Climate Change - what to expect for cruising life

[senormechanico]

Originally Posted by jen1722terry

The year-end issue of Scientific American has an excellent article on what's going on with the ice at both poles. The gist is that major changes world-wide may not be by the end of the century or even mid-century, but within the next 10 years. Also, local effects of climate change can vary widely.

Jenn and I have noticed something at our waterfront home in Nova Scotia (we're Yanks who live in Canada half of each year). The float on our wharf is attached to the main wharf by a long ramp which allows the float to rise up/down with the tides. In our 15 years in the house, we've never seen the float rise above the level of the main wharf. This fall was different in that we saw two occasions where the float rose significantly above the wharf level (about a foot). What can that mean?

Just one data point. Food for thought, if nothing else.

Cheers!

Terry and Jenn

King tide and low barometer at the same time.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

I’ve been around for 60 years, and there’s no denying that the sea levels of the western USA, North Eastern USA and the Mediterranean are exactly where they were 60 years ago. The same high water mark...

I'd deny it.
Recent research indicates that global mean sea level, or the average height of the world's oceans, has been increasing by 3 millimeters (.1 inches) per year on average since 1993, when satellites first started measuring it.

But along the U.S. East Coast north of Cape Hatteras, rates of sea level rise were found to be some three to four times higher than the global average over certain periods.

➥ https://phys.org/news/2017-05-differ...t-sea.html#jCp

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by blu3534

...But alas, there is probably not much in this thread because the questions of OP cannot be answered (other than what Valmika wrote above). Too vague, too complicated, not enough scientists or interesting on topic observations like e.g. from Capt Phill.

Or, am I wrong, does someone have 'on-topic-answers'? (or at least something funny instead of crackbrained)

I agree, it’s impossible to answer in general. This is why I tried to be specific in my response about how I’m using historic planning tools like pilot charts. Cornell’s world routes book also acknowledges that climate change is having an impact on historic information that we use.

As humans, we mostly experience weather. Even the lifetime of a human is a poor sampling of climate. This is why science doesn’t rely on anecdote. And it’s why the direct effects on cruising are probably small. At least they’re small from year to year; over a more substantial period of time they will be dramatic.

Personally, I suspect the more dramatic effects might be felt at the social/political level. As more areas of the planet become climate-stressed, and as more people migrate around in search of better lives, I expect to see more restrictions on world travellers like cruisers.

[senormechanico]

Originally Posted by Suijin

What does it mean? It means you’ve not been paying attention!

New England and north has already seen substantial sea level rise over the past 25 years. Halifax and other coastal cities are already developing plans to address various scenarios, based on predicted sea level rise associated with various warming levels

If water seeks its own level, I find it laughable that only certain areas like the ones you mentioned are experiencing ocean rise while other places do not.
Have you ever thought about the very real possibility of land subsidence?
After all, the continents are floating around on an ocean of lava.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by senormechanico

If water seeks its own level, I find it laughable that only certain areas like the ones you mentioned are experiencing ocean rise while other places do not.
Have you ever thought about the very real possibility of land subsidence?
After all, the continents are floating around on an ocean of lava.

There is also the entire science of isotastic rebound .

Why Is Sea Level Rising Faster in Some Places Along the U.S. East Coast Than Others? : Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

[lancelot9898]

I've just finished reading a good book...The Rise and Fall of the Dinosaurs by Steve Brusatte. It gives a good perspective on climate change and our influence on it.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by lancelot9898

I've just finished reading a good book...The Rise and Fall of the Dinosaurs by Steve Brusatte. It gives a good perspective on climate change and our influence on it.

I'll bite. How so?

[lancelot9898]

Read it. I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

[Valmika]

OK. Lets try a different tack if I may.. Kind of get back to OP question. Lets just say climate change is here to stay. Even those that say it is not can play along. Can anyone think of some good that may come of it? It seems it is all doom and gloom in the news but what if it had some good aspects to it. Maybe turning frigid waters to tropical reefs or something. Allowing some of our plastic, not bluwater boats to sail to Alaska. Certain fish populations migrating to areas where they are needed more. Coastal communities that normally relied on fishing now getting enough rain to farm instead. I don't know there could be many more. As sailors we adapt and even as fast as some say this could happen I think the cruising community would adapt. Who knows what avenues this could open up in the future.


Just because it is changing does it have to be bad?

[1Sunseeker]

I do not worry about "climate change" in my lifetime, or even in yours. Check out "Water World," the movie, then for the other opinion read "A Creed for the Third Millennium," by Chlorine McCullough? I think. Two different views of what may happen.

Remember this old earth has been through several changes in climate and weather. So don't worry about it.

"Now Voyager sail thou forth to seek and to find."
Walt Whitman

[44'cruisingcat]

Originally Posted by GordMay

I'd deny it.
Recent research indicates that global mean sea level, or the average height of the world's oceans, has been increasing by 3 millimeters (.1 inches) per year on average since 1993, when satellites first started measuring it.

But along the U.S. East Coast north of Cape Hatteras, rates of sea level rise were found to be some three to four times higher than the global average over certain periods.

➥ https://phys.org/news/2017-05-differ...t-sea.html#jCp

At the lizard Island research station they point out that 10,000 years ago Lizard island was connected to the mainland. Now there's 30 metre deep water between.

So sea levels have risen an average of 3mm per year for the last 10,000 years.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Valmika

Just because it is changing does it have to be bad?

There wouldn't be such a fuss if the net effect was going to be mainly benign or negligable. Besides heightening mass migration and other human disruptions, the rapid change may be too much for many other species to cope with. Are those bad or good?


But fear not, the worst effects won't fall on us boat owners here. We've won the human lottery, most of us. We'll only have to read about the bad stuff. Our kids might not be as sanguine about it though.

[44'cruisingcat]

Originally Posted by Valmika

Just because it is changing does it have to be bad?

That was ny point.

When they thought it was getting colder it was bad.

Now they say it's getting warmer, but it's still bad.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by lancelot9898

Read it. I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

Ok, my turn.

I've just finished reading a good book...The Betty Crocker Cookbook, 11th Edition. It gives a good perspective on climate change and our influence on it. AND it has recipes.

Beat that.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

There wouldn't be such a fuss if the net effect was going to be mainly benign or negligable. Besides heightening mass migration and other human disruptions, the rapid change may be too much for many other species to cope with. Are those bad or good?


But fear not, the worst effects won't fall on us boat owners here. We've won the human lottery, most of us. We'll only have to read about the bad stuff. Our kids might not be as sanguine about it though.

first off you know my side .
Now I will say one thing I wish the world was warming a bit . More food growing areas would become available .
With the predicted cooling of the GSM we are seeing there will be much less arible land that is temperate enough to grow food.
But either way it will have a negligible effect upon 90% of cruisers .