Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooling

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by StuM

Now that's some Baloney. First time I've heard this specific bit of alarmist nonsense.


Which boffins would they be? And what records would they be. Over what period?

There are four primary temperature data sets that I am aware of.

Even the most alarmist, adjusted one GISTEMP doesn't show anything of the sort:

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

and the more reliable satellite records show a far less alarming picture:

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs


Reference please?

Carl Mears at RSS uses the term "denialist" to describe those who misrepresent his data.

The Recent Slowing in the Rise of Global Temperatures

Authors: Carl Mears

Date Added: Monday, September 22, 2014

Recently, a number of articles in the mainstream press have pointed out that there appears to have been little or no change in globally averaged temperature over the last two decades. Because of this, we are getting a lot of questions along the lines of “I saw this plot on a denialist web site. Is this really your data?” While some of these reports have “cherry-picked” their end points to make their evidence seem even stronger, there is not much doubt that the rate of warming since the late 1990’s is less than that predicted by most of the IPCC AR5 simulations of historical climate. This can be seen in the RSS data, as well as most other temperature datasets. For example, the figure below is a plot of the temperature anomaly (departure from normal) of the lower troposphere over the past 35 years from the RSS “Temperature Lower Troposphere” (TLT) dataset. For this plot we have averaged over almost the entire globe, from 80S to 80N, and used the entire TLT dataset, starting from 1979. (The denialists really like to fit trends starting in 1997, so that the huge 1997-98 ENSO event is at the start of their time series, resulting in a linear fit with the smallest possible slope.)

The Recent Slowing in the Rise of Global Temperatures | Remote Sensing Systems

He is talking about you in that last sentence.

Have a look at the graph from RSS.



Notice that not one single data point from 1994 to the present is below the mean. When temperatures are above average there is warming.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

Baloney. Every year in the last five, at least, has been 'hottest on record' according to the boffins.

Sent from my SGP521 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by Foozinator

Some would argue that this is very relevant, even a primary motivation.

EDIT: I do apologize to newhaul for what was clearly insensitive to him, but I still disagree that future generations have nothing to do with this discussion.

No need to apologise for what you didn't have knowledge of. On another front I do believe inhelping pave the way for future generations of people. I did what iI could during the Regan / bush years

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by Going Walkabout

OK while they are talking about climate warming caused by C02 emissions, scientists are now warning about global cooling. And wait, thats not all. They are saying its because of the change in the activity from the Sun and not because of man made "pollution".

So now we are looking at Global Cooling I am so glad to be preparing for a life aboard a sailboat. I will be able to move to wherever the climate is most favorable and not stuck in some freezing part of the world. :big grin:

"If the World does get cold all over with some places turning to ice do we need to look at Arctic sailing preparations for our sailboats. Just thinking.
A team of European researchers have unveiled a scientific model showing that the Earth is likely to experience a “mini ice age” from 2030 to 2040 as a result of decreased solar activity.

Their findings will infuriate environmental campaigners who argue by 2030 we could be facing increased sea levels and flooding due to glacial melt at the poles.

Global warming 'is FAKE': Volume of ice caps is INCREASING, claims...
World will start COOLING DOWN in 2017, claims one of planet's top...

However, at the National Astronomy Meeting in Wales, Northumbria University professor Valentina Zharkova said fluctuations an 11-year cycle of solar activity the sun goes through would be responsible for a freeze, the like of which has not been experienced since the 1600s.

From 1645 to 1715 global temperatures dropped due to low solar activity so much that the planet experienced a 70-year ice age known as Maunder Minimum which saw the River Thames in London completely frozen."

From real solar scientists

The sun's activity is in free fall, according to a leading space physicist. But don't expect a little ice age. "Solar activity is declining very fast at the moment," Mike Lockwood, professor of space environmental physics at Reading University, UK, told New Scientist. "We estimate faster than at any time in the last 9300 years."
Lockwood and his colleagues are reassessing the chances of this decline continuing over decades to become the first "grand solar minimum" for four centuries. During a grand minimum the normal 11-year solar cycle is suppressed and the sun has virtually no sunspots for several decades. This summer should have seen a peak in the number of sunspots, but it didn't happen.

But Lockwood says we should not expect a new grand minimum to bring on a new little ice age.Human-induced global warming, he says, is already a more important force in global temperatures than even major solar cycles. "

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

More recently

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

Sarah Ineson, Amanda C. Maycock, Lesley J. Gray, Adam A. Scaife, Nick J. Dunstone, Jerald W. Harder, Jeff R. Knight, Mike Lockwood, James C. Manners & Richard A. Wood

Nature Communications 6, Article number: 7535 doi:10.1038/ncomms8535
Received 23 May 2014 Accepted 14 May 2015 Published 23 June 2015\

Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

+++++++++++++++++++++

From the scientist who presented at the National Astronomical Society.
“In the press release, we didn’t say anything about climate change,” Valentina Zharkova told USA TODAY. “My guess is when they heard about Maunder minimum, they used Wikipedia or something to find out more about it.”

+++++++++++++++++++++

The earth is losing a trillion tons of ice
per year:

- 159 Gt Antarctic land ice, Increased ice losses from Antarctica detected by CryoSat-2 - McMillan - 2014 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library

+ 26 Gt Antarctic sea ice, An Error Occurred Setting Your User Cookie

- 261 Gt Arctic sea ice, Polar Science Center » PIOMAS Arctic Sea Ice Volume Reanalysis

- 378 Gt Greenland, An improved mass budget for the Greenland ice sheet - Enderlin - 2014 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library

- 259 Gt other land based glaciers, A Reconciled Estimate of Glacier Contributions to Sea Level Rise: 2003 to 2009

= - 1,031 Gt, total

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by bustermaw

I read somewhere in these ramblings that the sea level has risen dramatically,and that temperatures have also risen.
I live on a small island just of the coast of europe and I can assure you that the sea level here has not risen, nor has the temperature.
The winters are still bloody cold and the summers not much better.
When did people stop believing their eyes but believing the crap that the media spout.
Must be city dwellers.
Fear equals easy way to raise taxes
Nuff said

Your small island is not the globe.

[senormechanico]

I'm still waiting for Dorado to show up on my fishing line...

Meanwhile, the sea levels have been changing...a lot!

King tides.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by Capt Phil

After 75 years on this planet I have observed the weather a lot and can conclusively state that yes, climate does change. It is called weather! Some times we have a hot summer, sometimes a cold winter, sometimes a cold summer, sometimes a hot winter. Get used to it for chrsakes! It's called weather... I'm sending Al Gore my tin foil hat... Phil

Weather and climate and two different entities.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by bustermaw

95% , well I don't know about that number.
What I do know is that probably that figure rely on Government and Corporate funding ,
Make of that what you will

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by Udacha

.Increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere from 0.03 per cent to 0.04 per cent has not caused and is not causing catastrophic runaway global warming. Dishonest references to “97 per cent of scientists” equate a mild warming influence, which most scientists agree with and more importantly can demonstrate, with a catastrophic warming influence – which most don’t agree with and none can demonstrate.

From The Stanford Solar Center

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by StuM

The usual meme is "it's the same people who were part of the tobacco lobby who are now climate deniers"

What exactly do you want sources for. Be specific and I will provide some - and they won't be newspaper/magazine articles or sites like Skeptical Science :0

Heartland

Joe Bast at work

Joe Camel Is Innocent! | Heartlander Magazine

Fred Singer was employed to show that second hand smoke is not detrimental.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by Udacha

Here is an interesting "fact" When I was in High School way back in the 70s we were being taught that we were going into an Ice Age because of burning a hole in the ozone. To get a proper analysis you need to go back 1000s of years and 10,000s and 100,000s of years. In my case in just a few decades the planet went from "going" into an Ice Age to "going" into a meltdown. I take a grain of salt with ANY climate predictions. Either they were lying to me then or lying to me now or maybe both

You were miseducated.

The MSM predicted cooling in the 70's. Science was 6:1 warming cooling.

A few climate scientists have now scanned through the research literature of the time. For 1965 to 1979, they found seven articles that predicted cooling, 44 that predicted warming and 20 that were neutral. The results were published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Newsweek in a particular had it really wrong. Peter Gwynne, the reporter, admits it.

[StuM]

Originally Posted by jackdale

Carl Mears at RSS uses the term "denialist" to describe those who misrepresent his data.
...
Use of that pejorative immedaitely stamps him as firmly in the alarmist camp. He's bound to try to wriggle his way out of what his data actually shows.

(The denialists really like to fit trends starting in 1997, so that the huge 1997-98 ENSO event is at the start of their time series, resulting in a linear fit with the smallest possible slope.)

He is talking about you in that last sentence.

No he's not. I started my graph in 1975 to show that several years in the previous 20 years has temperatures higher than some in the last 5 thus disproving the claim that the last 5 were the hottest on record.

The way the "zero warming" trend line is derived is to extend back as far as possible from the latest date. It just so happens that that "zero trend line" currently terminates around 1997. No cherry pciking at all, that's just how the maths works out.

Have a look at the graph from RSS.

...

Notice that not one single data point from 1994 to the present is below the mean. When temperatures are above average there is warming.

Totally wrong, but a very common alarmist false argument.

When temperatures are above the mean there WAS warming. It tells us nothing about what temperatures are doing now. Temperatures can cool after a peak for several years and still be above the mean.

You are taller now than your average height throughout your life. Does that mean you are still growing?

When I climb from a valley to a ridge line, I go up. When I am walking along the ridge line, I am above average altitude, but I am no longer going up. In fact I may well be going down for quite some time before I cross that average altitude line.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by StuM

Foozinator,

I'm probably wasting my time here, but just for laughs - you might like to try downloading and reading the PDF book here:

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/

Number of science academies on the planet that dispute the conclusions of the IPCC = 0

Number of science academies on the planet that endorse the heartland funded NIPCC = 0

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by sailorchic34

Fun solar info from our good friends at NASA: Solar Variability and Terrestrial Climate - NASA Science

Did you bother to read the web page you posted?

""If there is indeed a solar effect on climate, it is manifested by changes in general circulation rather than in a direct temperature signal." This fits in with the conclusion of the IPCC and previous NRC reports that solar variability is NOT the cause of global warming over the last 50 years."

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by zeehag

what gain is a useless carbon/ life tax gonna do for the planet?? who will benefit from taxation for nothing? climate change tax?? hell climate changes by itself it doesnt need humans to consider themselves mighty enough to change it permanently.

From the American Enterprise Institute - Wednesday, April 22, 2015

"Momentum is building on both sides of the aisle for action on climate change through a market-based mechanism. A carbon tax could be one such mechanism, be nested within broader fiscal reform, and send a global signal in advance of the United Nations Climate Conference in Paris late this year."

A carbon tax is simply a means of putting a cost on excess CO2. Any company that has waste products in a liquid or solid form has to pay to have it properly disposed. Are invisible gases exempt just because we cannot see them in the air?

A carbon tax is collected from fossil-fuel companies upon the first sale at the mine, wellhead or port of entry.

The money collected via this fee would be distributed to the public as a monthly “dividend” or “green check.” Distributing all of the revenue equitably to households will ensure that families can afford the energy they need during the transition to a clean energy future, and it should help win public support for a rising carbon fee.

There is no government revenue and no corporate profit.

There is just such a system in place in British Columbia.