hopper may have said it best:

"The most dangerous phrase in the English language is 'we've always done it this way.'"

[Peregrine1983]

The biggest risk I see to the future of crypto is state regulation. I think we're going to see some measures put into effect that will drive down the value of a lot of this stuff.

EDIT - had the date wrong on the G20

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Peregrine1983

I disagree with what seems to be your overall point - that cryptos/blockchain are not a game changer.

They're definitely a technical game-changer, I agree with you there. If the investing world of the future is dominated by synthetic vehicles that are completely divorced from the business of producing the stuff we purchase and consume... then capitalism is just a casino at that point.

If I'm MC or VISA I'm panicking figuring out what the heck I'm going to do once Amazon.com and other large online retailers start accepting any of these new currencies. Retailers would like to see CC fees go away, and by extension so would customers. MC and Visa will have a big problem at that point unless they adapt quickly.

Cash, Interac, credit cards... there's costs associated with all of them. I suppose government would be happy to not have to produce and manage cash, too. I'd be surprised if the charge card companies aren't planning how to employ crypto-currencies.

[transmitterdan]

Governments will always want to control money supply. Otherwise they cannot long exist. So if you think any major country will ever accept bitcoin as payment of taxes you will not live to see it. Likewise no major government will ever pay out in bitcoin either because they cannot make as much or as little of it as they want. Ergo crypto currency will never be a "real" currency.

[rbk]

If I'm MC or VISA I'm panicking figuring out what the heck I'm going to do once Amazon.com and other large online retailers start accepting any of these new currencies. Retailers would like to see CC fees go away, and by extension so would customers. MC and Visa will have a big problem at that point unless they adapt quickly.

It’s funny you say this. American Express is already ahead in that game and went commercial a month ago and rumors abound about who Amazon might be partnering with especially since they made their intentions to get into banking sector this week.

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by crankysailor

Yes.. at this point this is just gambling on a highly volatile speculative market. No doubt..

On the other hand, since the number of available bitcoins is fixed and new bitcoins are mined at an ever decreasing rate until the total number of possible bitcoins is reached.. what do you think the price would be if people really started buying them en masse.. sure.. the downside is 12000 USD.. but the upside on this thing almost has no ceiling. But if some major shifts in the world economy happened again (think 2008), accompanied by some distrust on major currencies (US, Euro, etc) and people flocked to bitcoins for example.. we'd have so much money trying to buy a limited supply (what was it, 21Mio?) of bitcoins.. pfft.. you'd have a one million USD a bitcoin.. it boggles the mind.

Lots of ifs.. still.. maybe putting something you can afford to lose on it is worth a gamble.. I mean, we all like casinos don't we? [emoji3]

I don't get the limited supply? Bitcoins limited to 21,000,000, So? There's thousands of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin has hard forked three times through inner squabbling, Bitcoincash, erthrium..... so the "Brand" for now is 21,000,000, other than its limiting protocols it's no more special than other cyrtos!!! It's not like Bitcoin has unique properties that no other crypto has or another new crypto can't copy exactly. There's even instructions on how to create your own crypto currency out there now. Has someone else mentioned Bitcoin was first and that gives the brand advantage, it's not better, it's a brand.

Don't just believe, think about this. Also it's limited for now, these digital marks are created by man, it's only limited by man's choosing, man changes his mind quite alot. The Usd debt ceiling limit is a example. Now, Gold is truly limited regardless if man desires more, it's unique properties can't be duplicated, can you say that about Bitcoin?

If course it can go to a million, once again think tulips!

A fictional and speculative currency that only exists digitally, with no physical representation to back it up, where its value fluctuates as rapidly as the internet’s goodwill.

Such chaotic anarchy created by sheer insatiable greed.

Pretty well sums it up.

[alctel]

I bought a grands worth when they were at 60 bucks each a few years ago

Ended up cashing out when they were a shade under $300. It paid for NFM replacement ports for my boat, but still. egads.