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Old 13-08-2009, 05:19   #1
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NPR: Recent Hurricanes Not Matched Since Middle Ages

Interesting story:

Recent Hurricanes Not Matched Since Middle Ages : NPR
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Old 13-08-2009, 05:25   #2
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and ...

BBC NEWS | Science & Environment | 'Many hurricanes' in modern times
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Old 13-08-2009, 07:47   #3
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I was happy reading through the first document and recognised the science behind the ability to tell what happened in previous periods.

However, when they come up with a statement such as

But the current period of intense hurricane activity differs from the medieval one in an important way. Today's storms are associated primarily with warmer ocean temperatures, rather than the influence of La Nina.

Then there is no supporting evidence to show how they come to that conclusion, but the conclusion is sufficient as a basis to claim global warming

I will shout hogwash - or something similar.
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Old 13-08-2009, 08:08   #4
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Not to come off as too much of a cynic, but......

Of COURSE they're going to say that this modern trend is because of anthropogenic global warming. There is HUGE money to be made in the business of AGW, be it from grants for more research (in the case of scientists), getting paid to do nothing (in the case of the carbon credit business), speaking engagements, or draconian taxation. Considering the amount of cash that is earmarked for AGW-type research, they'd be stupid to not find a way to say their research is related (whether or not it really is - this particular field has more potential relevance than some I've seen try to claim an AGW link). They're leaving money on the table otherwise. And make no mistake, that's all the AGW thing comes down to really: there are a LOT of interests (commercial and political) who stand to make big bucks, and gain big power, off of it.

Just figured I'd add a bit of cheer to the day.

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Old 13-08-2009, 09:45   #5
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OF COURSE there is global warming! It's been going on since the end of the last
ice-age when glaciers were in NY and the oceans of the world were 300 feet lower than they are now! Admittedly, the increase in the worlds population and the recent industrial revolution has accelerated the process, but returning to the ice-age is not the answer. There are steps that must be taken to slow the process down, and it must be a global effort, but it won't stop it. Over population is the main problem.

Things to worry about.

Earth has a bigger problem, the earth is tiliting or maybe wobbling on its axis. The magnetic north and south poles are constantly shifting. Look at the compass rose on a chart. This is what deviation of the magnetic poles is telling us. This process will cause the polar ice-caps to change their locations and will, over a period of time, affect the global weather patterns. Maybe you engineers can explain this better.

reguards John
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Old 13-08-2009, 09:50   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexei View Post
Of COURSE they're going to say that this modern trend is because of anthropogenic global warming. There is HUGE money to be made in the business of AGW, be it from grants for more research (in the case of scientists), getting paid to do nothing (in the case of the carbon credit business), speaking engagements, or draconian taxation. Considering the amount of cash that is earmarked for AGW-type research, they'd be stupid to not find a way to say their research is related (whether or not it really is - this particular field has more potential relevance than some I've seen try to claim an AGW link). They're leaving money on the table otherwise. And make no mistake, that's all the AGW thing comes down to really: there are a LOT of interests (commercial and political) who stand to make big bucks, and gain big power, off of it.

Just figured I'd add a bit of cheer to the day.

... and Obama is a CITIZEN OF KENYA!
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Old 13-08-2009, 10:18   #7
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Originally Posted by John A View Post
OF COURSE there is global warming! It's been going on since the end of the last
ice-age when glaciers were in NY and the oceans of the world were 300 feet lower than they are now! Admittedly, the increase in the worlds population and the recent industrial revolution has accelerated the process, but returning to the ice-age is not the answer. There are steps that must be taken to slow the process down, and it must be a global effort, but it won't stop it. Over population is the main problem.

Things to worry about.

Earth has a bigger problem, the earth is tiliting or maybe wobbling on its axis. The magnetic north and south poles are constantly shifting. Look at the compass rose on a chart. This is what deviation of the magnetic poles is telling us. This process will cause the polar ice-caps to change their locations and will, over a period of time, affect the global weather patterns. Maybe you engineers can explain this better.

reguards John
From a nautical perspective, the effect you're referring to is actually variation not deviation. Variation is a result of the difference between magnetic and true north and how the difference is manifested at your spot on the globe. Deviation is a result of anomolous magnetic effects on a compass caused by objects within the boat itself.
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Old 13-08-2009, 10:24   #8
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Oh crap here we go again.
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Old 13-08-2009, 10:25   #9
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There is no problem with discussing the environment and whether or not you agree with the theories. But please, keep the politics and the politicians out of it.

Please see the rules.
http://www.cruisersforum.com/?page=rules
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Old 13-08-2009, 10:27   #10
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Thank you sneuman, for the correction.
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Old 13-08-2009, 10:55   #11
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The change in the place where the earth rotates is called precession. The movement of the magnetic poles is a different phenomena from precession.

The Earth does have very long term and shorter term cycles in its orbit and its tilt with respect to the Sun. These changes are what caused the last ice age and mini ice ages as well as ages of warmer weather. The Sun also has warmer and cooler cycles. The Earth itself also produces heat. Volcanic activity can cause cooling cycles by increasing the albedo effect.

I am curious how the number of hurricanes from the Middle Ages were measured. As far as I know, the native peoples living in hurricane alley never kept any records. Are there somehow geologic records of hurricanes? There are fossil records and ice core records of warmer and cooler periods. To say though that these records to quantify exactly the number of hurricanes because of warmer or cooler water, I think would be stretching it.
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Old 13-08-2009, 11:09   #12
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David, you are too kind. I'm not sure that discussing the theories behind global warming is of any use on this site (and has already been shown, it will inevitably become political), although the impact of global warming is. Clearly it is significant to all of us is that the current level of hurricane activity is higher than has been seen in centuries: at minimum it means that additional care should be taken by all of us in passage planning. It also means that additional care should be taken in making use of pilot charts that are based, in significant part, upon data taken from periods of less severe weather.

Brad
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Old 13-08-2009, 11:19   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David M View Post
The change in point where the earth rotates is called precession. The movement of the magnetic poles is a different phenomena from precession.

The Earth does have very long term and shorter term cycles in its orbit and its tilt with respect to the Sun. These changes are what caused the last ice age and mini ice ages and ages of warmer weather. The Sun also has warmer and cooler cycles. The Earth itself also produces heat. Volcanic activity can cause cooling cycles by increasing the albedo effect.

I am curious how the number of hurricanes from the Middle Ages were measured. As far as I know, the native peoples living in hurricane alley never kept any records. Are there somehow geologic records of hurricanes? There are fossil records and ice core records of warmer and cooler periods. To say though that these records to quantify exactly the number of hurricanes because of warmer or cooler water, I think would be stretching it.
Yes, if you read the article, it discusses the methodology.
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Old 13-08-2009, 11:34   #14
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Ok...I read it. The methodology seems plausible.

To conclude that it is caused by global warming I think might be a jump. I agree the Earth is warming, there is too much quantitative evidence just from climate satellites orbiting the Earth. Actual sea temperatures are not guesses, they are fact. My guess is the reason is both nature and man. What percentage is the cause is anyone's guess. We don't have an accurate computer model to determine this because it would be an incomprehensibly large model with millions of parameters. Could we ever be able to determine the millions of parameters?...no way. And even if we had that model, we would not have the processing power to run that model.

So really, the best man will ever be able to do is guess. Some people will guess one way and others will guess the other way. But I think the really educated people will know that determining the percentage and the magnitude of mans effects versus natures effects is something that cannot be determined at all....ever.
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Old 13-08-2009, 12:11   #15
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Ok...I read it. The methodology seems plausible.

To conclude that it is caused by global warming I think might be a jump. I agree the Earth is warming, there is too much quantitative evidence just from climate satellites orbiting the Earth. Actual sea temperatures are not guesses, they are fact. My guess is the reason is both nature and man. What percentage is the cause is anyone's guess. We don't have an accurate computer model to determine this because it would be an incomprehensibly large model with millions of parameters. Could we ever be able to determine the millions of parameters?...no way. And even if we had that model, we would not have the processing power to run that model.

So really, the best man will ever be able to do is guess. Some people will guess one way and others will guess the other way. But I think the really educated people will know that determining the percentage and the magnitude of mans effects versus natures effects is something that cannot be determined at all....ever.
Agreed. There is evidence that we are clinging to a small anamoly in the Earth's natural climate timeline when conditions favored our evolution and dominance. The vast majority of the planet's climatic history was inhospitable to homo sapiens and it's almost certain that the vast majority of the future will be inhospitable as well.

The recent change is indisputable, even as the extent of our role is in question. Either way, we are going to need to fix the problem or the planet will "fix" us.
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