Climate Change - what to expect for cruising life

[Hardhead]

I believe climate change will alter the historic patterns of the tradewinds. Anyone else feel this is so?

[lordgeoff]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

The topic has been discussed here ad nauseam with each thread eventually being closed due to bickering and political discourse. Climate change is a politics/religion issue.

Do a site search and see for yourself.

"What to expect?" Answer: More bickering, arguing and insults.

Maybe the "Marble Machine" will solve the problem.....

You have nailed it. This is the IPCC Global warming Model that has cured my skepticism....thank you Kenomac.

[Hardhead]

repeat post

[jen1722terry]

The year-end issue of Scientific American has an excellent article on what's going on with the ice at both poles. The gist is that major changes world-wide may not be by the end of the century or even mid-century, but within the next 10 years. Also, local effects of climate change can vary widely.

Jenn and I have noticed something at our waterfront home in Nova Scotia (we're Yanks who live in Canada half of each year). The float on our wharf is attached to the main wharf by a long ramp which allows the float to rise up/down with the tides. In our 15 years in the house, we've never seen the float rise above the level of the main wharf. This fall was different in that we saw two occasions where the float rose significantly above the wharf level (about a foot). What can that mean?

Just one data point. Food for thought, if nothing else.

Cheers!

Terry and Jenn

[Nicholson58]

Originally Posted by scherzoja

This could be a useful thread.

The question posed is how would changing weather patterns and changes to marine ecology affect what we use to make decisions about where to sail, when to depart, and what preparation or gear might be needed.

The problem with past threads is that some folks have interjected their beliefs of what is or is not occurring.

The questions asked by the OP are centered on what to expect if climate change is not managed and the changes that are explained in the scientific world come to fruition.

This question was not whether or not climate change religious or political. Those discussions can be taken to another thread.

It will be very interesting to understand how changing weather patterns will affect forecast predictions, pilot charts revisions, economic changes in areas where we cruise, changes in migratory patterns of marine life, changes in insect populations that are disease vectors, changes in rainfall patterns that affect freshwater supplies (for those of us without water makers).

If one wants to debate whether or not climate change is occurring or what is causing it, open another thread.

In this thread, stick to the questions posed by the OP and in the context that Climate Change is occurring and is changing according the the analyses of the IPCC and the National Climate Assessment.

https://www.ipcc.ch/
https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/

Climate is and always has been changing. If you think it can “be handled” then you are God, Hosanna.

I suggest interested folks check out the site WUWT. This is where data from many sources is analyzed by people and scientists who are not on public payroll and whose livelihood does not depend maintaining the narrative.

Weather is not climate.

[Hardhead]

"Climate is and always has been changing." - there is great wisdom in that statement.

There is also wisdom to be found in analyzing the causes of that change, and the parameters of that change.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Nicholson58

Climate is and always has been changing. If you think it can “be handled” then you are God, Hosanna.

I suggest interested folks check out the site WUWT. This is where data from many sources is analyzed by people and scientists who are not on public payroll and whose livelihood does not depend maintaining the narrative.

Nice, the deniers have arrived.

[DeepFrz]

Originally Posted by Nicholson58

Climate is and always has been changing. If you think it can “be handled” then you are God, Hosanna.

I suggest interested folks check out the site WUWT. This is where data from many sources is analyzed by people and scientists who are not on public payroll and whose livelihood does not depend maintaining the narrative.

Weather is not climate.

It is true that weather is not climate, however, weather is affected by the climate. The warmer the oceans the more extreme and unpredictable the storms. The warm oceans are caused by a warming earth, hence a warmer climate.

I see that you have felt the need to post a link to a blog owned by a retired television meteorologist, not a climate scientist that claims to be the most watched climate blog on earth. Not much there in the way of science.

[rsn48]

Its not important to believe or not believe in people affecting the climate, it is important and intelligent to recognize we live in a dynamic environment that is changing through time. Our planet has had a birth, will live through whatever, then death. Just as we as a microplanet experience birth, changes through life to the organism, then death.

So can we play God - No - but we can play scientist to help mitigate what might be inevitable anyway. At some point the earth is not going to inhabitable due to a changing and evolving planet. So if someone can provide a link to the supposed scientists who say the climate hasn't changed over time, then I will stand corrected. I eagerly await the links.

[Valmika]

Climate change maybe will alter trade winds, currents, etc. If the ocean level increases I would be able to get into harbors I can't get into now. Who is to say the new directions and winds won't be better for some area than the old ones. The point is before we had all the cool weather predictions sailors just handled the hand they were dealt. When something changes for the worse one place it may change for the better somewhere else. The changes should be gradual and manageable (by the sailing community). I guess worse case we will go extinct but the earth will survive. It always has.

[Dave_S]

Originally Posted by jen1722terry

The year-end issue of Scientific American has an excellent article on what's going on with the ice at both poles. The gist is that major changes world-wide may not be by the end of the century or even mid-century, but within the next 10 years. Also, local effects of climate change can vary widely.

Jenn and I have noticed something at our waterfront home in Nova Scotia (we're Yanks who live in Canada half of each year). The float on our wharf is attached to the main wharf by a long ramp which allows the float to rise up/down with the tides. In our 15 years in the house, we've never seen the float rise above the level of the main wharf. This fall was different in that we saw two occasions where the float rose significantly above the wharf level (about a foot). What can that mean?

Just one data point. Food for thought, if nothing else.

Cheers!

Terry and Jenn

I don't think anyone is suggesting climate change has caused the water levels anywhere in the world to have risen by a foot in the last 12 months. There must be some other cause for this rapid change.

[iyamwhatiyam]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

Here’s a useful observation: I expect our boat to float on top of the water no matter what the sea level happens to be.

The only "settled science" here is the immutability of human nature.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesta.../#7a6b958f27ba

[Mike OReilly]

I wish we could discuss this subject rationally, but I know this is not possible for a small, loud crowd here. So before this gets shut down I just want to say I too wonder about these questions.

Standard global cruising routes are based on historic climate patterns. Pilot charts, and their offshoot tools, are used by cruisers to plan their paths and their timings. These are becoming less reliable.

Jimmy Cornell’s latest edition of his "World Cruising Routes” explicitly points to changing patterns caused by climate change.

"The most important changes in the fully revised eighth edition (2018) focus on the effects of climate change, especially on routes that are vulnerable to changing weather conditions. All routes influenced by tropical cyclones have been updated to take into account the risk of less predictable tropical storm seasons."

I am lingering in Newfoundland with the view to heading to the Pacific Northwest. What began as a foolish fantasy about us taking the Northwest Passage is becoming less and less foolish with every passing year. Boats of my caliber are now transiting.

In my current area migratory patterns are changing for whales and birds. Water temperature is on the rise. Gales have been more frequent in the summer months.

So yeah… it is an issue for cruisers. But sadly, not here on Cruisers Forum.

[S/V Illusion]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Nice, the deniers have arrived.

I haven't seen that here and certainly not yet in this thread. Rather, it seems no one disputes that the climate is changing. It has continually done so and we're all still here complaining about bottom paint, dysfunctional electronics, etc...


Not listening to people with whom you may disagree is a form of willful ignorance. And using derisive terms labeling people with whom you may disagree is a pretty weak tactic.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by S/V Illusion

Not listening to people with whom you may disagree is a form of willful ignorance. And using derisive terms labeling people with whom you may disagree is a pretty weak tactic.

Oh, I'm listening. Denial is still denial.


But putting that aside, I did respond to the OP regarding expectations. The responses which I would term characteristic of "denial" have not. But it's nice that they dropped by.