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J.R. · 06-05-2020, 12:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by chakil

Do you really need facts? Ok here a few for you;

EU Commission;
- Euro economy downsize %7.7 (Previous +%1.2)
- German economy downsize %6.5
- French ecomony downsize %8.2
- Spain economy downsize %9.4

We talked about the US$-€ exchange rate, which should crash in your opinion. Do you have the expected economy downsize figures for the US as a comparizon? I don't expect them to be very different.

chakil · 06-05-2020, 12:37

You are right but Usd still rules.
All the EU banks have US government bonds and they are giving them to US treasury to get swap lines.. all countries have USD debt, today eurusd just try under 1,08 , wait and see..

slug · 06-05-2020, 15:23

Quote:

Originally Posted by J.R.

We talked about the US$-€ exchange rate, which should crash in your opinion. Do you have the expected economy downsize figures for the US as a comparizon? I don't expect them to be very different.

The value and stability of a currency reflects economic growth
Euro zone economies have been laggards , after this corona event they will become zombies

The euro zone may even break up if Germany vetos monetary transfers to repair southern economies

Hard to envision the euro as a safe haven currency

geoleo · 06-05-2020, 15:34

Dear Chakil, What if you find and buy your dream boat at your dream price and the prices keep going down fast--you will be losing money! What will you do? Sell it at a big loss and wait

to re-buy similar at a new "great Deal price???? Plus you seem to be a EU er with Euros-- meanwhile the US dollar keeps getting stronger and stronger against Euros and worldwide currencies. Maybe you should take your boat stash and buy USD????

geoleo · 06-05-2020, 15:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by doog

you trigger a real thought about usd/euro. Its clear our market crashed on the news and then lawmakers just poured money into corporate pockets until the market began rising again although orders are in the toilet and a third of the economy has no forseeable future. In Europe their pockets and ability to write checks out of thin air is far less than ours is..So the dollar will indeed remain strong until the real truth of vacant commercial property and urban collapse becomes obvious..

Im not seeing any end to this but when the death rate drops the news just goes to the number of cases which are created by testing those who have been positive since January with no ill effects..

These 'death rates' are people in nursing homes and in hospice and thats a place people often die..any opportunistic infection. But suddenly these are 'lives lost' when no..they're end of life deaths.

Anyway our economy is created by policy makers now..no natural forces but just govt checks. And my thought is to go to Europe and buy the highest quality European boat with the strong dollar while it still holds..

What is "Urban Collapse"?

sailjumanji · 06-05-2020, 15:48

Quote:

Originally Posted by chakil

They all say the same.. they are fully booked does not mean they are 100s of boats to deliver.. thats a lie..
And the charter companies are paying for their mooring fees and earn nothing..
These companies dont have cash flow, they will sell %50 of their fleet..
We will see what happens in Oct.

If you tell them you are seriously in the market for a new boat, what dealer would respond with they are fully booked up, if they aren't? They are in the business of selling boats …

chakil · 06-05-2020, 21:52

Quote:

Originally Posted by sailjumanji

If you tell them you are seriously in the market for a new boat, what dealer would respond with they are fully booked up, if they aren't? They are in the business of selling boats …

I don't mean that.. They were booked before the virus and it was too late for the buyers and the factories to cancel their orders.. If you tried to book last Nov-Jan you are right but now they produced boats which they can not deliver or the buyer wants to cancel and so....

If this was predicted Germany, Italy, Spain,France would not be in this situation..

Dirk01 · 06-05-2020, 22:50

Does anybody has a crystal ball and can see what will happen in let say 4.5 years?
Same prices for the boats waiting to be sold? Or another pandemic turns all off? Or rising temperatures makes it impossible to sail the most beautiful parts of our blue planet? Or anything else?
Like to hear more from the SEERS

Meanwhile I'm just living, mowing the lawn, transfering boats, go skiing and relax whenever it's possible ...

chakil · 06-05-2020, 22:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dirk01

Does anybody has a crystal ball and can see what will happen in let say 4.5 years?
Same prices for the boats waiting to be sold? Or another pandemic turns all off? Or rising temperatures makes it impossible to sail the most beautiful parts of our blue planet? Or anything else?
Like to hear more from the SEERS

Meanwhile I'm just living, mowing the lawn, transfering boats, go skiing and relax whenever it's possible ...

Believe me you don't need crystal ball, just take your head out of sand and make your research.. maybe don't go too far , just read some IMF reports, or EU reports.. that's it.. you can do it.

letsgetsailing3 · 07-05-2020, 00:00

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

At the moment, I'm more concerned about the US than Europe.

Based on...?

chakil · 07-05-2020, 00:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

Based on...?

they just talk .. nothing else..

**Pete7** · 07-05-2020, 00:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by chakil

I don't mean that.. They were booked before the virus and it was too late for the buyers and the factories to cancel their orders.. If you tried to book last Nov-Jan you are right but now they produced boats which they can not deliver or the buyer wants to cancel and so....

If this was predicted Germany, Italy, Spain,France would not be in this situation..

What, you're talking in riddles. Are you saying you can't find a build slot or existing order that can't be made? You're not looking had enough, visit the factories in person and report back. You need to be on site, not dealing from the Middle East.

Pete

chakil · 07-05-2020, 00:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pete7

What, you're talking in riddles. Are you saying you can't find a build slot or existing order that can't be made? You're not looking had enough, visit the factories in person and report back. You need to be on site, not dealing from the Middle East.

Pete

I wish I could and I will when the flights start..But until then its all projections we can make with the data available.