Will there be a glut of boats for sale once Baby Boomers retire from boating?

[Tillsbury]

Originally Posted by LF4

Just for the fun of it....Lets look at a typical family of 4 in their 30's that is in the top 10% of household income. I use the 30's because this is when many people of my generation start to settle down, have kids, buy the house, and tackle student debt.

Household income floor to get to the top decile: $160,000

after taxes, health care deductions, saving for company match in 401k, etc. it leaves us with about (if we are being generous): $8,300/month

Average mortgage is $313k borrowed at 4.6% over 30 years (including average taxes and insurance costs): $1,700/month

Average student loan debt x2 is $64,000 @ 6% over 10 years: $710/month

Childcare for two children is about $26,000 a year on average = $2,167/month

Average car loan x 2 = $958/month

Average cost of food for family of 4: $909/month

Average Utilities costs: $402/month

Let's leave out things like the arts, credit card debt that averages about $7,000 a month carried at 17%, vacations, savings for emergencies, repairs & maintenance, beauty & hair, all of those little extras. Heck, we didn't even include car insurance because it's not required in every state.

We started with $8,300 a month in disposable income and end up with $1,454 dollars of disposable income. Of course, this isn't one size fits all. Perhaps someone had a scholarship for a degree or their parents paid their way. Perhaps they were gifted a car or decided to buy a used one (we have a used car...and only one car.). Maybe they use flip phones, no cable other than internet, and live in a less expensive 900sqft home. These are all choices that can be made, but they are not what the average person is dealing with.

At the end of the day, if families of four in the top 10% of income are walking around with ~1,454 a month in disposable income, they will not be able to afford a new SAILBOAT. The cost of mooring, maintaining, and the monthly payment won't allow for it.

Anyone this bad at financial management isn't going to be buying a boat anytime soon. Credit card balance outstanding? 17% interest? Buying not one but two cars they can't afford? Having two kids but needing full-time childcare and deciding that buying a boat is a priority? Your fictional couple have an income around $8k/month and necessary costs of $3k/month (plus student debt perhaps, depending on how that works). That's a very luxurious position to be in, and enables some very significant saving towards a starter boat certainly. In my experience, lots of people either buy a crummy second-hand boat to start with, or do one up, or charter, or buy in a syndicate, until a windfall such as a significant bonus, private company, or inheritance gives them a six-figure sum that they decide is to go on the boat rather than pay off part of the mortgage.

No-one was ever expecting a middle-middle-class family with a pile of debts from mortgages to car loans to student debts to be able to suddenly pony up for a great big shiny new sailing boat. They didn't used to do that at any point in the 20th century so it seems silly to believe they would now.

[senormechanico]

Doesn't anyone buy used cars any more?
We own two cars, one was purchased new in 2000.
The other is a 2001 which I purchased used, and saved from the grave.
All by myself just for the fun of it.

[Joe Deepwater]

Originally Posted by Chotu

How much were these??

I found the brochure. Miami Yacht Show "Sail away pricing": Powercats: 2019 Leopard 43PC with 22 foot beam is $599K

51PC with 25 foot beam is $879K.

For the sailors: 2019 new Leopard 40 is $509K, 45 is a$699K, 50 is $1,049K.


I'm not familiar with the prices of sailboats, but the room on the 51 Powercat is probably equivalent to the room on a 65-70 foot yacht, which would cost double that price as new.

[odonnellryan]

For what it is worth, I'm 27 and I'm on my second boat. Younger people do buy boats and have a lot of fun sailing.

We find it extremely expensive, even though I split the costs with my friend 50/50. It is OK but we make good money and it's still very expensive (not the boat of course, but gear that we want and/or need).

I do all the work on the boat, but everyone here knows how things add up.

I would not be able to afford it on my own, even though I do live in the 700 sqft house with 2 roommates, no credit cards, no car payment, etc.

...cost of living is high.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by odonnellryan

For what it is worth, I'm 27 and I'm on my second boat. Younger people do buy boats and have a lot of fun sailing.

We find it extremely expensive, even though I split the costs with my friend 50/50. It is OK but we make good money and it's still very expensive (not the boat of course, but gear that we want and/or need).

I do all the work on the boat, but everyone here knows how things add up.

I would not be able to afford it on my own, even though I do live in the 700 sqft house with 2 roommates, no credit cards, no car payment, etc.

...cost of living is high.

Owning a boat was always expensive.


I bought my first boat with a friend of mine when I was in my mid-twenties.

[Tillsbury]

It's a great way to get started. My first boat was a third share in a 1970s Dufour 28 when one of the original owners got too old to sail it often -- I bought in with him and the other owner (a friend of mine), and we went sailing. Very cheap way to get started. Did a great deal of chartering lots of different boats with random individuals met online through the 80s. Back when the Internet was mostly intelligent people.

[odonnellryan]

Yes, didn't mean to imply at one point things were cheaper. Maybe nowadays people feel the need to have more advanced equipment - certainly we have several thousand dollars into electronics, batteries, etc - but you get a lot of value out of that. Maybe not something that would have been purchased for every boat 30+ years ago.

Just like people didn't pay for cell phone service 50 years ago. But, that bill brings a lot of value for most people. Same kinda deal. Cars cost more, but are safer and bring more value... last longer, etc.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

Attend a boat show and see for yourself.... the attendance is old, a bunch of old guys and very few women. Younger people are simply not interested in grandpa’s hobbies like boating. I was at the New England show last week. Thousands of old guys looking at booths and boats populated by more old guys.

I don’t disagree with your observation, just your ascribed cause. They’re not interested b/c they can’t afford it. Just like they’re not interested in stable employment, jobs with good benefits, and defined pension plans … yup, not interested at all.

The economy has changed, and not for the better for the vast majority of middle class earners. There is a current turn around, but wages have not yet started to rise to any significant degree. Some people continue to do extremely well — most are not.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...mployment.html

This is what got Trump elected (that, and running against the worst possible opponent). I dearly hope things start to turn around, but it hasn’t yet. Not according to actual measurable data.

[Joe Deepwater]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

Globalization has been great unless your trying to make a living.

Makers versus Takers in the name of Population Control: Promote materialism and high taxes and you get those who Make the money wanting to keep more of their earnings to buy more materialism, versus the Takers who want more money via entitlement programs to buy more materialism because the media says it's romantic to save the poor and they are entitled to it. Hopes, wishes, and emotions to help the poor are romantic, but forcing innocent taxpayers to pay for these benefits, not so much. Both sides decide kids are too expensive so they have less kids. The indigenous populations decline in these modern countries like the US and Europe, progressive thinkers are happy to be saving earth from overpopulation, money is redistributed to poorer nations so they can become materialistic and get on birth control too, and both sides run to the polls to blame each other for not being able to afford more materialism. It's the final solution, except it's too shallow and unfulfilling for the human soul.

Religion and Family was the "old" romantic and deep existence (circum 1980 may have been the peak IMO) but that level of romanticism and depth leads to too much true love, too many babies being born, and no final solution, other than jokes about creating a space patrol and possibly finding another planet to populate. So, progressive thinkers had to kill that way of life and redirect it elsewhere, but this "new" direction is too shallow, unfulfilling, and lonely, and people can sense it. Hence, the yearning to return to true romance, aka, MAGA.

[Matt Johnson]

I'm on the upper end of millenial, but still qualify (born in 82). * Background is the first three paragraphs and fourth start the reason for this post.

We bought our first sailboat in 2008- a 1998 Hunter 240. We originally bought it on a whim when we found we were just using our weekends to sit at home and watch tv. Our list of options to fill that weekend void were: cabin in the woods, second home on a lake (which would have to be too far away to be affordable) or power boat so we could get a lakefront cottage in an area that we couldn't afford land property.

It wasn't until we had investigated the other options that we threw a sailboat into the mix. We had never been on one, but it sounded kind of cool and romantic.

We came to this decision on a Sunday and bought the first one we looked at on Monday. Having not been on one before, we bought a smaller, lower priced boat to see if we liked it. The reason for this particular boat was to get as new as we could for lower maintenance and maybe a higher resale when we move up.

When we told our friends we bought a boat, their thoughts went straight to water skiing, tubing and whipping around lakes. That excitement was quickly destroyed when we started to describe our purchase.

We gave invitations to everyone we knew to come out and sail with us on Lake Michigan whenever they wanted; we even tempered them with free booze and food, but only a few took us up on this... and only two came back a second time. While they all said it was beautiful and relaxing sailing on the big lake, the most common complaint was that it was too slow and too boring to waste a weekend. Instead, they'd just want to met us at a beach where they could drive to and we could sail.

This reaction happened not only with people our age, but our parents and coworkers from the baby boom/ gen-x era. Like everyone in Michigan, they all had small powerboat/jetski experience so it wasn't a fear of the water.

Unless you grew-up in a family with a sailing history, lived in an area where it is as common as driving, or dream of the freedom a sailboat brings, few are going to jump over the hurdles to own this type of boat. I hate to agree with pretty much anything Ken ever says , but there really are too many choices for entertainment and too much of a requirement for constant stimulation (all generation seem to require this nowadays) now to make sailing ever a popular pastime.


Matt

[Sailor 99]

Originally Posted by Joe Deepwater

Makers versus Takers in the name of Population Control: Promote materialism and high taxes and you get those who Make the money wanting to keep more of their earnings to buy more materialism, versus the Takers who want more money via entitlement programs to buy more materialism because the media says it's romantic to save the poor and they are entitled to it. Hopes, wishes, and emotions to help the poor are romantic, but forcing innocent taxpayers to pay for these benefits, not so much. Both sides decide kids are too expensive so they have less kids. The indigenous populations decline in these modern countries like the US and Europe, progressive thinkers are happy to be saving earth from overpopulation, money is redistributed to poorer nations so they can become materialistic and get on birth control too, and both sides run to the polls to blame each other for not being able to afford more materialism. It's the final solution, except it's too shallow and unfulfilling for the human soul.

Religion and Family was the "old" romantic and deep existence (circum 1980 may have been the peak IMO) but that level of romanticism and depth leads to too much true love, too many babies being born, and no final solution, other than jokes about creating a space patrol and possibly finding another planet to populate. So, progressive thinkers had to kill that way of life and redirect it elsewhere, but this "new" direction is too shallow, unfulfilling, and lonely, and people can sense it. Hence, the yearning to return to true romance, aka, MAGA.

Huh? Huh?

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Exile

True, but even if you do the majority of the work yourself it still takes money, and for many time IS money. Between work & family, many younger working people can't afford the time or the money...

Indeed.
When I was working the trade (boat repair), many/most of my customers were earning as much or more per hour, than they were paying me.
Even had they been able to perform the work, as well and as quickly as I, DIY would have been a poor use of their time.
My services were usually an expensive “necessity” for those other customers, earning less, and unable to perform the work.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by funjohnson

The Morgan's Cloud was a 40ft boat for $200,000, not $100,000 as posted.

You are correct Matt, my mistake. Thanks for the correction. I lost track whether this project came to anything. Quite remarkable if it could really be done for $200K. Also nice to see a no-frills boat being built with an emphasis on more of the "old-school" priorities geared more towards long-distance passagemaking as opposed to creature comforts & dockside bling.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

I don’t disagree with your observation, just your ascribed cause. They’re not interested b/c they can’t afford it. Just like they’re not interested in stable employment, jobs with good benefits, and defined pension plans … yup, not interested at all.

The economy has changed, and not for the better for the vast majority of middle class earners. There is a current turn around, but wages have not yet started to rise to any significant degree. Some people continue to do extremely well — most are not.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...mployment.html

This is what got Trump elected (that, and running against the worst possible opponent). I dearly hope things start to turn around, but it hasn’t yet. Not according to actual measurable data.

Some people don't have the money to buy a boat (and neither did their parents), but a lot of people aren't interested at any level. There are plenty of affordable boats rotting away in marinas.

This is more the problem than your political perspective. It must be really easy when you have a one-size-fits-all partisan view, but the reality is that The Unites States had a boom after world war II that was easy to sustain because it had the only operational means of mass production.

With globalization (which wasn't invented by Trump, by the way), other countries benefit, and our jobs have shifted from production to a low-paying service economy.

Trump has many faults, but the current state of our economy isn't because of him.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

I don’t disagree with your observation, just your ascribed cause. They’re not interested b/c they can’t afford it. Just like they’re not interested in stable employment, jobs with good benefits, and defined pension plans … yup, not interested at all.

The economy has changed, and not for the better for the vast majority of middle class earners. There is a current turn around, but wages have not yet started to rise to any significant degree. Some people continue to do extremely well — most are not.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...mployment.html

This is what got Trump elected (that, and running against the worst possible opponent). I dearly hope things start to turn around, but it hasn’t yet. Not according to actual measurable data.

I agree the economy has changed, but in many respects it's changed in the same ways it always has. The linked article basically confirms what we've been hearing from a wide consensus of economists, namely the reason we're not seeing wage inflation -- despite historically low unemployment -- is mainly attributable to increased productivity. In other words, more innovation and efficiency, i.e. technology, is replacing lower skilled human labor. Nowadays, a skilled tradesman with a high school diploma or less may have more earning power than a millennial with a liberal arts college degree. Yet society seems to encourage the latter at the expense of the former.

But I don't think it's only economics which is affecting the market for used boats. I have no measurable data, only observation and anecdote, but there doesn't seem to be the same level of interest that there was in previous generations. The millennials who have chimed in have obviously made choices to give up more typical and often more comfortable lifestyles in order to pursue a life on the water. Again, nothing new. Most of the (mostly) older and (fewer) younger people I see living and traveling onboard full-time don't appear all that wealthy. Instead, they have given up their homes or otherwise dispensed with other aspects of their previous lives on land to make a life on the water possible. They have older boats and do most of their own work. Some have a more technical background, but all have mostly learned along the way. Yet, in the case of older people, I often hear how their children & grandchildren have no interest in joining, even for daysails or weekend outings. If only economics & affordability were in play, then we wouldn't also be seeing the same phenomena when it comes to motorcycles, for e.g. Unlike boats, many can afford inexpensive mx's, yet the market is similarly soft.

So are younger, middle-class people that hard pressed financially, or is it more about a preference for new leased or financed cars that don't require as much work to keep running and are simply replaced every few years? Or does being raised in more of a virtual world of computers & devices quell the enthusiasm for real world adventure? Has a world filled with the addiction of online gaming in indoor, climate controlled environments replaced the outside world of adventure, with all of its uncertainties, discomforts, risks and rewards?