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Old 14-05-2007, 20:03   #106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny
The IPCC-SPM does not define an "ideal" temperature for the global climate. What do you think?

Should the global climate be cooler?

Should the global climate be warmer?

Is the global climate, by some miracle, just right?

Hint: Earth is the only place in the universe that we know has life on it.
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Old 14-05-2007, 20:19   #107
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The range that has prevailed throughout mankind's time on the planet is the preferrable range; the one in which we flourshed and expanded our race and not the recent hotter periods and expected even hotter periods yet to come with their expected negative effects to man's present lifestyles, food requirements and distribution throughout the earth. The object of the exercise is to minimize the upheaval that will be associated with global temperature changes by reducing man's impact on this process. The reports do not dwell on the obvious.
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Old 14-05-2007, 21:09   #108
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But Benny, it was the warmer parts of earth where mankind flourished and expanded. It wasn't until well after the last ice age that mankind began to move out of the tropics. And that required clothes and fire.

If climate change is truely only about what is best for mankind, then shouldn't we be asking - what is the global climate temperature needed to support the 10 billion humans expected by the 22nd century?
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Old 14-05-2007, 21:18   #109
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I have read that on average, Earth is warmer than it is now. It has been considerably warmer even during mankinds brief "reign" - Greenland used to be farmed. It used to be green, not white.
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Old 14-05-2007, 21:20   #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Viking Sailor
The IPCC-SPM does not define an "ideal" temperature for the global climate. What do you think?

Should the global climate be cooler?

Should the global climate be warmer?

Is the global climate, by some miracle, just right?

Hint: Earth is the only place in the universe that we know has life on it.
We only know about a tiny fraction of the universe though. And an even tinier fraction of the time the universe has existed.
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Old 14-05-2007, 21:39   #111
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Originally Posted by 44'cruisingcat
We only know about a tiny fraction of the universe though. And an even tinier fraction of the time the universe has existed.
True.

However, until we know for sure that there is abundant life on other worlds, maybe we should take extra special care to ensure that earth can support a rich biodiversity.
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Old 14-05-2007, 21:45   #112
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Old 14-05-2007, 21:46   #113
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The problem with the links Benny (and YES I did read everything!)...is that this data is exactly what the scientists on my previous links are attacking for innacuracy and carefully chosen dates and skewed samples.
Here's one example of what I am talking about...the second link you provide shows deviation in surface temp from a CHOSEN mean for the years 1960-90. Then the verticle scale is expanded to make vey small deviations from this arbitrary average look large.
Now this:

Figure 4: Annual mean surface temperatures in the contiguous United States between 1895 and 1997, as compiled by the National Climate Data Center (1). Horizontal line is the 103-year mean. The trend line for this 103-year period has a slope of 0.022 ºC per decade or 0.22 ºC per century. The trend line for 1940 to 1997 has a slope of 0.008 ºC per decade or 0.08 ºC per century.
  1. Brown, W. O. and Heim, R. R. (1996) National Climate Data Center, Climate Variation Bulletin 8, Historical Climatology Series 4-7, Dec.; [cPanel®. ncdc.noaa. gov/o1/documentlibrary/cvb.html/].
Here is virtually the same time period just shown with a record of annual surface temperatures and the horizontal line the 103 year mean rather than an arbitrary 30 years. And we're not lookink at deviation we're looking at actual temperature trending which is just .08 degrees per CENTURY.
....And that is just one small example of how that 18 pages is rife with junk science.
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Old 15-05-2007, 01:05   #114
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Spot on Camaraderie. No's and Graph's are so easy to "make" to support any argument.

Quote:
I have read that on average, Earth is warmer than it is now.
Basicly Yes.
This is a complex one as well. So firstly, yes the Earth was once much warmer. Much much warmer and very wet. More tropical rain forest all over, than the Earth of today. When I say wet, it wasn't wet from rain fall as such. It is believed that it was more like a very moist glass house type environment, and rain as we know it may not have actually existed. What is known, was that at some point in earths history there was a great flood. No I am not bringing in Noah here. In fact, it is considerd that this was much much earlier. Millions of years before Man. But a flood there definatly was. What triggered it is full of speculation. Maybe a comet or maybe it was just a trigger point was reached. But a sudden and dramatic change has been found in fossilised records that a large flood earth involved flood took place. There is simply not enough evidence to say just how deep this got. But a change in the weather took place. From that point on, the earth experianced rain and the Earths climate took a very different course from that time on. One other question unable to be answered, Did the Earth have frozen poles in this warm time period. No one knows because there is no evidence to support that. There was no land over the poles at that time.
That is one other major difference. The land mass was also once very different. Places like Greenland weren't where they are today. So not only has the Earth got colder, but continents such as Greenland have also moved further into colder lattitudes. The Antarctic land mass was once in much higher lattitudes and evedence of tropical plants have been found in fossel form in the Antartic rock.
Then there have been the ice ages. There have been several over earth history, But it is still undetermined what caused them. There have been many speculations from Volcanoes to Comets etc. And these speculations have been well founded with good proof. Like the massive impact area around the top of South America. The largest Volcanic dome on earth that possibly bore the entire continent of India in one continuose erruption. Taupo in NZ was the scene of what is considered the largest volcanic explosion to ever happen. Dust from all these events would have plunged the earth into dark coldness. But it is all speculation. No one was there at the time. We can only look at the evidence and speculate.
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Old 15-05-2007, 03:32   #115
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Don't seem to be hearing many contrary arguments from our Auusie sailors. Maybe that's because they're experiencing extremes of climate at the moment and have been for a few years now (as we have in NZ). Island nations (and small continents) seem to be more susceptible to the effects of climate variation than do the major land masses.
I wonder that none of the ostriches have brought up the fact that some of the Antarctic iceshelves are actually growing!!! I can shoot that one down in flames if you want.
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Old 15-05-2007, 04:03   #116
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 44'cruisingcat
Greenland used to be farmed. It used to be green, not white.
Greenland was never a lush and “green” paradise. The Norse habitation was limited to a few coastal fiords, mostly in the South West - not unlike today.

A (naturally) changing Climate was only one of the factors, that combined with anthropogenic “forcings”, resulting in the decline of the always fragile Norse civilization.

Greenland's ice cap is hundreds of thousands of years old and covers 95% of that island.

When finally confronted with a few severe winters, they, along with the little remaining livestock, simply starved. Much as you can not judge a book by its cover, you can't determine the climate of Greenland from its name (which was a "marketing ploy")

A careful examination of the climate record reveals that Europe experienced a prolonged warm period known as the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) between the years 600 and 1150, a cooling of the climate between the years 1150 and 1460, a brief warming between the years 1460 and 1560, followed by dramatic cooling known as the Little Ice Age (LIA) between the years 1560 and 1850.

During the years 800-1200 (The Medieval warming Period), Iceland and Greenland were settled by the Norse “Vikings”.

The Greenland Vikings lived mostly on dairy produce and meat, primarily from cows. The vegetable diet of Greenlanders included berries, edible grasses, and seaweed, but these were inadequate even during the best harvests.

Even during the MWP, Greenland's climate was so cold, that cattle breeding and dairy farming could only be carried on in the sheltered fiords. The growing season in Greenland even then was very short. Frost typically occurred in August and the fiords froze in October. Notwithstanding, the Greenlanders prospered. From the number of farms in both colonies, whose 400 or so stone ruins still dot the landscape, archaeologists guess that the population may have risen to a peak of about 5,000.

Eventually, the number of Norwegian merchant vessels arriving in their ports, though only one or two a year in the best of times, dropped until none came at all. This meant that the islanders were cut off from the major source of iron and tools needed for the smooth running of their farms and the construction and maintenance of their boats.

As the Greenlanders' isolation from Europe grew, they found themselves victims of a steadily deteriorating environment. Their farmland, exploited to the full, had lost fertility. Erosion followed severe reductions in ground cover. The cutting of dwarf willows and alders for fuel and for the production of charcoal to use in the smelting of bog iron, which yielded soft, inferior metal, deprived the soil of its anchor of roots. Pollen analysis shows a dramatic decline in these species during the Viking years. In addition, livestock probably consumed any regenerating scrub. Overgrazing, trampling, and scuffing by the Norsemen's sheep, goats and cattle, the core of the island's livelihood, left the land debased.

Greenland's climate began to change as well; the summers grew shorter and progressively cooler, limiting the time cattle could be kept outdoors and increasing the need for winter fodder. During the worst years, when rains would have been heaviest, the hay crop would barely have been adequate to see the penned animals through the coldest days.

When the Norsemen arrived in Greenland, they had the island and its waters to themselves. Now they had to contend with the Inuit, who were competing with them for animal resources. This was especially true in the Nordseta, the Greenlanders' traditional summer hunting grounds 240 miles north of the Eastern Settlement.

So, what happened to the last of the Greenlanders?

Thomas McGovern, of New York's Hunter College, who has participated in excavations in Greenland, has proposed that the Norsemen lost the ability to adapt to changing conditions. He sees them as the victims of hidebound thinking and of a hierarchical society dominated by the Church and the biggest land owners. In their reluctance to see themselves as anything but Europeans, the Greenlanders failed to adopt the kind of apparel that the Inuit employed as protection against the cold and damp or to borrow any of the Eskimo hunting gear. They ignored the toggle harpoon, which would have allowed them to catch seals through holes in the ice in winter when food was scarce, and they seem not even to have bothered with fishhooks, which they could have fashioned easily from bone, as did the Inuit. Instead, the Norsemen remained wedded to their farms and to the raising of sheep, goats, and cattle in the face of ever worsening conditions that must have made maintaining their herds next to impossible.

McGovern also believes that as life became harder, the birthrate declined. The young people who did come along may have seen a brighter future waiting somewhere else. The depredations of the plague in Iceland and in Norway could have created vacancies overseas that able-bodied Greenlanders might have filled. Through the years there may have been a slow but persistent drift of Greenlanders to those places that had been home to their ancestors, further reducing the island's dwindling population.

A (naturally) changing Climate was only one of the factors, that combined with anthropogenic “forcings”, resulting in the decline of the always fragile civilization.
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Old 15-05-2007, 04:23   #117
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On the other hand ...

Mercury Marine will recall 40 of 50 workers it laid off earlier this year. The workers are part of Plant 15, Mercury's outboard assembly facility and Plant 17, its castings operation. They should return to work by June 1, according to a story in the Fond Du Lac Reporter. Vice president of human resources Dennis Rooney said that the company and worker's union are both pleased with the recall. "It's a good situation for all involved," he told the paper.

Mercury's communications coordinator Erik Pope told a local TV station that the extra workers were needed because of an improved warm-weather business climate.

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Old 15-05-2007, 05:23   #118
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"I wonder that none of the ostriches have brought up the fact that some of the Antarctic iceshelves are actually growing!!! I can shoot that one down in flames if you want."

Not singling you out but this defines the hottest (pun intended) polarizing issues. Data may or may not be conclusive, the signal to noise ratio is very low and everyone can argue both sides of these issues.

People are going to go down in flames defending their positions because it's human nature.

As for me? I am in the, "We are not even a blip on the timeline of the planet and our arrogance is thinking that what we do "matters" to the planet. It matters to us, sure. But the planet could gives a monkey's b*tt whether we are here or not.

BTW - Have you heard the universe is expanding at an alarming rate? I want to know what the government is doing about this. It's caused by the ever increasing pace of the modern lifestyle. People or moving faster then ever and the molecules that make up the universe are moving apart to compensate. Slow down for Pete's sake everyone. Although only for Pete I know not why.
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Old 15-05-2007, 09:34   #119
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Here's a wonderful and most understandable article in this weeks Newsweek by Richard Lindzen who is the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology...not exactly known for scientific dummies!!
Opinion: Global Warming Fears Overblown - Leadership and the Environment - MSNBC.com

Anyone still want to claim there is a consensus among reputable scientists?!
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Old 15-05-2007, 09:56   #120
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I'm certainly no expert, but...

I believe our world is heating up simply because we've been pumping all of the lubricating oil out of it.

And rising sea levels are just gonna present us mariners with more places to anchor!

I have invested in solar panels to reduce my need to run the engine.

Happy Sailing!

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