Will there be a glut of boats for sale once Baby Boomers retire from boating?

[Mike OReilly]

Ex, I agree the reasons are more complex than simple economics. I’ve even written so a few times. Interests change, and activities that were once of interest to people give way to others. But one can't ignore the fundamental economic changes that have happened to the middle class in most developed countries.

Productivity gains are one of the measurable factors in charting all this. As we know, mostly what this means is fewer people doing more work. And I completely agree that the main drivers of this increased productivity is globalization and automation. All of this contributes to a stagnant and declining middle class, although there are lots of other reasons as well.

But perhaps an even more significant development is the vastly decreased security that an increasing number of workers experience. It’s not just that wages have stagnated or reduced, but that a growing number of people work with with little security and few guarantees of income over the long term.

Jobs are being converted to contracts, hence the rise of the so-called “gig economy.” Unions are all but destroyed in the USA. And long-term security around healthcare and pensions are eroding. So it’s not just that people are financially poorer, they also have far less certain futures.

A cruising level boat, even a cheap older one, is still a costly item. As we all know, it costs serious bucks to maintain and keep a boat. So capital upfront cost is not the main driving force.

None of this is “partisan.” It’s basic economics and psychology. And I certainly was not blaming Trump in any way. I was saying he has rightly identified these economic and psychological factors, and this helped him get elected.

[LF4]

Originally Posted by Joe Deepwater

I found the brochure. Miami Yacht Show "Sail away pricing": Powercats: 2019 Leopard 43PC with 22 foot beam is $599K

51PC with 25 foot beam is $879K.

For the sailors: 2019 new Leopard 40 is $509K, 45 is a$699K, 50 is $1,049K.


I'm not familiar with the prices of sailboats, but the room on the 51 Powercat is probably equivalent to the room on a 65-70 foot yacht, which would cost double that price as new.

Ahhh, okay. We had conflicting ideas of what comparable boats are from CATs to MONOs. I was thinking of it in terms of PRICE and LENGTH, not living space available.

For example I was thinking about a $600,000 Mono vs a $600,000 Cat. This of course meaning they were selling power cats for $300,000.

Or a 40ft Mono vs a 40ft Cat...with the power Cat selling at half of the price of the mono.

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

I don’t disagree with your observation, just your ascribed cause. They’re not interested b/c they can’t afford it. Just like they’re not interested in stable employment, jobs with good benefits, and defined pension plans … yup, not interested at all.

The economy has changed, and not for the better for the vast majority of middle class earners. There is a current turn around, but wages have not yet started to rise to any significant degree. Some people continue to do extremely well — most are not.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...mployment.html

This is what got Trump elected (that, and running against the worst possible opponent). I dearly hope things start to turn around, but it hasn’t yet. Not according to actual measurable data.

Not every old guy is a rich old guy, just as not every young person is a struggling, poor young person. I've met just as many poor old people who planned badly for retirement as I've met younger people who work hard and save.

But I have yet to meet more than a few younger people who have any interest in sailing or someday buying into the cruising lifestyle. They just want to try stuff... and then move on to something else. Whatever the latest entertainment fad happens to be. Learning to sail or actually cruising requires effort and time, two things most younger people aren't interested in placing into a single activity.

[Joe Deepwater]

Originally Posted by Stu Jackson

I'm sure you're aware of the Rules of this forum, are you not?


This is a totally uncalled for comment.


As Canadian Permanent Resident, I request you to cease and desist in this nonsense.

What an ignorant post. "How dare we offend almighty you" with words that disagree with what your brain finds acceptable? Really? We are witnessing the death of free speech. You might try supporting your point of view with logic and reason instead of arrogance. Boating and humanity would be better served by it.

[odonnellryan]

Originally Posted by Joe Deepwater

What an ignorant post. "How dare we offend almighty you" with words that disagree with what your brain finds acceptable? Really? We are witnessing the death of free speech. You might try supporting your point of view with logic and reason instead of arrogance. Boating and humanity would be better served by it.

People will go to any length to be outraged, it seems.

[ThaidUp]

A) Boomers are not "dying out". We're alive and well.
B) Prices are not dropping (yet) but average time on marketing is now 7-8 months.
C) Forget it if anyone things sailing will be passed along to the next generation in enough numbers to bolster the used boat market. NOTHING is. Not tennis, not baseball, not restoring old cars. The reason is simple. If you're 30 right now, you have 5,000 choices of how to spend your free time compared to the ~100 we boomers had then we were 30. Everything is fragmented. The guys who think their pristine PS40 is worth 300k will own those boats forever. As if any used sailboat is actually pristine.

[impulsive19]

hopefully when the polar ice melts you can find an abandoned old baby boomer boat and save your family - think Noah

[GordMay]

Greetings and welcome aboard the CF, impulsive.

[redneckrob]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

Learning to sail or actually cruising requires effort and time, two things most younger people aren't interested in placing into a single activity.

How many different "young people" do you interact with every day and how much of your day do you spend with them now versus when you were that age? Perhaps it's less the "kids these days" then it is the fact that we spend a lot more time around people our own age and simply don't have an accurate view of what folks outside our age demographic think or do?
Because your pejorative view that somehow younger people aren't interested in investing time and effort into an activity couldn't be further from the truth among the twenty-something age group folks who work for me, or those I mentor. Or the dozens and dozens I race against on Wed nights or see competing in dinghy racing with grueling travel schedules, to be specific to sailing. Stop by Annapolis for a week during the summer and just walk around Spa Creek talking to young folks, if you can catch them on their way to and from the water that is. Or not, just maybe don't speak ill of an entire generation again until you have?

[ronstory]

I'm late to the party, but here is one of better "So-what" analysis of what the vision of the "american dream" is and financial prosperity over time since 1940.

One of the metrics they used as measuring prosperity over 4 decades since 1940 was the chances of children making more than their parents over time. Spoiler: If you were born in 1940 you had a 92% chance of making more money than your parents. However, if you were born in 1980, it's 50/50.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/08/o...d-at-last.html

An interesting read, IMO.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by ronstory

I'm late to the party, but here is one of better "So-what" analysis of what the vision of the "american dream" is and financial prosperity over time since 1940.

One of the metrics they used as measuring prosperity over 4 decades since 1940 was the chances of children making more than their parents over time. Spoiler: If you were born in 1940 you had a 92% chance of making more money than your parents. However, if you were born in 1980, it's 50/50.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/08/o...d-at-last.html

An interesting read, IMO.

Another way to get at this is to look at measures of social mobility within a society. Here too it is showing that it is getting harder for people from one economic class to rise above their parents.

This effect is happening in almost all countries, not just in the United States, although it is ironic that the so-called "American Dream" is now more possible in many other OECD countries.

http://www.oecd.org/social/soc/Socia...inFindings.pdf

From the report: "As income inequality has increased since the 1990s, social mobility has stalled, meaning that fewer people at the bottom have moved up while the richest have largely kept their fortunes. This has severe social, economic and political consequences, according to a new OECD report."

[slug]

Sailing is dead

I was just talking to broker I know from a well known brokerage in the UK

They no longer seek sailboats to list ... only motorboats

[carlosproa]

I can only speak of my living experience in the US and doing business mainly in the Latinamerica and Western European countries.
Economies has micro cycles and macro cycles. We are at the beginning of the End for the latest empire (USA), as well as for changes is long believe of property ownership and upward mobility. During these changes there are plenty of opportunities for the savvy and risk takers. We might be going back to the late 1800 type of economy where jobs were shifted to the south, development kept in the north, and “middle class” people living paycheck to paycheck and unable or unwilling to own assets like a house. As for boating, we have already seen the shift of the market as the number of elite buyers increases while the traditional buyers decreases. Look at catamarans, there is enough high end buyers in the market to shift production mix into the 50+ft fleet, with the consequence of forcing to eliminate less profitable models in the sub40ft range.

[ThaidUp]

I agree with those who have written about global economic trends and trends in the US, but I think much greater impact is coming from the simple fact that sailing recreationally is simply not as popular as it once was. Those who got into sailing when it was highly popular are getting older and, sadly, selling their boats. Whether the unemployment rate is 3.5 or 6.5 has far less to do with it.

[slug]

Originally Posted by ThaidUp

I agree with those who have written about global economic trends and trends in the US, but I think much greater impact is coming from the simple fact that sailing recreationally is simply not as popular as it once was. Those who got into sailing when it was highly popular are getting older and, sadly, selling their boats. Whether the unemployment rate is 3.5 or 6.5 has far less to do with it.

Still plenty of boat sales

But it’s motorboats . A sailboat is a pain in the ass, you come down for the weekend , cast off and ... no wind.. so you motor around

I hear this story from my clients over and over