A Little Good News

[GordMay]

US Emissions Lowest in Post-World War II Era

United States greenhouse gas emissions fell by 10.3 percent, in 2020, according to a report from the Rhodium Group.
The economic fallout, from the uncontrolled spread of COVID-19, especially in big emitting sectors like transportation, power and industry, resulted in a sharper emissions drop than the 2009 recession, when emissions slid 6.3 percent.
Leading the decline was the transportation sector, which saw an emissions drop of 14.7 percent, from 2019 levels. Power plant emissions saw the second-largest decline, dropping 10.3 percent below 2019 levels, driven by retirements of coal-fired power plants, and a general decline in electricity demand, due to the economic damage from the pandemic, the report said.

“Preliminary US Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimates for 2020"
➥ https://rhg.com/research/preliminary-us-emissions-2020/

[MrZhdens]

At least something good out of the last year...

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by MrZhdens

At least something good out of the last year...

Except, it's not entirely "good" news.
Generally, emissions declined last year because the economy declined, not because the energy system has decarbonized, excepting that coal use fell by almost 19 percent, while electricity demand declined by only about 2 percent. Renewables and gas made up the difference. (GHG pollution from the power sector fell by 10.3 percent)

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Except, it's not entirely "good" news.
Generally, emissions declined last year because the economy declined, not because the energy system has decarbonized, excepting that coal use fell by almost 19 percent, while electricity demand declined by only about 2 percent. Renewables and gas made up the difference. (GHG pollution from the power sector fell by 10.3 percent)

Well, Gaia doesn't care how it happens, or what happens to us . A decline in emissions is still a decline.

[Capn Jimbo]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Well, Gaia doesn't care how it happens, or what happens to us . A decline in emissions is still a decline.

Mike I do understand; a decline is still a decline, at least on its face. Keep in mind that when a massive tsunami occurs, the water level drops before the killing tidal wave roars in. Yet a drop is still a drop, eh?

And that is the primary intended point, wouldn't you agree? Unless of course you are predicting the Covid destruction of the economy is the new normal...


One other factor:

The drops in carbon were accompanied by drops in sulfur dioxide. While the drop in carbon alone might decrease warming, this is nearly balanced by the loss of cooling due to the loss of sulfur dioxide. One study estimated that as a result of these competing factors, global temperatures would only decrease by 0.01 degrees in the next five years - almost meaningless.

Perhaps this is a case where a decline is not a decline...

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Capn Jimbo

Mike I do understand; a decline is still a decline, at least on its face. Keep in mind that when a massive tsunami occurs, the water level drops before the killing tidal wave roars in. Yet a drop is still a drop, eh?

And that is the primary intended point, wouldn't you agree? Unless of course you are predicting the Covid destruction of the economy is the new normal...

Oh, I get it. I think everyone expects a massive surge in economic (hence pollution) output once we get a handle on the virus. This will likely erase any gains we may have made, climate-change speaking.

But maybe... just maybe, one lesson of all this is that we really don't need all the crap our consumerist culture tells us to buy all the time. Maybe... just maybe we can remember how we've all done with a little less during these Covid times. And maybe... just maybe that will become the new normal?

I know... dreaming in technocolour.

Originally Posted by Capn Jimbo

The drops in carbon were accompanied by drops in sulfur dioxide. While the drop in carbon alone might decrease warming, this is nearly balanced by the loss of cooling due to the loss of sulfur dioxide. One study estimated that as a result of these competing factors, global temperatures would only decrease by 0.01 degrees in the next five years - almost meaningless.

Perhaps this is a case where a decline is not a decline...

Can you link to that study Jim. Love to read it. I've actually been wondering about these kinds of effects.

I recall after 9/11 there was a study into the effects of the loss of all that air traffic. My recollection is that climatologist found an increase in global temperature due to a decrease in the planet's albedo, which was caused by the loss of all the contrails. This reduced the reflectivity of the planet for a short while, allowing more sunlight to penetrate.

Given the significantly fewer planes that are now flying, I've been curious if anyone has looked at the climate impact. I assume we'd see the same increases.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...cts-of-contra/

[Capn Jimbo]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

But maybe... just maybe, one lesson of all this is that we really don't need all the crap our consumerist culture tells us to buy all the time. Maybe... just maybe we can remember how we've all done with a little less during these Covid times. And maybe... just maybe that will become the new normal?

I know... dreaming in technocolour.

Brilliant! I love this view Mike. And you just might be onto something. Nobody but nobody would ever have predicted the US' politics of the moment, but it happened. And changes that we never thought would happen - I mean for the positive - saving our democracy and going back to the rule of law and the peaceful transfer of power. We now see where power politics ended up.

The same might be true of the environment. More people are working remotely. We order things. We save our money and spend very carefully. We think about tomorrow. We think more about our health because we're afraid to go to the doctors. So we eat better. We are faced with our mortality and we think about what's really important.

Don't get me wrong. Bad things are happening too. Depression, stress and the like - but I believe these things will resolve. The positive changes and attitudes may last.

You really may be right. From chaos comes change, eh? Covid is nature's way of getting our attention. Thank you!

[GordMay]

Researchers, from the Stockholm Resilience Centre and Duke University, assessed* eight core ocean industries: offshore oil and gas, marine equipment and construction, seafood production and processing, container shipping, shipbuilding and repair, cruise tourism, port activities and offshore wind.
Combined these industries had revenues of $1.9 trillion in 2018, the most recent year analysed.
According to the study*, the 100 largest companies (“The Ocean 100”) took an estimated 60% of all revenues in these eight industries.
The largest companies, in a given industry, can operate similarly to keystone species, in ecological communities, meaning that they can have a disproportionate effect on the structure and function of the system, in which they operate.

* “The Ocean 100: Transnational corporations in the ocean economy” ~ by J. Virdin et al
“... The ocean economy is highly concentrated among a relatively small number of companies. The 100 Trans-National Companies (TNCs) with the highest annual revenues in 2018 from ocean use, labeled here as the Ocean 100, generated 60% of the total revenues from their respective industries, which collectively form the core of the ocean economy. Emerging ocean industries with high entry costs, such as deep-sea mining, marine biotechnology, and offshore renewable energy, are likely to reinforce this trend. This poses risks for achieving internationally agreed targets for conservation and sustainable use, most notably within the Sustainable Development Agenda and the Strategic Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity...”
Here ➥ https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/3/eabc8041


“Seafood Business for Ocean Stewardship” (SeaBOS)
The SeaBOS initiative has drawn attention as a novel cross-sector collaboration within the global seafood industry, involving ten of the world’s largest seafood companies and dozens of scientists across disciplines and universities, leading a global transformation towards sustainable seafood production and a healthy ocean.
Six task forces have been set up, each led by companies in collaboration with and supported by scientists:
(1) Addressing illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing and forced labour, (2) Improving traceability in global seafood,
(3) Working with governments to improve regulations,
(4) Transparency and governance of SeaBOS,
(5) Reducing plastic in seafood supply chains
and
(6) Climate resilience.
More Here ➥ https://seabos.org/

[GordMay]

Crown-of-Thorns Starfish on Australia's Great Barrier Reef

In normal numbers, on healthy coral reefs, Crown-of-Thorns Starfish [CoTS] are an important part of the ecosystem. They tend to eat the faster growing corals which gives the slower growing species a chance to catch up, enhancing the coral diversity of our reefs.
However, when the coral-eating starfish appear in outbreak proportions, the impact on coral reefs can be disastrous.
In recent years, a portion of the Great Barrier Reef has been destroyed, by crown-of-thorns starfish. The next CoTS outbreak, on the GBR, is predicted to begin between 2025 and 2027, consequently efforts to detect and suppress pre-initiation populations must start no later than the summer of 2022–2023.

Two pieces of Good News:

1. Researchers have recently investigated the possibility of managing the propagation of CoTS, around coral reefs, using autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs). In a paper[*1] pre-published on arXiv, they presented an approach that allows multiple AUVs (‘COTSbots’) to cooperate on the task of monitoring and controlling the presence of CoTS, around the Great Barrier Reef, to prevent further damage to it.
COTSbots are unique underwater robotic systems developed at Queensland University of Technology (QUT), equipped with onboard cameras, a computer vision system, and a foldable robotic arm with a long needle, at its end. The robot navigates underwater in specific areas around coral reefs using a GPS system to orient itself, and collects images underwater using its onboard cameras. The images are then analyzed by an artificial neural network trained to detect the presence of CoTS. When the system detects the coral-eating starfish, it injects them with lethal bile salts using the needle at the end of its robotic arm.

[*1] “A Cooperative Dynamic Task Assignment Framework for COTSBot AUVs” ~ by Amin Abbasi, et al
➥ https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2101/2101.03696.pdf

2. Researchers Jason Doyle and Sven Uthicke, at the Australian Institute of Marine Science, have developed a dipstick test, that can detect crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS) on coral reefs, by using the same technology as home pregnancy tests.
The dipstick, which is designed to be used in the field, measures specific DNA that CoTS release into the seawater. The rapid test can detect very low numbers of the coral-eating pest, which can be difficult to spot, with current survey methods.
An average adult CoTS (Acanthaster cf. solaris) can eat up to a dinner-plate amount of coral every day, and outbreaks contribute considerably to the loss of corals on the Great Barrier Reef. There have been three outbreaks since 1962, with a fourth outbreak currently underway.
The native starfish often hide under, or on, coral plates, while younger CoTS can be as small as a couple of millimeters. This makes it harder for traditional diver surveys to spot the creatures and identify emerging outbreaks.
The dipstick test research[*2], published in the journal Environmental DNA, builds on AIMS' previous breakthrough work, developing laboratory-based, DNA-detection techniques, to find CoTS more effectively, and at pre-outbreak levels. They adapted an, off-the-shelf dipstick, and a technology called Lateral Flow Assay (LFA), to detect DNA in marine environments. LFA has been used for many years in home blood sugar and pregnancy tests, and more recently for Coronavirus tests.

[*2] “Sensitive environmental DNA detection via lateral flow assay (dipstick)—A case study on corallivorous crown of thorns sea star (Acanthaster cf. solaris) detection” ~ by Jason Doyle and Sven Uthicke
➥ https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/....1002/edn3.123

Monitoring Crown of Thorns Starfish (COTS) outbreaks on the Great Barrier Reef:
Animation ➥ https://eatlas.org.au/content/crown-...eaks-animation
LTMP ➥ https://www.aims.gov.au/docs/researc...onitoring.html

[djousset]

And a Snowy Owl found its way to NYC

https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/snow...me-in-130-yrs/

[GordMay]

Two out of Three Prognosticators Predict an Early Spring:

According to folklore, if a groundhog doesn't see his shadow on Groundhog Day, spring-like weather will soon arrive. However, if the pug-nosed critter spots his shadow, winter will drag on.

Shubenacadie Sam was the first groundhog in North America to make a prediction. He didn’t see his shadow. suggesting an early spring.
However, Punxsutawney Phil predicted 6 more weeks of winter.
Wiarton Willie predicted an early spring.

[AK_sailor]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Two out of Three Prognosticators Predict an Early Spring:

According to folklore, if a groundhog doesn't see his shadow on Groundhog Day, spring-like weather will soon arrive. However, if the pug-nosed critter spots his shadow, winter will drag on.

Shubenacadie Sam was the first groundhog in North America to make a prediction. He didn’t see his shadow. suggesting an early spring.
However, Punxsutawney Phil predicted 6 more weeks of winter.
Wiarton Willie predicted an early spring.

I believe this is what meteorologists refer to as an "Ensemble Forecast".

[GordMay]

Renewables outstrip fossil fuels as the EU’s main source of power

Ember and Agora Energiewende’s fifth annual report, tracking Europe’s electricity transition, was published on January 25, 2021*.

It revealed that renewables overtook fossil fuels, to become the EU’s main source of electricity, for the first time in 2020.

Renewables rose to generate 38% of Europe’s electricity in 2020 (compared to 34.6% in 2019), for the first time overtaking fossil-fired generation, which fell to 37%. This is an important milestone in Europe’s Clean Energy Transition. At a country level, Germany and Spain (and separately the UK) also achieved this milestone for the first time.

Denmark achieved the highest proportion of wind and solar power, which contributed 61 percent of its electricity needs in 2020. Ireland achieved 35 percent, and Germany 33 percent.

Countries with the lowest share of renewables, below 5 percent, were Slovakia, and the Czech Republic.

The transition from coal to clean is, however, still too slow for reaching 55% greenhouse gas reductions by 2030, and climate neutrality by 2050. EU leaders committed (last month) to cut the bloc’s 2030 greenhouse emissions by 55 percent, compared with 1990 levels, and affirmed their pledge to turn Europe into the world’s first climate-neutral continent, by 2050.

* EU Power Sector in 2020 ➥ https://ember-climate.org/project/eu-power-sector-2020/

[GordMay]

USCG Rescues 66 Anglers From Breakaway Ice Floe on Lake Michigan
➥ https://www.facebook.com/USCGTraverseCity/
➥ https://www.maritime-executive.com/a...-lake-michigan

[GordMay]

Suicides Are More Likely Down, Than Up, During The Pandemic:

Numerous people have claimed a link between public-health restrictions, and increased suicide rates, without evidence to back it up. Some merely speculated about the potential, early on in the pandemic, while others made stronger claims.
There was a lot of vocal maneuvering, around the use of suicide, as a device, to either end lockdowns or end restrictions, but the actual (early) numbers run counter to the narrative about allegedly skyrocketing rates of suicide, during the pandemic.
These assumptions (that suicide rates would increase during the pandemic) are not supported by the growing amount of evidence, coming out of Canadian provinces, and other jurisdictions around the world.

Recently released data [1], out of, British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia, suggest that suicide rates actually declined (Avg. -11.9%) in 2020.
Alberta saw a particularly noticeable decline, according to preliminary data, compiled by the province in late January, that counted 468 deaths by suicide, in 2020, compared to more than 600, in each of the previous four years.[2]
Saskatchewan recorded 134 deaths by suicide in 2020, compared with an average of more than 200 over the previous four years. [3]
B.C. hasn't released full data for 2020 yet but preliminary, year-to-date figures from January to August were lower last year than in 2019.[4]
A recent paper [5] in the scientific journa,l Nature Human Behaviour, found evidence that the suicide rate, in Japan, declined in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, but then rose again amid the second wave of the virus.

[1] “Suicide Rate Change, Canada 2019 - 2020"
➥ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1418861357

[2] “Suicide deaths in Alberta in 2020 fewer than what was recorded last year”
➥ https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/suicide-d...year-1.5228242

[3] “Suicides by Year, Sex and Age Group 2005 to 2020"
➥ https://pubsaskdev.blob.core.windows...y%252B2021.pdf

[4] “BC Coroners Service (BCCS) Suicide Data – Knowledge Update to August 31, 2020"
➥ https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/bi...dge_update.pdf

[5] “Increase in suicide following an initial decline during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan” ~ by Takanao Tanaka & Shohei Okamoto
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01042-z