Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Funny just the opposite was being said

“
Early analysis of UK Omicron and Delta cases showed the vaccines were less effective at stopping the new variant”

www.bbc.com/news/health-59615005.amp

Maybe you should read it again... suggest you unload your Pfizer shares asap...

[Montanan]

In what they describe as the most comprehensive analysis to date of the virus’s distribution and persistence in the body and brain, scientists at the U.S. National Institutes of Health said they found the pathogen is capable of replicating in human cells well beyond the respiratory tract.

https://assets.researchsquare.com/fi...f?c=1640020576

The results point to delayed viral clearance as a potential contributor to the persistent symptoms wracking so-called long Covid sufferers. Understanding the mechanisms by which the virus persists, along with the body’s response to any viral reservoir, promises to help improve care for those afflicted, the authors said.

[Zippee]

It's fair to say our focus has often been on hospitalizations and deaths and that is surely important. It doesn't help that the media and governmental spokesperson tend also to focus on these. It surely is one way to judge the progress or lack of it. But often it is the lasting aftermath that ultimately is much more likely to affect us and in way, just as seriously.

We've touched on this before, but I thought we should start to learn more about serious lasting and even permanent damages that probably affect at least a third of all who contract any form of the Covid.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/heal...cts-of-covid19

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-...s/art-20490351

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8056514/

These are all reliable sources worth a read. The last is one of a number of studies that are being published as the data finally rolls in. In my own life I know five people who have contracted Covid (two of whom had been vaccinated).

Of the five, two have serious lasting symptoms. One experiences extreme shortness of breath and fatigue and this a year later. The other is about 4 months post infection, but who still can't work a full day with extreme daily fatigue, muscle pain, and gastric issues that persist.

It reminds me of the many US soldiers, post Vietnam and also post the Middle East - of which many returned with PTSD and other psycho and somatic issues that have led to their inability to live normal lives. Not least this includes drug and alcohol abuse, suicide, anxiety, depression, insomnia and damaged relationships. At our peril, we also ignore the lasting economic damages and many other consequences.

In the end, as bad as overloaded hospitals and death are, these do end. The long haul effects may last for a lifetime.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Montanan

In what they describe as the most comprehensive analysis to date of the virus’s distribution and persistence in the body and brain, scientists at the U.S. National Institutes of Health said they found the pathogen is capable of replicating in human cells well beyond the respiratory tract.

https://assets.researchsquare.com/fi...f?c=1640020576

The results point to delayed viral clearance as a potential contributor to the persistent symptoms wracking so-called long Covid sufferers. Understanding the mechanisms by which the virus persists, along with the body’s response to any viral reservoir, promises to help improve care for those afflicted, the authors said.

So-called "Long Covid" is undisputedly real and well-documented at this point. Zippee posted some credible scientific sources upthread which indicated it has been impacting up to 1/3 of all cases, at least those with significant enough symptoms to require medical intervention and therefore be recorded. This study purports to explain why this is so and is worthwhile.

To avoid misleading anyone, however, it should also be posted that the study was based on the results of 44 autopsies of people who died from Covid-19 in "the first year of the pandemic in the United States" (lines 260-62), specifically "between April 26, 2020 and March 2, 2021" (123-24). IOW, long before the onset of the Omicron variant. What's also important, perspective-wise, is that "95.5% of patients had at least one comorbidity" (129), the average age was 59.2 years (128), and 81.8% required ventilation (133).

This is an important study explaining the causes of Long Covid in mostly older people with co-morbidities who became seriously ill, but makes no effort to predict what is going on now with the vast majority of mild Omicron infections, or what the future may hold. I haven't yet read Zippee's sources in the post which follows, so perhaps they are based on more up-to-date data.

[Montanan]

In a technical briefing released Friday, the UK Health Security Agency announced that the Oxford/AstraZeneca, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines all protect against omicron less than they did against delta and that protection from boosters wanes in time. Booster effectiveness generally decreased from 60% to 70% protection at two to four weeks after the shot, down to 35% to 45% at 10 weeks, depending on the combination of vaccines administered.

The UK report also adds weight to the hope that omicron infections are less severe than with the delta variant, noting that the risk of hospitalization from omicron is about three-fifths of that from delta.

https://assets.publishing.service.go...riefing-33.pdf

The graph below is a log scale, and reveals the incredibly fast ramp up of omicron cases compared to prior variants. Note the Green line.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Maybe you should read it again... suggest you unload your Pfizer shares asap.

So, which is a greater drop "dramatic", or "significant"?

Originally Posted by BBC

... The analysis is based on limited data, but showed a dramatic drop in effectiveness for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine and a significant drop off for two doses of Pfizer.

The 75% protection against Covid symptoms after a booster is not as high as against previous variants.

There was not enough data to analyse the Moderna or Janssen vaccines, but there is no reason to think they would have different results.

However, the UK Health Security Agency said vaccines were still likely to offer good protection against severe Covid that needed hospital treatment...

Here ➥ https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59615005.amp

Better yet, one could look to a primary source, such as:
“SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England: Technical briefing 31" ~ UK Health Security Agency [UKHSA]
Here ➥ https://assets.publishing.service.go...ember-2021.pdf

Originally Posted by UKHSA

... Across 5 preliminary live virus studies (3 international
and 2 UK), there was a 20- to 40-fold reduction in neutralising activity by
Pfizer 2-dose vaccinee sera for Omicron compared to early pandemic viruses.
There was at least 10 fold loss of activity when compared to Delta; in both UK studies this was over 20 fold. A greater reduction in activity was seen for AZ 2-dose sera, and for a high proportion of such sera, neutralising activity fell below the limit of quantification in the assay. An mRNA booster dose resulted in an increase in neutralising activity irrespective of primary vaccination type, including an increase in the proportion of samples that were above the limit of quantification. This is true regardless of which vaccine was used for the primary course...

[Dockhead]

A thoughtful and touching essay by an ICU doctor, in the NYT today:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/27/o...cron-hope.html

"An I.C.U. Doctor’s Message of Hope Amid Omicron"


This is behind a paywall, but you get 10 free articles a month (from each of your devices) if you simply register.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Zippee

It's fair to say our focus has often been on hospitalizations and deaths and that is surely important. It doesn't help that the media and governmental spokesperson tend also to focus on these. It surely is one way to judge the progress or lack of it. But often it is the lasting aftermath that ultimately is much more likely to affect us and in way, just as seriously.

We've touched on this before, but I thought we should start to learn more about serious lasting and even permanent damages that probably affect at least a third of all who contract any form of the Covid.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/heal...cts-of-covid19

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-...s/art-20490351

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8056514/

These are all reliable sources worth a read. The last is one of a number of studies that are being published as the data finally rolls in. In my own life I know five people who have contracted Covid (two of whom had been vaccinated).

Of the five, two have serious lasting symptoms. One experiences extreme shortness of breath and fatigue and this a year later. The other is about 4 months post infection, but who still can't work a full day with extreme daily fatigue, muscle pain, and gastric issues that persist.

It reminds me of the many US soldiers, post Vietnam and also post the Middle East - of which many returned with PTSD and other psycho and somatic issues that have led to their inability to live normal lives. Not least this includes drug and alcohol abuse, suicide, anxiety, depression, insomnia and damaged relationships. At our peril, we also ignore the lasting economic damages and many other consequences.

In the end, as bad as overloaded hospitals and death are, these do end. The long haul effects may last for a lifetime.

They may, but the study from 44 autopsies from the pandemic's first year posted above measured the lasting physiological effects in months, not years. Psychological issues can persist, of course. Could have missed it, but I didn't find support in any of the cited studies for your comment that "serious lasting and even permanent damages that probably affect at least a third of all who contract any form of the Covid." Perhaps "any" form prior to Omicron, but we don't yet know. Your last study was published in April 2021. Have there been recent updates?

Although the Delta variant still persists in many countries, it appears Omicron is supplanting it as many predicted. It is marked by much higher transmissibility, the ability to evade vaccination, but milder (if any) symptoms for most people. The science also seems to be telling us that the world's entire population may likely be exposed if not infected with Omicron. This doesn't necessarily mean we should simply give up on protecting ourselves and others by trying to slow the spread, but it does probably mean that a shift in focus to hospitalizations and deaths is appropriate. Fortunately the vaccines remain effective at preventing serious illness, and there are now new and promising treatment options. So getting vaccinated/boosted looks like it remains the single most effective option for most people to avoid serious illness.

As you pointed out when Omicron first came on the scene, it's almost like a new virus. At least from what we know thus far. If the science is telling us we will be unable to contain its spread but most people will not become seriously ill, then it only makes sense to try and prevent the overburdening of hospitals by focusing on those who are vulnerable to severe illness and death. The emphasis on trying to limit the number of infections to reduce the virus' circulation may prove to be no longer applicable.

[Zippee]

"Could have missed it, but I didn't find support in any of the cited studies for your comment that "serious lasting and even permanent damages that probably affect at least a third of all who contract any form of the Covid." Perhaps "any" form prior to Omicron, but we don't yet know. Your last study was published in April 2021. Have there been recent updates?"

I can't take too much time with this today, but the Mayo Clinic piece was in October 2021 and the John Hopkin's piece was in December, 2021. An excerpt: "If the coronavirus infection caused kidney damage, this can raise the risk of long-term kidney disease and the need for dialysis... A bad case of COVID-19 can produce scarring and other permanent problems in the lungs...". The April study was cited in multiple later papers, as recently as November 2021 (there's a link there).

Please also note that as an example I cited a good friend - in prior good health - whose post Covid lungs are now permanently scarred (called "ground glass" x-ray) and can no longer run his sailboat. This after two years. If you'll re-read these again, you'll note that some of the damage is indeed permanent. Other damage has lasted up to two years, and of course time will tell, but that too doesn't look good.



"Although the Delta variant still persists in many countries, it appears Omicron is supplanting it as many predicted. It is marked by much higher transmissibility, the ability to evade vaccination, but milder (if any) symptoms for most people. ... So getting vaccinated/boosted looks like it remains the single most effective option for most people to avoid serious illness."

All of these reports, and all we have all learned by now makes clear that it's WAY too early to predict Omicron's severity - except for transmissability. All of the credible sources have so noted, and observed that there are important differences in Omicron penetration, demographics, percentage of vaccination, prior Covid exposure and the like.

Yes, the early numbers are hopeful. The US will be the acid test of "mildness" as the vaccination percentage here is low. In this thread it's clear that we here mostly agree on the value of vaccination and boosters.



"If the science is telling us we will be unable to contain its spread but most people will not become seriously ill, then it only makes sense to try and prevent the overburdening of hospitals by focusing on those who are vulnerable to severe illness and death."

We both agree, or should, that that conclusion may be premature based on the above. There is no broad evidence-based agreement quite yet. Things are surely hopeful; however, the next 2-4 weeks should better establish the trajectory and allow such a conclusion. Hope that helps.

It's definitely hard, but we can only be patient...

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Zippee

"Could have missed it, but I didn't find support in any of the cited studies for your comment that "serious lasting and even permanent damages that probably affect at least a third of all who contract any form of the Covid." Perhaps "any" form prior to Omicron, but we don't yet know. Your last study was published in April 2021. Have there been recent updates?"

I can't take too much time with this today, but the Mayo Clinic piece was in October 2021 and the John Hopkin's piece was in December, 2021. An excerpt: "If the coronavirus infection caused kidney damage, this can raise the risk of long-term kidney disease and the need for dialysis... A bad case of COVID-19 can produce scarring and other permanent problems in the lungs...". The April study was cited in multiple later papers, as recently as November 2021 (there's a link there).

Please also note that as an example I cited a good friend - in prior good health - whose post Covid lungs are now permanently scarred (called "ground glass" x-ray) and can no longer run his sailboat. This after two years. If you'll re-read these again, you'll note that some of the damage is indeed permanent. Other damage has lasted up to two years, and of course time will tell, but that too doesn't look good.



"Although the Delta variant still persists in many countries, it appears Omicron is supplanting it as many predicted. It is marked by much higher transmissibility, the ability to evade vaccination, but milder (if any) symptoms for most people. ... So getting vaccinated/boosted looks like it remains the single most effective option for most people to avoid serious illness."

All of these reports, and all we have all learned by now makes clear that it's WAY too early to predict Omicron's severity - except for transmissability. All of the credible sources have so noted, and observed that there are important differences in Omicron penetration, demographics, percentage of vaccination, prior Covid exposure and the like.

Yes, the early numbers are hopeful. The US will be the acid test of "mildness" as the vaccination percentage here is low. In this thread it's clear that we here mostly agree on the value of vaccination and boosters.



"If the science is telling us we will be unable to contain its spread but most people will not become seriously ill, then it only makes sense to try and prevent the overburdening of hospitals by focusing on those who are vulnerable to severe illness and death."

We both agree, or should, that that conclusion may be premature based on the above. There is no broad evidence-based agreement quite yet. Things are surely hopeful; however, the next 2-4 weeks should better establish the trajectory and allow such a conclusion. Hope that helps.

It's definitely hard, but we can only be patient...

I certainly agree that many conclusions are still premature, and others may take years to unravel. We all need to be careful not to either minimize nor overstate, esp. as laymen interpreting scientific studies. We've already seen, however, many examples showing Omicron with different symptomatology from Delta and previous variants, and so should not simply assume it will produce the same frequency & severity of Long Covid. It appears far too early for any of the studies you cited, even more recent ones, to have considered data from this new variant.

[Montanan]

Arghhh! 2020 Too

Massive New Bird Flu Outbreak Could Be 2022’s Deadly Pandemic

Israel’s National Security Council has assumed control of a massive bird flu outbreak in the Galilee that scientists warn could become a “mass disaster” for humans. Over half a billion migrating birds pass through the area every year, heading for the warm African winters or the balmy summers in Europe, meaning this is a catastrophic location for a major bird flu outbreak right at the nexus of global avian travel.

The virus is extremely deadly if it infects people. The World Health Organization says more than half of the confirmed 863 human cases it has tracked since 2003 proved to be fatal. Most strains or variants of avian flu, H5N1, are relatively difficult to transmit to people. Yossi Leshem, one of Israel’s most renowned ornithologists told The Daily Beast, however, that it is the ability of these viruses to mutate into new strains which is such a threat, as we have seen with the coronavirus. “There could be a mutation that also infects people and turns into a mass disaster,” said Leshem, zoologist at Tel Aviv University and director of the International Center for the Study of Bird Migration at Latrun.

So far, at least 5,400 wild cranes have died infected with the new H5N1 avian flu, which Israeli authorities fear could expand into a global emergency. Of the 30,000 Eurasian cranes passing this winter at the Hula reserve, 17 percent are dead, and scientists fear the worst for their surviving brethren, at least 10,000 of which appear to be ailing. The infection of the cranes is the same strain of avian flu which infested chicken coops throughout northern Israel, and led to the cull in recent days of nearly a million birds.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...?ocid=msedgntp

[Montanan]

A study published Oct. 14 in JAMA Network Open analyzed the various lengths of COVID infections among more than 250,000 virus survivors. The researchers conducted a systematic review of 57 studies to find the proportion of individuals who reported experiencing at least one COVID symptom in three different intervals: short-term at one month, intermediate-term at two to five months, and long-term at six or more months. According to the study, 54 percent of the study population experienced long-term symptoms for six or more months after COVID diagnosis or hospital discharge. One month and two to five months after infection, 54 percent and 55 percent of the population still experienced symptoms as well, respectively.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...tm_term=101321

"These findings confirm what many health care workers and COVID-19 survivors have been claiming, namely that adverse health effects from COVID-19 can linger," . . . "The burden of poor health in COVID-19 survivors is overwhelming," . . . "Among these are the mental health disorders. One's battle with COVID doesn't end with recovery from the acute infection."

According to the study, health care providers in the coming years are likely to see an influx of psychiatric and cognitive problems among patients who were otherwise healthy before their COVID infection.

The researchers found that common lingering complications of COVID included weight loss, fatigue, fever, pain, decreased mobility, difficulty concentrating, generalized anxiety disorders, chest imaging abnormality, difficulty breathing, chest pain and palpitations, hair loss, rashes, stomach pain, lack of appetite, diarrhea, and vomiting.

I have a cousin who became ill at the age of 16 with Covid in November 2020 a month before the Pfizer vaccine became available in the USA. She was a junior in high school so also too young to be vaccinated for a long time after her illness onset. She became quite ill, fatigue, body aches, severe brain fog and still has many such lingering symptoms to this day. She was very athletic, participating in three of her high school's sports teams and was the smartest student in her class, slated to be the valedictorian, like her two siblings. She had to drop out of school and now is restarting her junior year anew. This summer, she and her parents traveled from Montana to the Mayo Clinic in Rochester Minnesota for six weeks to receive psychological therapy and reeducation training as she now has to learn in a different way because of the cognitive damage she is suffering. She no longer has strength and endurance to participate in school athletics. Covid has taken a tremendous toll on her physical and mental capacities and has hugely changed their family lifestyle and parenting requirements because her parents were trained by the Mayo clinicians also for six weeks to aid in her now special needs recovery processes. Sure wish she could have benefited from having been vaccinated earlier but she became infected before the vaccines were approved for use, not unlike my wife who became infected with polio as a one month old infant in 1952, two years before the vaccine was available and she has endured her entire life the physical damage caused by the virus to her left leg and the surgeries required to compensate for its lost growth and muscle development. My wife's good leg needed to be shortened by upwards of four inches to be the same length as her disease damaged leg so as to have even hip height.

Viruses can induce a great deal of damage to many parts of one's body and mind. Hope you all stay healthy.

[Zippee]

Originally Posted by Montanan

A study published Oct. 14 in JAMA Network Open analyzed the various lengths of COVID infections among more than 250,000 virus survivors. The researchers conducted a systematic review of 57 studies to find the proportion of individuals who reported experiencing at least one COVID symptom in three different intervals: short-term at one month, intermediate-term at two to five months, and long-term at six or more months. According to the study, 54 percent of the study population experienced long-term symptoms for six or more months after COVID diagnosis or hospital discharge. One month and two to five months after infection, 54 percent and 55 percent of the population still experienced symptoms as well, respectively.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...tm_term=101321

Great post, thank you. This meta-study is impossible to ignore. That nearly half of all those infected suffer long haul effects should concern us all. On top of that the economic, societal, emotional, family and other effects will haunt us for years.

I have to add that Israel - whose testing, vaccination et al are excellent, will now be offering a 4th to 60+ yrs. old. They have determined that there is fading even after the 3rd. Until the Army or other comes up with an all-variant, all the time vaccine we remain vulnerable.

Our real hope may remain that Omicron is indeed mild for the vaccinated at least, while the unvaccinated may not be as fortunate. We should hope that the drug companies and governments do the right thing and allow licensing and low cost shots for the world. It's time for unity and the end of power, politics and profit. Failure for any is failure for all.

[Montanan]

More regarding the long covid study

https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...1013114112.htm

The mechanisms by which COVID-19 causes lingering symptoms in survivors are not fully understood. These symptoms could result from immune-system overdrive triggered by the virus, lingering infection, reinfection or an increased production of autoantibodies (antibodies directed at their own tissues). The SARS-CoV-2 virus, the agent that causes COVID-19, can access, enter and live in the nervous system. As a result, nervous system symptoms such as taste or smell disorders, memory impairment and decreased attention and concentration commonly occur in survivors.

. . .

According to the findings, survivors experienced an array of residual health issues associated with COVID-19. Generally, these complications affected a patient's general well-being, their mobility or organ systems. Overall, one in two survivors experienced long-term COVID manifestations. The rates remained largely constant from one month through six or more months after their initial illness.

The investigators noted several trends among survivors, such as:

General well-being: More than half of all patients reported weight loss, fatigue, fever or pain.
Mobility: Roughly one in five survivors experienced a decrease in mobility.
Neurologic concerns: Nearly one in four survivors experienced difficulty concentrating.
Mental health disorders: Nearly one in three patients were diagnosed with generalized anxiety disorders.
Lung abnormalities: Six in ten survivors had chest imaging abnormality and more than a quarter of patients had difficulty breathing.
Cardiovascular issues: Chest pain and palpitations were among the commonly reported conditions.
Skin conditions: Nearly one in five patients experienced hair loss or rashes.
Digestive issues: Stomach pain, lack of appetite, diarrhea and vomiting were among the commonly reported conditions.

[Montanan]

The US Center for Disease Control [CDC] modified its isolation and quarantine guidelines.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...?ocid=msedgntp

The guidance continues to be complex.

ISOLATION

The isolation rules are for people who are infected. They are the same for people who are unvaccinated, partly vaccinated, fully vaccinated or boosted.

They say:

—The clock starts the day you test positive.

—An infected person should go into isolations for five days, instead of the previously recommended 10.

—At the end of five days, if you have no symptoms, you can return to normal activities but must wear a mask everywhere — even at home around others — for at least five more days.

—If you still have symptoms after isolating for five days, stay home until you feel better and then start your five days of wearing a mask at all times.

QUARANTINE

The quarantine rules are for people who were in close contact with an infected person but not infected themselves.

For quarantine, the clock starts the day someone is alerted that they may have been exposed to the virus.

Previously, the CDC said people who were not fully vaccinated and who came in close contact with an infected person should stay home for at least 10 days.

Now the agency is saying only people who got booster shots can skip quarantine if they wear masks in all settings for at least 10 days.

That’s a change. Previously, people who were fully vaccinated — which the CDC has defined as having two doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, or one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine — could be exempt from quarantine.

Now, people who got their initial shots but not boosters are in the same situation as those who are partly vaccinated or are not vaccinated at all: They can stop quarantine after five days if they wear masks in all settings for five days afterward.

FIVE DAYS

Suspending both isolation and quarantine after five days is not without risk.

A lot of people get tested when they first feel symptoms, but many Americans get tested for others reasons, like to see if they can visit family or for work. That means a positive test result may not reveal exactly when a person was infected or give a clear picture of when they are most contagious, experts say.

When people get infected, the risk of spread drops substantially after five days, but it does not disappear for everyone. “If you decrease it to five days, you're still going to small but significant number of people who are contagious,” That's why wearing masks is a critical part of the CDC guidance,