Will there be a glut of boats for sale once Baby Boomers retire from boating?

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Yes, there were many more sailboats at the distant past boat shows. There were also many more sailboat manufacturers in the 70s, 80s, & 90s (in Canada).
Some historical pictures from the Toronto International Boat Show:
1984: Wall to wall Sailboats
1987: Wall to wall Powerboats
...

Thanks Gord. Are you saying that in a span of three years the show went from dominate sail to dominate power? What happened between 1984 and 87 that would cause this sudden shift?

I’ve been attending the boat show since the early 00’s, and in my estimation the (small) floor space dedicated to sail hasn’t noticeably changed over that time.

[Midtownsails]

A lot of fine goods are going down in price because millenials seem to have little interest in anything except electronics. Eventually, like everything, the tide will change and they'll wake up or maybe the generation after them will.

[John_Trusty]

A pertinent article found in Sailing Scuttlebutt by Paulo Pernão on Boot Dusseldorf seems to echo the trends noted above - larger, more expensive, retirees, more coastal, etc. :
https://www.sailingscuttlebutt.com/2...acht-industry/

For my humble perspective, I think that this would make many in the industry argue very hard against income inequality. It may be nice to sell million dollar cruising boats, but how many can afford them? I'd like to own a cruising yacht, but can't buy one without putting all of my house equity and retirement savings into a boat. This trickles down all across the marine industry - fewer keels means fewer radar sets, sails, local canvas shops, and all the other specialty businesses that depend on boaters. As they say, the millionaire still buys the same number of pants as the hourly worker.

[ramblinrod]

We have already been there for a long, long time.

Most boomers who have done well with their investments, have been moving to larger and larger yachts all along.

The post boomers have been picking up their scraps since the 80's.

[ramblinrod]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Thanks Gord. Are you saying that in a span of three years the show went from dominate sail to dominate power? What happened between 1984 and 87 that would cause this sudden shift?

I’ve been attending the boat show since the early 00’s, and in my estimation the (small) floor space dedicated to sail hasn’t noticeably changed over that time.

I haven't done actual counts, but here are my guesses based on recollections.

Disregarding sailing dinghies, whose number never seem to change...

When we started attending TIBS in 1996 there would be about 6 trailer sailers in the 20 - 26 ft range, another 10 keel boats in the 26 to 32 range, 10 in the 32 to 38 range, and 2 or 3 in the 38+ range.

This year, there were no 20 to 26 ft cruising trailerables, 2 under 32 feet, 2 more under 38, and 4 above 38 ft.

I believe part of the reason is:

A) Few families can afford a new boat, nor would have the time to sail it even if they could.

B) People can learn much of what they used to go to the show for, via the interent.

C) The damage, wear and tear caused to boats at the show by the 1000's and 1000s that climb all over them and don't have a hope of every buying one.

D) Sales of new boats to the middle class are way, way, down.

[Tetepare]

Certainly, we're seeing a glut of 70s and 80s boats on the market in our area of the Great Lakes. There is ONE sailing couple under 50 in our marina. ONE. The Boomers are aging fast, typically having to abandon the (sail)boats at a rate of about two per year.



Few of these boats remain in New York, due to a dismal economy.


In most cases (and as previously stated) as the Boomers aged they couldn't care for the boats the way they did, and the boats show it. In fact, most 70s and 80s boats have never had hardware rebedded, and as a result the deck core is saturated and the interior is damaged. So while there is a glut of used sailboats, as I search for the right one I find that they are all crap.


Daysailing is about dead, so Catalina 22s and 27s are dirt cheap, even free. The "middle income" folks aren't into sailing, and if they are they spend their money on winter charters in the Carib, not on high maintenance boats.



Clearly, urban areas are still doing well, as indicated by the number of large, and expensive, catamarans that are procured by novices.


For those looking for a used sailboat, the inventory will increase in the coming years- but the boats won't be in very good condition. There will be exceptions, so let's ward that off right here, but by and large the tired boats will only be more tired- just look at the abandoned boats at boatyards, the numbers are increasing.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by John_Trusty

A pertinent article found in Sailing Scuttlebutt by Paulo Pernão on Boot Dusseldorf seems to echo the trends noted above - larger, more expensive, retirees, more coastal, etc. :
https://www.sailingscuttlebutt.com/2...acht-industry/

Echoes what I’ve been saying for a while now, so naturally I think it’s a good article .

Originally Posted by John_Trusty

For my humble perspective, I think that this would make many in the industry argue very hard against income inequality. It may be nice to sell million dollar cruising boats, but how many can afford them? I'd like to own a cruising yacht, but can't buy one without putting all of my house equity and retirement savings into a boat. This trickles down all across the marine industry - fewer keels means fewer radar sets, sails, local canvas shops, and all the other specialty businesses that depend on boaters. As they say, the millionaire still buys the same number of pants as the hourly worker.

True, but not many people — even the uber-rich and big corporations — argue FOR income inequality. It’s the systemic problems of capitalism (in it’s current form) and social choices around how wealth is distributed that is the real problem. It’s a bit like the challenge of anthropogenic climate change. No one is singly to blame, but collectively we create a massive systemic problem that is hard to fix.

[Davy J]

As they say, the millionaire still buys the same number of pants as the hourly worker.

This, in my opinion, is exactly where the boat manufacturers are.........

Why produce $20.00 Levis when you can produce an $800.00 suit.

Takes about the same amount of effort, and you need to produce a lot less.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by John_Trusty

A pertinent article found in Sailing Scuttlebutt by Paulo Pernão on Boot Dusseldorf seems to echo the trends noted above - larger, more expensive, retirees, more coastal, etc. :
https://www.sailingscuttlebutt.com/2019/02/03/taking-pulse-yacht-industry/

from the article:

And cruising sailboats are becoming less and less sailboats and more and more second houses that can be moved around and that can also sail.
They are used for sailing almost exclusively coastally, downwind or on a beam reach and never on demanding conditions and therefore sailboat design follows the trend: the engines have become bigger, money is saved on sailing hardware and on designing boats with low B/D, because that will only be needed to sail upwind or to sail in demanding conditions.

... yikes. So if we want a larger boat that still sails worth a darn, we need to find it soon...

[rsn48]

In the expensive cities, Vancouver BC right at the top of the list, homes - fixer uppers - go for 1 million +, sadly I don't exaggerate. Vancouver has been a sailboat mecca for many a decade but the millenniums are busy trying to pay the mortgage on their new (used) homes. We sold our home in North Vancouver for 1.3 million and that was an average price for an average home, nothing spectacular - no mansion. I met one set of parents of the purchasers and when I asked how they could afford it, the answer was typical for our area - with the help of the Bank of Mom and Dad, assistance for the down payment.

So how many of those folks do you think are going to be purchasing a boat at the up and coming boat show beginning on the 6th of February - 2019? There was an article talking about trends with millenniums and in part it was observed they are less likely to purchase big ticket items, like homes and cars and recreational items. The millenniums in Vancouver and Victoria can't afford expensive toys given the cost of ownership and the price of rentals in these areas. Eventually they will be able to afford great toys, but not for at least 20 years when their family has grown up.

[John_Trusty]

Originally Posted by Davy J

This, in my opinion, is exactly where the boat manufacturers are.........

Why produce $20.00 Levis when you can produce an $800.00 suit.

Takes about the same amount of effort, and you need to produce a lot less.

I think the reason for the quote is not the price but the volume difference. If you sell pants, you can make a larger profit selling thousands of pairs of $20 Levis with a 10% profit, rather than one pair of $800 pants for a 50% profit. "Sell to the masses, dine with the classes". As Mike O'Reilly points out, there are systematic problems at work that are killing many types of activities for the Millennial generation (born after 1980's).

Some of those problems in the US and Canada are lack of time and capital as the logical extreme of capitalism - more wealth for holders of capital, less for workers. Unfortunately for people in the marine industry, holders of capital do not buy boats. As an apocryphal conversation between Henry Ford II and a union president put it as they oversaw an automated assembly line
(https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/1...ts-buy-cars/): “How Will You Get Robots to Buy Cars?”

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Thanks Gord. Are you saying that in a span of three years the show went from dominate sail to dominate power? What happened between 1984 and 87 that would cause this sudden shift? ...

Bankruptcy!
A short (incomplete) list of once profitable Canadian Sailboat builders, now gone. Who’s left to exhibit. Notice the closure dates.
Aloha Yachts (1973 - Mid 1980's)
C&C Yachts (1969 - 1995)
CS - Canadian Sailcraft (1962 - 1992)
Cooper Yachts (1970 - 1990)
Paceship Yachts (1962 - 1981)
Hughes Boat Works (1963 - 1991)
Hinterhoeller Yachts (1977 to 1994)
Tanzer Industries (1966 - 1986)
Mirage Yachts (1972 - 1989)
Ontario Yachts (1961 - Early 1980s then thru 2018 as a boat repairer)
Challenger Yachts (1969 - 1980)
Whitby Boat Works Ltd (1960 - 1988)

See also “A Retrospective of the Sailboat Market in Central Canada”
➥ Retrospective of the Sailboat Market in Canada

FWIW: "Southbound" our former C&C29 was purchased as the 1984 (Toronto) show boat.
No sudden shift to power (1984 to '87), just a random group of photos from the TO Public Library archives.

[Davy J]

I think the reason for the quote is not the price but the volume difference.

That's actually part of the problem, there isn't a market for "volume". Not only are the boat builders competing with each other, they are competing with 40 years of used boats that are ,at least, right now still usable

That's why I think, over time, the market for used boats will become more expensive and not the other way around.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Bankruptcy!
A short (incomplete) list of once profitable Canadian Sailboat builders, now gone. Who’s left to exhibit. Notice the closure dates….

Thanks Gord. When you stack up that list it really brings home the massive decline in the Canadian industry. Such a shame…

Originally Posted by John_Trusty

...Some of those problems in the US and Canada are lack of time and capital as the logical extreme of capitalism - more wealth for holders of capital, less for workers. Unfortunately for people in the marine industry, holders of capital do not buy boats. As an apocryphal conversation between Henry Ford II and a union president put it as they oversaw an automated assembly line
(https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/1...ts-buy-cars/): “How Will You Get Robots to Buy Cars?”

So true. Ford was right…

I’ve been saying for a while now that we are heading into a jobless economy. It’s what is putting wind in the sails of the whole Guaranteed Income discussion now. We are rapidly moving into an economy that doesn’t need workers.

But capitalism still needs consumers. And people still need to eat, to be sheltered, and to do interesting things with their time. This is why we need to dissociate work from access to resources (wealth distribution).

[Davy J]

To put it another way, seven years from now, trying to find a used boat, for sale, that is less than five years old will probably be difficult. There just isn't that many being produced.

Even now, try to find a 30-32 footer for sale, that is less than five years old. Not many available. Hell, not many new ones either........

As the hey day years of boat production becomes more landfill, the available used boats will also decline.