Australia Fires

[RaymondR]

A couple of interesting items on TV last night.

A property owner in NSW who has spent two and one half years attempting to get approvals to put fire breaks around his rural property.

The extreme glee being expressed by the Greens that the wood chip mill at Eden was burned out with the loss of hundreds of local jobs. The mill consumed only plantation trees.

Police have so far charged 183 people with arson offenses in relation to the bush fires.

The penalties available for arson offenses extend to 25 years imprisonment. Hopefully some of our excessively liberal minded judiciary will find it in themselves to deliver more than just wrist slaps to some of these people.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by RaymondR

A couple of interesting items on TV last night.

A property owner in NSW who has spent two and one half years attempting to get approvals to put fire breaks around his rural property.

The extreme glee being expressed by the Greens that the wood chip mill at Eden was burned out with the loss of hundreds of local jobs. The mill consumed only plantation trees.

Police have so far charged 183 people with arson offenses in relation to the bush fires.

The penalties available for arson offenses extend to 25 years imprisonment. Hopefully some of our excessively liberal minded judiciary will find it in themselves to deliver more than just wrist slaps to some of these people.

Let me help you with that..

'NSW Police have taken legal action against 183 people so far this bushfire season, including charging 24 people with deliberately lighting bushfires.

Since November, police have also taken legal action against 53 people for failing to comply with a total fire ban and against 47 people for discarding a lighted cigarette or match on land.'

So that is 24 alleged arsonists, 53 d*ckheads, and 47 f*ckwits....

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw-...06-p53p97.html

Results of inquiries into past fires make interesting reading.

Australia's most deadly , 2009..... World's 9th most deadly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_...all_statistics
Scroll down to 'damage by locality'..
5 fires - the most deady - started by powerlines, 1 x lightning, 3 x unknown, 1 x machinery, 1 x spotting aka ember attack, 2 x arson, 1 x arson/lightning suspected.

Most historic major fires follow a similar pattern.. but yes arsonists do walk amongst us...

[RaymondR]

My apologies, I forgot that NSW is Australia. Next time I'll state it as Australia (NSW) and a number of other adjoining states etc.

With the media as it is these days I'm not vouching for the factuality of the report just that it occurred (I get a bit tired of the ABC proclaiming that everything is the result of climate change and switch to another channel occasionally)

I think it was about 170 or so people died in the 2009 black Friday fires (so much for unprecedented) but hey, let's not go overboard and start holding poor misunderstood pyromaniacs responsible for their action.

In today's newspapers.

There's an image of the entire continent aflame. Turns out it is a time lapse image recorded over a month.

"More than 407 bush fires have been set across NSW". But in the same article a university professor has stated that jail sentences does nothing to discourage pyromaniacs.

Yeah mate, separating perpetrators from their intended victims does not stop them re-offending.

Climate change has become the universal panacea for every individual or organization who or which needs to avoid accountability for their actions. Since the last ice age, and until the next, Australia has had hot dry summers and fire prone forests. I live on a boat. If I don't take care of hull integrity it will sink under me. Nothing to do with climate change. If you neglect the forests and build flammable structures in them both the forests and the structures will eventually catch fire and burn.

On my part it's not a lack of sympathy for those poor folks who have lost their lives or properties it's an ability to perceive that not everything which impacts the individual is someone else's fault.

One of mankinds greatest aspirational documents is the US Constitution. The statement at the beginning that "It is a self evident truth" was a work of pure genius - what sort of fool argues against "a self evident truth". Re-branding "global warming" as "climate change" in response to the warming hiatus could be described as genius (or low animal cunning) the damned climate changes all the time, it is a dynamic system and change is inherent in it's nature and only a fool would argue against it.

Fuel, oxygen, ignition - If you allow a big enough fuel supply to accumulate and ignite within a 20% oxygen atmosphere it it will burn and it does not matter whether the average temperature was two or three degrees warmer or cooler you are going to have a fire.

[GILow]

Interesting read, given the current discussion.

The bushfire lies spreading 'wildly' on social media
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-0...media/11846434

[El Pinguino]

Is this all down to climate change?....dunno... don't really think so... and that does not mean I am a change denier or sceptic...

If you combine the 2009 fires in Victoria - which I have already referenced - or maybe the 1939 fires - with the 1993/94 NSW fires https://webarchive.nla.gov.au/awa/20...thc/fire6.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_E...seaboard_fires

what you have is the 2019/20 fires...

So... we have been having fires like this since the coming of the white man... first big recorded fire in Victoria was 1851...

Lightning in the high country isn't a problem.... lightning in the high country when things are dry is the problem...

PS I have neither seen nor read any reference to arson in respect to the Victorian fires.

[GILow]

Going back to my mathematical interpretation, I feel like this is simply the usual cyclical stuff, but magnified by subtle input changes in the climate model.

Does that make it climate change or not? I suppose it depends on your interpretation.

[RaymondR]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

So... we have been having fires like this since the coming of the white man... first big recorded fire in Victoria was 1851...

Comments on extensive fires were common in the logs and journals of the early European explorers and the extensive open woodlands found here by the European settlers are believed to have been largely created by the use of fire by the original inhabitants as part of their hunter gathering activities.

We will always have bush fires whilst we have forests. What has happened is that we have neglected management of the forests largely because of the misguided policies of state governments in response to Greens political influence.

This was manifested in Queensland where, after a couple of hundred years of mistreatment, aboriginal people in the north finally managed to ger their hands on some of their traditional hunting grounds. A minority government of the left was formed with the support of the Greens and the wild rivers legislation was the result. An unintended consequence of this was that the land recovered by the aboriginal people was largely rendered useless for economic development.

The Regional Forest Agreement was supposed to settle the forest wars but one of the things the other political parties have learned is that any agreements with the Greens is to them just another slice of the salami.

There are a number of policies which would assist in dealing with the problem. The first is the re-establishment of property rights in Australia. It is in our national constitution that the Commonwealth cannot sequester any property without just compensation. This should be extended to the states. Another would be to place all forest areas on the table for renegotiation at any time any government wanted to exclude further forest areas as reserves of wanted to apply clearance restrictions.

We will always have bush fires but with good forest management they do not have to be so destructive.

Climate change and the activities of the federal government have nothing to do with the severity of the extant bush fires the excessive destructive problem is wholly a state government responsibility.

[CassidyNZ]

Three evenings ago we were in an anchorage near our home taking refuge from a relentless 30kn SW wind when at 16:30 the sky changed colour. Note this is an untouched picture.

A plume of smoke from NSW (Australia) blew in over New Zealand. Our decks got an imperceptible coating of ash, not enough to see but enough to leave light footprints when walking. We heard that streetlights in Auckland came on due to darkness, 4 hours ahead of schedule.

And we’re 1100nm from the nearest fires.

Three hours later the sky started to clear, totally normal by morning.

The extent of these fires is breathtaking, the toll on wildlife is monumentally tragic.

[Wotname]

It is easy to say "lock 'em up and throw way the key" with respect to arsonists but like most complex issues, they require complex solutions.

Disclaimer - I am not a bleeding heart liberal or a inner city latte sipper blowing the froth off my cappuccino.

Some arsonists should be put away for a long long time but one size doesn't fit all and thankfully we do have court systems that can discriminate between offenders when it comes sentencing.

Some random points to consider in relation to bushfire arson.

* a couple young teenage low ability lads playing with matches in the scrub - not seriously intending to burn out the local township but they screw the pooch. Do you throw them in detention until they 18 and then move them into jail for another 10 years. If so, IMO you have created some lifetime crims and they will be forever a menace to society. Is there another way to deal with this?

* a volunteer firefighter goes out to light a couple of scrub fires so he can be the first to respond and be a hero among his crewmates. Don't laugh, it happens regularly. Lock him up for 20 years? Maybe or maybe not, he isn't an evil person and yes he is d*^#head and needs to turned around. Give him a serious wake up call (fines/some jail time) and then get him back into the community under the wing of some seriously experienced firefighters and have him do real hard time front line work. More below.

* High ability (high IQ) arsonists need to put away for a long long time but guess what, the smart guys don't get caught very often. Unlike say a serial killer who is tracked down over the years, the serial high IQ arsonists get away with murder.

* A low IQ arsonist who most likely has serious mental health issues will be often be caught but then what. Should they be in jail forever or in some institution? The jails don't want them there forever and there are no mental health institutions for such people any more. They should not be let free to re-offend but who has the answer? Where is the money to deal with these people?

I know someone who worked in HR at a children's hospital. It was a huge effort to screen out potential pedophiles among applicants seeking low grade employment positions there. They are attracted to children hospitals like bees to honey. In the same manner, fire bugs are attracted to volunteer fire services. Most are OK if there is enough "action" to keep them sated but when things are slow...
Please note this is no disrespect to the other 99.99% of the volunteers who are there for honourable reasons.

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by CassidyNZ

A plume of smoke from NSW (Australia) blew in over New Zealand. Our decks got an imperceptible coating of ash, not enough to see but enough to leave light footprints when walking. We heard that streetlights in Auckland came on due to darkness, 4 hours ahead of schedule.

And we’re 1100nm from the nearest fires.

Seems like you have a good basis for a case against Aus for transboundary pollution crimes.

Only a few very nation-states are party to legal instruments on transboundary pollution.

So NZ would have to be creative to press Aus to remediate the tort.


Given that Potato-head, the Aus federal minister in charge of torturing NZ citizens who infract Aus laws, has not buckled on his preferred option of kicking out said NZ citizens with prejudice, it might be not be an easy thing.

You could just shanghai any random Aus you find on the street and make him/her/it wash your deck. Getting him/her/it to clean the snow and glaciers might be harder. But very much worth a try.

As an Aus, I'm prepared to sway Potato-head for, say, Ardern. Deal?

[JPA Cate]

@CassidyNZ,

We've had our share of ash and yellow decks. Every boat from Pittwater to Tassie has, as well. And it is only a minimal discomfort, when you think of the people who've lost their homes, and the dead animals, and animals who've lost their environment.

Sometimes life throws you hair balls.

Ann

[Wotname]

Forest management.

IMO, the singe biggest shortcomings of proper forest management has been the failure to maintain proper firebreaks and water sources. Locally in the southern Tassie state forests you can see the remnants of old firebreaks if you look closely but none of these have ever been maintained and they are useless as they are. The access roads are maintained but they are too small and far apart to be effectual as firebreaks. The water sources are simply lost in the bush. I have come across many small dams seemingly completely out of place but when looks carefully, you make out old overgrown tracks that used to link these water sources to old overgrown firebreaks.

I have a lot of sympathy for anyone who wants to carry Hazard Reduction Burns (HRB) or Fuel Load Reductions burns. It is a difficult thing to do.

Some points in no particular order.

* a HRB should only burn the understory and ground litter in a forest and it needs to be cool fire rather than a hot fire and never a crown fire.
* it needs to be contained.
* it needs to be extinguished.
* it needs to be dry enough to burn but not so dry that it becomes uncontrollable.
* the weather conditions are critical but can only be based on forecasts and we know how they inaccurate they can be.
*all land is controlled by someone - private landowners, state managed forests, leased forest areas, nation parks, crown land ect. One party can't step into another's area and yet all stakeholders can be affected and therefore have a say in the practice. Getting argreemnent can be time consuming yet the window of opportunity is often small / short lived.
*Smoke travels long distances and the effects have to be managed.



The weather (forecast) is the single biggest issue (IMO).

Ideally the moisture in the forest should be at the level that allows a fire to be ignited (and burn) with out wind and when the dew point is below the current temperature. When the temperature drops below the dew point in the afternoon, the fire will self extinguish. When does correctly by a expert, the result is amazing to watch. I have seen a brigade carrying out a HRB and standing around doing nothing. The boss says, the fire will start dying down at (say) 6pm (calculated by the forecast dew point). By 7pm the fire is almost out and after a couple of hours, the crew go home having not had to do anything to extinguish the fire. They were only there in case the wind came up.

Forecast winds - the bane of a HRB. As sailors, we know that forecast winds aren't always that accurate and the direction will vary by say +/- 20 degrees on a good day. In the mountain forests, it is way way more difficult. The terrain affects the wind much more than the sea and it far more unpredictable. The wind on a ridge or spur can be way different to the wind in the valley.

The wind follows the lay of the land so a forecast of say NW or say SW could mean the wind on the ridge will be NW or SW while in the valley there is no wind until it gusts up a bit on the ridge and then the valley wind will be from say the W only. This moves the fire in different direction depending on location and that location may be only 400m away. At other times, a wind change of say 20 degrees (aloft) can mean a 180 degree wind change in a valley while close by it doesn't change at all.

Here locally, a forecast of anywhere between NW to SW results in a W wind yet a forecast of SE means a SE wind and a forecast of S means (usually) a S wind but not always, it could be SE. 5Km away, it is different.

Its is easy to understand how some HRBs don't go according to plan If they fail to ignite properly, then is may be a week or month before the conditions are again suitable. If HRB gets out of hand, it can be difficult to control and people get upset!

Having aerial suppression support is an very expensive option and questions get asked why the money wasn't spent or if too much is spent.

This gets back to fire breaks. Good fire breaks and maintained water sources are the best friend to the HRB but mentioned at the start, these haven't been maintained.

It isn't always the greenies who are to blame for lack of HRBs.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Alan Mighty

..........
As an Aus, I'm prepared to sway Potato-head for, say, Ardern. Deal?

Ya drive a hard bargain! Here was I thinking maybe a two month on, 10 months off roster in favour of NZ.

They can Pete for 2 months and we Cindy for 2 months every year.

(I think).

[RaymondR]

Originally Posted by Wotname

It is easy to say "lock 'em up and throw way the key" with respect to arsonists but like most complex issues, they require complex solutions.

Disclaimer - I am not a bleeding heart liberal or a inner city latte sipper blowing the froth off my cappuccino.

Some arsonists should be put away for a long long time but one size doesn't fit all and thankfully we do have court systems that can discriminate between offenders when it comes sentencing.

Some random points to consider in relation to bushfire arson.

* a couple young teenage low ability lads playing with matches in the scrub - not seriously intending to burn out the local township but they screw the pooch. Do you throw them in detention until they 18 and then move them into jail for another 10 years. If so, IMO you have created some lifetime crims and they will be forever a menace to society. Is there another way to deal with this?

* a volunteer firefighter goes out to light a couple of scrub fires so he can be the first to respond and be a hero among his crewmates. Don't laugh, it happens regularly. Lock him up for 20 years? Maybe or maybe not, he isn't an evil person and yes he is d*^#head and needs to turned around. Give him a serious wake up call (fines/some jail time) and then get him back into the community under the wing of some seriously experienced firefighters and have him do real hard time front line work. More below.

* High ability (high IQ) arsonists need to put away for a long long time but guess what, the smart guys don't get caught very often. Unlike say a serial killer who is tracked down over the years, the serial high IQ arsonists get away with murder.

* A low IQ arsonist who most likely has serious mental health issues will be often be caught but then what. Should they be in jail forever or in some institution? The jails don't want them there forever and there are no mental health institutions for such people any more. They should not be let free to re-offend but who has the answer? Where is the money to deal with these people?

I know someone who worked in HR at a children's hospital. It was a huge effort to screen out potential pedophiles among applicants seeking low grade employment positions there. They are attracted to children hospitals like bees to honey. In the same manner, fire bugs are attracted to volunteer fire services. Most are OK if there is enough "action" to keep them sated but when things are slow...
Please note this is no disrespect to the other 99.99% of the volunteers who are there for honourable reasons.

If you're old enough you might remember the post card bandit.

Ran three or four state police forces ragged for a couple of years whilst they tried to catch him and got his name by sending them post cards. I don't think he ever hurt anyone but did make his living by robbing banks and suchlike.

He's been in gaol for about three decades and when he finishes in one state they move him to another. As far as I know he's still in gaol, his biggest crime was making fools out of them.

And you want to go light on pyromaniacs??

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by RaymondR

If you're old enough you might remember the post card bandit.

Ran three or four state police forces ragged for a couple of years whilst they tried to catch him and got his name by sending them post cards. I don't think he ever hurt anyone but did make his living by robbing banks and suchlike.

He's been in gaol for about three decades and when he finishes in one state they move him to another. As far as I know he's still in gaol, his biggest crime was making fools out of them.

And you want to go light on pyromaniacs??

Nope and I can't see how you deduced that from my post. I can see that not all pyromaniacs are the same.

Same as those who steal are not all the same. Think of the recent royal commission into the banking industry compared to someone shoplifting for food on a newstart allowance.

Off topic - I don't see many CEO's behind bars...