Buying on hold - better market ahead?

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Maple Leaf

Hello everyone. I thought I would chime in on this one. I do agree that it is a seller’s market at least on the sector that I am familiar with. 38-45 foot Catamarans. I would suggest to EngineerRetired to follow your dream and purchase now. TIME and HEALTH can slip by quickly. Life isn’t always about the BEST deal. Do your homework, buy quality and go sailing. You may not have your health in the future. I am not suggesting you throw caution to the wind. Make an informed decision as most Engineers would. Don’t over analyze.
My two cents. Good luck.

I would agree , if you have the budget buy now , go sailing , all boats loose money.

[keepondancin]

Does it matter? A boat is a losing proposition anyway. We sold everything in the late 80's to go cruising at age 40. Wife said she didn't want to be sitting on the porch, in the rocking chair, saying wish we had, rather than remember when...We went, 10 years, came back, and she died a few years later, unexpectedly. Never got to sit in the rocking chair, but got to go cruising. Remember...Long time dead

[rhubstuff]

Unless you have a crystal ball, waiting for a "better market" is a waste of time. Suppose it takes two years for the market to "correct" itself (there is no such thing, really; the market always reflects reality of the times), you will have wasted two years getting older while doing nothing about following your dream. If the right time is now, do it now.

[zurk]

2025/2026 the boats will be hitting the market. you will also have a ton of cruising cats like the seawind 1370s which will be aged and getting on the market as their owners tire of them as well as newer designs from other mfgs. so worth waiting for the correction.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I expect the macro economic situation to change for the worse , how bad remains to be seen , QE has run as far as it can. Asset inflation will unwind and the false propping up of business and pandemic supports to people will end.

I'll stand by my prediction of Covid boats coming back on the market beginning in 2022/23 (and of course beyond), but you raise another major factor. We're long past a market correction, and there's been so much intervention in the finances that I doubt anyone really knows what will happen in the near/mid range. All we know is that what goes up, has to come down at some point.

I do know that when the financial shyte hits the fan, and people have a hard time keeping a primary residence and putting food on the table, that they won't be hanging onto luxury items like boats.

I bought my current boat after the '08 collapse. It is a boat that, prior to the crash, was way out of my price range. Suddenly it became affordable. Another crash will lead to the same thing.

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

There will be a lot of naked people when that tide goes out.

Knowing the average age and shape of cruisers out there, that's one ugly thought .

[EngineerRetired]

Originally Posted by rwidman

1)

2) You can't take it with you. I have never seen a hearse with a luggage rack.

WHAT?! Then I'm not goin!

[EngineerRetired]

Originally Posted by rhubstuff

Unless you have a crystal ball, waiting for a "better market" is a waste of time. Suppose it takes two years for the market to "correct" itself (there is no such thing, really; the market always reflects reality of the times), you will have wasted two years getting older while doing nothing about following your dream. If the right time is now, do it now.

Fortunately for me I have more than one dream. Going on Safari is probably number two on the list. Cruising is something I do want but, I am not possessed by it like many here seem to be. (No disrespect) Life has so many adventures and wonders to experience, I'll take them as presented.

[EngineerRetired]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Originally Posted by goboatingnow
There will be a lot of naked people when that tide goes out.


Knowing the average age and shape of cruisers out there, that's one ugly thought .

ROLMAO

[Saleen411]

Originally Posted by EngineerRetired

Fortunately for me I have more than one dream. Going on Safari is probably number two on the list. Cruising is something I do want but, I am not possessed by it like many here seem to be. (No disrespect) Life has so many adventures and wonders to experience, I'll take them as presented.

Same here. BTW, I've already been on a lengthy safari in Kenya and Tanzania and loved it. We plan on doing it again... South Africa next.

As you say....many adventures in life. We scratch our sailing itch by chartering a couple times a year.

We definitely can wait......maybe you can too.

[Clivevon]

[QUOTE=EngineerRetired;3460893]In that case investing in a boat would have been foolish.

Owning a boat is not about money. You need money to have one, but its not about money.
If you can afford it now, do it now. If a 10% price difference is worth a couple of years to you, maybe just drop the idea.
Buying a boat is financial insanity. Dont do it unless you are internally compelled to do so.

[valhalla360]

In the big picture, Boomers are starting to age out.

The average Boomer is 65. While there will be the exception who hangs around cruising until their 90's, 65 is near the end of the cruising for most people. Physically, it just gets too hard.

With GenX being smaller, demand is likely to drop for most things retirement related over the next 10-15yrs but cruising is likely to be one of the earlier market segments to feel the impact.

If that combines on with the return from Covid opening alternatives to cruising, it could be a huge impact on the boat market in the next few years.

[thinwater]

OR have we seen a lasting step change in how at least some portion of the people look at work and leisure? I agree, there will be some remorse sales, but I wonder also if there will be growing interest and at least off setting purchases, as people realize that working from home means more flexibility?

I'm not so sure we are looking at a short term bubble. I think we may be looking at a small but deeper change. Does anyone believe the old normal will entirely return? I do not, and don't really want it to. The new normal is probably better for many boaters and would be boaters. I think at least it is a longer term bump, lasting 3 years or more.



Valhalla360 pointed to the big lever. As boomers age-out, will there be interest in boat ownership in the coming generations?


Bottom line: I would not wait if you are actually a sailor. Imagine what you are missing? What I am 100% certain of is that you won't ever get that time on the water back. Buy something; it doesn't have to be your "forever boat" (which a concept I do not understand anyway).

[rwidman]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

In the big picture, Boomers are starting to age out.

The average Boomer is 65. While there will be the exception who hangs around cruising until their 90's, 65 is near the end of the cruising for most people. Physically, it just gets too hard. .

Where are you getting your statistics? I'm thinking out of your backside.

But go ahead and justify your claim if you think you can.

[thinwater]

Originally Posted by rwidman

Where are you getting your statistics? I'm thinking out of your backside.

But go ahead and justify your claim if you think you can.

No, he was not. In the near past, the average boat owner was getting consistently older.
But the counter argument is that we are also climbing out of a boating slump that seems to be driven by other factors, perhaps just a cycle. The fact that an improving market coincided with COVID buying caused tightening of the used boat market. The question is, will the growth continue due to a change in life style and choices? Don't know, but I think it will in the near term.


Another factor could be that there was never a glut of GOOD used boats, only worn out boats. As a result, the glut appeared bigger than it actually was, because a few cheap POSs dragged the market down. With even a slight increase in interested in GOOD used boats, the market returned to some sense of value. There are still project boats out there for cheap!


Of course, carefully selected statistics can tell many stories.

[goboatingnow]

We’re out of boating at 65. I better run down the pontoon and tell 4 boats ( 68 yo , 70yr 72yo, 74yo ) that they shouldn’t step on their boat again

I expect to be good to 80.