Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[laird]

Looks like its on the decline in England ( for the mean time) ,the R number is estimated to be down at 0.8 , politics and statisticians aside, this virus is going to be around for a long time ,government will be reticent to ease lockdown restrictions in case of a recurrent due to the virus mutating into new strains ,so far we have had the chinese,uk south african and Brazilian strains

I think this is going to be the millennium flu ,changing every year and requiring a different jab each year in the same way that we do with flu

@gord , i read those reports also , they do mot make for pleasant reading

[laird]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Oh, come on. Just I lived in this part of the world for a few decades so knowing something about this is inescapable. Also have a good friend who is a Russian archeologist who is deeply involved in studying the origins of the Indo-Europeans. Finland's history is deeply connected to all of this.

The Slavs and the Finno-Ugric peoples are a bit like the Celts and the Franco-Germanic peoples of Western Europe. The Celts by something BC occupied most of Western Europe, and were then steadily displaced by the Franco-Germanic tribes and the Romans. They were pushed back and back and back until they remained only in a few last pockets -- Ireland, Scotland, Wales, Brittany, Cornwall, in a fraction of their former extent.

See here: Attachment 230852

Yellow is the original homeland of the Celts; green is maximum extent some centuries B.C., dark green is present extent. From: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped..._in_Europe.png
Same thing in the Northern half of European Russia -- originally occupied mostly by Finno-Ugric peoples and gradually displaced by Indo-European Slavs, leaving just pockets here and there, and with some groups pushed well back into Finland, Estonia, and present-day Hungary, just like the Celts were pushed back into Ireland, Scotland, Wales, and Cornwall. At the time of the start of the conquest under Claudius, the Romans found Britain inhabited almost entirely by Celts. These had in their turn pushed back the Hyperborians and others, centuries before. It's the age-old story of mankind.

Whilst it is a bit off thread ,i enjoy the sunject of tribal movements, have you had your DNA tested For your roots ?
Mine came back as 96% north european and 4% from anatolia
My ancestry followed the path of varangian mercenaries, the men in my linage have dark hair and do well in sunlight , the ladies are mostly blond ,blue eyed and cannot tolerate direct sunlight
It anoys my daughters no end ,that i can pick up a tan in one day of mediteran sun than they can after 3 weeks of uk sunbeds

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

We have recently had some arguments in this thread about whether outcome can be equated to "performance". There is tendency among some to attribute worse outcomes to bad "performance", as if the pandemic measures are the single factor determining outcomes. It doesn't mean that pandemic measures have NO influence on outcomes -- of course not. But we should not rush to declare winners and slag off "losers", and we should particularly not indulge confirmation bias to find confirmation of our ideas about what pandemic measures work or don't work, in the outcomes in different countries.

There is so much going on here regarding variability in spread of infection and the rates of resulting serious illness/deaths.

I think in addition to speed and extent of measures taken (not necessarily their severity), there are inherent differences between regions that need to be considered. In no particular order these seem to include the density of population, its health, anything resulting in generally stronger immune systems including lack of Vitamin D deficiency, previous exposure and any natural immunity to other coronaviruses, age profile, social habits, amount of mass interaction (particularly indoors) willingness to comply with government recommendations/restrictions, racial profile, medical facilities, the season ..... etc.

All these are probably interacting in complex ways and there may be a host of other factors, still unknown.

On top of this there is probably some amount of sheer luck.

Trying to find a direct relationship between measures taken and the impact of the pandemic without any consideration of the above is a futile exercise in my opinion.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by laird

Whilst it is a bit off thread ,i enjoy the sunject of tribal movements, have you had your DNA tested For your roots ?
Mine came back as 96% north european and 4% from anatolia
My ancestry followed the path of varangian mercenaries, the men in my linage have dark hair and do well in sunlight , the ladies are mostly blond ,blue eyed and cannot tolerate direct sunlight
It anoys my daughters no end ,that i can pick up a tan in one day of mediteran sun than they can after 3 weeks of uk sunbeds

There are a lot of ways for Anatolian, that is Turkic, DNA to get into you. A significant percentage of us are direct descendants of Ghengis Khan, and even more from Eastern Europe. But skin tone is a poor indicator of lineage -- it is (ironically) the most trivial genetic marker, as it changes rapidly when a people migrate to a different climate. The Finns are as blonde as the Swedes, but are more closely related to the Turks. Have you read Guns, Germs and Steel?

My sister had one of the deep DNA tests and it came back with tiny bit of American Indian (and I know where that came from), and bizarrely -- a non-trivial percentage of Finnish, which is a quite distinct genetic signature because the Finns are not really a European people.

I know all of my ancestors back to at least 10 generations and there are no Finns and no credible way for them to be there, unless there was one in the woodpile somewhere. So I'm thinking the test is mistaken.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

There is so much going on here regarding variability in spread of infection and the rates of resulting serious illness/deaths.

I think in addition to speed and extent of measures taken (not necessarily their severity), there are inherent differences between regions that need to be considered. In no particular order these seem to include the density of population, its health, anything resulting in generally stronger immune systems including lack of Vitamin D deficiency, previous exposure and any natural immunity to other coronaviruses, age profile, social habits, amount of mass interaction (particularly indoors) willingness to comply with government recommendations/restrictions, racial profile, medical facilities, the season ..... etc.

All these are probably interacting in complex ways and there may be a host of other factors, still unknown.

On top of this there is probably some amount of sheer luck.

Trying to find a direct relationship between measures taken and the impact of the pandemic without any consideration of the above is a futile exercise in my opinion.

Absolutely agree with this.


And in the category of "sheer luck", you can include random superspreader events early in the pandemic. It is well known to science by now that these play a huge role in the subsequent dynamics of the pandemic. Italy has one of the worst outcomes in Europe -- is it because their measures were "failures"? Well, they had an early super-superspreader event embodied in dozens of planeloads of Italian businessmen flying in from Wuhan just at the wrong moment, so that they pandemic got a huge start in the industrial regions of Northern Italy, Bergamo and Lombardy, at a time when no one was really prepared. So are the Italians "failures", "losers", "horrible performers", or whatever? Of course not. There is no easy way to measure "performance".

[Pete7]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

That's amazing. Great for the Brits. So the death rate should be dramatically reduced within a month I guess?

Fri 22 Jan 21. UK Prime Minister has just announced on TV that there is now some evidence that the UK strain has a greater mortality rate in comparison to the original Covid. The data is "uncertain" but the numbers suggest 10 in 1000 for the original Covid and 13-14 in 1000 people for the UK variant.

Good news is the vaccinations are effective against the UK variant and antibodies from previous infection are also effective against the UK variant.

Not really enough data about the SA and Brazil variant, but it may be more resistant to vaccinations.


Pete

[laird]

Being adopted ive only managed to gain a limited insite into my heritage
Ive traced two generations on my biological mothers side then that goes blank as she was born on the wrong side of the bed

Lol maybe its a family trait

[Dockhead]

Not Northern Europe, but rather, Eastern Siberia, but here is how one Buryat village is fighting the pandemic:





This is what you have to do, when the village shaman turns out to be a superspreader -- dig two concentric rings of trenches around your village. Good to know.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Not Northern Europe, but rather, Eastern Siberia, but here is how one Buryat village is fighting the pandemic:


Attachment 230888


This is what you have to do, when the village shaman turns out to be a superspreader -- dig two concentric rings of trenches around your village. Good to know.

Maybe the only practical means of stopping anyone from driving/riding in and out of the village?

[goboatingnow]

I looking at predictions here for vaccines. 100000 per week is the current target. But to get to 70%coverage that will take nearly two years. ( 2 injections ) Let’s hope it’s not an annual jab !!!!

Clearly a much higher rate would be needed but the whole medical profession can’t be tied up vaccinating

Hmmmm.....

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Maybe the only practical means of stopping anyone from driving/riding in and out of the village?

Particularly rogue shamans.

[Seaworthy Lass]

The situation in Europe is changing rapidly.

These diagrams reflect the rates of excess deaths across 27 countries, mainly European over the last 4 weeks.
Data is a week behind, as there is a lag in reported cases:
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

England and Portugal have had several particularly bad weeks.

The last data available (week 2 of 2021) indicates:
Sweden, Norway and Finland had “no excess” deaths.
In Denmark, Estonia and Scotland the excess was “low”:

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

The situation in Europe is changing rapidly.

These diagrams reflect the rates of excess deaths across 27 countries, mainly European over the last 4 weeks.
Data is a week behind, as there is a lag in reported cases:
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

England and Portugal have had several particularly bad weeks.

The last data available (week 2 of 2021) indicates:
Sweden, Norway and Finland had “no excess” deaths.
In Denmark, Estonia and Scotland the excess was “low”:

Wasn't someone in this thread proclaiming, with barely concealed glee, that the death rate in Sweden is "exploding"?


It's good to see more and more signs that the second wave is really subsiding in most of Europe, and your data line up well with what the infection and death rates are saying:




Infection rates peaked two weeks ago in the UK despite the mutant strain. Estonia and Latvia are not coming down fast, but not increasing, and not all that high a rate -- Latvia a bit over 400 and Estonia and bit under 400. Sweden has come down very nicely, now falling towards 300, from a peak a couple weeks ago of nearly 750. Germany continues on a slow burn.

Death rates:



Germany and Latvia continue to have a fairly high and stable death rate of a bit over 10. This is reflected in the excess death chart (in the case of Latvia). Sweden has fallen nicely to now well under 10. Estonia is doing much better than Latvia despite similar infection rate.

So if these trends continue, and if Germany and Latvia would finally start falling, then things are looking up somewhat here.

Meanwhile, what concerns travel:

Starting 15 January, Latvia joined a number of other European countries in requiring a PCR test within 72 hours before entry, OR a vaccination certificate, OR a certificate from a doctor stating that the traveler has recovered from a COVID infection.

As luck would have it, I was travelling to Latvia exactly on that day and was not aware of the requirement, and was denied boarding. You can get a free test in Helsinki airport upon arrival, but otherwise you have to pay €200. It's a PITA.

We have been speculating about immunity passports -- well, they are practically here. I guess that these requirements will be in place for a long time, and that it will be really hard to move around without a vaccination certificate, so people who travel will be practically forced to vaccinate.

In some parts of our regions, it's worse. The Danes have closed up their border tight and to all countries. A limited list of essential reasons for travel exists, but all travelers need negative tests taken no more than 24 hours before arrival. They removed the exclusion for people going to their cottages or boats, so I cannot get to my boat for the time being.

Sweden has closed its border tightly to the UK, and to Denmark, in addition to non-European countries.

Finland still has the most relaxed borders in the region. "Non-essential" traffic is banned except from a small list of countries including Australia and China (and there are lots of Chinese tourists here), but you are allowed to come to your cottage or boat or lover, and no test is required (free voluntary test in the airport) and self-isolation is voluntary. Sailors arriving in their own boats are exempt from all of the restrictions, including the voluntary ones.

Tightened borders despite improving epidemiological situation reflect concern about the mutant strains.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Meanwhile, what concerns travel:

Starting 15 January, Latvia joined a number of other European countries in requiring a PCR test within 72 hours before entry, OR a vaccination certificate, OR a certificate from a doctor stating that the traveler has recovered from a COVID infection.

As luck would have it, I was travelling to Latvia exactly on that day and was not aware of the requirement, and was denied boarding. You can get a free test in Helsinki airport upon arrival, but otherwise you have to pay €200. It's a PITA.

We have been speculating about immunity passports -- well, they are practically here. I guess that these requirements will be in place for a long time, and that it will be really hard to move around without a vaccination certificate, so people who travel will be practically forced to vaccinate.

In some parts of our regions, it's worse. The Danes have closed up their border tight and to all countries. A limited list of essential reasons for travel exists, but all travelers need negative tests taken no more than 24 hours before arrival. They removed the exclusion for people going to their cottages or boats, so I cannot get to my boat for the time being.

Sweden has closed its border tightly to the UK, and to Denmark, in addition to non-European countries.

Finland still has the most relaxed borders in the region. "Non-essential" traffic is banned except from a small list of countries including Australia and China (and there are lots of Chinese tourists here), but you are allowed to come to your cottage or boat or lover, and no test is required (free voluntary test in the airport) and self-isolation is voluntary. Sailors arriving in their own boats are exempt from all of the restrictions, including the voluntary ones.

Tightened borders despite improving epidemiological situation reflect concern about the mutant strains.

I think now that vaccination programs are starting and the situation is likely to improve dramatically over the next month or two, given a particularly infectious strain is circulating then tightening borders is reasonable. There is no need for measures at the moment to be sustainable given the situation is going to improve swiftly.

I mentioned earlier that from first hand reports in the UK it seems that no proof of vaccination is being given and to take your yellow book in with you if you have one, or ask for it to be recorded for your personal use. I imagine that with medical facilities overloaded it would be hard to retrospectively get this.

[Seaworthy Lass]

If anyone is interested in what it is like to cruise the lower latitudes of Northern Europe in winter, below are a few photos I took this morning.

It looks like fairyland here . I awoke late, as we had been kept awake half the night with the rumbling of ice moving past our hull. I tried to record the sound, but as with photos of big seas, it was not nearly as impressive as the real thing.

The third photo of our solar panels was taken just minutes ago. Not much output can be hoped for today.

On recent walks we've been so lucky to witness what wildlife photographers spend endless hours trying to capture: mother and cub otters. Two were fishing near the shore last week. Further along another otter carried a crab out of the water and proceed to break it up. It then scurried up the bank to its nest that turned out to be about a metre from where we were standing. We could hear the young squeaking as mum approached and passed directly in front of us. A magic experience, particularly as they are generally so shy! We were downwind and she probably couldn’t smell us, plus vision is apparently poor and we had frozen in place.

Voyeurism is not usually my thing, but two seals were mating off the point yesterday and it was mesmerising watching .