Hurricane Predictions and 5G...Concerning

[GordMay]

The International Telecommunication Union’s (ITU) “World Radiocommunication Conference” will convene in Egypt, in October and November, to hammer out 5G rules (what bandwidths to set aside for 5G and how much signals can spill over into adjacent bands)
countries will share proposals for noise thresholds, or how much interference to allow.
A joint NASA/NOAA study had suggested that any noise should be limited to –50 decibel watts (dBW); the Europeans, for example, recently defined their noise threshold at –56 dBW. The FCC auction, however, allowed –20 dBW of noise, a significantly higher level (nearly 4,000 times less stringent than the EU), especially given its measure on a logarithmic scale.

Auction 102 of 24GHz licenses -- offered licenses across the country, including in most major cities, and generated a total of around $2 billion in winning bids.
AT&T led the way with total bids of $982 million in the 24GHz auction, buying 49% of all the available licenses. T-Mobile was the second-place bidder in the 24GHz auction with $803 million in total bids, giving the company 40% of all the available licenses.

[Michael Cobbe]

We sailed in the Caribbean for six years and NOAA's forecasts were acurate. One year there were the highest nunber of hurricanes, the highest number of at Cat5s anda hurricane in January.

[GordMay]

[Scubableu]

Originally Posted by Sailing Ohm

Yeah that’s not right at all...in fact it’s been the opposite. For the majority of storms, I’ve noticed the next day measured wind speeds have actually been greater than what was forecasted the previous and that trend continued for most of the storms life.

And not ever low pressure system has been called a hurricane, only those with wind speed greater than 64knots.

I was hoping for a serious discussion with any other informed weather nerds out there not a antigovernment probably semi-veiled political rant.

---- I live in Louisiana and at this moment Zeta will be passing 50 miles (center track) to our east. This is the SEVENTH time this year my home has been in the "CONE OF UNCERTAINTY". To say the least we pay close attention to the forecast errors. The point of land for the last two storms in SW Louisiana (two days out) was less than 15 miles combined. I do not like the early naming of storms but this is more a issue with Insurance companies political clout (6% of value with a named storm deductible) than a forecast issue.

[roland stockham]

Interesting thread, when you find the real info, Checked the latest coverage map and it seams at least some US cities are using the band width that can cause an issue. I would suggest that the high noise signals which are only now being rolled out and in a very small number of local areas in the USA does not explain any perceived forecast errors from this summer. Most of the relevant data for hurricanes is collected over open ocean so much to far away to be effected. Since Europe has already adopted the tighter standard for noise my guess is that this will be set as the world standard and the USA will have to bring their regs into line to be in a competitive position as 5g gains traction world wide. That would seam to be the simplest and most logical solution. Early adoption is always a risk! Also because of the range issue I suspect the high bandwidth is only ever going to be relevant in large cities so will always be a very limited coverage though the 'hotspots' may have an impact. Climate change still seams to be the most significant factor affecting storm patterns and that is likely going to continue to get more unpredictable.

[cpisz]

As an electrical engineer working on 5G I see both truths and falsehoods in the articles related to 5G interference with the weather forecasting. The signals at those high frequencies do not propagate well. They have a range of 100-200 meters before they disappear into the background noise. Also the signals are beam formed. That is they are directed and not transmitted on a simple dipole antenna. However the satellites are measuring such small differences that I can understand the concern. The filters are those frequencies are hard to get sharp and there will be leakage of the transmitters into the 23.8Ghz frequency. But do to the poor propagation this you only be a problem directly over major cities. The 24Ghz frequencies will only be deployed in population dense areas. So this is unlikely to effect hurricane forecasting that is hundreds of miles offshore. I do not claim to be an expert on these forecasting system however.

[Sailing Ohm]

2-3 days ago hurricane Zeta was predicted at having max 75mph winds. Currently it is at 110
The CONUS ridge, that was supposed to degraded zeta didn’t show up and/or it wasn’t as strong as they thought it was....what caused that prediction failure. A ridge is usually pretty well seen and measured I thought.

I also think an accurate prediction of wind speeds, rather than location is a better goal to aim for. We all know a hurricane will effect hundreds of miles but there is a big difference between a sustained of 70 and one of 110

[Sailing Ohm]

Originally Posted by cpisz

As an electrical engineer working on 5G I see both truths and falsehoods in the articles related to 5G interference with the weather forecasting. The signals at those high frequencies do not propagate well. They have a range of 100-200 meters before they disappear into the background noise. Also the signals are beam formed. That is they are directed and not transmitted on a simple dipole antenna. However the satellites are measuring such small differences that I can understand the concern. The filters are those frequencies are hard to get sharp and there will be leakage of the transmitters into the 23.8Ghz frequency. But do to the poor propagation this you only be a problem directly over major cities. The 24Ghz frequencies will only be deployed in population dense areas. So this is unlikely to effect hurricane forecasting that is hundreds of miles offshore. I do not claim to be an expert on these forecasting system however.

That’s good info.... any possibility you could see that the 24ghz frequency could be moved (or maybe is already) into LEO satellites? This might have a greater effect but I’m not sure.
If these frequencies are such short range it seems odd to me that both NOAA and NASA scientists have issue with it. Again I assume both NASA and NOAA have peoples best interests in mind. Really outside of Soviet Russia who have either of these organizations actively tried to defeat?

[capn_billl]

Oh no, his crayon mark went across the middle of my hunting lease. Oddly though they still built the wall in the right spot.

[GordMay]

Minute changes in initial data input (ie: moisture), can cause huge changes in model output (prediction).

In 1960, the American mathematician and meteorologist Edward Norton Lorenz, was working on a mathematical model for predicting the weather. Lorenz was using a computer to iteratively solve 12 equations, that expressed relationships such as that between atmospheric pressure and wind speed.

Lorenz would input starting values for several variables into his computer, such as temperature, wind speed, and barometric pressure, on a given day, at a series of locations.

The model would then calculate weather changes, over a defined period of time. The model recalculated a single day's worth of weather changes, in single minute increments, and printed out the new parameters.
On one occasion, Lorenz decided to rerun a particular model scenario. Instead of starting from the beginning, which would have taken many hours, he decided to pick up in the middle of the run, consulting the printout of parameters, and re-entering these into his computer.

He then left his computer for the hour it would take to recalculate the model, expecting to return and find a weather pattern similar to the one predicted previously.
Unexpectedly, Lorenz found that the resulting weather prediction was completely different from the original pattern he observed.

What Lorenz did not realize, at the time, was that while his computer stored the numerical values of the model parameters to six significant figures (for example 0.639172), his printout, and thus the numbers he inputted when restarting the model, were rounded to three significant figures (0.639).

The difference between the two numbers is minute, representing a margin of systematic error less than 0.1% – less than one thousandth of the value of each parameter. However, with each iteration of his model (and there were thousands of iterations), this error was compounded, multiplying many times over, so that his end result was completely different from the first run of the model.

The error appeared to remain small, but after a few hundred iterations it grew exponentially, until reaching a magnitude equivalent to the value of the measurement itself (~0.6).
Lorenz published his observations in “Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow” (Lorenz, 1963).
His observations led him to conclude that accurate weather prediction, over a period of more than a few weeks, was extremely difficult – perhaps impossible – because even infinitesimally small errors in the measurement of natural conditions were compounded and quickly reached levels equal to the measurements themselves.

“Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow” ~ by Edward N. Lorenz
Abstract ➥ https://journals.ametsoc.org/jas/art...nperiodic-Flow

Full ➥ https://watermark.silverchair.com/15...ZL94mekvqweUYQ

[GreenWave]

This is much better explanation for less accurate forecasts this year than OP’s original angle...
https://flip.it/UYE-46

[Sailing Ohm]

Originally Posted by GreenWave

This is much better explanation for less accurate forecasts this year than OP’s original angle...
https://flip.it/UYE-46

Good article though the data they discuss and compare applies to the rapid refresh system modeling aka HRRR which is generally done over the continent or land and has a 3km range(not very helpful for a storm potentially hundreds of km wide) I think rather than use a million weather balloons and sondes (which yes they still do use) they started getting continental Upper level and jet stream data from airlines.

While this could very well play a role in this years accuracy, most hurricanes form and spend most of their time in areas with Virtually little to no commercial airplane traffic. So while it might have an impact I find it doubtful when it comes to directly measuring hurricanes.
Where this Airline data could come into play is the accurate measurement/prediction of upper/mid level CONUS jets, troughs and ridges and their potential impact on a hurricane and it’s development.

[Gerrycooper56]

Originally Posted by gonesail

inaccurate is one way of putting it. the NHC has routinely exaggerated wind speeds on every storm this year. in addition to naming every low pressure system in the Atlantic and calling it a hurricane. is this to prove to us sheep that hurricane seasons are getting worse?

I fully expect to see an ad on the NHC website - sponsored by Geico

[Lihuedooley77]

As bareboat sailors, we have been able to sail much of the Caribbean, but we stay totally clear of hurricane season. September Remember ( Usually the worst month).
We are usually down there in may to beginning of june.

As full time residents on Kauai Island , Hi, for 10 years, we had many, many, hurricanes marching across the pacific toward our island, and the whole Hawaiian Island chain.

We paid close attention to its path , wind speeds, and always, always planned on a direct hit. Yep, for 10 years, we could track the storm systems, and yet knew that the hurricane god will do what it wants to do , when it wants to do it.

Iniki several years ago , was predicted to stay well south of Kauai, and tracking its path looked like that was the case. But, just south of Kauai, Iniki hung a hard right turn, and hit kauai dead center, full force, with devastating effects and destruction.

We moved from the mainland, over to kauai a couple of years after Iniki .

So, for 10 years, as residents, , as the hurricanes came roaring toward the islands, we on Kauai always prepared for the worst and hoped for the best. There was no indifferent attitudes or slacking off.

We laid in lots of bottled water and T.P. plus extra provisions. We brought in all of the loungers and tables and anything loose out on the lanai. Topped of the car with fuel, and snugged it deep into the strong walled carport. We knew were our assigned hurricane shelter was located. Sometimes we taped our sliding glass doors.

Well, over the 10 years, those hurricanes went north of us, or South of us, or fizzed out or down graded due to wind shear, colder waters, or being ripped apart when hitting the tall mountains on the big island.

Did we get rain, and wind, and large surf, and some flooding ? Yep, sometimes , but
no direct hits. Thankful for that, but , as mentioned, we were prepared for the worst.

Point being, we kept up with the storms path, and intensity, and predicted paths, but sure enough, those monsters missed us, or became disorganized and lost their energy.

Regardless , we always prepared and stayed alert. We would work with what we had, and were well aware of the possible changing circumstances of the hurricanes ...thankfully, we did not experience another Iniki.

We are able to chose our Caribbean Sailing Vacation times. Others cruising or residing in those areas are at the mercy of mother natures wrath.

May you and yours remain safe.

[LouK]

There was a piece on NPR earlier this week which inferred the algorithms used by the NHC are having a difficult time accommodating increased sea temperatures. Hence, the hurricanes are picking up considerably more energy than predicted and thus, throwing off the landfall and wind speed predictions.

Personally, I amazed that a hurricane like Zeta can hit Texas on Wed an we get rain here in DC on Thursday & Friday....