Buying on hold - better market ahead?

[EngineerRetired]

Ok, ask anyone and right "now" it is absolutely a sellers market, or has been until this point. I ask myself, as a buyer do I really want to keep trying to swim against the current trend and after searching most of 2021 I think the answer is no.


Will things change in the future, they always do it seems, I mean markets swing back and forth and have since forever. I am thinking its time to step back and wait for things to come back around. For my own reasons (my crystal ball) I think that will begin to happen after the first of the year.


Any predictions?

[Saleen411]

Originally Posted by EngineerRetired

Ok, ask anyone and right "now" it is absolutely a sellers market, or has been until this point. I ask myself, as a buyer do I really want to keep trying to swim against the current trend and after searching most of 2021 I think the answer is no.


Will things change in the future, they always do it seems, I mean markets swing back and forth and have since forever. I am thinking its time to step back and wait for things to come back around. For my own reasons (my crystal ball) I think that will begin to happen after the first of the year.


Any predictions?

Predictions?.....Better than that....I will tell you when I buy my yacht and THEN you can sit back and watch as boat prices PLUMMET. Same with stocks.....

I retire in a couple of months and have been cat window shopping for awhile. Bottom line, I'm not buying at the top of the top for anything.

Yes....been a sellers market for awhile, for cats anyway. I haven't met anyone yet with a crystal ball up their arse, so who knows when the pendulum will swing the other way. Nobody I've spoken with has a clue.

[laird]

Originally Posted by Saleen411

Predictions?.....Better than that....I will tell you when I buy my yacht and THEN you can sit back and watch as boat prices PLUMMET. Same with stocks.....

I retire in a couple of months and have been cat window shopping for awhile. Bottom line, I'm not buying at the top of the top for anything.

Yes....been a sellers market for awhile, for cats anyway. I haven't met anyone yet with a crystal ball up their arse, so who knows when the pendulum will swing the other way. Nobody I've spoken with has a clue.

Can you let me know when the prices plummet ? I'm not a wealthy wannabe boat owner

I'd just like a nice 37 ft mono in a couple of years

[Standbly]

Wait a minute... (or not!) Isn't life to short to wait especially once you've finally retired? Just a thought

[Mike OReilly]

My only slightly-informed opinion is that it is a Covid-driven sellers' market. I predict as we return to something approaching normal, people will go back to spending money the way they prefer.

So all those Covid boat/RV/recreational properties, etc... will go back on the market as people return to spending their money on luxury travel. I predict by 2023/24 we'll see a downturn in the used boat market. Unless of course we see a real resurgence in the pandemic. In which case all bets are off.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by laird

Can you let me know when the prices plummet ? I'm not a wealthy wannabe boat owner

I'd just like a nice 37 ft mono in a couple of years

usually 1-2 months after I buy any stock in anything

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

My only slightly-informed opinion is that it is a Covid-driven sellers' market. I predict as we return to something approaching normal, people will go back to spending money the way they prefer.

So all those Covid boat/RV/recreational properties, etc... will go back on the market as people return to spending their money on luxury travel. I predict by 2023/24 we'll see a downturn in the used boat market. Unless of course we see a real resurgence in the pandemic. In which case all bets are off.

I agree, I also think this has about 2 years to run

[crafoo]

well inflation is here to stay. probably ~10% this year alone.

If we see an end to the COVID social order we may see a downturn in demand for boats. However, I do not think we will see a "return to normal". The social power and control it grants is just too attractive.

[flightlead404]

I’ll sell you my 38 in 2 years when I trade up.

Should have the boat exactly how I want it by then ��

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by crafoo

well inflation is here to stay. probably ~10% this year alone.

If we see an end to the COVID social order we may see a downturn in demand for boats. However, I do not think we will see a "return to normal". The social power and control it grants is just too attractive.

naw, people are acutely aware of COVID restrictions , they will want to see them all gone

things like Vaccine certs will no doubt be around now for years in international travel, but thats not a bad thing

[Capt Clark]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

My only slightly-informed opinion is that it is a Covid-driven sellers' market. I predict as we return to something approaching normal, people will go back to spending money the way they prefer.

So all those Covid boat/RV/recreational properties, etc... will go back on the market as people return to spending their money on luxury travel. I predict by 2023/24 we'll see a downturn in the used boat market. Unless of course we see a real resurgence in the pandemic. In which case all bets are off.

I agree with Mike but believe we will see the turnaround earlier. I’m seeing new boat owners just now being indoctrinated into the cost of ownership. The COVID crisis will continue to have some effect but both (virus & boat sales) should wane by early 2022. As a broker, I’ve always recommended to not buy in a hurry but especially now. Only time will tell.

Capt Clark

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by crafoo

well inflation is here to stay. probably ~10% this year alone.

If we see an end to the COVID social order we may see a downturn in demand for boats. However, I do not think we will see a "return to normal". The social power and control it grants is just too attractive.

Inflation affects prices of things people want. My assessment is that once travel restrictions come back to something like normal (probably including some sort of vaccine passport), peoples' spending will return to the old ways.

Those who bought boats, runabouts, RVs, and other accessible distractions will return to spending money on airlines, urban exploration, resorts, cruise ship travels and expensive restaurants. They'll want to unload all their Covid purchases, which will drive prices down.

[EngineerRetired]

My crystal ball suggests;


Covid played a roll but as suggested, the cost of ownership has been a rude awakening for new many. It also says people are funny and the "been there, done that" syndrome is going to play a big role very soon.


For many people, being "cooped up" on a boat for extended periods just isn't the magic time YouTube videos make it out to be. As things get easier (Covid) and people start or return to the things they like doing, that never ending money pit down at the marina is not going to hold the allure it once did.


No matter how I look at it, being a buyer a sellers market is a bit foolish. Might be time to find a "flipping" project or two as a short term place to put a few bucks.

[EngineerRetired]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

usually 1-2 months after I buy any stock in anything

I hear ya!!! I may be the only guy around that lost money on Apple stock.

[Davy J]

Even if there is a downturn, how much do you expect to save??

Even during the "great recession", when you could buy a house for 30-40% less then just two years earlier, boat prices really never came down much. There may have been more boats on the market, but prices stayed just about flat.

Another thing, the price of "all" raw materials is insane. Unless that changes, the price for all major expenditures will stay high.

And, on an unrelated note, I ride a motorcycle, purchased it years ago. I went to two of the larger dealers in my area over the weekend. Hadn't been to a dealer in a while, I was shocked. One dealer that normally has 100 to 200 motorcycles on the showroom floor had maybe 10.

Like I said, how much do you think you will save? If you save 5-10% but have to wait two years for that, you miss out on two years of fun, experience and upgrading the boat to your tastes.