The problem with your simplistic analysis is that you don't know what sails each
boat is carrying, and what
wind direction and conditions they were
racing in. For instance, in a downwind
race, the boats with downwind sails are going to do well, and the ParaSailor-equipped boats even better. We are seeing a lot of Code 0 sails on big cats, and they shine in reaching and some light air conditions.
If it's an upwind
race and boats only using
jib and main, then yes, the finish order is probably pretty easy to predict based on working sail area, LWL, and weight. (Let's assume you don't have any boats with daggerboards, rotating masts, etc.)
FYI, the big cats that are really into
racing in our region, have extensive sail inventory. The Harvest Moon
regatta - a 150 nm run down the
Texas coast - held last weekend had seven (7) big
catamaran entrants.
Leopard 44 and 47 sailed JAM (jib and main only).
Antigua 37,
Leopard 40 and Helia 44 sailed main,
jib and
asymmetric spin. A
Gemini 105Mc with jib, main, screacher and spin.
Lagoon 450F with jib, main and Code 0. And a
Lagoon 42 with jib, main, Code 0,
asymmetric spin and ParaSailor.
The race started as a breezy reach. All of the boats had SPOT trackers, so we could see relative performance at each of three check points. Unfortunately the
weather conditions went light toward the end, and only three cats sailed to finish. First to cross the line were the Lagoon 42, the
Leopard 40, and the
Leopard 44. However, for the first 95 miles of the race, the Leopard 40 was putting on a clinic and leading the six boats with NO reaching sails onboard. That's probably crew performance, and we are seeing boats with crews that know how to steer and trim, and sometimes outsail their PHRF rating by 20+ sec/nm. Which brings up the other issue with your simplistic analysis!
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