Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by laird

.....One of my grouches is that there are a lot of persons below the age of 50 who seem to think that this virus will not hurt them and as a result are less inclined to follow the rules.
I've seen this virus at first hand ,I've seen one 70 year old shrug it off after a week or so , I've seen the relatives in tears .as they have just lost a loved one ,as a result I'm very careful with regard to this virus and I'm not a risk adverse individual , ex commercial diver and I ride a very fast motorcycle for fun

Take this virus seriously, those of you who complain about lockdown restrictions are fortunate enough to be in a position to complain ,in the UK ,the deaths are at 90k,

This is a very difficult problem to manage after 10 difficult months of restrictions and lockdowns. Young healthy people are actually at very low risk. I don’t have the figures, but there are probably a host of things that will have similar risks of injury or illness and they don’t put their lives on hold for these. These are people who would usually be working, socialising, at school/university, out and about taking part in various activities. The restrictions are probably hardest of all for this group, particularly after so long.

They need to take precautions to protect those around them, not themselves.

We have been taking extreme precautions since early March, well before the first lockdown. It is not just for our own sake, as our risk is not sky high, but because apart from the lockdown we are visiting areas with older aged communities and these very much need to be shielded.

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Hi UFO
It was “paused” not “pulled”. Big difference . It was only one specific batch of vaccine at one community vaccination clinic and sensibly it is being investigated.

Really a bad batch??? Sounds a bit Mickey Mouse and a lot of spin for a multi billion $ operation!

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by UFO

Really a bad batch??? Sounds a bit Mickey Mouse and a lot of spin for a multi billion $ operation!

They are pausing just one batch, not all the Moderna vaccines. Allergic reactions are to be expected with any vaccine. It is unlikely, but also not impossible there is something wrong with the batch. They are just very sensibly investigating. These problems will understandably occur.

Don’t panic .

Edited to add: With every vaccine I have received in Australia, the batch number has been recorded in my yellow vaccination book. Problems do occur with batches. There is nothing “Mickey Mouse” about this.

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

They are pausing just one batch, not all the Moderna vaccines. Allergic reactions are to be expected with any vaccine. It is unlikely, but also not impossible there is something wrong with the batch. They are just very sensibly investigating. These problems will understandably occur.

Don’t panic .

Edited to add: With every vaccine I have received in Australia, the batch number has been recorded in my yellow vaccination book. Problems do occur with batches. There is nothing “Mickey Mouse” about this.

I did not know that you record which batch you had when getting vaccinated, never had one myself and only once for one of my children (never again!), Why record which batch? I presume just in case its a bad batch? Still sounds mickey mouse to me when in such a serious medical intervention it should not happen! Bad Batch sounds like a bad batch of meth that just killed a few hundred not something coming out of the pharmaceutical industry!

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by UFO

Well fortunately for me I am in a position where I can walk away from this country if they start enforcing such draconian laws. It is though to be expected from one of the most police state countries in the world.

No need to fear .

The PM talks tough but disappears inside the bubble when there is pushback. And there would be shipload of pushback against mandated vaccination.

[Capn Jimbo]

A Public Health Perspective:


Sweden’s Failure Continues...



If there is Nordic response (and there isn’t), once again Sweden is by far, the continuing outlier in terms of how they have performed. Allow me to help you understand how we interpret the data. This is a linear chart, so first pay attention to the angle of increase.

As you can see, Sweden’s cases are rising at an angle of around 70 degrees above level. That is very bad. Denmark is increasing at about 30 degrees, Norway a bit less than 20, and Iceland is level. All except Sweden appear to be demonstrating leveling trends.

Now note the color of the lines. Sweden in red indicates a positive test rate of 10 – 20% (considered out of control), while all the others are blue, positives only about 2% (controllable). Sweden’s 10 -20% positive test rate indicates continuing rapid growth of cases and expected following deaths. If there actually was a “sustainable Nordic response”, Sweden is not part of it and is in serious trouble. Again – at least in my professional world – there is no such thing.

Each country acts alone and independently, choosing from thousands of interventions, in literally millions of possible combinations, constantly changing and adapting. It just so happens that Sweden chose their own very unique response performance, and provides an excellent example from which we can all learn.


CJ
Public Health, 30 years

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Wotname

No need to fear .

The PM talks tough but disappears inside the bubble when there is pushback. And there would be shipload of pushback against mandated vaccination.

Just like there was a shipload of pushback to prevent mandated stay at home lockdowns for four solid months and all night curfews?

Just stirring

PS What other way is there out of this for Australia other than to make vaccination mandatory, or as the PM said last August “as mandatory as possible”? Not permitting people into government buildings and regulating that businesses are able to do the same (this is already being discussed) will prevent some people from working. Whether it will occur due to a public health order or simply by restrictions such as this, it seems likely it may be enforced.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Capn Jimbo

A Public Health Perspective:

Sweden’s Failure Continues...

If there is Nordic response (and there isn’t), once again Sweden is by far, the continuing outlier in terms of how they have performed. Allow me to help you understand how we interpret the data. This is a linear chart, so first pay attention to the angle of increase.

As you can see, Sweden’s cases are rising at an angle of around 70 degrees above level. That is very bad. Denmark is increasing at about 30 degrees, Norway a bit less than 20, and Iceland is level. All except Sweden appear to be demonstrating leveling trends.

Now note the color of the lines. Sweden in red indicates a positive test rate of 10 – 20% (considered out of control), while all the others are blue, positives only about 2% (controllable). Sweden’s 10 -20% positive test rate indicates continuing rapid growth of cases and expected following deaths. If there actually was a “sustainable Nordic response”, Sweden is not part of it and is in serious trouble. Again – at least in my professional world – there is no such thing.

Each country acts alone and independently, choosing from thousands of interventions, in literally millions of possible combinations, constantly changing and adapting. It just so happens that Sweden chose their own very unique response performance, and provides an excellent example from which we can all learn.

CJ
Public Health, 30 years

I have given quite a bit of detail on what is the Nordic approach to controlling the pandemic. If you don't think Sweden belongs to that, then why don't you give your own details? What is so different in the Swedish approach? You assert that it is unique, but other than an exaggerated picture of the outcome in Sweden -- which is in the middle third of European countries (or best third if you are counting the more accurate way, with excess mortality) -- you have not provided any information. If you have special knowledge, as you keep asserting that you do, please share it.


As to the "horrible failure" in Sweden, this is, as I said, exaggerated. You are claiming that this "failure" can be measured by the angle of the curve on some given day -- that's meaningless, something you apparently made up yourself, and not the way it's done. Professionals use DOUBLING TIME because that gives a long enough period for meaningful evaluation of an exponential growth curve. A couple of weeks ago you were claiming that the Swedish curves were horrible; but I showed that the doubling rate then in Sweden was actually near the lowest in the region. The post was here: https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3319636. You never replied.


And now again you distort the picture totally. NOW, two weeks later, this situation has evolved to the point where both infection rates and the lagging death rates are going down:






So far from "horrible failure", Sweden has had a fairly typical for Europe second wave, with daily death rate exceeding the European average only for a few days, and has turned the curve down at least as efficiently as countries which employed lockdown for the purpose.


Similar situation to Denmark:






And as to how the second wave has been handled in Sweden and Denmark -- almost identical measures, no lockdown, no closing of schools.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by UFO

I did not know that you record which batch you had when getting vaccinated, never had one myself and only once for one of my children (never again!), Why record which batch? I presume just in case its a bad batch? Still sounds mickey mouse to me when in such a serious medical intervention it should not happen! Bad Batch sounds like a bad batch of meth that just killed a few hundred not something coming out of the pharmaceutical industry!

Batches are recorded in case there are problems. Not necessarily “killing a few hundred” though . If you do not have a record of this, then at least your GP does.

I respect that you are entitled to your opinion. No arguments from me there, but have you considered that the side effects from therapeutic drugs are far worse than those from vaccines?

Have you ever given one of your children an aspirin? Do you know that it is not approved for use in children in the US due to the risk of Reye syndrome?

Drugs initially approved as being “safe” are sometimes removed off the market when serious side effects occur. All this is part and parcel of anything therapeutic, whether it be drugs or surgery or vaccines.

Here is a list of a few of these. Have a look at the reason some of these “safe” drugs were removed from use, some long after they were first prescribed. This is not even universal:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_withdrawn_drugs

Vaccines can literally be lifesaving. One way or another, previously common diseases such as smallpox and polio and scarlet fever and diphtheria and rubella etc have destroyed countless lives. Even measles: “Measles in older children can lead to inflammation of the brain, called encephalitis, which can cause seizures and brain damage.”

Are you never going to pop a pill in your entire life for fear of side effects? If so, your life span (or quality of life) is likely to be significantly reduced.

I believe it is not sensible to be dogmatic in your views (although I have been known to jump up and down about some issues ). YMMV.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Sorry everyone for the thread drift. This just sometimes occurs naturally as conversations evolve .

Regarding what is occurring in Northern Europe, here are some graphs representing excess deaths up until the end of the first week this year.
Go to the website for full explanations of how this data is presented:
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

In the Nordic countries the approach to handling the pandemic has made been very different to that in the rest of Europe when considering the lack of stay at home lockdowns. This is part of the “Nordic approach”. Figures for excess deaths differ, but even in Sweden that for some reason is being demonised, the numbers are relatively low so far.

I do not think we can pin outcome purely to restrictions though. Go to the website to see out how different the curves are for two adjacent countries in the UK where restrictions have not been all that different: Scotland and England. This is a complex situation. I do think looking at all the graphs for excess deaths lends a better perspective than simply looking at figures of total deaths, though. The elderly that account for the vast majority of deaths “from” COVID-19 will unfortunately die in great numbers yearly from other natural causes, particularly in winter, and counting all these deaths skews the data.

I have attached curves for the Nordic countries plus a couple from England and Spain. I don’t know how anyone can criticise the “Nordic Approach” (including Sweden) when looking at this data:

[goboatingnow]

Excess deaths are a very dubious metric , because social distancing has significantly suppressed deaths from flues and other communicative diseases. Hence it’s a very unreliable metric when used in a situation where there’s are worldwide restrictions.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Excess deaths are a very dubious metric , because social distancing has significantly suppressed deaths from flues and other communicative diseases. Hence it’s a very unreliable metric when used in a situation where there’s are worldwide restrictions.

I know we differ with our opinions here.

I know it does not present the full picture, but in the absence of anything else occurring significantly on a global scale, I think it is about the most informative single measure to look at when considering the total impact of the pandemic.

Certainly most measures taken would be impacting this figure favourably. But deaths may also be higher due to conditions that are going untreated or badly treated as a result of unavailable medical care, plus suicides, etc. There may even be a greater loss of total years of life lost due to this, as younger people may be involved.

Simply looking at total deaths when it is primarily the elderly dying and so many of these unfortunately die anyway, particularly in the winter months, is very misleading.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

I know we differ with our opinions here.

I know it does not present the full picture, but in the absence of anything else occurring significantly on a global scale, I think it is about the most informative single measure to look at when considering the total impact of the pandemic.

Certainly most measures taken would be impacting this figure favourably. But deaths may also be higher due to conditions that are going untreated or badly treated as a result of unavailable medical care, plus suicides, etc. There may even be a greater loss of total years of life lost due to this, as younger people may be involved.

Simply looking at total deaths when it is primarily the elderly dying and so many of these unfortunately die anyway, particularly in the winter months, is very misleading.

Ultimately it will be very difficult to extract who died from Covid that might have otherwise survived ( and for how long thereafter )

What’s clear is it a vastly nastier disease then the “ uncommon “ flu. More deaths , long tail illness etc.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Ultimately it will be very difficult to extract who died from Covid that might have otherwise survived ( and for how long thereafter )

What’s clear is it a vastly nastier disease then the “ uncommon “ flu. More deaths , long tail illness etc.

I agree completely.

PS I have just found that Irish Colcannon cakes made with red cabbage are a wonderful treat. Comfort food at its best. They do end up a slightly peculiar colour though .

[Capn Jimbo]

Sweden Finally Tightens Covid Measures After Being Slammed by Virus: Sweden, Odd Man Out

Quoting Bloomberg:

“Like many places Sweden has learned about the virus the hard way,” said William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s School of Public Health in Boston, who has followed the country’s strategy closely. “Sweden was too slow. There was ample evidence from the spring, in Sweden and elsewhere, of what could be expected in the autumn and winter if the policy was not changed and these are the consequences.”

"In mid-December, it was revealed that Sweden had not only failed to defeat the virus through its herd-immunity strategy – a strategy that divided leaders around the world – but that its healthcare system was being crippled by a surge in patient numbers.

According to Bloomberg, Sweden is currently facing a shortage of healthcare workers and being forced to consider outside help from its neighbours in Finland. Sineva Ribeiro, the chairwoman of the Swedish Association of Health Professionals, said the situation is “terrible”.

And Stockholm County Mayor Irene Svenonius called it “extremely tense”.
“There’s fatigue. You can’t ignore that, so it’s extremely important to get more people,” she said.

Finland offered to free up space in its hospitals for ICU patients from Sweden but there was no deal struck immediately. Sweden already has one of the highest death rates in Europe. Of its 10 million people, around 8300 had died from COVID-19 by late December."

From a Public Health Perspective:

I'm not going to debate with the thread's Dr. Googles, but I will keep it professional and simple. One of the greatest errors the failing countries made was to allow the virus to get a foot hold. The countries that started earliest and most agressively did the best, and now have performed quite nicely, and don't need the severe interventions that the losers who allowed the virus to become community based and uncontrollable.

Sweden - like the US - is a perfect example of what not to do.

Again - there is no such thing as a "sustainable Nordic response" in my professional world. Sweden is indeed an outlier whose performance should NOT be sustained, and is in deep trouble. Swedish data, like Mexico's, is hard to get and unreliable; yet it is still very, very bad.

CJ
Public Health, 30 years