Cruising Sailboats: a Dying Breed?

[Pizzazz]

My view is that:
1. There are many older boats that are still in good shape and can serve new owners very well. Fiberglass lasts forever. There is no need to buy a new boat if you are just sailing a few times a year. The size of the second hand market is huge and expanding.
2. The new boat market is going for bigger sizes because you cannot easily sell a new 30 footer for $150K, when there is so much choice of used 30 footers for $15K.
3. I agree that a lot of people prefer to spend time on the web, tablet, PlayStation vs. active sports such as sailing or skiing.
4. People are a lot more risk averse today than years ago and cruising is perceived as a high risk activity. Note the word perceived.
5. Overall, the cruising population is expanding but new boat sales will continue lagging until there is some technology change that makes a new boat more compelling than old boats. There has not been much innovation in our activity. May be furling sails and electronics but that’s it.

SV Pizzazz
1984 Hunter 31

[kzmike]

Originally Posted by Jim Cate

General question: Why should I care if the production of new cruising boats has declined, or if the number of new cruising sailors is smaller?

I don't understand the apparent interest in "growing" the cruising fleet. Folks will either go sailing or they won't, and it matters little to me. If they would rather sit and play video games (or post on CF), that's their biz, not mine.

Serious cruising has always been a fringe activity, practiced by a tiny proportion of the population. I suspect that it will not change in that sense.

Jim

Exactly Jim. Thanks for putting it in perspective. Mike

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

...So, it’s not from a lack money, it’s I believe just not easy is all, same for aviating, you have to want to.

I disagree (no surprise eh?). If you are struggling to pay for university, healthcare, keep a roof over your head, pay for the basics of life, raise a family and plan for retirement … if all this is happening you are not going to be spending money on a cruising-level sailboat.

All these costs have become proportionally more expensive for the median income worker in the USA and Canada (and many other western nations). And while costs have gone up, income for the vast majority have not kept up. What was once the great middle class has stagnated or gone down.

Yes, the number of super rich are also increasing. But in relative terms these are small numbers (maybe not where you live though ).

It’s absolutely true that you can live a less expensive life on a smallish sailboat. You’re proof of this, so am I. But most of us here would not be able to retire to a life at sea without a good pension, or significant personal savings and investments. These are things the current younger generations simply don’t have. (And no, it’s not b/c they are lazy).

[a64pilot]

Ah, but the pensions, and personal savings are just as possible now as they ever were.
Admittedly the number of Pensions have decreased, but they are still out there just as there are ways to pay for secondary education, more so now than before. You don’t have to sign up for a big student loan, most do, cause it’s easy.
Personal savings is simple, just live on less than you make, whether that is $ 50,000 a yr, or $25,000.

I know about the savings, cause the Wife and I lived in a mobile home, when my contemporaries would shake their head, saying we should buy a house like everyone else, but living in that Mobile home paid for both of our secondary educations, cause it was paid for.

I don’t mean to brag, but it can be done and it’s not really all that hard, but you do have to get over the instant gratification desire, and accept that some things take time.
There is an industry out there to convince kids that they need to sign up for loans to pay for College, so they can drive a new car and have the luxuries, and not have to work, and the Colleges themselves are the worst.
I know cause our youngest is in her second year.

[theway]

Originally Posted by CharlesV

I dont know the answer. Sailing is money, time, skill and most of all, commitment. The generation coming up now doesnt have any of those things. Day sail, yes; a week sail, sure why not; buying?? Hmm.



Aside from tastes changing and sailing not fitting into internet time, when sailing was much stronger there was less competition for your attention. People can spend an entire day on facebook and not pay it any mind, whereas sailing is "will we be home soon? i havent been on facebook in four days!!"

This is pretty close to what my response would be... the only thing I would add is fear. Maybe the fear is from the lack of knowledge as a result of the lack of (money, time, skill, commitment) or maybe a fear from all the Hollywood films showing (often exaggerating) how unpleasant it can be.

[john61ct]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Ah, but the pensions, and personal savings are just as possible now as they ever were.

Just not so.

The vast majority of new jobs created since the 2008 Great Recession do not even support the most basic definitions of middle class lifestyle.

Mainly because where wages seem high, housing costs have increased a **lot** more.

Plus tuition debt, issues wrt health care insurance.

Most of those jobs have zero schedule stability, often 1099 "gig / freelancing" with zero benefits, most people needing multiple side hustles just to get by,

even without any family responsibilities.

These are facts, easily confirmed, and it is just cruel and unfair to say the younger generations have the same opportunities to become "financially secure" when the late-stage capitalist system is designed to prevent that for all but the tiny percentages at the top.

https://imgur.com/gallery/vpn5pwJ

Source: Census Bureau, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, St. Louis Fed

[cyan]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

There is an industry out there to convince kids that they need to sign up for loans to pay for College, so they can drive a new car and have the luxuries, and not have to work, and the Colleges themselves are the worst.
I know cause our youngest is in her second year.

This is a really good point. In the US, school loans are stupid-easy to get now, pushing 75% of US high school grads to college when it was 50% three decades back. All that free money and higher demand simply inflates tuition costs. (see Bennett Hypothesis) Many of those college students would be better off learning welding or plumbing, but typical high schoolers are not even made aware of "trades" anymore. The end result is massive school loan burdens and a new generation with HALF the net worth that their parents had at the same age.

The next generation of cruisers may be quite smaller for a number of reasons. Less money could be one of them.

[Island Time O25]

The overall decline in new boat sales is even more pronounced if one factors in that probably 80-90% of the new boats are sold to charters and/or sailing clubs or some other sharing arrangements.

As a side note: I was a crew in 2000 Figawi race. There were 300+ entries that year. Fast forward to 2018 - barely 200 entries. And that's with a booming economy compared to 2000 dot com crash atmosphere.

One more reason crusing/liveaboard lifestyle is actively stymied by the gubment - tax man. Imagine what it would do to the local finances if a significant portion of the population switched from paying thousands of $$ for RE taxes on houses assessed at $200k-500k to excise taxes on boats assessed at $10k-100k?

A few years back I was helping a liveaboard buddy with some govt red tape. He was a liveaboard on the hook in New England for 6 months and down South for another 6 months. They could not take his honest answer as to where he lived (name and reg #s of his vessel and actual coordinates where he anchored) and enter it into a data base so the bureaucrat advised him to enter any address where he could pick up his mail. My buddy was a foreigner and was hesitant to give as his residence a place where he did not live. But the bureaucrat said that unless he enters a street address into the system his file could not be processed by the computer.

That scene told me it all I needed to know of our society's view of cruisers/liveaboards.

[Island Time O25]

Originally Posted by cyan

This is a really good point. In the US, school loans are stupid-easy to get now, pushing 75% of US high school grads to college when it was 50% three decades back. All that free money and higher demand simply inflates tuition costs. (see Bennett Hypothesis) Many of those college students would be better off learning welding or plumbing, but typical high schoolers are not even made aware of "trades" anymore. The end result is massive school loan burdens and a new generation with HALF the net worth that their parents had at the same age.

The next generation of cruisers may be quite smaller for a number of reasons. Less money could be one of them.

OTOH may be it's for the better that anyone stupid enough to borrow $100Ks and NOT get a marketable well paying skill stays away from the water.

[Island Time O25]

Originally Posted by john61ct

Just not so.

The vast majority of new jobs created since the 2008 Great Recession do not even support the most basic definitions of middle class lifestyle.

Mainly because where wages seem high, housing costs have increased a **lot** more.

Plus tuition debt, issues wrt health care insurance.

Most of those jobs have zero schedule stability, often 1099 "gig / freelancing" with zero benefits, most people needing multiple side hustles just to get by,

even without any family responsibilities.

These are facts, easily confirmed, and it is just cruel and unfair to say the younger generations have the same opportunities to become "financially secure" when the late-stage capitalist system is designed to prevent that for all but the tiny percentages at the top.

https://imgur.com/gallery/vpn5pwJ

Source: Census Bureau, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, St. Louis Fed

Most of the problems you describe were brought on by these people upon themselves. Borrowing $50K+ a year for 4-6 years to learn "social work" which pays $30-40K/yr is a recipe for bankrupcy. At the same time a radiology/dental/etc assistant can get his/her quals after 1year of schooling at app. $30k and can be earning $55-65k from the gate. Not to mention other, more lucrative trades.

[Budawang]

Interesting thread. I think people generally, particularly the young, are doing more in the virtual world and less in the real. As games and social media become more and more titillating, easy and affordable to access, sailing seems like a lot of of hard work. It's ironic there seems to be an inverse correlation between the the growth in popularity of You Tube sailing channels and people actually cutting the lines. Increasingly we are living our lives vicariously for better and for worse.

[cyan]

Originally Posted by Island Time O25

OTOH may be it's for the better that anyone stupid enough to borrow $100Ks and NOT get a marketable well paying skill stays away from the water.

Sad but funny.

[Wingfoot]

Just want to say...
Old people have been bitching about young people since the dawn of written history. The time my 24 year old daughter spends on her phone is devoted to either planning her next trip (Europe twice, the Levant, North Africa, SE Asia... and is in NOLA right now) and trying to figure out how not to be an indentured wage slave through out her youth.

Maybe some have regrets about not doing things when they were younger (Edward Albee's Desert Solitaire comes to mind) and are bitter towards those who decided wasting their youth making disposable plastic razors for emerging economies isn't quite worth it. The Puritanical work ethic is way, way over rated (unless of course you get rich exploiting it, I guess).

People of any community should be embracing those young or old who try to live in that community. Because you spent your youth as a wage slave is more reflection on you than the person who finds a way around it, no?

I might never cross the Columbia bar and head south but if my daughter does and finances it modelling bikinis on instagram how is that worse than "paying" her dues for 20-30 years working as a wage slave? I think younger people are a lot more clever about not feeding the "man" than alot of us older folk.

Apologize if I offend anyone. I'm old and see way more hope in the younger generations and am tired of seeing them bashed. Cheers.

[cyan]

Originally Posted by kzmike

Exactly Jim. Thanks for putting it in perspective. Mike

Perspective?
Meh.
If you're not interested, cool.
Nobody is clutching pearls here.
There haven't been any panicked new yacht brokers to chime in that I know of.
Join the discussion.
It's rather calm. And interesting.

[Chotu]

One of the most intelligent posts I've ever seen here.

Nailed it.

Originally Posted by Wingfoot

Just want to say...
Old people have been bitching about young people since the dawn of written history. The time my 24 year old daughter spends on her phone is devoted to either planning her next trip (Europe twice, the Levant, North Africa, SE Asia... and is in NOLA right now) and trying to figure out how not to be an indentured wage slave through out her youth.

Maybe some have regrets about not doing things when they were younger (Edward Albee's Desert Solitaire comes to mind) and are bitter towards those who decided wasting their youth making disposable plastic razors for emerging economies isn't quite worth it. The Puritanical work ethic is way, way over rated (unless of course you get rich exploiting it, I guess).

People of any community should be embracing those young or old who try to live in that community. Because you spent your youth as a wage slave is more reflection on you than the person who finds a way around it, no?

I might never cross the Columbia bar and head south but if my daughter does and finances it modelling bikinis on instagram how is that worse than "paying" her dues for 20-30 years working as a wage slave? I think younger people are a lot more clever about not feeding the "man" than alot of us older folk.

Apologize if I offend anyone. I'm old and see way more hope in the younger generations and am tired of seeing them bashed. Cheers.