Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[UFO]

All not going so well in Vaccine World....

[laird]

New figures today suggest that 1 in 10 in the UK have had the virus , I'm hoping that the combination of lockdown and vaccine starts showing improvement in these figures soon

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by UFO

Very true and a very valid point as we will never know what the mortality and economic consequences would be if those that locked down did not - Its a highly speculative area, but its hard to see on an economic front with the amount of $ being printed and thrown around that it would come anywhere near economically speaking and this then leads to what the WFP said in regard to starvation, that for children under 5 it could go up from 10 million a year to 30 million per year - That's a 20 million increase in mortality and more to the point it's not over 80's like covid, but under 5's! This is directly linked to the massive reduction in foreign aid and investment as the Western Nations have locked down and need to print money to bail out there own citizens, reducing the $ for aid and investment.

these are fiat currencies , inflation is in the toilet , just print the stuff. This is not the time to worry about money supply, If we had double digit inflation , I would not be saying that , but clearly we don't

The economic arguments are overblown , I was listening to a respected economist this morning say that the damage is quite slight outside one or two specific sectors and that there is a huge pent up demand and savings to back it, ensuring a huge rebound effect. In most countries ordinary workers on Covid support payments are better off then were they in a job as many were part time or Gig workers and had quite poor annualised pay.

He finished his comments , public health is what matters, the economy is ( will be ) fine

[Wotname]

At the risk of turning this into a 'Downunder' thread and with apologies to DH (as the OP), I make some general Aussie comments - for readers who are un-interested, please skip ahead .

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Hi Wottie
Thanks for your well thought out reply and corrections.
Yes, these briefings certainly occurred and were a mammoth effort. They informed people what was occurring regarding the lockdowns and why they needed to be continued to stop community spread etc. And the actions were highly successful in doing so. I admit I had not thought this was going to be possible in Victoria given how widespread the virus was in the community and particularly in so many care homes in July of last year.

^^Me too

What the briefings failed to do was to release any information regarding what their policy of stopping community spread had been based on. This was repeatedly requested and ignored.

I am skeptical that there was any science at all driving the lockdowns. In the absence of any information I can only conclude the immediate saving of lives was the only focus (and a very popular notion) rather than thinking about the long term problems doing this. Simply altering policy to copy other states is not a sound reason in my opinion.

^^ My opinion - I think the only science used was that which had been gleaned from previous pandemics. Interesting side note, the last outbreak of bubonic plague in Australia was in Sydney in the 1920s. Plus there was the modelling by health departments of potential 'generic' infectious / contagious diseases last updated (AFAIK) about 10 years ago - sorry but I don't have a citation. I would not criticise anyone too heavily for not having any hard science on a novel virus. Almost by definition, data is precluded. I also wouldn't go as far to suggest some were simply copying what others did. The PM (to his credit IMO) did establish the 'National Cabinet' consisting of all state premiers and state health officials. Initially this met weekly IIRC. This was a first for Oz and is possibly reason behind many of the similarities of the states' responses. An uncharitable view could be the PM wanted to be able to shift the blame around if things went Deep South.



Exit strategies should have been in place for a whole host of possible outcomes before any restrictions were put in place at all. Again no information was released regarding these.

^^ Probably because they didn't have an exit strategy...

I am sure you are correct in saying there was never any long term view but again I wouldn't overly criticise this aspect. To my mind, it must have seemed like a potential ember attack on a catastrophic bushfire day. Suppress the flames today before looking at next weeks weather forecast to see if full blown response is really necessary. My view is the 'go hard, go now' is a better approach than delaying while everyone gets their ducks in a row. It seems to me to be easier to ease back on the brake once it is applied rather than letting things snowball. Adelaide was a good example a month or two back. A possible community outbreak and things slammed shut overnight, once the source was correctly located, everything opened within a week (again IIRC).

I was also not at all impressed with the “Yes Minister” type fiasco when everyone one in the Victorian government including Dan Andrews the premier and Jenny Mikakos the health minister at the time, all conveniently “forgot” who was responsible for the use of private security guards being used to guard quarantine hotels, resulting in the four month lockdown of 5 million people and 700+ deaths.
The lies did not elicit trust.

^^ Me too. I can not fathom out how they got away with that clusterfk. Beggars belief. But then, most political behaviour (on both sides of the fence) leaves me shaking my head. Nevertheless this example was gobsmackingly shameful.


Maybe I am wrong and decisions regarding management of the pandemic were made for sound reasons that have not been revealed, but I do think this is unlikely.




I did not realise this until the pandemic. It was a shock. I am not very savvy politically.




It was never expected that any vaccines would be 90-95% effective in preventing symptoms. The results have been astonishing for the Pfizer version, even if this is only known to occur during the short time of one week after the second dose, as is the case. However, the Oxford-AstraZeneca has only been found to be effective for 62% of people in this regard. 90% was found only for a small group of subjects who were accidentally (according to the media) given a half dose first.

How was it ever envisaged that a vaccine would “save the day” without allowing a substantial percentage of the population to become infected and develop some natural immunity, even if partial? Those under 18 make up about a quarter of Australia’s population and who would give children a vaccine that was not being tested in their age group, particularly given almost none of them have any serious symptoms when infected? They are not the ones at risk. Under these circumstances why expose children to a vaccine using relatively new technology? As far as I am aware an adenoviral carrier containing genetic material of the virus has never been previously approved for human use (I found one used to vaccinate against rabies in animals). Anyone know of any?

There seems to be quite a number of people who are in fear of genetically modified food (GMO’s). I have just looked up the possible numbers who consider it dangerous and it may be as high as 30%. How is the government planning to convince this group to have themselves injected with genetic material to alter what protein our bodies produce, even if this is apparently only temporary? This is the mode of action of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine. Is the government planning not to inform people about this? If not, this is deceitful.

If children are excluded, even if you could manage to convince a large percentage of people at minuscule risk of severe disease to be vaccinated, the numbers don’t compute. The vaccine that will currently be used predominantly is only known to be 62% effective in eliminating symptoms and it is not known at all yet how effective it is in reducing transmission. It could be a lot less.

^^ Me too... You got to remember the PM is first and foremost a marketing man. If the current ad isn't selling the product, spin up a new ad. No need to have facts, just write a new lie story.

I think the premiers will turn the blame on the federal government when it becomes clear a vaccine will not stop all COVID-19 infections. No responsibility will be taken for not considering what would happen if this was the case.

^^ My guess is there will be zero (or almost zero) community transmission in Australia for 2021. The vast majority of the new case numbers found in say worldometers are quarantine cases. I expect it stay this way for 2021. The international border will remain tightly controlled (note - not closed). My cloudy crystal ball says there will only be an easing of the number of people allowed to enter Australia in moderate numbers once the various vaccines prove effective elsewhere in the world - assuming they do prove effective. If not, my crystal ball goes dark.


Precisely! Allowing any spread would also be political suicide for all the premiers currently in control during declared states of emergency. So how do they get Australia back to functioning normally?


^^ Dunno - hurry up and wait????? I have no idea what the new normal will be except to say I expect it will be nothing like to old normal.
——————-
By the way, this has been a great discussion. So many diverse views have been expressed. It is a fascinating and thought provoking topic. I have gained lots. Thanks everyone.

OK, back to the Northern Europe programming.

[goboatingnow]

if you don't believe lockdowns are effective , well Irelands experience says different ( 5km unnecessary travel limit , schools closed , work from home, non essential retail closed , hospitality closed )

we might not like them but they work , The Sep spike was also a result of a partial relaxation plus return of schools and a post summer effect

The spike was a direct result of re-opening hospitality for the three week Christmas period. The public mood is such that pubs and hotels won't be opening till 70% of the pop is vaccinated , probably September at the earliest . The Gov got its ear chewed off by the public after the Christmas relexation , ( plus the UK strain ) they won't make that mistake again. This lockdown is hard to enforce as the public are fed-up so price have now been given minor powers to issue fines (€100) for transgressing the 5km limit , ( mainly its young male adults in cars )

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by UFO

All not going so well in Vaccine World....

I have the opposite view. I think it is going extremely well so far. The vaccines are being rolled out on a mass scale. Over 42 million doses worldwide so far in less than a month. Reported side effects with these vaccines are to be expected. I am surprised no one has died of an anaphylactic reaction yet. This will occur at some stage and should not be overblown.

The rollout of this vaccine illustrates how black and white people want medical issues to be. Unfortunately, this is not the case. This is an important point so I will repeat what I said earlier. Nothing is “black and white” medically. Every procedure, every therapeutic drug, every vaccine has associated risks. Some are more major than others. Some can be life threatening. They also save or at least improve the quality of lives for millions of people.

Risk versus benefit needs to be balanced.

It is extremely important to recognise this. It is very misleading to state something is “safe” and also very wrong to drum up fear when side effects crop up. I think the media will pounce on every problem reported. Please view these in perspective.

The adverse reactions (some of which may not crop up for years) is the main reason I think people at negligible risk of serious illness who are not in close contact with others who are vulnerable and unvaccinated should carefully think about what to do. I would also think twice about vaccinating children against this particular virus even when trials start to include them, particularly given it may adversely affect how their immune system develops.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

I have the opposite view. I think it is going extremely well so far. The vaccines are being rolled out on a mass scale. Over 42 million doses worldwide so far in less than a month. Reported side effects with these vaccines are to be expected. I am surprised no one has died of an anaphylactic reaction yet. This will occur at some stage and should not be overblown.

The rollout of this vaccine illustrates how black and white people want medical issues to be. Unfortunately, this is not the case. This is an important point so I will repeat what I said earlier. Nothing is “black and white” medically. Every procedure, every therapeutic drug, every vaccine has associated risks. Some are more major than others. Some can be life threatening. They also save or at least improve the quality of lives for millions of people.

Risk versus benefit needs to be balanced.

It is extremely important to recognise this. It is very misleading to state something is “safe” and also very wrong to drum up fear when side effects crop up. I think the media will pounce on every problem reported. Please view these in perspective.

The adverse reactions (some of which may not crop up for years) is the main reason I think people at negligible risk of serious illness who are not in close contact with others who are vulnerable and unvaccinated should carefully think about what to do. I would also think twice about vaccinating children against this particular virus even when trials start to include them, particularly given it may adversely affect how their immune system develops.

I agree, hiccups are to be expected on a project of this scale. Interesting field reports say anti-vax sentiments fade when people are actually asked if they want the vaccine . Seemingly these anti-vax sentiments don't actually survive an encounter with reality

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

I have the opposite view. I think it is going extremely well so far.

The adverse reactions (some of which may not crop up for years) is the main reason I think people at negligible risk of serious illness who are not in close contact with others who are vulnerable and unvaccinated should carefully think about what to do. I would also think twice about vaccinating children against this particular virus even when trials start to include them, particularly given it may adversely affect how their immune system develops.

Hmmm.. Pulling of a vaccine means there is serious issues, so not sure of your definition of extremely well.


I fully agree that unless you are at a very high risk, best to wait for the trial of the vaccine to be complete before taking

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by UFO

Hmmm.. Pulling of a vaccine means there is serious issues, so not sure of your definition of extremely well.


I fully agree that unless you are at a very high risk, best to wait for the trial of the vaccine to be complete before taking

evidence is people are beating a path to get the vaccine , so thats not happening

Hospitals here had 16 -20 doses left over , so they vaccinated some family members of staff , the outcry has gov minsters apologising this morning for people " who jumped the queue". People want this vaccine no matter what

its not a vaccine that prevents Covid , its a vaccine that offers a return to your previous life, that seems to be the feeling around here

[UFO]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

its not a vaccine that prevents Covid , its a vaccine that offers a return to your previous life, that seems to be the feeling around here

Well that is really sad.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by UFO

Well that is really sad.

perhaps , but people desperately want this pandemic to end and life return to some semblance of before. The vaccine is now seen as the "only" way out of this and hence its seen as a way to end this pandemic, rather then simply prevent Covid per se.

( people talk of being euphoric after receiving it etc )

its what it promises rather then what it does, seems to be the reaction

anyway the nation is bearing its arms ( not the self loading type) ( nose ?) and queuing up, to date the refusal level is zero or very close to zero ( no voluntary refusals have made the news anyway )

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by UFO

Hmmm.. Pulling of a vaccine means there is serious issues, so not sure of your definition of extremely well.


I fully agree that unless you are at a very high risk, best to wait for the trial of the vaccine to be complete before taking

Hi UFO
It was “paused” not “pulled”. Big difference . It was only one specific batch of vaccine at one community vaccination clinic and sensibly it is being investigated.

I would like to see trials completed before we start vaccinating healthy young people at low risk. The Australian PM currently won’t confirm that it won’t be made mandatory and I find that troubling.

In response to this question from a journalist on the 7th January:
“You mentioned a discussion with the states about when and how vaccines could be required by uniform public health orders. Could you please clarify who that would apply to? Would that be aged care workers, returning Australians? And how does that square with repeated assurances that vaccines will be voluntary?”

The prime minister responded:
“All I've said today is that that is a discussion that needs to be had. And so we will have that discussion.”

https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-co...ament-house-12

[laird]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

I have the opposite view. I think it is going extremely well so far. The vaccines are being rolled out on a mass scale. Over 42 million doses worldwide so far in less than a month. Reported side effects with these vaccines are to be expected. I am surprised no one has died of an anaphylactic reaction yet. This will occur at some stage and should not be overblown.

The rollout of this vaccine illustrates how black and white people want medical issues to be. Unfortunately, this is not the case. This is an important point so I will repeat what I said earlier. Nothing is “black and white” medically. Every procedure, every therapeutic drug, every vaccine has associated risks. Some are more major than others. Some can be life threatening. They also save or at least improve the quality of lives for millions of people.

Risk versus benefit needs to be balanced.

It is extremely important to recognise this. It is very misleading to state something is “safe” and also very wrong to drum up fear when side effects crop up. I think the media will pounce on every problem reported. Please view these in perspective.

The adverse reactions (some of which may not crop up for years) is the main reason I think people at negligible risk of serious illness who are not in close contact with others who are vulnerable and unvaccinated should carefully think about what to do. I would also think twice about vaccinating children against this particular virus even when trials start to include them, particularly given it may adversely affect how their immune system develops.

I agree with swl , I think that the vacine program is being rolled out very well , there are hold ups in production ,possibly the glass vials that contain the vaccine are one of the issues .
There are still medical centers that have not come on line here in the UK ,its all still being ramped up ,at present they are vaccinated at 160 people every minute , this number will increase once the logistics have been worked out ,imho it's a production issue , I'm.aware that at some point the military will be involved ,they were assisting last march april
One of my grouches is that there are a lot of persons below the age of 50 who seem to think that this virus will not hurt them and as a result are less inclined to follow the rules
I've seen this virus at first hand ,I've seen one 70 year old shrug it off after a week or so , I've seen the relatives in tears .as they have just lost a loved one ,as a result I'm very careful with regard to this virus and I'm not a risk adverse individual , ex commercial diver and I ride a very fast motorcycle for fun

Take this virus seriously, those of you who complain about lockdown restrictions are fortunate enough to be in a position to complain ,in the UK ,the deaths are at 90k,

[GordMay]

Norway policy on Pfizer vaccine unchanged after alarm over deaths
Several elderly and (highly) frail people who received the vaccine have died, but official says ‘not a given’ that there is any connection.
As of January 14, 23 reports of deaths suspected to be associated with COVID-19 vaccines had been submitted to the Norwegian health registry.
“It is important to remember that about 45 people die every day in nursing homes in Norway, so it is not a given that this represents any excess mortality or that there is a causal connection,”
“It’s not impossible that some of those who have gotten the vaccine are so frail that maybe you should have reconsidered and not given them the vaccine, because they are so sick that they might have become worse from the normal side effects as the body reacts and builds up immunity.”

Norway’s death toll from the pandemic currently stands at 521 people, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
More than 48,000 people have been vaccinated in Norway so far.

Norway has had one of the lowest infection rates in Europe during the pandemic, imposing tighter restrictions earlier [?] than many other countries.

The 14-day cumulative number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants was at 157.95 in the week ending January 10, the fifth-lowest in Europe behind Iceland, Greece, Bulgaria and Finland, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

More ➥ https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...-use-unchanged


[?] Did Norway impose tighter restrictions earlier than many other countries?

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Hi UFO
It was “paused” not “pulled”. Big difference . It was only one specific batch of vaccine at one community vaccination clinic and sensibly it is being investigated.

I would like to see trials completed before we start vaccinating healthy young people at low risk. The Australian PM currently won’t confirm that it won’t be made mandatory and I find that troubling.

In response to this question from a journalist on the 7th January:
“You mentioned a discussion with the states about when and how vaccines could be required by uniform public health orders. Could you please clarify who that would apply to? Would that be aged care workers, returning Australians? And how does that square with repeated assurances that vaccines will be voluntary?”

The prime minister responded:
“All I've said today is that that is a discussion that needs to be had. And so we will have that discussion.”

https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-co...ament-house-12

Well fortunately for me I am in a position where I can walk away from this country if they start enforcing such draconian laws. It is though to be expected from one of the most police state countries in the world.