Sailing British Columbia Coast to Alaska doable in October?

[Sailor89]

Thanks everyone for all the info and tips! A lot of you were wondering why we would choose to do this trip this time of year, here’s why: we have some time off staring mid-September without any obligations until January. We don’t anticipate having this much time off in one block possibly until we retire and would like to make the most of it!

How far out is the weather forecast accurate? Are there often dangerous winds unexpectantly or are they usually predicted with plenty of warning so we have time to find a safe harbor to hunker down in?

We won’t be on a schedule, other than planning to be back at the beginning of November, and would like to get as far as we can towards Alaska (we do need to come back down to Vancouver) while it is safe and we are still having fun.

[rbk]

Weather forecasts are hit or miss and fronts can come 24 hours early or 24 hours late or not at all, hope that makes it clear as mud.

So you're going back down to Vancouver in this time as well? Personally, unless the plan was to leave the boat in South east for the winter then return in the spring to get a good jump on the season, you'll find better weather and times in desolation and the Broughtons and no crowds that time of the year.

[TrentePieds]

Probably a good idea to establish a voyage plan defining precisely the distances and therefore the running times twixt "hidey holes". These running times will then have to be conformed to the time of slack water in critical passes and, IMO, to the need to avoid night time passages. The need/ability to re-provision will also have to be taken into account. The plan should, of course, permit of easy revision in case you find yourselves weather bound. A factor, say 50%, should be built in for unanticipated/unpredicted delays. When you have established a REALISTIC voyage plan for your out-bound trip in that manner, you will have a far sounder basis for deciding whether you are up to this voyage - whether you have the time for it. Remember you have to come home again. You will also be able to determine whether you can do the out-bound leg this year, leave the boat in Alaska and bring 'er home NEXT year.

Your plan sounds too ambitions to me, but then I don't do open water like Hecate Strait for pleasure. I require serious payment for that sort of thing.

But don't despair. I can tell you with some confidence that if you only go so far as the Broughton Islands you'll have a wonderful, wonderful holiday free of any of the hassles that come with going north of Port Hardy.

TrentePieds

[Kelkara]

Originally Posted by Sailor89

How far out is the weather forecast accurate? Are there often dangerous winds unexpectantly or are they usually predicted with plenty of warning so we have time to find a safe harbor to hunker down in?

You only need the forecast to be good for 6 to 12 hours, which is enough for you to plan your day to the next anchorage.

Usually the Environment Canada forecasts are very conservative. It is far more likely that there will be high winds in the forecast that don't materialise where you are, than a calm forecast that blows up on you ... It's not necessarily because they screwed up, but if the wind may get that strong anywhere in the forecast area that's what they will say ... this is particularly true if you are sheltered by islands, and the forecast area contains exposed areas (eg. Central Coast, Hecate Strait). On these days you have to make a call as to whether your route will be sufficiently protected, or whether you need to wait it out.

Seriously bad weather they can usually see coming, sometimes it arrives earlier than forecast, sometimes later, sometimes milder, sometimes worse ... but it's usually going to arrive somehow. You have pay attention to how the extended forecast changes as it approaches to know how much confidence they have ... obviously short range forecasts are better than a few days out.

When I came back from Alaska in late Sept two years ago, for the crossing back to Vancouver Island I was faced with the decision of either sailing through the night to get ahead of a forecast storm; anchoring for the night and hoping that the storm didn't arrive early while I was still on the crossing; or hunker down for up to a week for the next weather window ... having been monitoring the forecast updates for the last few days I felt confident that if the storm were to arrive early it wouldn't arrive that night, but it just might before the next day was out ... so I chose the overnight sail, and comfortably arrived in Port McNeill ahead of the storm, and waited four days there for things to calm down before continuing south.

Originally Posted by TrentePieds

But don't despair. I can tell you with some confidence that if you only go so far as the Broughton Islands you'll have a wonderful, wonderful holiday free of any of the hassles that come with going north of Port Hardy.

I'll second that ... This is exactly what I did last October/November.

[Sailor89]

Upon further contemplation (and consideration of everyone’s feedback here), our plan may be a bit ambitious. We had considered going from Port Hardy to Ketchikan in a couple long passages (outside of the Inside Passage) and puttering our way back through the Inside Passage in October. Perhaps we will make our way north from Vancouver more slowly in good weather windows and give ourselves ample time to get back.

Any other tips or suggestions for cruising in that area?

[Knot Safety]

Good day Sailor89

I know the country from North end of Vancouver Island to northern BC border exceptionally well, having run charter fishing boats on it for years. My advice, for what it is worth is as follows

1). Be prepared for rain. Days and days and days of rain. They don’t call it the rainforest for nothing, and the fall/winter is when we get the most. Everything will be damp (just from the humidity), and be prepared to have a robust means of heating the air in the boat to try and dry things out.

2). You have two fairly exposed pieces of the run north (if you go inside). The piece from Vancouver Island across and the piece through Chatham Sound (near Prince Rupert). Most of the rest should be fairly good on the BC part of the run and you can pick your way up and through. Those two though - be prepared to be weathered in for days potentially waiting. You will wait for a weather window, and have to be quick if it comes as often the next one is right behind. I have waited days on end in Rupert to go out winter spring fishing and no hope or moving for two weeks. Expect the same for you.

3). If a big period of rain comes onshore, expect the rivers to be blown out. This will cause some huge logs and trees in the water, especially in Rupert area. You will pass the mouth of the Skeena on the way into Rupert. No matter how watchful you are, there is always the risk of hitting these hazards.

4). Expect no one around. Dead quiet but for a few locals or maybe some logging, especially as you get away from any population centres. Commercial fishing will be mostly shut down for all species. Only the hardy souls even think of sports fishing. Tourists are all gone. Dead quiet. This causes two issues - many stores and services will be shut down, or only running one or two days a week. There is just no reason for them to be open, and even in larger towns like Rupert, things will be pretty low key. The second issue is in the event of a problem you may be waiting a long time for someone to come by.

It sounds all gloom and doom and it isn’t - okay, the weather may be gloomy, but the trip won’t be. If you like dead quiet, no people and being prepared to wait in hidey hole anchorages waiting for weather change this is the trip for you. The chances of seeing mountain tops or sunshine is slim but there will still be remarkable beauty. Be prepared for all eventualities or expect to have some uncomfortable times

If you have specific questions, feel free to reach out

Knot Safety

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by Sailor89

Upon further contemplation (and consideration of everyone’s feedback here), our plan may be a bit ambitious. We had considered going from Port Hardy to Ketchikan in a couple long passages (outside of the Inside Passage) and puttering our way back through the Inside Passage in October. Perhaps we will make our way north from Vancouver more slowly in good weather windows and give ourselves ample time to get back.

Any other tips or suggestions for cruising in that area?

That is very wise of you and yours.

There are skippers here who have sailed here a lot longer than I have. I arrived here after sailing (motoring) up from SF in Aug/Sept 2016.
The October of 2018 saw what we called our Indian Summer Cruise. Shirtsleeve weather and temps in the 20Cs/70Fs.
The year before, when we got here on Sept 18th, it started raining on Oct. 1 and didn't stop until April!

My read is the local weather forecasts are good no more than 3 days out, and even then are questionable any more than 24 hours out.

The Canadian forecasts, for example, the St. of Georgia, cover an enormous area.
The US CG noaa forecasts can be arranged on their website for much more localized areas. For example, Haro St. is completely different, same day same hour, than Juan de Fuca St. Can't get from the Canadian sources.

Windy.com and Passage Weather were great for seeing both big picture and local stuff.
And getting there is half the fun. Then you get to return and can do it on a different route.
Just don't try to circumnavigate Quadra in a sailboat!

One of these days...

Tips: all the cruising guides are great: Waggoners, Dreamspeaker, etc.


Ports & Passages actually convert the tide/current times for PDT, whereas the online Canadian tables do NOT.

[TrentePieds]

And speaking of Quadra Island, and as food for thought for the OP: Two days ago, on this island that we BCers consider inhabited and civilized, a man was attacked by a grizzly bear. Exceptionally, when he managed to knife the bear, it backed off for a minute instead of killing him instantly. Though he was seriously mauled, he managed to apply a tourniquet and bicycle to a construction camp five miles distant where, at death's door, he was given first aid and then Medevac-ed by helicopter to Vancouver General Hospital. According to reports, had he been but a few minutes longer in transit he would have bled out.

Quadra is at the south end of the Broughtons and WELL south of the north end of VI!

The BC "Central Coast" (the "mainland" coast) from the latitude of the north end of Vancouver Island to the latitude of the south end of Haida Gwaii is known as the Great Bear Forest. It is NOT wise for those unfamiliar with that forest and its fauna to go ashore there. The local jest is that if you find bits of assault rifle and ammunition in the bear scat, then it was a grizzle (as opposed to a piddling black bear) that passed by.

In the autumn and winter there are very, very few people about either on the water or on the land, the distances are formidable and communication difficult. If you get in trouble, there will in all likelihood be no-one to come to you assistance betimes.

None of that should deter you from going, but it does mean that you need to be better prepared than many "furrenners" realize.

TP

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by TrentePieds

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

None of that should deter you from going, but it does mean that you need to be better prepared than many "furrenners" realize.

TP

Good story.


Do the bears know about dem "furrenners"????

[TrentePieds]

A hungry - or angry - grizzly will eat anything ;-0)!

TP

[quahauq]

an old timer asked me about willi's (wlliwaws) which I'd never heard of. His boat was a very well rigged 40' 'hallibut style' fishing schooner. if one is unlucky, boats have been capsized with the wind blowing straight down on them in Alaska he said, so don't take chances on Alaskan weather. 9/10s of the time it's wonderful cruizing.

[quahauq]

trentapieds- an old skinny grizzly with no teeth is even worse, hungry, grumpy, mean, fearless, especially in the Fall just before hibernation.

with the shortened hours of light in Fall/Winter one can take advantage of lighter winds at night. I traveled the inside passage mostly at night. After a hundred miles of trees there's just more of them to see.

[Capt Phil]

Sure, anytime of year but would be cold and wet Oct-April.
I commercial fished, towed logs and barges, and delivered boats north and south from Alaska to Puget Sound for many years.
Phil

[Cheechako]

I did some cruising BC in the Oct-Dec timeframe for a couple years. I spent a lot of time hiding in secure anchorages while the wind blew 40. But it was pretty fun. In reclusive sort of way.

[Fluenta]

One data point does make a trend but ...we just sailed the other way from Alaska to Vancouver over Oct/Nov. While there were periods of storm force winds we just hunkered down somewhere during those periods and moved when the weather was acceptable. As always, the most dangerous thing on a boat (or aircraft) is a schedule so we resisted the urge to rush the end of our seven year adventure and took our time. The only downside was we motored more in a few months than the previous bunch of years put together.



This time of year there are lots of SE winds so it would have been nice to be heading north.