U.S. to close..

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

...So far as Covid, it’s overwhelmingly the old and or infirm that succumb to it, like many or most diseases.

Indeed, just like many other diseases. Unlike most diseases, Covid-19 is highly contagious, even from completely healthy individuals. This is why public health measures aimed at starving the disease, or at least lowing its spread rate, is really the only tool we have at our current disposal.

Originally Posted by a64pilot

What I find interesting is there so many of you are so sure that wearing masks and “shutting down” even for only two weeks would end the Pandemic, I find it interesting that so many of you think that wearing a t shirt over your face does much at all.

I'm not sure who you're talking about. I don't think anyone on this thread has said such things, but maybe I missed the quote. What has been said -- based on actual research and science, not just conjecture -- is that we can control the disease by lowering the transmission rate. Physical distancing, limited cohorts, good hygiene practices, and mask wearing (when physical distancing is not viable) are simple ways to lower the rate of transmission.

As for masks, these too have now been well studied. Wearing a t-shirt over your face does little to block transmission, but wearing a high thread count cotton weave mask certainly does. These masks are readily available now, and can easily be made at home. And they have been shown to be highly effective.

Originally Posted by a64pilot

I think it could do more harm than good, why? because many think that a mask will protect them so they go shopping etc, when they wouldn’t if they thought they had no protection.

That's a fine theory. I've not seen any experiment that tests this hypothesis. Too many variables I suspect. But it demonstrates why the mask wearing is lower down the priority list of useful practices: physical distancing being the number one factor.

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Nothing is as simple as you guys want it to be.

True. If it was simple, I'd have had a good season cruising Newfoundland this past summer, instead of motorcycling across Canada.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

They aren't separate items where you must come down on one side or the other...In fact the ham handed approach certainly boosted the fear factor through the roof....

As usual, we don't have to speculate. It's a hotly researched topic now. Here's the latest study from the University of Chicago:

Fear, Lockdown, and Diversion: Comparing Drivers of Pandemic Economic Decline 2020

The collapse of economic activity in 2020 from COVID-19 has been immense. An important question is how much of that collapse resulted from government-imposed restrictions on activity versus people voluntarily choosing to stay home to avoid infection. ... While overall consumer traffic fell by 60 percentage points, legal restrictions explain only 7 percentage points of this. Individual choices were far more important and seem tied to fears of infection.

As with other similar research, the findings show that the lockdowns actually contribute a significant, but still relatively small portion of the economic decline. Consumer behaviour in the face of the pandemic appears to be the larger factor.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

As usual, we don't have to speculate.

No we don't have to speculate.

Govt shuts down a businesses for several months and they will go bankrupt the vast majority of the time.

Add massive govt restrictions and costs to a business allowed to remain open and many will go bankrupt.

Monday morning quarterbacking by speculators doesn't change those facts. Plus when the fear is caused by that same govt telling people they can't go out and buy gardening supplies so they can isolate...it's a reach to claim the govt ham handedness wasn't the primary driver of the problem.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

As usual, we don't have to speculate. It's a hotly researched topic now. Here's the latest study from the University of Chicago:

Fear, Lockdown, and Diversion: Comparing Drivers of Pandemic Economic Decline 2020

As with other similar research, the findings show that the lockdowns actually contribute a significant, but still relatively small portion of the economic decline. Consumer behaviour in the face of the pandemic appears to be the larger factor.

Good link. Another economic factor is that most western economies were having an extended bull run which according to many analysts was overdue for a correction (which is usually in the range of a 10% drop) and the pandemic triggered it.

The fear issue is affected by a few factors, not least what information they receive daily, but also their trust and confidence that the pandemic is being managed competently, that the hardships are necessary, and that there will be supports and other considerations to ease their hardships.

I hope that for most people the fear has been largely replaced by a sort of weary acceptance that it's still bad now, but also optimism that the end is nigh, in the form of vaccines. It's down to what we're willing to do over the next several months to keep illness and death numbers down.

Originally Posted by valhalla360

...when the fear is caused by that same govt telling people they can't go out and buy gardening supplies so they can isolate...it's a reach to claim the govt ham handedness wasn't the primary driver of the problem.

While I won't disagree about some governments' ham-handedness, a bunch of armed hotheads all upset because they can't buy their potted mums is a reminder that several groups all bolted the pandemic to their own agendas and have helped ramp up the FUD as well.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

No we don't have to speculate.



Govt shuts down a businesses for several months and they will go bankrupt the vast majority of the time.



Add massive govt restrictions and costs to a business allowed to remain open and many will go bankrupt.



Monday morning quarterbacking by speculators doesn't change those facts. Plus when the fear is caused by that same govt telling people they can't go out and buy gardening supplies so they can isolate...it's a reach to claim the govt ham handedness wasn't the primary driver of the problem.

Guess you couldn't be bothered to even read the abstract.

[Singularity]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Lord I love how you people twist things.
A comment was made that nursing’s homes are where people go to die, and you people start trying to suggest they were talking about the Nazi gas chambers.....

I think it could do more harm than good, why? because many think that a mask will protect them so they go shopping etc, when they wouldn’t if they thought they had no protection.

Nothing is as simple as you guys want it to be.

The risk phenomena to which you're referring is somewhere in the risk compensation rubric and it is more complicated than you want it to be. Now, you can end-around a lot of calculations and cite the law of large numbers as a means of avoiding more critical thought, but it's that type of critical thought that's en-masse absent here in the first place. It results in chaos such that one cannot connect the dots of one's own doing. No feedback loop as required to learn anything.

Assuming you were familiar with the Spanish flu prior to Covid, what did you see happening in the US if the US was confronted with a Spanish flu-type virus with equal lethality? Did you see yourself going out for breakfast with others? Did you not expect massive business closings? Massive economic downturn? Or did you expect pizza parlors to remain open? People decrying the futility of masks? Having parties when advised not to do so?

Or if, in the future, the US experiences an outbreak with a virus with equal lethality to the Spanish flu, how do you expect the US should respond? What should people expect in terms of necessary lifestyle changes?

[boatpoker]

Have not bothered to read the research. Don't believe much of what any gov't or media pumps out.

We stay away from people as much as possible, we've been wearing masks when we have to go out since late Feb. We don't have covid.
I'm satisfied with that.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by SalingSue

............
If it was left to real people, you would NEVER OK some confirmed Covid positive person moving in with your grandma, no one, other than gov, would think that was a bright idea.

I would be interested to know the rationale behind that particular move because on the surface, it completely fails the 'pub test'. I don't think even an Aussie pollie would have survived that move.

What was the secret that allowed them to keep their job after that cluster...k?

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Wotname

I would be interested to know the rationale behind that particular move because on the surface, it completely fails the 'pub test'. I don't think even an Aussie pollie would have survived that move.

What was the secret that allowed them to keep their job after that cluster...k?

A long read on Snopes, if you're interested.

The mitigating factors include:

• the order was for stable and recovering patients to be moved to nursing homes, in order to leave more hospital beds available for acute and critical cases
• at the time of the order (Mar 25), there were no overflow capabilities online yet
• at least 13 other states had also issued the same directive
• asymptomatic and post-illness spread wasn't fully understood
• tests were in short supply, so homes were directed to not test transferred patients
• a lot of staff were testing positive; they were certainly a cause too.

It certainly seems short-sighted and incompetent to have sent potentially infected patients into nursing homes. The most innocent explanation is the fog of war.

[a64pilot]

That’s another myth, Covid is NOT highly contagious, if it were then the infection rate would be very much higher than it is, almost a year into the disease.

You guys want to say Covid is much worse than the flu, but the Spanish flu killed 50 million, in a world of far fewer people and 1/3 of the Earths population was infected.

That is an example of a virulent virus.

On edit, Covid is actually a very mild Pandemic, thankfully, there have been in the past actual real horrible ones, with massive death rates. To me Covid isn’t the boogey man many kept saying was, and they are still rallying behind that millions will die
“something” must be done.

However, Covid hopefully will be treated as a case study, a training exercise if you will. so that one day when the real no kidding new black death comes along we will execute a plan that is in place and all it needs is an execute order.

But I’m not holding my breath.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by Singularity

Or if, in the future, the US experiences an outbreak with a virus with equal lethality to the Spanish flu, how do you expect the US should respond? What should people expect in terms of necessary lifestyle changes?

People are stupid as a rule, look at how many believe whatever their favorite celebrity tells them. and or what their favorite political group tells them, even when it’s ridiculous.

I believe within a year of the end of the pandemic, things will return to “normal” that is people will cluster together in huge massive crowds, because many enjoy that. God know why. I can’t stand it myself, but then I’m odd.
The party with thousands appeals to many.

But to try to understand what happened to a great extent and to understand why it took so long for any measures to be taken, you don’t need to look any further than the Challenger disaster. It was called normalization of deviation, in short NASA’s leadership, which were career politicians and not Engineers or Scientists became accustomed to the Engineers and Scientists pulling off miracles on such a regular basis it became normal.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalization_of_deviance

Well guess what, “We” especially since the invention of antibiotics have become so used to modern medicine pulling off miracles that we have become complacent.
Yes I’m aware that antibiotics have no effect on a Virus.

Agin on edit, sorry.
But in my opinion we shouldn’t wait for the Pandemic that has similar to or worse than the Spanish Flu, I think we need to change society, and not cluster together in huge massive crowds, but I don’t believe that will happen, too many enjoy it.
An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

[a64pilot]

I don’t know what people will do for the next Pandemic, but I will do what I’m doing now, which is essentially become a hermit, going out only when necessary, avoiding contact as much as possible, shopping at odd hours when the store is almost empty etc.

My original intent was to sit it out on the boat in a remote area, that was when I was stupid and thought it wouldn’t last long. I should have known better, but believed I guess what I wanted to believe.
It’s kind of like War, every war that there ever was, the common person and soldiers thought it would be over by Christmas, and it is, just it may be a few Christmases though.

So what I am saying is that what people are doing with masks is stupid, that is they go shopping and just out amongst other people and feel safe because they are wearing masks.

I believe they should stay home as much as possible and only go out when necessary.
Most working age people are of an age that they aren’t in as dangerous position as if they were older, and unfortunately many have to work, there is no choice.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

That’s another myth, Covid is NOT highly contagious ...

How contagious is "highly contagious"?
A number of groups have estimated the basic reproductive rate (R0)*, of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), to be somewhere between 1.5 and 4.8, but most usually given as 2.5
An R0 of 2.5 would give COVID-19 an infection rate higher than both H1N1 influenza in 2009 (1.46 to 1.48), and the 2014 Ebola outbreak (1.5 to 2.5), and on par with the influenza pandemic of 1918 (2 to 3), and at the low end of estimates for SARS (2 to 5).
Several common infectious diseases have much higher R0s, including measles (12 to 18), rubella (6 to 7) and mumps (4 to 7).

* Simply explained, the basic reproduction number (R0) represents the average number of people infected by one infectious individual. The effective reproduction number (Re) depends on the population’s current susceptibility.
Re captures transmission, once a virus becomes more common, and as public health measures are initiated. Re is typically much lower than R0.

“Covid-19: What is the R number?” ➥ https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1891


Currently, those at greatest risk of infection are persons who have had prolonged, unprotected close contact (i.e., within 6 feet for 15 minutes or longer) with a patient with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, regardless of whether the patient has symptoms.
Approximately 57,042,406 cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed worldwide. There have been 11,718,867 cases in the U.S. between January 2020 and November 20, 2020 (10 months).
The World Health Organization estimates that 1 billion people worldwide get the flu every year.
There have been approximately 1,362,424 Covid-19 deaths reported worldwide. In the U.S, 252,564 people have died of COVID-19 between January 2020 and November 20, 2020 (10 months).
The World Health Organization estimates that 290,000 to 650,000 people die of flu-related causes every year worldwide.

[a64pilot]

Using your numbers I’d say highly contagious is up there with Measles, or higher. Something that is only 20% as contagious as Measles is tough to label as highly contagious?

But then from my reading, the influenza outbreak of 1918 was much worse, while your numbers say it’s not.

1/3 of the world population was infected and showing signs of illness, knowing what we know know it was likely much higher than 1/3, with many not showing symptoms.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/05-0979_article

What’s the infection rate of Covid? surely well less than 10%? I can’t find that answer myself.
Gord, you know by now that with Covid you can find any number you want to, with the extreme of one side saying it doesn’t even exist, it’s a hoax, and th extreme of th either side saying that we are all going to die, both sides have “proof”

[El Pinguino]

If anyone has time on their hands they may be interested in how Australia dealt with Covid.
Simply put... you don't muck around with partial 'lockdowns' .. you just get in there and sort it out.
By the end of April we pretty much had it beaten and our subsequent problem - essentially in one city - was the result of poor quarantine procedures for returning cits...

I live in the worst affected state...
OK I'm in a rural area but have family and friends down in Melbourne so I have an idea what it has been like down there.
Yes the public housing lockdown was a bit extreme and the months after the second outbreak in Melbourne a bit hard on some.
We are not experiencing mass suicides and the economy will recover soon enough... same as after all the other knocks we have taken since federation...

Enjoy the read..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-...c_in_Australia