US / Canada border restrictions predictions...

[Joli]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

This false statement is at the core of the problem. Covid-19 is not under control and ample evidence shows is far more harmful than influenza.

You have the right to your own opinion, but not to your own facts.

I just look at the numbers. How is this a problem?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

[Tetepare]

Originally Posted by Dave Lochner

As others have said, it won't open until the virus is better contained here in the US. The Northeast got their act together and have beat back the virus. NY's infection rate is less than 1% of the tested population. If the rest of the country had paid attention and followed NY's lead, we'd all be in better shape.

Dave, ArmyDave, Littlewing, and many others here are on either side of Lake Ontario/ St Lawrence River, one of the most commonly crossed borders by cruising boats, so let me address from that perspective.


With COVID, as with many issues, there are two New Yorks. I don't want to turn this into a political discussion (please don't) but the fact is that the greater NYC area and Upstate differ dramatically in many ways.


It is not statistically responsible to lump Upstate lake border counties with NYC. In ALL of the border counties, the infection rate never exceeded 1.2%. In most counties now, hospitalizations even are at zero.


If we go back a couple months and look at those border counties, and back out urban areas and the nursing home fiasco, the infection rate in the remainder of the massive region is very close to zero.



Now, let me divert to set a tone, because I want readers to take this with an open, scientific, and mathematical mind rather than go off the rails on me. We did, and do, continue SD. I wear a mask, despite the statistics and observation that SD is far more effective than masks. This because (1) while I NEVER win a drawing or raffle, I'm the "lucky" guy that would run into Mr. .05% and (2) years of life in overseas conditions having had salmonella, dysentary, malaria thrice, and diseases they can't ID have left my immune system compromised. So I don't take COVID lightly.


Yet the fact remains that even if I'd not worn a mask, or practiced SD, statistically it was highly unlikely that I'd have caught COVID. And today, living in the Finger Lakes/ border region, the chance is about as close to zero as one can get.


That said then, statistically cruising boats, if allowed to cross Lake Ontario at will, are no more likely to carry COVID than they are to be carrying terrorists. Certainly, it's easier to lump statistics, rules, and monitoring into comprehensive state/ province and national levels than small regions, and I'm sure that's why we have broad data released, and broad restrictions. But statistically there is no reason to stop boat traffic across Lake Ontario.


Of course, schools are going to open in two weeks. I'm pulling my child out when the first case is reported in the district. I give it two to four weeks. Once COVID does penetrate a suburban/ rural school district, watch the infection rate skyrocket. It occurs to me that Ontario and NY governments recognize this, so figure they might as well keep the border closed for now, rather than open it for a summer then slam it shut again.


Aside from statistics, I miss the Canadian cruisers. We welcome them, and love meeting them, swapping stories of home, sharing local secret places. It's a sadly odd sailing world without our friends visiting, without the maple leaf flag flying in our port. It's like there is an annual ritual missing, a piece of our family not coming to visit, or to welcome us. Hopefully some day we can return to a world where this pretend-border exists only in inconvenient calls to bureaucrats and petty paperwork, and enjoy our neighbors again.

[wannacat]

Well said and we should end this thread on that note!

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Tetepare

It is not statistically responsible to lump Upstate lake border counties with NYC. In ALL of the border counties, the infection rate never exceeded 1.2%. In most counties now, hospitalizations even are at zero.

If we go back a couple months and look at those border counties, and back out urban areas and the nursing home fiasco, the infection rate in the remainder of the massive region is very close to zero.

...

That said then, statistically cruising boats, if allowed to cross Lake Ontario at will, are no more likely to carry COVID than they are to be carrying terrorists. Certainly, it's easier to lump statistics, rules, and monitoring into comprehensive state/ province and national levels than small regions, and I'm sure that's why we have broad data released, and broad restrictions. But statistically there is no reason to stop boat traffic across Lake Ontario.

...

Aside from statistics, I miss the Canadian cruisers. We welcome them, and love meeting them, swapping stories of home, sharing local secret places. It's a sadly odd sailing world without our friends visiting, without the maple leaf flag flying in our port. It's like there is an annual ritual missing, a piece of our family not coming to visit, or to welcome us. Hopefully some day we can return to a world where this pretend-border exists only in inconvenient calls to bureaucrats and petty paperwork, and enjoy our neighbors again.

As a Canadian L Ontario sailor and cruiser... we miss you too

Several years back, I crewed for the Cloud 9 cross-lake race which included a great dinner and overnight at Oak Orchards YC. I had a great cruise with buddies around eastern L Ontario last year, with stops in Cape Vincent and Henderson Harbor, and I was looking forward to a repeat this May.

Thing is... as you note, it's hard to be granular enough with restrictions. What would be the optics of the land border being restricted to essential travel, but yacht owners free to swan about?

Secondly, as the transiting BC to Alaska incidents have shown, if you leave a loophole, people will jump through it. So if the Great Lakes were open to cross-border travel, frustrated people would exploit it - a surge in yacht rentals or carriage... sail/motor across a Great Lake, rent a car... It's not the actual Great Lakes cruisers that concern us so much.

This year's gone for cross-border cruising, and much local cruising too. Looking forward to better times next year.

[Tetepare]

Originally Posted by wannacat

Well said and we should end this thread on that note!

If you're referring to my post, I thank you.


However, I think this should (unfortunately) be a long-running thread.


Cruisers- and service providers- need to enjoy safe liberty of travel and assurances of services. More than my own travel plans, and the unfortunate sadness of missing cruising Canadians, I worry for the marinas, restaurants, etc.


This year is almost over. But think forward to next year.



If COVID (that's "IF") infections on either side of the border remain exactly where they are today, we MUST fight the governments to open Lake Ontario at the least.


Right now there are TWO cases in Kingston- TWO. There is no reason cruisers from Kingston should not come to NY. There are ZERO new cases in my county. There is no reason I should not be able to sail to Gan.


But from there it gets political. Infection rates for the STATE of NY look better when they lump Upstate with NYC. Infection rates for Upstate and Finger Lakes look politically better when urban rates are watered down with rural areas.



Why should rural cruising communities suffer due to state/ province data? Only because of politics. At some point, we (both Canadian and American) must elect to fight our governments, their statistics, and politics in order to save our cruising communities. Or not.


If COVID does not come roaring back come fall, or if it is contained by spring, I hope Lake Ontario boaters will rise to save our marinas, restaurants, and small communities. I don't know what will happen- we will see. But we need to look at this with an eye to recovery based on local statistics, not broad-based and political.

[hpeer]

To back up the above suggestions about data granularity here are the official NY STATE statistics.

https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov...r=no&%3Atabs=n

It’s not bad to see that this was a NY CITY event.

Mike,

We have had discussions about granularity before. I wanted to point out that for the EU, with a population roughly equivalent (440) to the USA (350), we look at individual countries.

It’s rather weird to compare say Sweden to the USA, 10 million vs. 350.
But it is very appropriate to compare Sweden say NJ, 10 million vs 9 million.

It is indeed more granular to look at things on a county level. But when you do you find stark differences.

Newfoundland has a death rate of 6/million, not the roughly 400/million of canada in general. St Johns and Toronto are not equivalents. They, the Atlantic bubble, is surely looking at local variations.

[rslifkin]

Just by the nature of COVID and NYC itself, it shouldn't surprise anyone that NYC went off like a bomb (and provided warning for the rest of us in areas that chose to be smart). Disease with a long incubation time plus a city with tons of people close together, lots of public transit, etc. By the time you know about 1 case there, you've got tens of thousands.

For those of us in upstate NY where things aren't so bad, being able to go to Canada would be nice, but at the same time, having to skip that for a summer isn't the end of the world. There are still enough other places to go on our side of the lake that the Canada trips can just wait for another time.

[Howler]

Great discussion, but there’s one option that wasn’t covered. With tongue firmly planted in cheek, here goes. Upstate New York could secede from the United States (perhaps after offering New York City to New Jersey or Connecticut). As pointed out, this region has handled the pandemic as well as our friends in Ontario with whom we share the eponymous lake, so there would be no reason for the border to remain closed between Canada and our newly formed sovereign nation.

On a serious note, we miss seeing our cruising friends from the northern side of the lake, and the many beautiful cruising locations in Ontario. Hope to see you soon!

[Time2Go]

Originally Posted by Joli

We seem to be tearing the world apart over a virus that is under control and no more harmful then the flu. Hopefully better times and calmer heads will soon prevail.

And there you have it, just the US
175,000 dead, no worries
5,000,000 infected , no worries
US Passport Worthless, no worries

But don’t despair, I’ve got a deal for you
There’s this bridge connecting
Brooklyn to Manhattan, Been up for over a hundred years
I can let you have it for a cool 1 Million, No Worries
I guarantee a high rate of return
and I’m not even a Prince of some
far off country.

Cheers
Neil

[rslifkin]

Originally Posted by Howler

Great discussion, but there’s one option that wasn’t covered. With tongue firmly planted in cheek, here goes. Upstate New York could secede from the United States (perhaps after offering New York City to New Jersey or Connecticut). As pointed out, this region has handled the pandemic as well as our friends in Ontario with whom we share the eponymous lake, so there would be no reason for the border to remain closed between Canada and our newly formed sovereign nation.

On a serious note, we miss seeing our cruising friends from the northern side of the lake, and the many beautiful cruising locations in Ontario. Hope to see you soon!

When I first moved up here I'd periodically end up thinking of it as "South Canada". So maybe that's not so far fetched after all...

[Howler]

Originally Posted by rslifkin

When I first moved up here I'd periodically end up thinking of it as "South Canada". So maybe that's not so far fetched after all...

Good thinking. That could the our name!

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Howler

Good thinking. That could the our name!

I vote for "Newer York".

[kmacdonald]

Originally Posted by Howler

Great discussion, but there’s one option that wasn’t covered. With tongue firmly planted in cheek, here goes. Upstate New York could secede from the United States (perhaps after offering New York City to New Jersey or Connecticut). As pointed out, this region has handled the pandemic as well as our friends in Ontario with whom we share the eponymous lake, so there would be no reason for the border to remain closed between Canada and our newly formed sovereign nation.

On a serious note, we miss seeing our cruising friends from the northern side of the lake, and the many beautiful cruising locations in Ontario. Hope to see you soon!

Great! Glad they handled it so well. Does that mean they don't need a financial federal bailout to cover the costs? That's what I thought.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by hpeer

Mike,

Baring the last comment, which is unfortunately inflammatory, he makes a lot of good points.

That's why I was careful to quote what I did. I agree, the USA (as is often the case) showed its true colours as a warm and welcoming place that is willing to step up when many other nations do not.

It's unfortunate (s)he included this final, false, paragraph.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by hpeer

Mike,

We have had discussions about granularity before. I wanted to point out that for the EU, with a population roughly equivalent (440) to the USA (350), we look at individual countries.

It’s rather weird to compare say Sweden to the USA, 10 million vs. 350.
But it is very appropriate to compare Sweden say NJ, 10 million vs 9 million.

It is indeed more granular to look at things on a county level. But when you do you find stark differences.

Newfoundland has a death rate of 6/million, not the roughly 400/million of canada in general. St Johns and Toronto are not equivalents. They, the Atlantic bubble, is surely looking at local variations.

Indeed, we have had this discussion Howard. My point remains the same; international borders and entry restrictions are maintained at a state-to-state level. I completely agree that there is a wide range of infection rates from region to region, and it's not fair to lump them all together -- but that's the way international borders operate. Life isn't fair.

If we could drill down to region, county or even municipality level, it would be far more sensible. But that would then require a level of intrusive tracking of individuals that would then have to be shared with a foreign country which I don't think anyone would support. How else can the foreign country be sure person X, coming from a low risk area, hasn't actually traveled to a high risk area in the last 14 days?