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Old 11-08-2021, 07:13   #61
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Re: Buying on hold - better market ahead?

What goes around comes around
Just when your in your 70.s + it becomes
more of a personal issue.
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Old 11-08-2021, 07:25   #62
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Re: Buying on hold - better market ahead?

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The cat market will be a seller's market for years to come...
Don
Now THAT's a bold prediction.

I have my doubts. We are WAY overdue for an economic correction and we are still in the middle of a global pandemic with no immediate end in sight.

The govt gravy train won't last forever and there will be a reckoning, and it won't been in "years to come" IMHO.

But we shall see. I don't think MOST would have imagined a record stock market and a BOOM in real estate and commodity prices considering all the hardships associated with the COVID pandemic. Defies logic, but here we are
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Old 11-08-2021, 07:40   #63
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Re: Buying on hold - better market ahead?

Wife and I have gotten so frustrated with this market that we altered our plans. We originally had a $350k targeted budget for a liveaboard cat when we started planning 5 years ago, which turned into $ 450k these days. Instead we just bought an off grid house on the water in Bocas Del Toro, turn key, with a dock, and we'll find a $ 75k 38ft monohull eventually to enjoy the Caribbeans during sailing season, with a hurricane free home to go back to. Way more comfortable, way less risky, same budget. And after renting in Bocas for 6 months we absolutely love it here.
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Old 11-08-2021, 07:48   #64
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Re: Buying on hold - better market ahead?

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Wife and I have gotten so frustrated with this market that we altered our plans. We originally had a $350k targeted budget for a liveaboard cat when we started planning 5 years ago, which turned into $ 450k these days. Instead we just bought an off grid house on the water in Bocas Del Toro, turn key, with a dock, and we'll find a $ 75k 38ft monohull eventually to enjoy the Caribbeans during sailing season, with a hurricane free home to go back to. Way more comfortable, way less risky, same budget. And after renting in Bocas for 6 months we absolutely love it here.

An interesting thought... Are you "ocean front"?
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Old 11-08-2021, 07:58   #65
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Re: Buying on hold - better market ahead?

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If EngineerRetired is not going to buy a boat now, (assuming he can afford one now), in order to speculate that he can perhaps buy the same type of boat for less in two years’ time, he will most likely have the same reticent then. “l think I’ll wait a bit longer until the market drops a bit more.”
We’ve all seen them, strolling the marinas, wishing they could be like us, but they never will be…



Naw, don't think I have ever done that or wanted to be like anyone else. We pretty much do as we please when we believe the timing is right. Yes we can afford one, doesn't mean I want to throw money away. As I said before, cruising is but one adventure and this world offers lots of them. The order they fall in isn't critical to us.
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Old 11-08-2021, 08:03   #66
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Re: Buying on hold - better market ahead?

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I don't think MOST would have imagined a record stock market and a BOOM in real estate and commodity prices considering all the hardships associated with the COVID pandemic. Defies logic, but here we are
No, actually this has been fairly logical. Early on, our financial advisor showed us historical info plus some theorizing around the effects of COVID responses which pretty much matched what happened:

  • COVID responses were reasonably targeted and prevented a big crash from insolvencies, bankruptcies etc
  • shipping and production of many commodities was impacted
  • saving went up when normal discretionary spending was curtailed
  • easy loans at low interest
So, as we've seen here and elsewhere, the people with money have been looking to spend it (and profit from the demand).

The big reset will be when those who benefited from COVID conditions are asked to cough up to pay for supporting those who didn't. . Or we'll just inflate or trade away our debt.
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Old 11-08-2021, 08:06   #67
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Re: Buying on hold - better market ahead?

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An interesting thought... Are you "ocean front"?
Yep. Reef out front, jungle out back, private dock with boat house and lift for a 20ft motor boat. I'll probably get a mooring ball installed just beyond the reef for a sailboat, sounds like a $ 3K investment. 1/2 acre property, no direct neighbors, 2,200 sqft house with a huge deck, 8kw of solar, 2.7kw backup generator, but I might want to upgrade the battery bank to lithium. Bocas town with restaurants and grocery shopping is one mile away, 5 min ride by motor boat. And the ocean sunset views are incredible.

After living here for 6 months and seeing how our liveaboard sailing friends are living, and the amount of time and $$$ spent trying to fix their catamarans, we feel so much better about this choice.
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Old 11-08-2021, 08:34   #68
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Re: Buying on hold - better market ahead?

I dont find things really go down much once they go up. I bought a house for $300k in the 90's. Sold it a few years later but today it would be probably 2 million. Was there a dip along the way? Maybe, but I dont think another deep recession like 2009 is coming for many years.
I cant think of any reason a 1985 boat would be more today than 3 years ago. People are always asking more than their boat is worth.
I dont ever remember finding the right boat taking less than a year in any case....
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Old 11-08-2021, 09:12   #69
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Re: Buying on hold - better market ahead?

I'm 5 years out from buying a cruising boat. I'm thinking there will be some sort of downturn before then. It might not be the entire market drops, but there will be deals to be had if you are flexible. I'm not going to look for the perfect boat. One that will do is good enough.
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Old 11-08-2021, 09:13   #70
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Re: Buying on hold - better market ahead?

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I dont find things really go down much once they go up. I bought a house for $300k in the 90's. Sold it a few years later but today it would be probably 2 million. Was there a dip along the way? Maybe, but I dont think another deep recession like 2009 is coming for many years.
I cant think of any reason a 1985 boat would be more today than 3 years ago. People are always asking more than their boat is worth.
I dont ever remember finding the right boat taking less than a year in any case....
True for real estate, a scarce resource in metro areas. Doesn't make sense for depreciating assets where scarcity is only temporary and artificial.

Right now a 3-5 year old cat is being sold pretty much at the same price it was purchased new, because the wait for a new boat is way too long and people want to sail now. That's a big opportunity for boat builders to increase production, it'll just take a little time for this to happen. Once it does, prices should be more in line with what one should expect from a depreciating asset.

Look at the used car market. Same exact thing. For the past 6 months, used cars saw a 20% price jump. I actually made money selling my used challenger after putting 40k miles on it. Do you really expect this will keep going?
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Old 11-08-2021, 09:41   #71
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Re: Buying on hold - better market ahead?

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I cant think of any reason a 1985 boat would be more today than 3 years ago.
Supply and demand.

Today, according to the brokers I've heard from (some even posting here on this thread), demand for boats has increased dramatically, while supply has decreased. Market economics says prices on scarce commodities go up when demand is high.

When Covid Confinement truly comes to an end, and people get back to spending their leisure money the way they really want to, I predict many of their Confinement purchases will go back on the market. This will increase supply and decrease demand, so prices will come down.

Obviously, this doesn't apply to all boat and all locations. The boat market is sufficiently small and localized such that normal market forces work lightly, or not at all. But I'm looking at this from the macro sense. At the micro level, anything can happen.
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Old 11-08-2021, 09:50   #72
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Re: Buying on hold - better market ahead?

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Yep. Reef out front, jungle out back, private dock with boat house and lift for a 20ft motor boat. I'll probably get a mooring ball installed just beyond the reef for a sailboat, sounds like a $ 3K investment. 1/2 acre property, no direct neighbors, 2,200 sqft house with a huge deck, 8kw of solar, 2.7kw backup generator, but I might want to upgrade the battery bank to lithium. Bocas town with restaurants and grocery shopping is one mile away, 5 min ride by motor boat. And the ocean sunset views are incredible.

After living here for 6 months and seeing how our liveaboard sailing friends are living, and the amount of time and $$$ spent trying to fix their catamarans, we feel so much better about this choice.


Just curious, was this property an ecotourism lodge before? I knew someone who operated one there.
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Old 11-08-2021, 10:03   #73
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Re: Buying on hold - better market ahead?

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Just curious, was this property an ecotourism lodge before? I knew someone who operated one there.
Not this particular one, our home is build like a private one. But there's one for sale just behind us, listed at $ 295K, 8 bedrooms. Been for sale for years. There are a bunch of them in the archipelago.

We might invest a bit into a couple overwater bungalows out front but it'll take some research. I've seen a lot of failed businesses here. The land is cheap outside the main town so people come here thinking it'll be easy, but they dismiss how difficult it is to get to, or that unless you have EVERYTHING on site (nice meals, kayaks, SUP, snorkeling reef) then being away from the main town is a problem for tourists. There are also lots beautiful of 20+ acre properties with multiple houses for sale at less than cost because being 10 miles / 30 min boat ride away from civilization turns out to be not so fun after a short while.

And if you think about buying a $ 25K plot of land and building on it, unless you're in construction, remember you need to import all building material, bring them to your island home by boat, clear jungle land and be physically on site for a year to oversee construction.

And then there's the AirBnB properties left vacant most of the time, not a good idea here.

Anyway, we've been coming to visit for a couple years now and spent enough time throughout the archipelago to know exactly what suits us. I don't recommend buying anything here before spending at least 6 months living here and meeting people. And don't expect to one make a profit, be prepared to be stuck with the property or take a loss eventually. There's no guarantee it'll appreciate.

I find the place amazing, but it's not for everyone.
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Old 11-08-2021, 10:35   #74
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Re: Buying on hold - better market ahead?

I bought my boat for x and I’ve spent y on it therefore I want x+y for it. That goes on for years until it gets to the state of oh it used to be a good boat
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Old 11-08-2021, 12:01   #75
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Re: Buying on hold - better market ahead?

Theres a reason fads always fade:

Those already participating in certain activities have typically developed entire lifestyles/careers to ensure time & availability.

However, for newcomers reacting to immediate opportunities, they never faced/accepted existential desire & devotion. It just came up as something to do today, so when interest fades, the dont have a strong foundation or sense of commitment.

You can name any active sport besides cruising that is currently experiencing tremendous pressure. Golfing, surfing, biking, camping, etc. But if people had a true underlying interest, they would have already been doing it regardless of current circumstances.

Theres a reason passive entertainment is so popular - 10s of millions would rather watch (sports, YT, TV, etc) than get dirty, sweaty and tired.

Add in high costs of ownership/membership/fees, and once the fun is over and most want to go back to sitting around, theres going to be a glut in the markets.

Im think it may come as early as this fall, especially if schools reopen. Our beach area has been packed since everyone has free time and covid bucks. Were all waiting for everyone to go home.
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