Official TS Ian/Hurricane Ian thread

[Messing About]

Now that the NWS has named the system Ian, it seems appropriate to give it its own official discussion thread. Post stories, links, pictures and, most importantly, plans and accounts of any personal experiences preparing for, dealing with or trying to avoid the storm.

Here’s the latest cone of uncertainty. The Florida Keys may soon be out of it, as it takes a slight shift to the East. Anyone coming down the Great Loop Rivers, headed for the gulf? That will be me, one year from now. If you are cruising the Gulf Coast now, what is your plan?
What about those in the Keys? Let’s talk about it here.

[Sailor Sailor]

Almost all the models show it developing into a Category 2 (96 - 110 mph) to Category 4 (130-156 mph) hurricane. This is no joke. Time to prepare. Haul out if you can. If you are in the Ft. Myer to Tampa Bay areas, it is time to leave for a few days. By Monday, it may be too late.

[Sailor Sailor]

The Keys will be in the Northeast quadrant - could be devastating damage there...

[gonesail]

i fear the lower Keys and Charlotte Harbor will be hit hard if Ian stays on this path. there are a lot of old wooden houses on that part of the coast. what a headache after such a quiet summer

[Messing About]

From Mike's Weather Page, aka spaghettimodels.com

Saturday 5pm NHC track update on Tropical Storm Ian. Track bumped west again. NHC noting high uncertainty days 4-5. NHC: "Regardless of Ian’s exact track, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast".

Florida Keys to Naples now out of the cone of uncertainty.

[GreenWave]

This storm has shifted west and is likely going to strike land north of Tarpon Springs. Not good for Tampa Bay Area. Time to get plans going if you live there or have a boat there.

[chris mac]

We are docked in green cove springs, east coast by Jacksonville.
Looks like we will see one side or the other of it, but hopefully diminished from crossing over the land. I can't say that I'm looking forward to it

[Wolfe10]

Originally Posted by chris mac

We are docked in green cove springs, east coast by Jacksonville.
Looks like we will see one side or the other of it, but hopefully diminished from crossing over the land. I can't say that I'm looking forward to it

Current forecast suggests you will get some rain, but no really significant wind.

[Messing About]

Overnight model runs. Only GFS differs.

[Messing About]

Ian reaches Hurricane status.

Latest cone of uncertainty has Ian as a major hurricane on approach to or while skirting the Florida West Coast.

[WSMFP]

I'm doing all the preps I can but there's no where available to haul out. My marina doesn't have any more stands.

[Messing About]

Originally Posted by WSMFP

I'm doing all the preps I can but there's no where available to haul out. My marina doesn't have any more stands.

What area are you in?
Do you live aboard?

I have been playing this scenario out in my mind, as I’m a year away from living aboard in the Charlotte Harbor region, where I previously own a home and boats for 9 years. When I return, it will be with only a boat and one which I carry all of the risk (no insurance).

A week ago, when I first started talking about this system, I would have been headed east from Florida, toward Texas. Making 100 miles a day, two weeks ahead of the storm would have gotten me out of harms way.

Now, 4-5 days out, if I found myself still in Florida, looking for a plan. . . What I would do is:

Empty waste tanks, fill fresh water and fuel tanks, emptying Jerry Cans first, stowing the cans. Have a months worth of bottled water for drinking and of course adequate food supply.

Ensure all batteries are full and bilge pumps are functioning. Have manual bilge pump aboard.

identify a suitable hurricane hole in one of the many tidal creeks as an anchorage; preferably among mangroves for some kind of cover. Someplace without rocks or riprap. Put out 3 anchors, planning for a potential 10’ tidal surge. Include marker buoys to locate anchors later, in case you have to release them and retrieve later. Strip all running gear, solar panels and topside accessories and stow below.

If it’s my home, I stay aboard. Part of my risk management plan is to be present to manage the risk. I know a guy who did the same, in a hurricane hole off of Ft Myers Beach during Cat 4 Charley. I would do the same, if I didn’t have sufficient notice to sail away.

Best of luck and God’s blessings to you.
As time allows, keep us updated.

[S/V Illusion]

Glad to know we have an “official” permission to post weather reports

[GreenWave]

Originally Posted by S/V Illusion

Glad to know we have an “official” permission to post weather reports

NOAA issued reports and data are public domain and can be re-published as long as you do not seek compensation for that secondary access.

[S/V Illusion]

Originally Posted by GreenWave

NOAA issued reports and data are public domain and can be re-published as long as you do not seek compensation for that secondary access.

I was being facetious but maybe too subtle.