Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Imagine if omicron, with its tremendous contagiousness, had been considerably more virulent.

We were lucky that it did not also induce harsher outcomes and that there was considerable immune response from vaccines / boosters and prior Covid so as to mitigate its impacts.

Could have been much worse, and we just don't know what a new variant might bring.

Hopefully, nothing more virulent.

Had it been more virulent , the outcome would be simple , zillions would die

Playing hypothetical games is fine and dandy but useless. You cant predict what might happen next. You simply can’t live life prepared for worse case sensations.

[Zippee]

It's no game, it is happening now and we just experienced a more serious Delta, and possibly more serious Omicron-2. The scientific community recognizes that Covid is still mutating regularly and is now a part of our lives (endemic).

This is hardly hypothetical, rather the reverse. As a world, it is essential that we unite, and to be able to quickly identify and isolate dangerous outbreaks (think Ebola) wherever they may occur in the world. There is nothing special about what China has done that could not be done anywhere.

This is a world problem and engenders a world solution. Fast response teams based on speed and the full capability to act quickly - anywhere - with unified protocols, and the ability to test, identify, and quarantine in areas experiencing an outbreak or discovery. Perfectly doable. Covid is a test of world unity and cooperation among governments for mutual support and success.

This was done with Ebola. We must remember that a failure anywhere is a failure everywhere. In sum, this is not a hypothetical, and we must live our life as it is. This is the new normal...

...in sum we MUST prepare for the reality of now predictable serious pandemics. The Rubicon has been crossed. Pretending otherwise is not a solution.

[boatman61]

Ebola while highly infectious is not highly contagious so easily contained unlike Covid which was the opposite.
So ease off on Project Fear.

[Zippee]

Completely off topic, but the common measure of viral transmission is the "R0" rating, or the Reproduction Number - in other words, to how many people will the infection be passed. For example and R of 1 means that one person will infect just one more and the virus will continue to spread. It is only when the R number is less than one is the virus being eliminated.

From the New England Journal of Medicine:

"According to a study published by the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) in August 2016, "the basic reproduction number, R0, which holds at the start of an epidemic and before intervention," was estimated to be in the range of 1.71 to 2.02 in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. The range was reported to be similar to estimates from previous, smaller outbreaks of Ebola in central Africa (Sudan and Zaire species, 1.3 to 4.7)."

Simply put, until the world strike teams intervened, each victim was spreading Ebola to roughly 2 to 4 other people. Without emergency intervention, exponential growth would have occured.

With Ebola it was not enough simply to mask, it was essential to protect the entire body of the medical caregiver. These "space suits" required professional decontamination, or had to be disposable. Compared to Covid, Ebola was far more frightening, and the death rate was simply horrible.

In any case, the real point here is that viruses can and must be better controlled. Scientists have long agreed that it's not whether another Covid type pandemic will occur - it's when. The incursion of mankind into once wild areas has greatly increased man/animal contact and the high likelihood of animal - man - animal, zoonotic transfers and re-transfers of mutating viruses. China, Australia, NZ and a few others proved that Covid could be as well contained as Ebola.

This is our world as it now is - the new normal - we will either live with it, or die from it. Covid was a test and still is. Have we learned our lesson? Or will we pretend it's over?

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Zippee

It's no game, it is happening now and we just experienced a more serious Delta, and possibly more serious Omicron-2. The scientific community recognizes that Covid is still mutating regularly and is now a part of our lives (endemic).

This is hardly hypothetical, rather the reverse. As a world, it is essential that we unite, and to be able to quickly identify and isolate dangerous outbreaks (think Ebola) wherever they may occur in the world. There is nothing special about what China has done that could not be done anywhere.

This is a world problem and engenders a world solution. Fast response teams based on speed and the full capability to act quickly - anywhere - with unified protocols, and the ability to test, identify, and quarantine in areas experiencing an outbreak or discovery. Perfectly doable. Covid is a test of world unity and cooperation among governments for mutual support and success.

This was done with Ebola. We must remember that a failure anywhere is a failure everywhere. In sum, this is not a hypothetical, and we must live our life as it is. This is the new normal...

...in sum we MUST prepare for the reality of now predictable serious pandemics. The Rubicon has been crossed. Pretending otherwise is not a solution.

Yes but that response can’t involve isolating whole communities or countries. Science is the way ,not medieval approaches.

There is no “ new “ normal. There is just “normal”. New normal is a clever way of introducing restrictions.

No pandemic will be fought this way again. It’s was largely a failure , containment is not an option in a globalised world.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Ebola while highly infectious is not highly contagious so easily contained unlike Covid which was the opposite.

So ease off on Project Fear.

100% right

[goboatingnow]

Using Ebola is not a good comparison. A virulent virus by definition ends up killing its host that inherently limits its replication and spread.

A high transmissible highly virulent virus is almost impossible as it can’t survive.

[Van Der Beek]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Yes but that response can’t involve isolating whole communities or countries. Science is the way ,not medieval approaches.

There is no “ new “ normal. There is just “normal”. New normal is a clever way of introducing restrictions.

No pandemic will be fought this way again. It’s was largely a failure , containment is not an option in a globalised world.

Quoted for truth.


To expand on the issue.
People in fear become authoritarian. Therefore willing to support (even cry out) for authoritarian measures, the more fear they have, the stronger the support.

We've all been witnessing this happening for the past two+ years, and this is not up for debate.

In closing.
Enough with the fear porn, enough of promoting it. Get a grip

[Anders]

Originally Posted by Buster Brown

I guess John Hopkins seems to disagree with your denial of immunity. I’ll go with them.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/heal...u-need-to-know

Do they?
From the link you provided:

"Another study published on Nov. 5, 2021, by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) looked at adults hospitalized for COVID-like sickness between January and September 2021. This study found that the chances of these adults testing positive for COVID-19 were 5.49 times higher in unvaccinated people who had COVID-19 in the past than they were for those who had been vaccinated for COVID and had not had an infection before."

[AKA-None]

My opinion backed by no reality is that with all of the people and stuff that moves around the world there is virtually no solution to stopping a high kill rate disease.
By the time it is recognized as serious it will have already spread.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by AKA-None

My opinion backed by no reality is that with all of the people and stuff that moves around the world there is virtually no solution to stopping a high kill rate disease.
By the time it is recognized as serious it will have already spread.

Right now we have other real fears to worry about. Let’s leave the hypothetical fears for the movie makers and zombie apocalypse script writers.

[Zippee]

It seems that the usual suspects are in unison that concerns about Covid, et al, are useless, unjustified and baseless. After so much time, their positions are clear, unchanging, border on conspiratorial contrarianism and in general do not add to our real, scientific and valid discussion about the scientific realities the majority of rational posters rightfully discuss.

It seems to me that these few seek only to contradict and cause chaos. My suggestion is either to block them, or in the alternative to choose to not engage with them at all. Let them speak to themselves.

There is far too much at stake, our scientific concerns are absolutely relevant and worthy of discussion to engage with those who refuse to be convinced, and who seemingly post solely to contradict, or even to insult.

Let us all ignore them, and let them post as they may, without any need for reply or to give them the attention they beg for.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Zippee

It seems that the usual suspects are in unison that concerns about Covid, et al, are useless, unjustified and baseless. After so much time, their positions are clear, unchanging, border on conspiratorial contrarianism and in general do not add to our real, scientific and valid discussion about the scientific realities the majority of rational posters rightfully discuss.

It seems to me that these few seek only to contradict and cause chaos. My suggestion is either to block them, or in the alternative to choose to not engage with them at all. Let them speak to themselves.

There is far too much at stake, our scientific concerns are absolutely relevant and worthy of discussion to engage with those who refuse to be convinced, and who seemingly post solely to contradict, or even to insult.

Let us all ignore them, and let them post as they may, without any need for reply or to give them the attention they beg for.

Zippee, it is certainly a good idea to quietly put any posters who annoy you on “ignore” rather than interacting with them in an agressive way, but this is a discussion board and anyone is free to politely voice their opinions as long as they conform with the rules.

You do not have the monopoly on “truth”, and as for promoting “chaos” this is clearly a case of the pot calling the kettle black.

SWL
(Written as a member, not moderator)

[Montanan]

Europe’s travel rules are dropping as fast as its Covid cases

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/new...cid=uxbndlbing

On Feb. 22, the Council of the European Union recommended member nations open more broadly to travelers from outside of the EU as well — with the caveat that they be vaccinated or have recently recovered. The recommendation did not include a provision to allow outsiders in with only negative Covid test results, however.

This makes sense for countries, especially those with strained hospital systems, because unvaccinated people are more at risk of severe disease, said Cyrille Cohen, head of the immunotherapy laboratory at Israel's Bar-Ilan University.

"Vaccines are still very efficient at preventing severe disease by a factor of 10 times more," he said. Most countries require that travelers be vaccinated because "they're not going to put a strain on the country," agreed Dale Fisher, group chief of medicine at Singapore's National University Health System. Pre-travel testing is different, he said, calling it both inconvenient and unsustainable. "You can't do this forever; [tests] will have to go one day," he said. "I think travel will be a lot better when people know they just have to be vaccinated — it's simple as that."

[Van Der Beek]

@Zippee
The truth of the matter is you don't want a discussion, what you want is an echo-chamber, that's what passes for valid discussion to you. This has been a recurring theme for the past two+ years. 'Trust science" you say, that's not how science works, and at this point I trust the silenced scientists and doctors over their colleges, who, for whatever reason, for the past two+ years have taken the very same approach to "science" as you to discussion.


Finally.
I have a suggestion for you.

Originally Posted by Zippee

Let us all ignore them, and let them post as they may, without any need for reply or to give them the attention they beg for.

How about you put yourself on ignore?