Mah mah mah mah myyy carona (my experience with it and some thoughts)

[George DuBose]

I have no friends, I don't go to bars or discos, I don't have a job to lose and the border between The Netherlands and Germany never closed.

For me, nothing changed.

I was able to make a two week cruise down the coast of The Netherlands, Belgium and France to Carteret, France where the harbormaster told me in advance to bring a letter from my Dutch marina, stating that my US-flagged boat had not left the EU in the past 12 years.

The only control I experienced was being hailed by a Dutch Kustwacht cutter who merely asked me where I was coming from, where I was going and how many people on board.

[Lake-Effect]

Sometimes in my zeal for the truth, I do overlook what at first seems implausible... but then it all just makes sense. For example, I've just had my eyes opened on why the government is so keen to see us all in masks. I defy you to watch this and not be convinced:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLxo_R0RmKA

[Westcliffe01]

What, no rabbit ????

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Sometimes in my zeal for the truth, I do overlook what at first seems implausible... but then it all just makes sense. For example, I've just had my eyes opened on why the government is so keen to see us all in masks. I defy you to watch this and not be convinced:

[Yihang]

****. VPN just stopped working.....

[Westcliffe01]

Do you have a mortgage ? The 2008/9 real estate crash trapped me in an unsellable house in SE Michigan from then till now. Only now, after a complete cessation of home building prior to 2008 has the market caught up and home prices started to get back to where they were in 2006 when I bought. First of all, Im on the hook for $1500/month for the mortgage and property taxes and second of all, I have to have local work which is kind of a problem given that the auto industry closed about 3/4 of the factories in Michigan in the last 15 years. Pfizer also closed their development center in Ann Arbor and that alone meant that 2/3 of new homes in subdivisions went up for sale in 2009 after they closed. Most of those homes did not sell till about 2012 so a lot of people must have gone into bankrupcy.


Currently Im still employed but 1/3 of my colleges got laid off in April, what would your advice to them be ?



[QUOTE=DreamBig;3207267]

Originally Posted by Westcliffe01

]

Final thought: Monies and economies are not life, they are ways to provide separation of classes more easily. Or more accurately they are methods to transfer energy and provide a means to value energy. If they crash just continue to live, have the knowledge of how to feed and take care of yourself and your families. If you can do that you will be ok. 😁

[Yihang]

Originally Posted by Westcliffe01

Do you have a mortgage ? The 2008/9 real estate crash trapped me in an unsellable house in SE Michigan from then till now. Only now, after a complete cessation of home building prior to 2008 has the market caught up and home prices started to get back to where they were in 2006 when I bought. First of all, Im on the hook for $1500/month for the mortgage and property taxes and second of all, I have to have local work which is kind of a problem given that the auto industry closed about 3/4 of the factories in Michigan in the last 15 years. Pfizer also closed their development center in Ann Arbor and that alone meant that 2/3 of new homes in subdivisions went up for sale in 2009 after they closed. Most of those homes did not sell till about 2012 so a lot of people must have gone into bankrupcy.


Currently Im still employed but 1/3 of my colleges got laid off in April, what would your advice to them be ?

Leverage whatever skills they have and look beyond the state. If they are white, come to Asia and teach english and live like kings. Just saying, it'a big world out here. If you are willing to open your mind there's probably a way for you to have a good life somewhere. Unless you have 3 kids in tow then your ****ed.

[Cadence]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Todays papers in the UK say theres 5 times as many people dying of influenza as are dying of Covid-19.
While every death is a tragedy for someone there still lingers at the back of my mind a needless panic has been created and now being perpetuated by the media resulting in politicians running round like headless chickens reacting to muscle memory.. in the UK at least.
After over 6 months of this and the amount of so called confirmed cases I am surprised no studies appear to have been carried out on immunity levels after recovery.. as far as I am aware.

I feel sure studies have been carried out. I think they just don't know. Next question, if immune can they still carry it to others if in contact with it again.

[Westcliffe01]

So walk away, totally trash your credit ? Make it legally possible for the bank to garnish my wages wherever I get myself a "real job". No, not my style. If I'm lucky I will sell the house before the lockdown destroys the property value a second time, since the state is already screwed.

Originally Posted by Yihang

Leverage whatever skills they have and look beyond the state. If they are white, come to Asia and teach english and live like kings. Just saying, it'a big world out here. If you are willing to open your mind there's probably a way for you to have a good life somewhere. Unless you have 3 kids in tow then your ****ed.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Cadence

I feel sure studies have been carried out. I think they just don't know. Next question, if immune can they still carry it to others if in contact with it again.

Yes but thats when Herd Immunity should kick in..
Not that that counts for much when one considers the annual flu fatalities and low immunities.
We either accept it like flu or continue to run round like headess chickens till we bankrupt the world.
Sorry.. But life is a brutal affair.

[KenKo]

Hi, A few comments that might illuminate a bit. First, it is true that the immune response is a large part of the culprit (a flood of T cells to infection site) that is protective but can also cause a loss of lung capacity if too strong a response. That doesn't mean the virus is not the real source of the problem. An analogy would be to say that bullets don't cause death from gun shots, but rather the body's bleeding response to the bullets.

A second point is that there is an overall transmission factor called R0 (R zero) that describes how many people an infected person is likely to infect. If above 1 it leads to exponential growth (if it's 2 for ex. then person one infects 2, who infect 4 who infect 8 etc.). If it can be held below 1.0 then it leads to exponential decline (say for ex. 1/2 x 1/2 x 1'2 etc.). So in the New Zealand example, by closing down early on they've had more than 3 months of zero cases. So how does it end?
Anything that reduces R0, masks, social distancing, administering a vaccine once one is developed and tested, contact tracing and isolation, avoiding indoor crowds, etc. leads to an R0 below 1. All of those actions complement each other and don't just reduce the exposure of the person who practices them but everyone else as well--and allows for the progressive reopening of society.
The US has had 5.06 million cases so far (CDC) and 162,407 deaths as of yesterday (Aug. 12), a fatality rate of about 3%. Flu kills an average of approx. 1/10 of that no. of people in an average year (for those of you who want to minimise the impact of covid 19 by arguing that flu is more dangerous).

Finally, if you want a good source of data, Johns Hopkins has a daily update that is superb.
Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security <centerhealthsecurity@mail301.jh.edu

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by NorthCoastJoe

Looked like a fun debate, but nobody wacked the hornets nest yet.

The world has too many humans and is fighting back.

Locally we had a over population of deer the next year there was a disease killing deer off. Population rebalanced.

It is nature doing what it does.

Yes, at this point humanity and our critters (cows, pigs, chickens) are the largest food source on Earth. Only makes sense something would try to exploit that.

[Creedence]

Originally Posted by KenKo

Hi, A few comments that might illuminate a bit. First, it is true that the immune response is a large part of the culprit (a flood of T cells to infection site) that is protective but can also cause a loss of lung capacity if too strong a response. That doesn't mean the virus is not the real source of the problem. An analogy would be to say that bullets don't cause death from gun shots, but rather the body's bleeding response to the bullets.

A second point is that there is an overall transmission factor called R0 (R zero) that describes how many people an infected person is likely to infect. If above 1 it leads to exponential growth (if it's 2 for ex. then person one infects 2, who infect 4 who infect 8 etc.). If it can be held below 1.0 then it leads to exponential decline (say for ex. 1/2 x 1/2 x 1'2 etc.). So in the New Zealand example, by closing down early on they've had more than 3 months of zero cases. So how does it end?
Anything that reduces R0, masks, social distancing, administering a vaccine once one is developed and tested, contact tracing and isolation, avoiding indoor crowds, etc. leads to an R0 below 1. All of those actions complement each other and don't just reduce the exposure of the person who practices them but everyone else as well--and allows for the progressive reopening of society.
The US has had 5.06 million cases so far (CDC) and 162,407 deaths as of yesterday (Aug. 12), a fatality rate of about 3%. Flu kills an average of approx. 1/10 of that no. of people in an average year (for those of you who want to minimise the impact of covid 19 by arguing that flu is more dangerous).

Finally, if you want a good source of data, Johns Hopkins has a daily update that is superb.
Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security <centerhealthsecurity@mail301.jh.edu

Fair and valid points, but there is a distinction that is being glossed over that carries the profound implications in my mind.

Correct, the introduction of the virus IS what causes the immune system response. But the distinction is that it's the overreaction that SOME people experience (because of genetic or other physical characteristics yet to be fully understood) that causes the lingering damage. That is in contrast to something like HIV which resides in the body after the initial visible symptoms of infection have gone away, and the virus presents itself down the road.

Building on the bullet analogy, let's say that some people may lack bulletproof vests (which reduce, not eliminate) the effects of taking a bullet, and they suffer much more. Those of us who have been shot and found that we are not among those who lack the resilience of a vest, can be shot again, and (according to the date: CDC has yet to identify a case of a more serious second infection) will suffer similarly less than lethal impacts as the first round. {Of course, sticking to an analogy too long in a discussion can make it begin to seem a little detached from reality, but if you focus on the principles rather than the story line, the concepts are sound and outline the reality.}

The point being, the damage is a result of the body's response, not because of some latent resurgence of the virus like HIV or the Herpes virus.


On the R0 element, this is a different virus than the flu, and I'm not one to go down the comparison rabbit hole. The symptoms felt somewhat similar, but the comparison in my mind ends there.

I'm learning the reason public officials overreacted initially is because this was a relative to a much more deadly virus (SARS), and much more communicable (higher R0 value). Not knowing what this SARS relative would be capable of, and knowing it was more infectious, a dramatic response makes a lot of sense.

But the mitigation strategies we're employing will never be successful at stopping the spread of this virus. They may slow it, but short of a perfectly effective immunization, communities will eventually run through the process of developing heard immunity. That's nature running its course. All societies can do is try to slow it if they like (reduce demand on medical infrastructure), isolate compromised/high risk individuals (based on what medical professionals THINK make someone high risk), and either 1: administer the highly effective immunization to the population, or 2: let it do what it does, because short of a perfect inoculation plan, heard immunity is the only end state.

We as sailors know how successful mankind is at manipulating nature!


But all great discussion, and I love how it's avoiding the political derailment.

Edit to add: I even find comparisons of death rates among countries less valuable than most, and that was brought up here a ways back with the India example. We don't yet know what genetic markers make you more susceptible to the "over reaction" that makes this deadly for some. Because we don't know the markers, we have no idea what role race plays in this. We don't know all of the physical conditions yet lead to the "over reaction', so it's impossible to say if there are cultural elements that play a role.

The only variable I see championed above all others are government reactions, but the propensity of common genetic markers endemic to largely genetically homogeneous populations like India, China, Japan, etc likely plays a tremendous role in how many of those infected citizens die. The one thing many CAN agree on is that certain physical conditions (old age, obesity, comorbidities like diabetes) play a significant role, and therefore it's easy to recognize differences between countries that may really be caused by those factors. (For example, the US has a large percentage of people suffering from obesity, diabetes, and may have a higher number of senior citizens than others). But given that humans are fundamentally tribal animals, it's a default position for us to assign fallout to whatever "buckets" we recognize "our" respective tribes to fall into... and in Covidland, that's national borders, and within those, it's political parties.

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by ilanortho

[ As we well know, promises of safety are for the most part covering the systematic erosion of individual rights that make us less safe than we have ever been before. The gun rights argument being the best example since the places where guns are absolutely banned are the most likely for large numbers of people to be executed by maniacs looking for their minute of fame.

What absolute BS: 160000 deaths in 8 months and it will impinge on our rights. I wish those people who talk about their "rights" realize that we give up some of our rights in a society. That's how it works. Next time I see someone without a mask I swear I'm going to strip buck naked because wearing pants is "an infringement of my rights. Sounds like parents who won't immunize their kids because it impinges on "their rights" while everyone else does it which ends up protecting those who only care about themselves. If wearing a mask is what infringes your rights, then this society has lost it's backbone compared to what our ancestors endured to make it work. And no "WE" don't believe that this is impinging on our rights; it protects "US." I feel I live very freely thank you with these common sense restrictions. After 40 years as a health care provider taking care of sick people, this selfish "it's my rights" absolutely disgusts me as a "me me me" attitude. Wear the friggin' mask and grow a pair. It's not for the government, it is for your fellow human beings. This conspiracy crap going around and growing by the day makes me feel like I'm living in the middle east.[/QUOTE]We have the luxury of conspiracy due the affluence and freedom we currently have as a result of having democracy and "rights"....after spending many years around people that just dont have the same "rights" as us, I struggle with our western "we have rights and we deserve" mentality...we are very spoilt bunch.

[Cadence]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Yes but thats when Herd Immunity should kick in..
Not that that counts for much when one considers the annual flu fatalities and low immunities.
We either accept it like flu or continue to run round like headess chickens till we bankrupt the world.
Sorry.. But life is a brutal affair.

I'll bet typhoid Mary was a carrier? You are right on the economics and what about education? I can't help but think online is not the same as in class room instruction although that probably depends on the individual in a non technical
pursuit of higher education.
K/12 will go down the tubes

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by daletournier

What absolute BS: 160000 deaths in 8 months and it will impinge on our rights. I wish those people who talk about their "rights" realize that we give up some of our rights in a society. That's how it works. Next time I see someone without a mask I swear I'm going to strip buck naked because wearing pants is "an infringement of my rights. Sounds like parents who won't immunize their kids because it impinges on "their rights" while everyone else does it which ends up protecting those who only care about themselves. If wearing a mask is what infringes your rights, then this society has lost it's backbone compared to what our ancestors endured to make it work. And no "WE" don't believe that this is impinging on our rights; it protects "US." I feel I live very freely thank you with these common sense restrictions. After 40 years as a health care provider taking care of sick people, this selfish "it's my rights" absolutely disgusts me as a "me me me" attitude. Wear the friggin' mask and grow a pair. It's not for the government, it is for your fellow human beings. This conspiracy crap going around and growing by the day makes me feel like I'm living in the middle east.

We have the luxury of conspiracy due the affluence and freedom we currently have as a result of having democracy and "rights"....after spending many years around people that just dont have the same "rights" as us, I struggle with our western "we have rights and we deserve" mentality...we are very spoilt bunch.[/QUOTE]Hmmm, I'm not sure what happened here BUT I did not right the above?