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Old 20-08-2020, 04:12   #1
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US / Canada border restrictions predictions...

Any predictions on how long the Canada / USA border restrictions could last? I realize this is opening Pandora's Box but maybe some of you have either an "inside scoop" or a sensible idea of what we are looking at. What will it take to reintroduce cross border travel? I suspect it will take a change in political administration along with a concerted effort to control pandemic spread. Could this bring us into 2022?
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Old 20-08-2020, 04:20   #2
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Re: US / Canada border restrictions predictions...

We are not going to open our borders until the chaos South of them reduces.

Sorry, but I'm in support of that.
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Old 20-08-2020, 04:49   #3
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Re: US / Canada border restrictions predictions...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rol1964 View Post
Any predictions on how long the Canada / USA border restrictions could last? I realize this is opening Pandora's Box but maybe some of you have either an "inside scoop" or a sensible idea of what we are looking at. What will it take to reintroduce cross border travel? I suspect it will take a change in political administration along with a concerted effort to control pandemic spread. Could this bring us into 2022?
The only "politics" affecting this are Canadian. We (as a population) are strongly in favour of keeping the borders closed for our own health and safety. Any politician who would dare request the borders be open now would have their rear ends handed to them in the next election. That is something politicians usually try to avoid.



@LittleWing77; you and every other citizen I've spoken with - me included!
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Old 20-08-2020, 05:12   #4
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Re: US / Canada border restrictions predictions...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rol1964 View Post
Any predictions on how long the Canada / USA border restrictions could last? I realize this is opening Pandora's Box but maybe some of you have either an "inside scoop" or a sensible idea of what we are looking at. What will it take to reintroduce cross border travel? I suspect it will take a change in American political administration along with their concerted effort to control pandemic spread and increasing containment. Could this bring us into 2022?
Edited for clarification
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Old 20-08-2020, 05:36   #5
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Re: US / Canada border restrictions predictions...

I'm glad to see that somebody has a good public health plan. The U.S. doesn't have the patience to follow through on anything.
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Old 20-08-2020, 06:19   #6
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Re: US / Canada border restrictions predictions...

No inside information but a friend of mine just sailed his boat from North Carolina to St. John's NFLD.

He and his crew had no problem flying to the boat from Canada and sailing up the coast.

They did a non-stop passage from Boston to St. John's as St. John's was to be their final destination and they expected some level of quarantine upon arrival.

I believe that the 19 passage was accepted as the self isolation period (14 days) required.
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Old 20-08-2020, 06:33   #7
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Re: US / Canada border restrictions predictions...

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Any predictions on how long the Canada / USA border restrictions could last?
My gut feeling is that the current restrictions could last til at least Christmas, and probably longer.

Easing of this border restriction (and of restrictions on most travel) will probably mirror the restrictions on large assemblies, entertainments, trade shows, etc. When both countries feel that the risks of unrestricted (and untracked) movement and public assembly are sufficiently low, I expect that relaxation of border and travel restrictions will follow. Could be sometime in 2021 before this will be closer to 'normal'.
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Old 20-08-2020, 06:52   #8
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Re: US / Canada border restrictions predictions...

I will be a little more optimistic than 2022. The new administration comes into power in late January. If strong controls are put in place by say end of February - everyone knows what needs to be done, just the will is needed, numbers could be dramatically reduced within a month or six weeks. Say the border opens around the end of April. A lot of what ifs there, but it is possible.
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Old 20-08-2020, 07:17   #9
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Re: US / Canada border restrictions predictions...

You could take some dice or a roulette wheel and get better results.


A public health issue is serious enough to warrant what some consider "inconvenience." And some individuals have reasonably valid concerns about their boats or properties on either side of the border, as well as commercial issues.



I just don't think those issues can possibly be as critical as public health.


Nor do most Canadians.


We all wish the Americans well and hope they get their act together for the public good.
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Old 20-08-2020, 08:06   #10
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Re: US / Canada border restrictions predictions...

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Originally Posted by AiniA View Post
I will be a little more optimistic than 2022. The new administration comes into power in late January. If strong controls are put in place by say end of February - everyone knows what needs to be done, just the will is needed, numbers could be dramatically reduced within a month or six weeks. Say the border opens around the end of April. A lot of what ifs there, but it is possible.
I don't think you are taking into account the nature of the American's state/federal relationship. Look at Canada...we can't get policy agreement across our fairly small (in province count) and unified country and still have the eastern half locked down for the foreseeable future.

I wouldn't bet the Americans with their stronger republican (as in republic, not the party) ethos will be able to get the kind of policy agreements needed to make everyone along the entire 5500 miles comfortable enough to open it up—and I don't see piecemeal working at all given the Alaska loophole fiascos.

My prediction: it will stay closed until something breaks: vaccine, herd immunity, aluminum shortage, a f-35 deal... what have you.
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Old 20-08-2020, 08:28   #11
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Re: US / Canada border restrictions predictions...

I suspect it will stay closed as long as the Liberals think it would hurt them at the polls. If Trudeau removed for some reason, that might speed up reopening. There would be an election. Majority would mean they could re open.
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Old 20-08-2020, 08:32   #12
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Re: US / Canada border restrictions predictions...

As others have said, it won't open until the virus is better contained here in the US. The Northeast got their act together and have beat back the virus. NY's infection rate is less than 1% of the tested population. If the rest of the country had paid attention and followed NY's lead, we'd all be in better shape.
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Old 20-08-2020, 08:35   #13
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Re: US / Canada border restrictions predictions...

Most of my relatives live in the USA. As much as I miss them, I believe the border should remain closed until at least after the Presidential inauguration. Maybe later if there is unrest.

We miss you guys, but our health and safety is paramount.
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Old 20-08-2020, 08:40   #14
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Re: US / Canada border restrictions predictions...

It is going to take a major reduction in virus cases in the US for Canada to consider opening the border. And currently there is no significant reduction,
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Old 20-08-2020, 08:57   #15
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Re: US / Canada border restrictions predictions...

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It is going to take a major reduction in virus cases in the US for Canada to consider opening the border. And currently there is no significant reduction,
Except that 30%+ (average) reduction in new cases over the last three weeks...Unfortunately I believe that due to complete lack of direction the US is roughly following Sweden in their modelling. With that in mind there is a good possibility that the US will be through the bulk of COVID while Canada will continue to drag it out for the long term with further lock downs this winter. Following the trajectory of Sweden and current US trends there is also a possibility that the US may start seeing substantial reductions in active cases before the November election which could bolster Trumps presidential bid. Not saying who/what is right or wrong just facts and observations. With that said I don't see the border opening until after the New Year.
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