Running From Weather

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by john61ct

Most owners would not dream of intentionally risking their lives to save their boat, many are wealthy or at least have insurance after all.

John,

I hardly think of what my wife and I have been doing over the past five days as risking our lives to save our boat. It's just common sense to get out of the way of a well-forecast storm or potentially dangerous situation.

But I believe the point you're actually trying to make.... is that common sense might not be as common as it once was, when natural selection culled the herd instead of the government propping up a more dull and lazy flock.

Ken

[sandy stone]

Well, I think there may be a little selective memory going on here. This is the track prediction from Saturday night - note that the eye of the storm is supposed to be within the cone about 2/3 of the time. And that's just the eye, not the extent of tropical-storm force winds. I think you would have been taking a big chance with your life to go to sea the next day based on what is presented here. Also note how different the prediction is from the actual track.

[sandy stone]

Kenomac, nobody is suggesting that a facing a 50-knot storm, in an Oyster 53, in the Adriatic, is life-threatening. A 150-knot hurricane, in the open Atlantic, in maybe a Cal 34, would be. I'm sure you realize the force of the wind is almost 10 times greater, not just 3 times, right?
I'm really surprised at the number of desktop sailors who 'would have' moved their boats across open water in the face of a hurricane. I think it's a little different standing on deck, watching the clouds, and feeling the swell start to increase. Those things are really not as predictable as we would all like to think.

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by sandy stone

Kenomac, nobody is suggesting that a facing a 50-knot storm, in an Oyster 53, in the Adriatic, is life-threatening. A 150-knot hurricane, in the open Atlantic, in maybe a Cal 34, would be. I'm sure you realize the force of the wind is almost 10 times greater, not just 3 times, right?
I'm really surprised at the number of desktop sailors who 'would have' moved their boats across open water in the face of a hurricane. I think it's a little different standing on deck, watching the clouds, and feeling the swell start to increase. Those things are really not as predictable as we would all like to think.

I'm showing how it's possible to get out of the way of a storm and what it looks like to be doing it.... let's pretend here in desktop cyberspace that the winds here in Croatia are expected to be 50-70mph which do happen here more frequently than the Caribbean experiences hurricane force 185mph wind. Would it not be wise to get one's sorry ash out of the way? Do you feel that because the expected winds here are "only 50 knots," that being caught out is somehow much less dangerous than being caught out in 50 knot tropical storm winds in the Caribbean? When we started moving our boat five days ago, what if the forecast changed and the expected wind force increased to 80 knots? We had no way of knowing that that wouldn't happen did we?

Why is it that most desktop sailors believe that getting away from bad weather looks like the Hollyweird movie "The Perfect Storm" with 200ft waves? When one leaves early enough, it's nothing more than smooth sailing as pictured in the video.... as most experienced cruisers will concur.

If you prefer the "deer in the headlights" approach.... then sit there, do nothing, make excuses and then deal with the consequences..... we just prefer a more proactive solution.

[grantmc]

Originally Posted by mikedefieslife

I've always wondered when people say oh there's a storm coming, I'd better go this way or that way to get away from it.
A sailboat travels at a brisk walking pace. Seldom do I hear people in the street say, oh it's starting to snow, if I walk in this direction I can get away from it into milder weather.
👍

Your point is made from a lack of knowledge. Read about the 'dangerous semi circle'. Storm avoidance and management, or 'running from the storm' is an aspect of seamanship.

[Jeannius]

Four Coconuts.. David, three times I was in the BVI or St Martin when a hurricane was approaching. On two occasions I had enough advance warning and headed south aiming for Grenada. On both occasions I made it with plenty of time to spare.


The third time, the hurricane sprung up somewhere in the south west around Costa Rica. That time there was nowhere to go because it is rare for a hurricane to form down there and head north east so it was much more difficult to predict. We got a great double slip all to ourselves in Port de Plaisance, St Maarten, and successfully rode out the Cat 3 Omar.


I believe most of the boats destroyed in Irma were either charter boats or boats left on the hard by absentee owners. I'm sure most people who were aboard headed south if they had time.

[Catalysis]

Originally Posted by Taichungman

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I agree that it's a calculated risk but that is what skippers have to do. And knowing this hurricane was huge and it's predicted track, the best risk would have been to sail South. There was time but decisions have to be made quickly.

Last year, Sept. 28th while anchored near Stocking Is, as crew on a SF50, I was sitting in the cockpit drinking a beer when the skipper said there's a tropical depression near Barbados, "let's leave." Our destination was Annapolis Md. for the boat show so we took off on a heading directly for Cape Hatteras.

By the 29th the tropical storm was named Hurricane Matthew. By the 30th it was a Category 5 hurricane. Of course we left in enough time and were safe in Annapolis as Matthew made it way up the East Coast.

We had left Cape Town in July knowing it would be hurricane season in the Caribbean when we got there. The skippers strategy was always either to outrun it or get out of its way and he knew this when he left CT.

I don't think you have to be a victim to these hurricanes if you are on your boat, your have weather info and your boat is prepared to sail.

Yep, Graham is a thoughtful Skipper....

[44'cruisingcat]

Friends of ours keep their boat in the Whitsundays during cyclone season, and have dodged a few cyclones over the years.
https://vimeo.com/22441359

Our strategy is to be well out of the tropics at that time of year.

[Inexorable]

I can't say what someone should or shouldn't do, I can only comment on what my wife and I have done. We live aboard is St. Pete and have dealt with many hurricanes over the years. Some were nothing to worry about, many greatly overhyped by the media, none that have hit us directly.
Seeing the track about a week ago and knowing the uncertainty in prediction models we decided to wait and see. When the track was shifted east there was some relief and it felt like we could be in the clear. We both have full time jobs so getting out of town isn't an easy maneuver. It would mean I'd have to reschedule many patients and my wife would be leaving her company unexpectedly for at least a week.
I decided it wasn't worth the risk to stay in St Pete despite it being tracked on the eastern side of the state. I wanted to leave Wednesday, but the wife's schedule wouldn't allow until Thursday afternoon. I figured I had enough time to get west far enough to avoid the hurricane, going all the way to Houston if necessary. We left and kept an eye on the weather seeing the track push west which kept us pushing a little farther west.
In hindsight it was the right move as the storm is tracking right over Tampa. For me it wasn't a decision about saving the boat, but saving us, we are fully insured. There is a much better chance the storm hits Jacksonville than New Orleans, so I'll sail to NOLA rather than drive north to a hotel. I can't think of any logistical obstacles that would have made me not pick up and run. I wish more had done the same and I pray they all make it through this unscathed.

[Jim Cate]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

So you recommend the deer in the headlights approach. Suit yourself, but we prefer a more proactive solution.

Nope, you have misread my post, Ken. I'm saying that your dodging a 40-50 knot storm is quite different in potential risk than dodging Irma. Failure to avoid your storm at sea means a day or two of discomfort in conditions that we have all endured at some time. Failure to avoid Irma at sea means near certain death. I see these choices as categorically different.

As for us, we've been caught a couple of times by out of season cyclones here in the SP. One at Raul Island in the Kermadecs... that one traveled several hundred miles south of its predicted path, causing our supposedly safe anchorage to become a lee shore when the eye went over us. Not nice, but it was only a Cat 1, and we survived at sea with little difficulty once we escaped the anchorage. This was in May... season ends officially in April.

The other was in Vanuatu, and it popped up nearby with no advance warning, early in October (season begins in November, usually no activity until December). The forecast track was right over our location. We beat some 80 miles to windward to get to a cyclone anchorage. Then the storm deviated from predictions and went elsewhere.

Oh... there was another one as well. In New Caledonia around the first week of November. A small cyclone was predicted to pass between NC and Vanuatu. We chose to depart from Noumea (on the west coast of NC) and head back to Australia, directly away from the likely path and with a decent head start. Had a good passage with strong trades. Never came close, that one

So no, we don't chose to be deer in the headlights when there is a viable alternative. We also choose to depart from cyclone areas before the season begins. And we do not trust the predictions for paths. Dunno about the Atlantic hurricanes, but the SP cyclones often deviate wildly from expectations. This would strongly affect my reaction to an impending Cat 5 storm.

Jim

[Suijin]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

Some of this phenom may also be attributed to an attitude created in America over the past 15 years or so of everyone becoming victims in waiting, and the people with boats having a marina type mentality and really not knowing what to do and being afraid to anything. The result seems to be millions of people staring into the headlights, frozen and waiting to be hit.

'Just two peoples humble opinion on the subject... as we continue our trek north today in Croatia to get out of harms way.

News flash: America isn't the only place on Earth with high wind storms.

Being blunt, I think this is a pretty ridiculous theory. It's not a matter of "learned helplessness", rather I think what has happened over the last 15 years is that there is more media available showing you what happened and where. 15 years ago those cruisers who were in the BVIs during hurricane season didn't post videos to YouTube advertising that fact.

Beyond that I'll bet that of boats that were destroyed, a minority of them are owned by Americans who were actually even there. Because now is not only a pretty stupid time to be cruising in that area as it's hurricane season, but also because of the general weather. It's not where I'd want to be this time of year.

As for the charter fleets, which probably account for most of the damage to cruising boats, they don't have the manpower to move all those boats 300 miles away. They barely have the resources to get them sorted in a hurricane hole.

Unless you were in the BVIs, your options for relocating are pretty limited. And if you're in the BVIs you have one option; go south, and you'll need favorable conditions.

If I had been sitting in St. Maarten when Irma first looked like she was going to hit, I'd have certainly thought about casting off and heading south as soon as possible. But I have no idea what the weather and winds were doing then, for starters.

Don't forget that the "predicated path cone" is accurate 60-70% of the time. That means that one in three times the hurricane tracks outside the the cone. Would suck to head south and watch it slowly curve to the left...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ccp-lEmoAE

[a64pilot]

Part of it is a whole lot of us, once we get very far offshore at all, we hear no news. Your flying blind, you get no new info.

[Suijin]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Part of it is a whole lot of us, once we get very far offshore at all, we hear no news. Your flying blind, you get no new info.

I think Ken is talking about folks planted in a harbor or marina of an island in the path. No excuse to not know what's going on weather wise in that case...depending on the island.

[SecondBase]

Originally Posted by mikedefieslife

I've always wonder when people say oh there's a storm coming, I'd better go this way or that way to get away from it.



A sailboat travels at a brisk walking pace. Seldom do I hear people in the street say, oh it's starting to snow if I walk in this direction I can get away from it into milder weather.



[emoji106]

The brisk walking pace is real for monohulls. We had to make a decision on Tuesday to run from Miami. The run only succeeded with effort, some risk, and a lot of timely information provided by forum members.

We ran to a safer location.

No surge (~ 14 feet up)
No fetch (7 feet from shore)
No current
Wind blocked
Limited risk of damage from other boats despite the pictures you see of island harbors.
Supportive community around us.
We've been offered a house to use.

98 people have been amazing to us during this journey and I'll always remember them while I try to forget the 2 who weren't.

Satisfied with the choices so far but we'll have to see how they appear in hindsight.

Miami just got a tornado warning. Glad I'm not there.

[john61ct]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

John,

I hardly think of what my wife and I have been doing over the past five days as risking our lives to save our boat. It's just common sense to get out of the way of a well-forecast storm or potentially dangerous situation.

But I believe the point you're actually trying to make.... is that common sense might not be as common as it once was, when natural selection culled the herd instead of the government propping up a more dull and lazy flock.

Ken

In the context of my other statements, it is, not for you but for the many not-really sailors with not-ready boats.

Getting in your car to commute to work is as well, this example a bit more.

And not only fear, also just inertia, the effort required for the Indiana dentist to rearrange his busy life, get on a plane, get the boat and crew together to go out on the water for a much longer voyage than the usual day sail, etc.

why bother? that's what insurance is for