Trans-Pacific Partnership

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by atoll

great insites from you on the geopoletic of the region,though passing through the Singapore straights recently it is noticeable the vast amount of shipping permernently anchored there.

Well spotted. The Singapore Straits are an easy indicator of the health (or otherwise) of the world economy.


At the moment, things are not good. Check out the Baltic Dry Index: point your browser to: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart


Look for the 5 Year view (labelled 5Y at the top of the chart). Unfortunately, 5Y is not a long enough range, because it misses out on 2008. And of course it misses out on 1968.


Why do I mention 1968? Because the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of how much it costs to ship goods around the planet, is today at 596. And the last time in my lifetime it was so low was in 1968.


As well as cargo ships sitting high and empty, you would have also seen a few tankers. A few are laden, acting as floating storage.


Another easy measure of the world's economy is the spacing between ships travelling the traffic separation scheme through the Singapore Strait. When the economy is bubbling well, the spacing in either lane averages a bare 10 minutes.


Since 2008, crossing the TSS from Singapore to, say, Nongsa Point Marina in Indonesia has been a lot easier.


Al

[tropicalescape]

click on any link provided by this entity and your computor will be over whelmed with malware and then a company that acts like its in Montana will start calling asking if your in front of your computor..The company that calls is in Pakistan not Montana there are several posters on CF that are doing this...

[transmitterdan]

I suspect the malware is on your computer not in the link.

[Alan Mighty]

Most recent developments in the on-going TPP saga have been:

1a. An official of the government of the Philippines, which is not a party to TPP negotiations, saying that the Philippines would prefer the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to the TPP. The official was Gregorio Dominguez, the Secretary for Trade, speaking in Japan. The RCEP has been seen by many as China's preferred alternative to the TPP. Most observers regard the Philippines as wanting to shelter under USA protection than being disposed to China. See: Philippines and TPP: Aquino government won't seek to join, trade chief says- Nikkei Asian Review


1b. One respected analyst of East Asia, Malcolm Cook (a Canadian with Australian nationality and one-time academic teaching in the Philippines) noted that political elites in the Philippines are more divided about relations with China that most observers consider. Although the Philippines is engaged in border disputes with China about waters and sandbanks in the South China Sea, Cook notes that some Philippine political elites prefer cooperation with China. See: http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...LCC=855755097&


2. Hun Sen, the one-eyed thug who runs Cambodia, has also praised the RCEP and criticised the TPP for his claim that the TPP intentionally splits ASEAN. Many observers see Hun Sen and Cambodia as pro-China on many issues. Observers also deny HS's claim that the TPP divides ASEAN, although admitting that only a few of the ASEANations are included in TPP negotiations. See: Cambodia’s Hun Sen Slams ASEAN-Splitting TPP | The Diplomat


3. The clown who is prime minister of Australia, Tony Abbott, said to German chancellor Angela Merkel that Australia's policy towards China was based on nothing more than 'fear and greed'. That simple characterisation of international policy is not at odds with remarks recently made by US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter who suggested that the TPP was an unsinkable aircraft carrier. See: 'Fear and greed' drive Australia's China policy, Tony Abbott tells Angela Merkel and The Trans-Pacific Partnership Is No Aircraft Carrier | The Diplomat


Al

[denverd0n]

Originally Posted by Alan Mighty

The TPP will undoubtedly make some people richer.

Understatement of the year. The one thing that you can be absolutely sure of with these kinds of international treaties is that somebody is going to make a LOT of money!

[Buzzman]

Originally Posted by Alan Mighty

3. The clown who is prime minister of Australia, Tony Abbott, ............


Al

This has to be the understatement of the year.

It appears he only opens his mouth so as to put his foot in it.

The TPP is barely an item on the medi agenda here, although the better papers have featured the ongoing debates.

Frankly I can't see it benefiting Aus too much, as we already have FTA's with our major Asian and PAcific trading partners.

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by Buzzman

Frankly I can't see it benefiting Aus too much, as we already have FTA's with our major Asian and PAcific trading partners.

As I understand it, the Aus-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement does not cover sugar or rice. I have to admit, as Buzzman knows, that the Aus govt treats Aus citizens as mushrooms, so the Aus-Japan EPA text is not easy to find and I've only read summaries of it.


But if the TPP did force further open the markets for sugar and rice in Nippon, Australia's rice and sugar farmers should get significant benefit.


The Japanese mainstream media did last week include a brief story that the govt of Japan did intend to increase the amount of rice bought from the USA and Australia. If the TPP negotiations were successful, such an increase would be market matter, not a temporary gift of politicians feeling pressure from USA negotiators.


Al

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by Alan Mighty

The Japanese mainstream media did last week include a brief story that the govt of Japan did intend to increase the amount of rice bought from the USA and Australia. If the TPP negotiations were successful, such an increase would be market matter, not a temporary gift of politicians feeling pressure from USA negotiators.

I could no longer find the story I read in the mainstream Japan press, but here's a link to a version of the story via Bloomberg and Recordnet:


Japan farmers cultivate rice's mystique as barrier to deal - Nation World - recordnet.com - Stockton, CA


Al

[Buzzman]

Yeah, the Aussie broad-acre, water-thieving 'farmers' (aka industrial agribusiness) would no doubt benefit - but at whose expense?

I know from seeing the occasional piece on SBS tv that Japanese rice farmers struggle to compete against the agribusinesses due to their economics of scale, which the small acreage Japanese farmers cannot hope to match.

The question that is 'never' pondered during the discussions about 'free trade' is, rather than 'who benefits', far more important should be 'who is harmed'?

Japanese small-acreage farms are part of the cultural traditions of Japan. They are not simply 'economic units'.

Without import protections they'd soon be driven out of business. Something Japanese farmers are not keen on.

You may ask: should we care?

My response is: why wouldn't we?

Well, if we have shares in agribusinesses, perhaps not.....

[tropicalescape]

So our president has gotten the bill through with money and training for those that feel they will lose ther jobs..The ones that will benefit from this are the ones that have experiance(and arent afraid to travel)traveling the world and going to far places and meeting folks from different countries as they will have an advantage over those that are not or will not open themselves to the world at large..I belive that folks like us (sailors,travlers etc.) will be in a very good position to implement the constructs of the TPP..Let the work begin...

[Buzzman]

What's worse is that the provisions of such traties allow multi-national corporations to sue soverign govts for compensation if the govt makes legislative changes that affect the profits of the corporation.

So it's bound to prevent the Oz govt from changeing local tax laws to require US (and other) multinationals from paying their fair share of taxes in this country.

At present, google, facebook etc all book revenues in Australia but pay little or no tax on those revenues as the revenues are 'booked' to an offshore subsidiary as 'loan repayments' or something similar, thereby avoiding local taxes.

We're losing billions every year by this and other 'legal' means of tax avoidance.

[Alan Mighty]

What might be the final weeks of negotiation over the TPP has started.

The first event is negotiations, in Tokyo, between Japan and USA that started on Thursday 9 July and are scheduled to finish on Friday 10 July.


Of the 12 players in the TPP negotiations, the economic relationship between Japan and USA is the only big relationship. For the other 11 players, their trade with the US is small compared to their trade with China (which is, of course, not in the TPP negotiations, because ... well ... the easy explanation is that the TPP is a part of the last stand by a fading US empire to contain the rise of China ... as such, TPP is only marginally about trade; it's more a political institutional thing. Note that sometimes last stands are successful. Don't judge all last stands by Custer's.)


After the two day Nippon-USA love-in, the next TPP events are scheduled to be held in Hawai'i. First, a preliminary meeting to make sure everyone is on the same page, on 24 July. Second on 28-31 July, the trade ministers of all 12 participants in the negotiations meet, with the dream of a signing and happy face photo facility on the final day.


Of course, Barry Obama is hoping he will be able to make a big announcement very soon after (just in time for Hiroshima Day or perhaps Nagasaki Day?).


See: Japan, US working-level TPP talks resume - News - NHK WORLD - English


To revise: the 'trade' portions of what USA wants from the TPP have long been public. The US has until now been the only transparent player in the game. For the US aims, see: https://ustr.gov/tpp/Summary-of-US-objectives


There's a lot to read on the USTR page. Note particularly the detail about State Owned Enterprises. If opportunity is kind, I'll write more about SOEs from the Asian economies' perspectives later.


Nippon is by nature a much less transparent polity and society. We've all known or guessed that Japan's objectives have included: 1. maintaining some level of protection for local rice farmers; 2. maintaining protection on select other sectors (sugar, some service sectors); and 3. gain immediate access for Japanese auto parts exported into the US.


Surprisingly, the Japan media has yesterday (9 July) and today been quite forthright on the Japanese negotiation position.


1. On rice, the US wants to sell an extra 200K tonnes of rice to Japan. Japan is prepared to accept only 50K tonnes and is prepared to buy from Australia 12% of whatever rice the US sells.


2. On auto parts, the US wants to keep a 2.5% tariff it levies on Japanese auto parts (engines, gearboxes, power steering units and 297 other specified auto parts) for at least 10 more years to protect the US auto industry. Japan wants that time period cut to 5 years (or shorter, they dream).


See:


Japan, U.S. resume talks ahead of TPP ministerial session in late July - 毎日新�


and


Japan, US officials to resume TPP trade talks - News - NHK WORLD - English


Al

[tropicalescape]

Meanwhile in Ufo Russia the BRICs and the SCO(Shanghi co-operation org.)(more economic than a counter to NATO) are meeting..Wonder what it feels like to show up at that meeting when the chinese economy is getting what happens when you try to mix SOEs with free markets(disaster!)? ...Brazil ,Russia having all the problems they have which the whole world knows about and India the only one that is doing "ok" at the moment and seems to be the only bright spot among what for at least the last 5 years has been a "very promising" proposition.. This is what the war to end all wars looked like right before all was quite on the western front and the s%$t hit the fan...Rail roads to places that would have an impact on already existing and established means of transport and links to colonial posessions (Germany building a rail line from Berlin to modern day Baghdad(Anotoli/Mesopetamia(sp?) then/now (China building new silk road inititive with pipelines and rail links across western aisa and eastern europe) We all know how the rail line from Germany to Bagdad went and the same will probably happen to China and their ambitious SRI..These are some amazing times we are living in and I dont think that we will ever see the SRI or the AIIB or the BRICs reach the point that they aspire to ,just as Germany ,the Ottomans and the Austro -Hungarian empire never reached fruition..The Tpp on the other hand may well survive to be if not what it was envisioned as at least implemented in some form near to its directive...

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by Alan Mighty

The first event is negotiations, in Tokyo, between Japan and USA that started on Thursday 9 July and are scheduled to finish on Friday 10 July.

After the two day Nippon-USA love-in, the next TPP events are scheduled to be held in Hawai'i. First, a preliminary meeting to make sure everyone is on the same page, on 24 July. Second on 28-31 July, the trade ministers of all 12 participants in the negotiations meet, with the dream of a signing and happy face photo facility on the final day.

The two-day love-in, 9-10 July, did not go as well as some had hoped. Differences remain on Japan's protection of its rice market and the US's protection of its auto parts manufacturers.


Oe Hiroshi, leading team Nippon, effectively said his political masters would have to change their minds and another Japan-US negotiation held before the Hawai'i meetings. Cutler Wendy, leading team USA, said the two sides "could narrow" their differences.


Everyone else knows that unless a Japan-US deal is done before the scheduled Hawai'i meetings, the TPP is a dead duck. That's because of the US political calendar.


See: TPP negotiator: Political agreement necessary - News - NHK WORLD - English


Al

[Alan Mighty]

While on the topic of Japan, note that our Nipponese friends have not been idle in the face of the threats they think the TPP might pose.

For one, government tax officials in June reworded the tax laws to privilege Japan-made sake against the threat of ?US? exporters who might seek to sell non-Japan sake in Japan. See: Govt. to tighten rules for Japanese sake labeling - News - NHK WORLD - English


Not all products need such protection from competition. Jim Murray's Whisky Bible, 2015 edition, designated Yamazaki Single Malt Sherry Cask 2013 as the best single malt on this planet. See: Japanese whisky takes the world by storm - 毎日新�


Al